Data-Driven Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Dynamics: A Review.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) threatens animal health and leads to considerable economic losses worldwide. Progress towards minimizing both veterinary and financial impact of the disease will be made with targeted disease control policies. To move towards targeted control, specific targets and detailed control strategies must be defined. One approach for identifying targets is to use mathematical and simulation models quantified with accurate and fine-scale data to design and evaluate alternative control policies. Nevertheless, published models of FMDV vary in modelling techniques and resolution of data incorporated. In order to determine which models and data sources contain enough detail to represent realistic control policy alternatives, we performed a systematic literature review of all FMDV dynamical models that use host data, disease data or both data types. For the purpose of evaluating modelling methodology, we classified models by control strategy represented, resolution of models and data, and location modelled. We found that modelling methodology has been well developed to the point where multiple methods are available to represent detailed and contact-specific transmission and targeted control. However, detailed host and disease data needed to quantify these models are only available from a few outbreaks. To address existing challenges in data collection, novel data sources should be considered and integrated into models of FMDV transmission and control. We suggest modelling multiple endemic areas to advance local control and global control and better understand FMDV transmission dynamics. With incorporation of additional data, models can assist with both the design of targeted control and identification of transmission drivers across geographic boundaries.

Quantitative assessment of the equine hoof using digital radiography and magnetic resonance imaging.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Evaluation of laminitis cases relies on radiographic measurements of the equine foot. Reference values have not been established for all layers of the foot. OBJECTIVES: To establish normal hoof wall and sole measurements using digital radiography (DR) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to document tissue components present in the dorsal hoof wall and solar layers seen on DR. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational case-control study. METHODS: Digital radiography and MRI were performed on 50 cadaver front feet from 25 horses subjected to euthanasia for nonlameness-related reasons. Four observers measured hoof wall (dorsal, lateral and medial) and sole thickness (sagittal, lateral and medial) using DR and magnetic resonance images. One observer repeated the measurements 3 times. Inter- and intraobserver correlation was assessed. RESULTS: Digital radiography and MRI measurements for the normal hoof wall and sole were established. Inter- and intraobserver pairwise Pearson's correlation for DR (r>0.98) and MRI measurements (r>0.99) was excellent. Based on MRI, the less radiopaque layer on DR is comprised of the stratum lamellatum and stratum reticulare. CONCLUSIONS: Normal DR and MRI measurements for the hoof wall and sole were established. On DR images, the less radiopaque layer of the foot observed corresponds to the critical tissues injured in laminitis, the strata lamellatum and reticulare. These reference measurements may be used by the clinician to detect soft-tissue changes in the laminitic equine foot and provide a foundation for future research determining changes in these measurements in horses with laminitis.

Use of expert opinion for animal disease decisions: an example of foot-and-mouth disease status designation.

When data representing a preferred measurement of risk cannot be obtained, as is often the case for global animal diseases, decisions that affect millions of people and their animals are typically made based on expert opinion. Expert opinion can be and has been used to address the critical lack of data existing for prevalence and incidence of many global diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, when a conclusion based on expert opinion applies to a topic as sensitive as FMD, which has tremendous economic, political, and social implications, care should be taken to understand the accuracy of and differences in the opinion data. The differences in experts' opinions and the relative accuracy of an expert opinion elicitation for "diagnosing" country-level FMD presence were examined for the years 1997-2003 using Bayesian methods. A formal survey of eight international FMD experts revealed that individual experts had different opinions as to the probability of finding FMD in a country. However, a weighted average of the experts' responses was relatively accurate (91% sensitivity and 85% specificity) at identifying the FMD status of a country, compared to using a method that employed information available from World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The most apparent disagreements between individual experts and available information were found for Indonesia, South Korea, and South America, and, in general, the experts seemed to believe that countries in South Asia were more likely to be positive than other countries that reported FMD cases to OIE. This study highlights new methodology that offers a standardized, quantitative, and systematic means by which expert opinion can be used and assessed.

Analytical epidemiology of genomic variation among Pan Asia strains of foot-and-mouth disease virus.

Genetic data from field isolates of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) have been used to trace the source of recent outbreaks of FMD, to design better vaccines and diagnostic tests for FMDV, and to make conclusions regarding the general variability in the FMDV genome. Though epidemiologic data associated with FMDV isolates are available, these data have been used rarely to explore possible associations of epidemiologic factors with evolution or variation of the FMDV genome. In this study, factors associated with variation in the primary immunogenic peptide gene of FMDV (VP1), for a sample of 147 serotype O, Pan Asia strain sequences were explored using traditional analytical epidemiologic methods: logistic regression and multinomial-response logistic regression. Hypothesized factors included host type (bovine, ovine, buffalo, or porcine) and geographical region (Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Europe). Results of two regression analyses suggest that host type and region, considered to be possible surrogates for host management, may be associated with selection in the VP1 amino acid sequence in FMDV. For example, isolates from cattle and sheep in South Asia appear to converge with a proposed ancestor sequence, whereas isolates from the same species in the Middle East and Southeast Asia appear to diverge. The methods demonstrated here could be used on a more detailed dataset to explore the selective pressure of host immunity on the evolution of FMDV antigens in an endemic setting. More broadly, epidemiologic methods could be applied extensively to molecular data to explore the causes of genomic variation in disease-causing organisms.