Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone.

Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen's underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen's incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel farther before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.

Epidemiology of Ebola Virus Disease in the Western Area Region of Sierra Leone, 2014-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Western Area (WA) of Sierra Leone including the capital, Freetown, experienced an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola from 2014 to 2015. At the onset of the epidemic, there was little information about the epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and risk factors in urban settings as previous outbreaks were limited to rural/semi-rural settings. This study, therefore, aimed to describe the epidemiology of the outbreak and the factors which had most impact on the transmission of the epidemic and whether there were different drivers from those previously described in rural settings. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive epidemiology study in WA, Sierra Leone using secondary data from the National Ebola outbreak database. We also reviewed the Ebola situation reports, response strategy documents, and other useful documents. RESULTS: A total of 4,955 Ebola cases were identified between June 2014 and November 2015, although there were reports of cases occurring in WA toward end of May. All wards were affected, and Waterloo Area I (Ward 330), the capital city of Western Area Rural District, recorded the highest numbers of cases (580) and deaths (236). Majority of cases (63.4%) and deaths (66.8%) were in WA Urban District (WAU); 44 cases were imported from other provinces. Only 20% of cases had a history of contact with an Ebola case, and more than 30% were death alerts. Equal numbers of males and females were infected, and very few cases (3.2%) were health workers. Overall, transmission was through contact with infected individuals, and intense transmission occurred at the community level. In WAU, transmission was mostly between neighbors and among inhabitants of shared accommodations. The drivers of transmission included high population movement to and from WA, overcrowding, fear and lack of trust in the response, and negative community behaviors. Transmission was mostly through contact and with limited transmission through sex and breast milk. CONCLUSION: The unprecedented outbreak in WA was attributed to delayed detection, inadequate preparedness and response, intense population movements, overcrowding, and unresponsive communities. Anticipation, strengthening preparedness for early detection, and swift and effective response remains critical in mitigating a potential urban explosion of similar future outbreaks.

Contact Tracing during an Outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease in the Western Area Districts of Sierra Leone: Lessons for Future Ebola Outbreak Response.

INTRODUCTION: Contact tracing is a critical strategy required for timely prevention and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks. Available evidence suggests that poor contact tracing was a driver of the EVD outbreak in West Africa, including Sierra Leone. In this article, we answered the question as to whether EVD contact tracing, as practiced in Western Area (WA) districts of Sierra Leone from 2014 to 2015, was effective. The goal is to describe contact tracing and identify obstacles to its effective implementation. METHODS: Mixed methods comprising secondary data analysis of the EVD case and contact tracing data sets collected from WA during the period from 2014 to 2015, key informant interviews of contact tracers and their supervisors, and a review of available reports on contact tracing were implemented to obtain data for this study. RESULTS: During the study period, 3,838 confirmed cases and 32,706 contacts were listed in the viral hemorrhagic fever and contact databases for the district (mean 8.5 contacts per case). Only 22.1% (852) of the confirmed cases in the study area were listed as contacts at the onset of their illness, which indicates incomplete identification and tracing of contacts. Challenges associated with effective contact tracing included lack of community trust, concealing of exposure information, political interference with recruitment of tracers, inadequate training of contact tracers, and incomplete EVD case and contact database. While the tracers noted the usefulness of community quarantine in facilitating their work, they also reported delayed or irregular supply of basic needs, such as food and water, which created resistance from the communities. CONCLUSION: Multiple gaps in contact tracing attributed to a variety of factors associated with implementers, and communities were identified as obstacles that impeded timely control of the EVD outbreak in the WA of Sierra Leone. In future outbreaks, early community engagement and participation in contact tracing, establishment of appropriate mechanisms for selection, adequate training and supervision of qualified contact tracers, establishment of a well-managed and complete contact tracing database, and provision of basic needs to quarantined contacts are recommended as measures to enhance effective contact tracing.

Epidemiology of Ebola virus disease transmission among health care workers in Sierra Leone, May to December 2014: a retrospective descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Anecdotal evidence suggests that much of the continuing infection of health care workers (HCWs) with Ebola virus during the current outbreak in Sierra Leone has occurred in settings other than Ebola isolation units, and it is likely that some proportion of acquisition by HCWs occurs outside the workplace. There is a critical need to define more precisely the pathways of Ebola infection among HCWs, to optimise measures for reducing risk during current and future outbreaks. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of Ebola acquisition among health workers in Sierra Leone during May-December 2014. The data used were obtained mainly from the national Ebola database, a cross-sectional survey conducted through administration of a structured questionnaire to infected HCWs, and key informant interviews of select health stakeholders. RESULTS: A total of 293 HCWs comprising 277 (95 %) confirmed, 6 (2 %) probable, and 10 (3 %) suspected cases of infection with Ebola virus were enrolled in the study from nine districts of the country. Over half of infected HCWs (153) were nurses; others included laboratory staff (19, 6.5 %), doctors (9, 3.1 %), cleaners and porters (9, 3.1 %), Community Health Officers (8, 2.7 %), and pharmacists (2, 0.7 %). HCW infections were mainly reported from the Western Area (24.9 %), Kailahun (18.4 %), Kenema (17.7 %), and Bombali (13.3 %) districts. Almost half of the infected HCWs (120, 47.4 %) believed that their exposure occurred in a hospital setting. Others believed that they were exposed in the home (48, 19 %), at health centres (45, 17.8 %), or at other types of health facilities (13, 5.1 %). Only 27 (10.7 %) of all HCW infections were associated with Ebola virus disease (EVD) isolation units. Over half (60 %, 150) of infected HCWs said they had been trained in infection prevention and control prior to their infection, whereas 34 % (85) reported that they had not been so trained. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the perception that most HCW infections are associated with general health care and home settings and not with dedicated EVD settings, which should provide substantial reassurance to HCWs that measures in place at dedicated EVD facilities generally provide substantial protection when fully adhered to.