Exposure of wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to sea-level rise in the Mediterranean.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to cause major changes to coastal wetlands, which are among the world's most vulnerable ecosystems and are critical for nonbreeding waterbirds. Because strategies for adaptation to SLR, such as nature-based solutions and designation of protected areas, can locally reduce the negative effects of coastal flooding under SLR on coastal wetlands, it is crucial to prioritize adaptation efforts, especially for wetlands of international importance for biodiversity. We assessed the exposure of coastal wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to projected SLR along the Mediterranean coasts of 8 countries by modeling future coastal flooding under 7 scenarios of SLR by 2100 (from 44- to 161-cm rise) with a static inundation approach. Exposure to coastal flooding under future SLR was assessed for 938 Mediterranean coastal sites (≤30 km from the coastline) where 145 species of nonbreeding birds were monitored as part of the International Waterbird Census and for which the monitoring area was delineated by a polygon (64.3% of the coastal sites monitored in the Mediterranean region). Thirty-four percent of sites were threatened by future SLR, even under the most optimistic scenarios. Protected study sites and study sites of international importance for waterbirds were, respectively, 1.5 and 2 times more exposed to SLR than the other sites under the most optimistic scenario. Accordingly, we advocate for the development of a prioritization scheme to be applied to these wetlands for the implementation of strategies for adaptation to SLR to anticipate the effects of coastal flooding. Our study provides major guidance for conservation planning under global change in several countries of the Mediterranean region.

Exposición de los humedales de importancia para las aves acuáticas no reproductoras al incremento del nivel del mar en el Mediterráneo Resumen Se espera que el incremento en el nivel del mar (INM) cause cambios importantes en los humedales costeros, los cuales se encuentran entre los ecosistemas más vulnerables y son críticos para las aves acuáticas no reproductoras. Es crucial la priorización de los esfuerzos de adaptación, especialmente en los humedales con importancia internacional para la biodiversidad, ya que las estrategias de adaptación ante el INM, como las soluciones basadas en la naturaleza y la designación de áreas protegidas, pueden reducir localmente los efectos negativos de las inundaciones costeras por INM en los humedales costeros. Evaluamos la exposición de los humedales costeros con importancia para las aves acuáticas no reproductoras ante el INM proyectado en las costas del Mediterráneo en ocho países con un modelo de inundaciones costeras en el futuro bajo siete escenarios de INM para el año 2100 (de 44 a 161 cm) con un enfoque de inundación estática. Evaluamos la exposición a las inundaciones costeras bajo el INM futuro en 938 sitios costeros del Mediterráneo (≤ 30 km a partir de la costa), en donde monitoreamos a 145 especies de aves no reproductoras como parte del Censo Internacional de Aves Acuáticas y para los cuales el área de monitoreo estuvo delineada con un polígono (64.3% de los sitios costeros monitoreados en la región Mediterránea). El 34% de los sitios se vio amenazado por el INM en el futuro, incluso con los escenarios más optimistas. Los sitios de estudio protegidos y los sitios de estudio de importancia internacional para las aves acuáticas estuvieron expuestos 1.5 y 2 veces más al INM que otros sitios con el escenario más optimista. De acuerdo con esto, abogamos por el desarrollo de un esquema de priorización para aplicarse en estos humedales para la implementación de estrategias de adaptación al INM para anticipar los efectos de las inundaciones costeras. Nuestro estudio proporciona información importante para la planeación de la conservación bajo el cambio global en varios de los países del Mediterráneo.

The future for Mediterranean wetlands: 50 key issues and 50 important conservation research questions.

Wetlands are critically important for biodiversity and human wellbeing, but face a range of challenges. This is especially true in the Mediterranean region, where wetlands support endemic and threatened species and remain integral to human societies, but have been severely degraded in recent decades. Here, in order to raise awareness of future challenges and opportunities for Mediterranean wetlands, and to inform proactive research and management, we identified (a) 50 key issues that might affect Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050, and (b) 50 important research questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on the conservation of Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050. We gathered ideas through an online survey and review of recent literature. A diverse assessment panel prioritised ideas through an iterative, anonymised, Delphi-like process of scoring, voting and discussion. The prioritised issues included some that are already well known but likely to have a large impact on Mediterranean wetlands in the next 30 years (e.g. the accumulation of dams and reservoirs, plastic pollution and weak governance), and some that are currently overlooked in the context of Mediterranean wetlands (e.g. increasing desalination capacity and development of antimicrobial resistance). Questions largely focused on how best to carry out conservation interventions, or understanding the impacts of threats to inform conservation decision-making. This analysis will support research, policy and practice related to environmental conservation and sustainable development in the Mediterranean, and provides a model for similar analyses elsewhere in the world. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-020-01743-1.

Antagonistic effect of natural habitat conversion on community adjustment to climate warming in nonbreeding waterbirds.

Although the impacts of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity have been widely documented, their joint effects remain poorly understood. We evaluated how nonbreeding waterbird communities adjust to climate warming along a gradient of land-use change. Using midwinter waterbird counts (132 species) at 164 major nonbreeding sites in 22 Mediterranean countries, we assessed the changes in species composition from 1991 to 2010, relative to thermal niche position and breadth, in response to regional and local winter temperature anomalies and conversion of natural habitats. We observed a low-level, nonsignificant community adjustment to the temperature increase where natural habitat conversion occurred. At the sites affected by natural habitat conversion, the relative increase of warm-dwelling species in response to climate warming was 6 times lower and the relative species decline was 3 times higher than in the sites without natural habitat conversion. We found no evidence of community adjustment to climate warming when natural habitat conversion was >5% over 15 years. This strong negative effect suggests an antagonistic interaction between climate warming and habitat change. These results underline the importance of habitat conservation in community adjustment to climate warming.

Efecto Antagonista de la Conversión de Hábitats Naturales sobre el Ajuste Comunitario ante el Calentamiento Climático en Aves Acuáticas No Reproductoras Resumen Aunque el impacto de los cambios del clima y del uso de suelo sobre la biodiversidad está ampliamente documentado, los efectos conjuntos de estos cambios todavía no están entendidos del todo. Evaluamos cómo las comunidades no reproductoras de aves acuáticas se ajustan al calentamiento climático a la par de un gradiente de cambio de uso de suelo. Usamos conteos de aves acuáticas (132 especies) realizados en pleno invierno en 164 sitios no reproductores importantes en 22 países mediterráneos, evaluamos los cambios en la composición entre 1991 y 2010 en relación a la posición termal y a la amplitud del nicho en respuesta a las anomalías en la temperatura invernal local y a la conversión de hábitats naturales. Observamos un ajuste comunitario no significativo de bajo nivel al incremento de la temperatura en los lugares en donde ocurrió la conversión del hábitat natural. En los sitios afectados por la conversión del hábitat natural, el incremento relativo de las especies de hábitats cálidos como respuesta al calentamiento climático fue seis veces más bajo y la declinación relativa de especies fue tres veces más alto que en los sitios sin conversión del hábitat natural. No encontramos evidencias del ajuste comunitario al calentamiento climático cuando la conversión del hábitat natural fue >5% durante 15 años. Este efecto negativo pronunciado sugiere una interacción antagonista entre el calentamiento climático y el cambio del hábitat. Estos resultados remarcan la importancia que la conservación del hábitat tiene para el ajuste comunitario ante el calentamiento climático.

Estimating biodiversity changes in the Camargue wetlands: An expert knowledge approach.

Mediterranean wetlands are critical strongholds for biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem functions and services; yet, they are being severely degraded by a number of socio-economic drivers and pressures, including climate change. Moreover, we still lack comprehensive understanding of the extent to which biodiversity loss in Mediterranean wetlands will accelerate change in ecosystem processes. Here, we evaluate how changes in biodiversity can alter the ecosystem of the Camargue (southern France). We collected data on species presence/absence, trends and abundance over a 40-year period by combining observations from the scholarly literature with insights derived from expert knowledge. In total, we gathered more than 1500 estimates of presence/absence, over 1400 estimates of species abundance, and about 1400 estimates of species trends for eight taxonomic groups, i.e. amphibians, reptiles, breeding birds, fish, mammals, dragonflies (odonates), orthopterans and vascular plants. Furthermore, we used information on recently arrived species and invasive species to identify compositional changes across multiple taxa. Complementing targeted literature searches with expert knowledge allowed filling important gaps regarding the status and trends of biodiversity in the Camargue. Species trend data revealed sharp population declines in amphibians, odonates and orthopterans, while birds and plants experienced an average increase in abundance between the 1970s and the 2010s. The general increasing trends of novel and invasive species is suggested as an explanation for the changing abundance of birds and plants. While the observed declines in certain taxa reflect the relative failure of the protection measures established in the Camargue, the increasing exposure to novel and invasive species reveal major changes in the community structure of the different taxonomic groups. This study is the first attempt to assess changes in biodiversity in the Camargue using an expert knowledge approach, and can help manage the uncertainties and complexities associated with rapid social-ecological change in other Mediterranean wetlands.

When Common Birds Became Rare: Historical Records Shed Light on Long-Term Responses of Bird Communities to Global Change in the Largest Wetland of France.

Many species have suffered large population declines due to the anthropogenic influence on ecosystems. Understanding historical population trends is essential for informing best efforts to preserve species. We propose a new method to reconstruct the past structure of a regional species pool, based on historical naturalist literature. Qualitative information collected from annotated checklists and reports can be relevant to identify major long-term community changes. We reviewed ornithological literature on the Camargue, the largest wetland in France. We reconstructed the entire breeding bird community from 1830 to 2009 and translated historical data into semi-quantitative data. This data permitted a calculation of a Community Commonness Index to measure the average level of abundance of species in a community. The Community Specialization and Community Temperature Indices were used to evaluate the potential long-term impact of land-use and climate changes on the composition of the regional bird species pool. We found a decrease in average abundance and specialization between 1950 and 1989, suggesting that changes in land-use negatively impacted the structure and composition of the local bird community by reducing species abundance and removing habitat-specialists (e.g. Southern Grey Shrike, Greater Short-toed Lark). These results are likely to be linked with a major loss of natural habitats in the Camargue between 1942 and 1984 when natural areas and traditional farmland were converted into intensive cultivated lands. We also found fluctuations among species with high versus low temperature preference. However, long-term effects of climate change on the bird community might be blurred by the impact of land-use changes. Overall, our results contrast with those obtained from well-monitored colonial waterbirds showing long-term increases. Our results plead for a more regular use of historical naturalist data when examining long-term changes in species communities as they allow the establishment of an older temporal point of reference and consideration of species not covered by traditional monitoring schemes.

The evolutionary radiation of Arvicolinae rodents (voles and lemmings): relative contribution of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA phylogenies.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial and nuclear genes have generally been employed for different purposes in molecular systematics, the former to resolve relationships within recently evolved groups and the latter to investigate phylogenies at a deeper level. In the case of rapid and recent evolutionary radiations, mitochondrial genes like cytochrome b (CYB) are often inefficient for resolving phylogenetic relationships. One of the best examples is illustrated by Arvicolinae rodents (Rodentia; Muridae), the most impressive mammalian radiation of the Northern Hemisphere which produced voles, lemmings and muskrats. Here, we compare the relative contribution of a nuclear marker--the exon 10 of the growth hormone receptor (GHR) gene--to the one of the mitochondrial CYB for inferring phylogenetic relationships among the major lineages of arvicoline rodents. RESULTS: The analysis of GHR sequences improves the overall resolution of the Arvicolinae phylogeny. Our results show that the Caucasian long-clawed vole (Prometheomys schaposnikowi) is one of the basalmost arvicolines, and confirm that true lemmings (Lemmus) and collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx) are not closely related as suggested by morphology. Red-backed voles (Myodini) are found as the sister-group of a clade encompassing water vole (Arvicola), snow vole (Chionomys), and meadow voles (Microtus and allies). Within the latter, no support is recovered for the generic recognition of Blanfordimys, Lasiopodomys, Neodon, and Phaiomys as suggested by morphology. Comparisons of parameter estimates for branch lengths, base composition, among sites rate heterogeneity, and GTR relative substitution rates indicate that CYB sequences consistently exhibit more heterogeneity among codon positions than GHR. By analyzing the contribution of each codon position to node resolution, we show that the apparent higher efficiency of GHR is due to their third positions. Although we focus on speciation events spanning the last 10 million years (Myr), CYB sequences display highly saturated codon positions contrary to the nuclear exon. Lastly, variable length bootstrap predicts a significant increase in resolution of arvicoline phylogeny through the sequencing of nuclear data in an order of magnitude three to five times greater than the size of GHR exon 10. CONCLUSION: Our survey provides a first resolved gene tree for Arvicolinae. The comparison of CYB and GHR phylogenetic efficiency supports recent assertions that nuclear genes are useful for resolving relationships of recently evolved animals. The superiority of nuclear exons may reside both in (i) less heterogeneity among sites, and (ii) the presence of highly informative sites in third codon positions, that evolve rapidly enough to accumulate synapomorphies, but slow enough to avoid substitutional saturation.

Ecomorphological diversification among South American spiny rats (Rodentia; Echimyidae): a phylogenetic and chronological approach.

The phylogeny of South American spiny rats (Rodentia; Echimyidae) was studied using the exon 28 of the von Willebrand Factor nuclear gene (vWF). Sequences were analysed separately and in combination with a mitochondrial dataset (cyt b, 12S and 16S rRNAs) used in previous publications. The basal polytomy of echimyids was partially resolved and unexpected intergeneric clades were recovered. Thus, the intimate nested position of Myocastor within echimyids is evidenced. A well-supported clade is identified, including all the arboreal genera, and a group formed by Myocastor, Thrichomys, and Proechimys+Hoplomys. The clustering of Euryzygomatomys+Clyomys with Trinomys is also suggested. On the opposite, the phylogenetic position of Capromys as well as the relationships among arboreal genera remain unclear. Molecular divergence times were estimated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock and suggest a Middle Miocene origin for most of modern genera. The ecomorphological diversification of echimyids is discussed in the light of these new results and past environmental modifications in South America.