Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area.

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

Effect of trade on global aquatic food consumption patterns.

Globalization of fishery products is playing a significant role in shaping the harvesting and use of aquatic foods, but a vigorous debate has focused on whether the trade is a driver of the inequitable distribution of aquatic foods. Here, we develop species-level mass balance and trophic level identification datasets for 174 countries and territories to analyze global aquatic food consumption patterns, trade characteristics, and impacts from 1976 to 2019. We find that per capita consumption of aquatic foods has increased significantly at the global scale, but the human aquatic food trophic level (HATL), i.e., the average trophic level of aquatic food items in the human diet, is declining (from 3.42 to 3.18) because of the considerable increase in low-trophic level aquaculture species output relative to that of capture fisheries since 1976. Moreover, our study finds that trade has contributed to increasing the availability and trophic level of aquatic foods in >60% of the world's countries. Trade has also reduced geographic differences in the HATL among countries over recent decades. We suggest that there are important opportunities to widen the current focus on productivity gains and economic outputs to a more equitable global distribution of aquatic foods.

Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification.

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040-2060) and late (2061-2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.

Pan-Arctic marine biodiversity and species co-occurrence patterns under recent climate.

The Arctic region is experiencing drastic climatic changes bringing about potential ecological shifts. Here, we explored marine biodiversity and potential species associations across eight Arctic marine areas between 2000 and 2019. We compiled species occurrences for a subset of 69 marine taxa (i.e., 26 apex predators and 43 mesopredators) and environmental factors to predict taxon-specific distributions using a multi-model ensemble approach. Arctic-wide temporal trends of species richness increased in the last 20 years and highlighted potential emerging areas of species accrual due to climate-driven species redistribution. Further, regional species associations were dominated by positive co-occurrences among species pairs with high frequencies in the Pacific and Atlantic Arctic areas. Comparative analyses of species richness, community composition, and co-occurrence between high and low summer sea ice concentrations revealed contrasting impacts of and detected areas vulnerable to sea ice changes. In particular, low (high) summer sea ice generally resulted in species gains (loss) in the inflow and loss (gains) in the outflow shelves, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition and therefore potential species associations. Overall, the recent changes in biodiversity and species co-occurrences in the Arctic were driven by pervasive poleward range shifts, especially for wide-ranging apex predators. Our findings highlight the varying regional impacts of warming and sea ice loss on Arctic marine communities and provide important insights into the vulnerability of Arctic marine areas to climate change.

A meta-analysis of environmental responses to freshwater ecosystem restoration in China (1987-2018).

Understanding how abiotic and biotic components respond to aquatic ecosystem restoration is pivotal for sustainable development in the face of economic development and global environmental change. However, the post-restoration monitoring and evaluation of aquatic ecosystems across large spatial and temporal scales is underfunded or not well documented, especially outside of Europe and North America. We present a meta-analysis of abiotic and biotic indices to quantify post-restoration (2 months-13 years) effects from reported aquatic restoration projects throughout the China-mainland, incorporating 39 lentic and 36 lotic ecosystems. Decreases in dissolved nutrients (total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus) post-restoration were rapid, but tended to slow down after about 9.3 years. Response ratios summarizing biodiversity responses (incorporating phytoplankton, invertebrates, vascular plants, fish and birds) typically lagged behind abiotic changes, suggesting longer timescales are needed for biotic indices to recover. Time since restoration interacted with lentic project size showing that, even with the same proportional efforts of restoration, larger lentic ecosystems responded much more slowly than smaller ones. Spatial heterogeneity, reflecting the effects of different restoration approaches (e.g., sewage interception, polluted sediment dredging, artificial wetlands, etc.), had a significantly stronger effect on biotic than abiotic indices, particularly in rivers compared to standing waters. This reflects the complexity of fluvial ecosystem dynamics and hints at a limitation in the reinstatement of ecological processes in these systems to overcome issues such as dispersal limitations. Overall, the different timelines and processes by which abiotic and biotic indices recover after restoration should be taken into account when defining restoration targets and monitoring programs. Our study illustrates the value of long-term aquatic ecosystem monitoring, especially in China given the scale and magnitude of ongoing restoration investments in the country.

Climate, currents and species traits contribute to early stages of marine species redistribution.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming 'hotspot' regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.

Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity.

The vulnerability of marine biodiversity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening biodiversity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine biodiversity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of biodiversity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine biodiversity under climate change.

Study protocol: International joint research project 'climate change resilience of Indigenous socioecological systems' (RISE).

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic changes in the environment are increasingly threatening the sustainability of socioecological systems on a global scale. As stewards of the natural capital of over a quarter of the world's surface area, Indigenous Peoples (IPs), are at the frontline of these changes. Indigenous socioecological systems (ISES) are particularly exposed and sensitive to exogenous changes because of the intimate bounds of IPs with nature. Traditional food systems (TFS) represent one of the most prominent components of ISES, providing not only diverse and nutritious food but also critical socioeconomic, cultural, and spiritual assets. However, a proper understanding of how future climate change may compromise TFS through alterations of related human-nature interactions is still lacking. Climate change resilience of indigenous socioecological systems (RISE) is a new joint international project that aims to fill this gap in knowledge. METHODS AND DESIGN: RISE will use a comparative case study approach coupling on-site socioeconomic, nutritional, and ecological surveys of the target ISES of Sakha (Republic of Sakha, Russian Federation) and Karen (Kanchanaburi, Thailand) people with statistical models projecting future changes in the distribution and composition of traditional food species under contrasting climate change scenarios. The results presented as alternative narratives of future climate change impacts on TFS will be integrated into a risk assessment framework to explore potential vulnerabilities of ISES operating through altered TFS, and possible adaptation options through stakeholder consultation so that lessons learned can be applied in practice. DISCUSSION: By undertaking a comprehensive analysis of the socioeconomic and nutritional contributions of TFS toward the sustainability of ISES and projecting future changes under alternative climate change scenarios, RISE is strategically designed to deliver novel and robust science that will contribute towards the integration of Indigenous issues within climate change and sustainable agendas while generating a forum for discussion among Indigenous communities and relevant stakeholders. Its goal is to promote positive co-management and regional development through sustainability and climate change adaptation.

Timescale mediates the effects of environmental controls on water temperature in mid- to low-order streams.

Adequate management and conservation of instream thermal habitats requires an understanding of the control that different landscape features exert on water temperatures. Previous studies have extensively explored the influence of spatial scale on these relationships. However, the effect of temporal scale remains poorly understood. Here, we use paired air-water mean daily and monthly summer temperatures collected over four years from 130 monitoring stations in Japanese mid- to low-order streams to investigate whether perceived effects of different environmental controls on water temperature are dependent on the timescale of the temperature data, and whether those dependencies are related to the spatial scale at which these controls operate. We found a clear pattern for the significant cooling effect, high relative importance and strong dominance exerted by the riparian forest cover on daily temperatures at the reach scale becoming dampened by concomitant increases associated to the proportion of volcanic geology on monthly temperatures at the catchment scale. These results highlight the importance of contextualizing the effects of environmental controls on water temperatures to the timescale of the analysis. Such dependencies are particularly important for the management and conservation of instream thermal habitats in a rapidly warming world.

Expanding ocean food production under climate change.

As the human population and demand for food grow1, the ocean will be called on to provide increasing amounts of seafood. Although fisheries reforms and advances in offshore aquaculture (hereafter 'mariculture') could increase production2, the true future of seafood depends on human responses to climate change3. Here we investigated whether coordinated reforms in fisheries and mariculture could increase seafood production per capita under climate change. We find that climate-adaptive fisheries reforms will be necessary but insufficient to maintain global seafood production per capita, even with aggressive reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. However, the potential for sustainable mariculture to increase seafood per capita is vast and could increase seafood production per capita under all but the most severe emissions scenario. These increases are contingent on fisheries reforms, continued advances in feed technology and the establishment of effective mariculture governance and best practices. Furthermore, dramatically curbing emissions is essential for reducing inequities, increasing reform efficacy and mitigating risks unaccounted for in our analysis. Although climate change will challenge the ocean's ability to meet growing food demands, the ocean could produce more food than it does currently through swift and ambitious action to reduce emissions, reform capture fisheries and expand sustainable mariculture operations.

Predators mitigate the destabilising effects of heatwaves on multitrophic stream communities.

Amidst the global extinction crisis, climate change will expose ecosystems to more frequent and intense extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves. Yet, whether predator species loss-a prevailing characteristic of the extinction crisis-will exacerbate the ecological consequences of extreme climatic events remains largely unknown. Here, we show that the loss of predator species can interact with heatwaves to moderate the compositional stability of ecosystems. We exposed multitrophic stream communities, with and without a dominant predator species, to realistic current and future heatwaves and found that heatwaves destabilised algal communities by homogenising them in space. However, this happened only when the predator was absent. Additional heatwave impacts on multiple aspects of stream communities, including changes to the structure of algal and macroinvertebrate communities, as well as total algal biomass and its temporal variability, were not apparent during heatwaves and emerged only after the heatwaves had passed. Taken together, our results suggest that the ecological consequences of heatwaves can amplify over time as their impacts propagate through biological interaction networks, but the presence of predators can help to buffer such impacts. These findings underscore the importance of conserving trophic structure, and highlight the potential for species extinctions to amplify the effects of climate change and extreme events.

Mitigation of urbanization effects on aquatic ecosystems by synchronous ecological restoration.

Ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss have been caused by economic booms in developing countries over recent decades. In response, ecosystem restoration projects have been advanced in some countries but the effectiveness of different approaches and indicators at large spatio-temporal scales (i.e., whole catchments) remains poorly understood. This study assessed the effectiveness of a diverse array of 440 aquatic restoration projects including wastewater treatment, constructed wetlands, plant/algae salvage and dredging of contaminated sediments implemented and maintained from 2007 to 2017 across more than 2000 km2 of the northwest Taihu basin (Yixing, China). Synchronized investigations of water quality and invertebrate communities were conducted before and after restoration. Our analysis showed that even though there was rapid urbanization at this time, nutrient concentrations (NH4+-N, TN, TP) and biological indices of benthic invertebrate (taxonomic richness, Shannon diversity, sensitive taxon density) improved significantly across most of the study area. Improvements were associated with the type of restoration project, with projects targeting pollution-sources leading to the clearest ecosystem responses compared with those remediating pollution sinks. However, in some locations, the recovery of biotic communities appears to lag behind nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus), likely reflecting long-distance re-colonization routes for invertebrates given the level of pre-restoration degradation of the catchment. Overall, the study suggests that ecological damage caused by recent rapid economic development in China could potentially be mitigated by massive restoration investments synchronized across whole catchments, although these effects could be expected to be enhanced if urbanization rates were reduced at the same time.

Synergistic effects of warming and eutrophication alert zooplankton predator-prey interactions along the benthic-pelagic interface.

Contemporary evidence suggests that climate change and other co-occurring large-scale environmental changes, such as eutrophication, will have a considerable impact on aquatic communities. However, the interactions of these environmental changes on trophic interactions among zooplankton remain largely unknown. Here we present results of a mesocosm experiment examining how a couple of zooplankton predator and prey taxa with different life-history strategies respond to the combined effect of an increase in temperature (4.5°C) and in eutrophication (phosphorus addition), during the crucial recruiting and growing season. We show that the addition of phosphorus alone significantly weakened the top-down effects by the cyclopoid copepod predators on their rotifer prey. In contrast, warming strengthened the top-down effects from the predator, leading to a reduction in the abundance of the rotifer prey. These effects of warming were enhanced by phosphorus addition. Together, our results demonstrate that warming made plankton prey organisms more susceptible to top-down effects from predators, but reduced their sensitivity to nutrient enrichment. In terms of the phenological effects, warming advanced the termination of diapause for both rotifers and cyclopoid copepods by about 2 weeks, but these temporal shifts, akin for both groups, resulted in no apparent trophic mismatch. Hence, from a future perspective, cyclopoid copepods are likely to benefit more from the combination of nutrient enrichment and climate warming to the detriment of their rotifer prey.

Eutrophication causes invertebrate biodiversity loss and decreases cross-taxon congruence across anthropogenically-disturbed lakes.

Eutrophication is a major problem currently impacting many surface water ecosystems. Impacts of increased nutrient concentrations on biodiversity may differ between different scales, different organism groups, and different trophic states. Surveys at different spatial scales have suggested that biodiversity of different taxa may exhibit significant cross-taxon congruence. In our study, we examined the diversity of zooplankton and zoobenthos across 261 lakes in the Lake Taihu watershed, an area that is undergoing a severe eutrophication process. We tested the cross-taxon congruence in species richness and Shannon-Wiener diversity between zooplankton and zoobenthos along a nutrient gradient across the lakes. Our findings were consistent with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, considering nutrient input as the disturbance. Also, we found significant cross-taxon congruence between zooplankton and zoobenthos diversities. Our results confirmed that excess nutrient levels resulted in diversity loss and community simplification. Zoobenthos were more sensitive to nutrient increases compared with zooplankton, which decreased cross-taxon congruence because these organism groups did not respond similarly to the anthropogenic disturbance.

Marine biodiversity refugia in a climate-sensitive subarctic shelf.

The subarctic shelf of the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is one of the world's most productive marine environments, exposed to drastic climate changes characterized by extreme fluctuations in temperature, sea ice concentration, timing, and duration. These climatic changes elicit profound responses in species distribution, abundance, and community composition. Here, we examined the patterns of alpha and temporal beta diversity of 159 marine taxa (66 vertebrates and 93 invertebrate species) from 29 years (1990-2018) of species observations from the NOAA bottom trawl surveys in the EBS. Based on these data, we identified geographically distinct refugial zones in the northern and southern regions of the middle shelf, defined by high species richness and similarity in community species composition over time. These refugial zones harbor higher frequencies of occurrence for representative taxa relative to the regions outside of refugia. We also explored the primary environmental factors structuring marine biodiversity distributions, which underpinned the importance of the winter sea ice concentration to alpha and temporal beta diversity. The spatial biodiversity distributions between high and low winter sea ice regimes highlighted contrasting signals. In particular, the latter showed elevated species richness compared to the former. Further, the temporal beta diversity between the high and low winter sea ice periods underpinned an overall increase in the compositional similarity of marine communities in the EBS. Despite these spatiotemporal differences in biodiversity distributions, the identified refugia represent safe havens of marine biodiversity in the EBS. Distinguishing these areas can help facilitate conservation and management efforts under accelerated and ongoing climatic changes.

Effects of warming, climate extremes and phosphorus enrichment on the growth, sexual reproduction and propagule carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry of Potamogeton crispus L.

Contemporary evidence suggests that submerged macrophytes are experiencing a global decline due to the multiple compounding anthropogenic stressors impacting shallow lake ecosystems. Eutrophication and climate change are two main widespread, often co-occurring stressors, yet evidence concerning their interactive effects on aquatic plants remains partial and fragmented. Predicting the response of submerged aquatic vegetation to the combined effects of nutrient pollution and compound climate warming (mean + variability) is therefore crucial for the conservation and management of these valuable and vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we present the results of an outdoor mesocosm experiment examining the combined effects of nutrient enrichment (phosphorus addition) and warming (a 4 °C increase in mean temperature above present ambient conditions applied as either a constant increase or a variable increase ranging between 0 and 8 °C to mimic the effect of extreme events but keeping an equivalent total amount of warming) on Potamogeton crispus L. Warming accelerated the growth and senescence of P. crispus suggesting a more important role in maintaining the clear water state in winter-early spring but concomitant to possible earlier turbid states in summer. Warming also consistently advanced the flowering phenology but had no significant effect on flowering duration. There were no significant differences in the life cycle between the two warming treatments, while phosphorus addition also had little effect. However, under phosphorus enrichment, P. crispus increased sexual reproduction investment producing higher seed setting rate per infructescence. In contrast, warming, especially variable warming, may decrease sexual reproduction investment by reducing the number of infructescences. Seed and turion stoichiometry were altered by the combination of warming and phosphorus addition, but the changes were complex and difficult to interpret.

Spatially Structured Environmental Variation Plays a Prominent Role on the Biodiversity of Freshwater Macrophytes Across China.

Different non-mutually exclusive mechanisms interactively shape large-scale diversity patterns. However, our understanding of multi-faceted diversity and their determinants in aquatic ecosystems is far from complete compared to terrestrial ones. Here, we use variation partitioning based on redundancy analysis to analyze the relative contribution of environmental and spatial variables to the patterns of phylogenetic, taxonomic, and functional diversity in macrophyte assemblages across 214 Chinese watersheds. We found extremely high spatial congruence among most aspects of biodiversity, with some important exceptions. We then used variation partitioning to estimate the proportions of variation in macrophyte biodiversity explained by environmental and spatial variables. All diversity facets were optimally explained by spatially structured environmental variables, not the pure environment effect, implying that macrophyte are taxonomically, phylogenetically, and functionally clustered in space, which might be the result of the interaction of environmental and/or evolutionary drives. We demonstrate that macrophytes might face extensive dispersal limitations across watersheds such as topography and habitat fragmentation and availability.

Contemporary changes in structural dynamics and socioeconomic drivers of inland fishery in China.

Dynamics of inland fishery remain poorly understood despite their increasing socioeconomic importance and rapid growth. Here we analyze the changes in the dynamics of Chinese traditional and new inland fisheries by examining 26 years (1991-2016) of reported annual catch and mean trophic level in relation to socioeconomic development in China at provincial level. Results from spatial panel linear models indicate a significant correlation between socioeconomic and fishery variables, strongly suggesting that the development of these fisheries is nested in the socioeconomic context specific to each province. A preference towards higher trophic level species (i.e., investment in quality) is revealed under a status of socioeconomic wealth, while a focus on production (i.e., quantity) is observed when population, and therefore food demand, increases. By providing novel evidence on the links between large-scale dynamics in production and trophic structure of a country's inland fishery and the socioeconomic context driving the fish demand and consumption, our work represents an important contribution towards a broader assessment and management of inland fishery resources.