North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation controlled by Gulf Stream fronts.

The North Atlantic Ocean hosts the largest volume of global subtropical mode waters (STMWs) in the world, which serve as heat, carbon and oxygen silos in the ocean interior. STMWs are formed in the Gulf Stream region where thermal fronts are pervasive and result in feedback with the atmosphere. However, their roles in STMW formation have been overlooked. Using eddy-resolving global climate simulations, we find that suppressing local frontal-scale ocean-to-atmosphere (FOA) feedback leads to STMW formation being reduced almost by half. This is because FOA feedback enlarges STMW outcropping, attributable to the mixed layer deepening associated with cumulative excessive latent heat loss due to higher wind speeds and greater air-sea humidity contrast driven by the Gulf Stream fronts. Such enhanced heat loss overshadows the stronger restratification induced by vertical eddies and turbulent heat transport, making STMW colder and heavier. With more realistic representation of FOA feedback, the eddy-present/rich coupled global climate models reproduce the observed STMWs much better than the eddy-free ones. Such improvement in STMW production cannot be achieved, even with the oceanic resolution solely refined but without coupling to the overlying atmosphere in oceanic general circulation models. Our findings highlight the need to resolve FOA feedback to ameliorate the common severe underestimation of STMW and associated heat and carbon uptakes in earth system models.

Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming.

Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter1-3, whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer4-7. Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific6,7, enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture8-13. Future changes to multi-year-long La Niña events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings14, we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Niña ranging from 19 ± 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 ± 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Niño warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Niña to persist into a second-year La Niña. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Niña episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.

Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate.

Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models' ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs.

Oceanic mesoscale eddies as crucial drivers of global marine heatwaves.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme warm water events in the ocean, exerting devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. A comprehensive knowledge of physical processes controlling MHW life cycles is pivotal to improve MHW forecast capacity, yet it is still lacking. Here, we use a historical simulation from a global eddy-resolving climate model with improved representation of MHWs, and show that heat flux convergence by oceanic mesoscale eddies acts as a dominant driver of MHW life cycles over most parts of the global ocean. In particular, the mesoscale eddies make an important contribution to growth and decay of MHWs, whose characteristic spatial scale is comparable or even larger than that of mesoscale eddies. The effect of mesoscale eddies is spatially heterogeneous, becoming more dominant in the western boundary currents and their extensions, the Southern Ocean, as well as the eastern boundary upwelling systems. This study reveals the crucial role of mesoscale eddies in controlling the global MHW life cycles and highlights that using eddy-resolving ocean models is essential, albeit not necessarily fully sufficient, for accurate MHW forecasts.

Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global climates. Under transient greenhouse warming, models project increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability of both ENSO regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal variability remains unknown for either regime. Here we find increased EP-ENSO SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6, more than a decade earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested without separating the two regimes. The earlier EP-ENSO emergence results from a stronger increase in EP-ENSO rainfall response, which boosts the signal of increased SST variability, and is enhanced by ENSO non-linear atmospheric feedback. Thus, increased ENSO SST variability under greenhouse warming is likely to emerge first in the eastern than central Pacific, and decades earlier than previously anticipated.

Growth of ocean thermal energy conversion resources under greenhouse warming regulated by oceanic eddies.

The concept of utilizing a large temperature difference (>20 °C) between the surface and deep seawater to generate electricity, known as the ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), provides a renewable solution to fueling our future. However, it remains poorly assessed how the OTEC resources will respond to future climate change. Here, we find that the global OTEC power potential is projected to increase by 46% around the end of this century under a high carbon emission scenario, compared to its present-day level. The augmented OTEC power potential due to the rising sea surface temperature is partially offset by the deep ocean warming. The offsetting effect is more evident in the Atlantic Ocean than Pacific and Indian Oceans. This is mainly attributed to the weakening of mesoscale eddy-induced upward heat transport, suggesting an important role of mesoscale eddies in regulating the response of thermal stratification and OTEC power potential to greenhouse warming.

Greenhouse warming intensifies north tropical Atlantic climate variability.

Variability of North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), characterized by a near-uniform warming at its positive phase, is a consequential mode of climate variability. Modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation, NTA warm anomalies tend to induce La Niña events, droughts in Northeast Brazil, increased frequency of extreme hurricanes, and phytoplankton blooms in the Guinea Dome. Future changes of NTA variability could have profound socioeconomic impacts yet remain unknown. Here, we reveal a robust intensification of NTA variability under greenhouse warming. This intensification mainly arises from strengthening of ENSO-forced Pacific-North American pattern and tropospheric temperature anomalies, as a consequence of an eastward shift of ENSO-induced equatorial Pacific convection and of increased ENSO variability, which enhances ENSO influence by reinforcing the associated wind and moist convection anomalies. The intensification of NTA SST variability suggests increased occurrences of extreme NTA events, with far-reaching ramifications.

Maintenance of mid-latitude oceanic fronts by mesoscale eddies.

Oceanic fronts associated with strong western boundary current extensions vent a vast amount of heat into the atmosphere, anchoring mid-latitude storm tracks and facilitating ocean carbon sequestration. However, it remains unclear how the surface heat reservoir is replenished by ocean processes to sustain the atmospheric heat uptake. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we find that the vertical heat transport by ocean mesoscale eddies acts as an important heat supplier to the surface ocean in frontal regions. This vertical eddy heat transport is not accounted for by the prevailing inviscid and adiabatic ocean dynamical theories such as baroclinic instability and frontogenesis but is tightly related to the atmospheric forcing. Strong surface cooling associated with intense winds in winter promotes turbulent mixing in the mixed layer, destructing the vertical shear of mesoscale eddies. The restoring of vertical shear induces an ageostrophic secondary circulation transporting heat from the subsurface to surface ocean.

Weakening Atlantic Niño-Pacific connection under greenhouse warming.

Sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial eastern Atlantic, which is referred to as an Atlantic Niño (Niña) at its warm (cold) phase and peaks in boreal summer, dominates the interannual variability in the equatorial Atlantic. By strengthening of the Walker circulation, an Atlantic Niño favors a Pacific La Niña, which matures in boreal winter, providing a precursory memory for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. How this Atlantic impact responds to greenhouse warming is unclear. Here, we show that greenhouse warming leads to a weakened influence from the Atlantic Niño/Niña on the Pacific ENSO. In response to anomalous equatorial Atlantic heating, ascending over the equatorial Atlantic is weaker due to an increased tropospheric stability in the mean climate, resulting in a weaker impact on the Pacific Ocean. Thus, as greenhouse warming continues, Pacific ENSO is projected to be less affected by the Atlantic Niño/Niña and more challenging to predict.

Pantropical climate interactions.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Especially noteworthy is the multidecadal Atlantic warming that began in the late 1990s, because recent research suggests that it has influenced Indo-Pacific climate, the character of the ENSO cycle, and the hiatus in global surface warming. Discovery of these pantropical interactions provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate variability in the current climate and for refining projections of future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios.

Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming.

Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Niño. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 °C and ideally below 1.5 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear. Here we show that the frequency increases linearly as the warming proceeds, and doubles at 1.5 °C warming from the pre-industrial level (statistically significant above the 90% confidence level), underscored by a strong intermodel agreement with 11 out of 13 models producing an increase. However, in sharp contrast to a continuous increase in extreme El Niño frequency long after GMT stabilisation, the extreme pIOD frequency peaks as the GMT stabilises. The contrasting response corresponds to a 50% reduction in frequency of an extreme El Niño preceded by an extreme pIOD from that projected under a business-as-usual scenario.

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.