Use of clinical classifications software to address ICD coding transition in large healthcare databases analyzed via high-dimensional propensity scores.

PURPOSE: The EUPAS26595 study characterized the rate of acute renal failure (ARF) in patients exposed to levetiracetam versus other antiepileptic drugs using healthcare claims data and a high-dimensional propensity score (hd-PS) for confounding adjustment. The data contained several coding systems by design and an update in International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding dictionary. Such coding heterogeneity can affect the performance of hd-PS, and manually coding harmonization is not feasible. Our objective was to explore the impact of code aggregation via Clinical Classifications Software (CCS) on the analysis of a large claims-based database using hd-PS. METHODS: Patients with epilepsy, who were new-users of an antiepileptic drug, were identified from the IBM® MarketScan® Research Databases. We used CCS categories to harmonize coding and compared the results with other alternatives. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were computed using modified Poisson regression model with a robust variance estimator. RESULTS: For January 2008-October 2015 (before ICD update), 34 833 eligible patients initiated levetiracetam and 52 649 initiated a comparator drug; IRR (95% CI) for ARF for the hd-PS analysis was 1.34 (0.72-2.50) without CCS categories and 1.30 (0.71-2.39) with CCS categories. For January 2008-December 2017 (including ICD coding change), 45 672 eligible patients initiated levetiracetam and 64 664 initiated a comparator drug; IRR (95% CI) for the hd-PS analysis was 1.34 (0.78-2.29) without CCS categories and 1.37 (0.80-2.34) with CCS categories. CONCLUSIONS: Using single-level CCS categories to overcome differences in coding provides consistent results and can be used in studies that use large claims data and hd-PS for adjustment.

Reporting of Observational Studies Explicitly Aiming to Emulate Randomized Trials: A Systematic Review.

Importance: Observational (nonexperimental) studies that aim to emulate a randomized trial (ie, the target trial) are increasingly informing medical and policy decision-making, but it is unclear how these studies are reported in the literature. Consistent reporting is essential for quality appraisal, evidence synthesis, and translation of evidence to policy and practice. Objective: To assess the reporting of observational studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial. Evidence Review: We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science for observational studies published between March 2012 and October 2022 that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial of a health or medical intervention. Two reviewers double-screened and -extracted data on study characteristics, key predefined components of the target trial protocol and its emulation (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, treatment assignment, outcome[s], follow-up, causal contrast[s], and analysis plan), and other items related to the target trial emulation. Findings: A total of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial were included. These studies included 26 subfields of medicine, and 168 (84%) were published from January 2020 to October 2022. The aim to emulate a target trial was explicit in 70 study titles (35%). Forty-three studies (22%) reported use of a published reporting guideline (eg, Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology). Eighty-five studies (43%) did not describe all key items of how the target trial was emulated and 113 (57%) did not describe the protocol of the target trial and its emulation. Conclusion and Relevance: In this systematic review of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial, reporting of how the target trial was emulated was inconsistent. A reporting guideline for studies explicitly aiming to emulate a target trial may improve the reporting of the target trial protocols and other aspects of these emulation attempts.

Total neoadjuvant therapy with or without aflibercept in rectal cancer: 3-year results of GEMCAD-1402.

BACKGROUND: The results of the Grupo Español Multidisciplinar en Cáncer Digestivo (GEMCAD)-1402 phase II randomized trial suggested that adding aflibercept to modified fluorouracil, oxaliplatin, and leucovorin (mFOLFOX6) induction, followed by chemoradiation and surgery, could increase the pathological complete response (pCR) rate in patients with high-risk, locally advanced rectal cancer. Here we update results up to 3 years of follow-up and evaluate the predictive value of consensus molecular subtypes identified with immunohistochemistry (IHC). METHODS: Patients with magnetic resonance imaging-defined T3c-d and/or T4 and/or N2 rectal adenocarcinoma in the middle or distal third were randomly assigned to mFOLFOX6 induction, with aflibercept (mF+A; n = 115) or without aflibercept (mF; n = 65), followed by capecitabine plus radiotherapy and surgery. The risk local relapse, distant metastases, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) were estimated at 3 years. Selected samples were classified via IHC into immune-infiltrate, epithelial, or mesenchymal subtypes. RESULTS: mF+A and mF had 3-year DFS of 75.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 66.1% to 82.2%) and 81.5% (95% CI = 69.8% to 89.1%), respectively; 3-year OS of 89.3% (95% CI = 82.0% to 93.8%) and 90.7% (95% CI = 80.6% to 95.7%), respectively; 3-year cumulative local relapse incidences of 5.2% (95% CI = 1.9% to 11.0%) and 6.1% (95% CI = 1.7% to 15.0%), respectively; and 3-year cumulative distant metastases rates of 17.3% (95% CI = 10.9% to 25.5%) and 16.9% (95% CI = 8.7% to 28.2%), respectively. pCRs were achieved in 27.5% (n = 22 of 80) and 0% (n = 0 of 10) of patients with epithelial and mesenchymal subtypes, respectively. CONCLUSION: Adding aflibercept to mFOLFOX6 induction was not associated with improved DFS or OS. Our findings suggested that consensus molecular subtypes identified with IHC subtypes could be predictive of pCR with this treatment.

Evaluating Metformin Strategies for Cancer Prevention: A Target Trial Emulation Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Metformin users appear to have a substantially lower risk of cancer than nonusers in many observational studies. These inverse associations may be explained by common flaws in observational analyses that can be avoided by explicitly emulating a target trial. METHODS: We emulated target trials of metformin therapy and cancer risk using population-based linked electronic health records from the UK (2009-2016). We included individuals with diabetes, no history of cancer, no recent prescription for metformin or other glucose-lowering medication, and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) <64 mmol/mol (<8.0%). Outcomes included total cancer and 4 site-specific cancers (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate). We estimated risks using pooled logistic regression with adjustment for risk factors via inverse-probability weighting. We emulated a second target trial among individuals regardless of diabetes status. We compared our estimates with those obtained using previously applied analytic approaches. RESULTS: Among individuals with diabetes, the estimated 6-year risk differences (metformin - no metformin) were -0.2% (95% CI = -1.6%, 1.3%) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 0.0% (95% CI = -2.1%, 2.3%) in the per-protocol analysis. The corresponding estimates for all site-specific cancers were close to zero. Among individuals regardless of diabetes status, these estimates were also close to zero and more precise. By contrast, previous analytic approaches yielded estimates that appeared strongly protective. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that metformin therapy does not meaningfully influence cancer incidence. The findings highlight the importance of explicitly emulating a target trial to reduce bias in the effect estimates derived from observational analyses.

Daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine and hydroxychloroquine for pre-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19: a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial in healthcare workers.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) as pre-exposure prophylaxis on COVID-19 risk. METHODS: EPICOS is a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial conducted in Spain, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Healthcare workers with negative SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG test were randomly assigned to the following: daily TDF/FTC plus HCQ for 12 weeks, TDF/FTC plus HCQ placebo, HCQ plus TDF/FTC placebo, and TDF/FTC placebo plus HCQ placebo. Randomization was performed in groups of four. Primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed, symptomatic COVID-19. We also studied any (symptomatic or asymptomatic) COVID-19. We compared group-specific 14-week risks via differences and ratios with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of 1002 individuals screened, 926 (92.4%) were eligible and there were 14 cases of symptomatic COVID-19: 220 were assigned to the TDF/FTC plus HCQ group (3 cases), 231 to the TDF/FTC placebo plus HCQ group (3 cases), 233 to the TDF/FTC plus HCQ placebo group (3 cases), and 223 to the double placebo group (5 cases). Compared with the double placebo group, 14-week risk ratios (95% CI) of symptomatic COVID-19 were 0.39 (0.00-1.98) for TDF + HCQ, 0.34 (0.00-2.06) for TDF, and 0.49 (0.00-2.29) for HCQ. Corresponding risk ratios of any COVID-19 were 0.51 (0.21-1.00) for TDF + HCQ, 0.81 (0.44-1.49) for TDF, and 0.73 (0.41-1.38) for HCQ. Adverse events were generally mild. DISCUSSION: The target sample size was not met. Our findings are compatible with both benefit and harm of pre-exposure prophylaxis with TDF/FTC and HCQ, alone or in combination, compared with placebo.

Real World Outcomes in Patients With Metastatic, Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Treated With Radium-223 in Routine Clinical Practice in Sweden.

AIM: Estimate the effect of Radium-223 (Ra-223) on the incidence of bone fractures, prostate cancer death, and all-cause death compared with other standard treatments for metastatic, castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). METHODS: Using a cohort design, we estimated the effect of Ra-223 on the risk of bone fractures, all-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality across different lines of treatment for mCRPC using Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (2013-2018). The comparator group comprised other standard treatments for mCRPC. We used 36-month risk differences and hazard ratios (HRs) as effect estimates. RESULTS: The number of eligible individuals was 635, 453, 262, and 84 for the first-, second-, third-, and fourth-line cohorts, respectively. When compared Ra-223 to other standard treatments, the difference in the 36-month risk of fracture was 6% (95% confidence interval [CI], -7% to 18%) in the first-line cohort (n = 635) and 8% (95% CI, -7% to 18%) in the second-line cohort (n = 453). The number of fractures in the third-/fourth-line cohorts was too small for an adjusted comparison. The difference in 36-month mortality was higher in the first-line cohort 13% (95% CI, -3% to 31%), but lower in the second- and third-/fourth-line cohorts-8% (95% CI, -23% to 7%) and -14% (95% CI, -21% to 16%) respectively. Most deaths were due to prostate cancer. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that the difference in the risk of fractures is small, if any. A difference in the risk of mortality may be present in first-line treatment, but a decreased risk of mortality was observed in second and later lines of treatment. The results on mortality need to be considered in the context of potential unmeasured or residual confounding.

Effectiveness of Mammography Screening on Breast Cancer Mortality - A Study Protocol for Emulation of Target Trials Using German Health Claims Data.

Background: The efficacy of mammography screening in reducing breast cancer mortality has been demonstrated in randomized trials. However, treatment options - and hence prognosis - for advanced tumor stages as well as mammography techniques have considerably improved since completion of these trials. Consequently, the effectiveness of mammography screening under current conditions is unclear and controversial. The German mammography screening program (MSP), an organized population-based screening program, was gradually introduced between 2005 and 2008 and achieved nation-wide coverage in 2009. Objective: We describe in detail a study protocol for investigating the effectiveness of the German MSP in reducing breast cancer mortality in women aged 50 to 69 years based on health claims data. Specifically, the proposed study aims at estimating per-protocol effects of several screening strategies on cumulative breast cancer mortality. The first analysis will be conducted once 10-year follow-up data are available. Methods and Analysis: We will use claims data from five statutory health insurance providers in Germany, covering approximately 37.6 million individuals. To estimate the effectiveness of the MSP, hypothetical target trials will be emulated across time, an approach that has been demonstrated to minimize design-related biases. Specifically, the primary contrast will be in terms of the cumulative breast cancer mortality comparing the screening strategies of "never screen" versus "regular screening as intended by the MSP". Ethics and Dissemination: In Germany, the utilization of data from health insurances for scientific research is regulated by the Code of Social Law. All involved health insurance providers as well as the responsible authorities approved the use of the health claims data for this study. The Ethics Committee of the University of Bremen determined that studies based on claims data are exempt from institutional review. The findings of the proposed study will be published in peer-reviewed journals.

Emulation of a target trial with sustained treatment strategies: an application to prostate cancer using both inverse probability weighting and the g-formula.

As with many chronic illnesses, recurrent prostate cancer generally requires sustained treatment to prolong survival. However, initiating treatment immediately after recurrence may negatively impact quality of life without any survival gains. Therefore, we consider sustained strategies for initiating treatment based on specific characteristics of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), which can indicate disease progression. We define the protocol for a target trial comparing treatment strategies based on PSA doubling time, in which androgen deprivation therapy is initiated only after doubling time decreases below a certain threshold. Such a treatment strategy means the timing of treatment initiation (if ever) is not known at baseline, and the target trial protocol must explicitly specify the frequency of PSA monitoring until the threshold is met, as well as the duration of treatment. We describe these and other components of a target trial that need to be specified in order for such a trial to be emulated in observational data. We then use the parametric g-formula and inverse-probability weighted dynamic marginal structural models to emulate our target trial in a cohort of prostate cancer patients from clinics across the United States.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials of hydroxychloroquine for the prevention of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment into randomized trials of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for prevention of COVID-19 has been adversely affected by a widespread conviction that HCQ is not effective for prevention. In the absence of an updated systematic review, we conducted a meta-analysis of randomized trials that study the effectiveness of HCQ to prevent COVID-19. METHODS: A search of PubMed, medRxiv, and clinicaltrials.gov combined with expert consultation found 11 completed randomized trials: 7 pre-exposure prophylaxis trials and 4 post-exposure prophylaxis trials. We obtained or calculated the risk ratio of COVID-19 diagnosis for assignment to HCQ versus no HCQ (either placebo or usual care) for each trial, and then pooled the risk ratio estimates. RESULTS: The pooled risk ratio estimate of the pre-exposure prophylaxis trials was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.58-0.90) when using either a fixed effect or a standard random effects approach, and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.55-0.95) when using a conservative modification of the Hartung-Knapp random effects approach. The corresponding estimates for the post-exposure prophylaxis trials were 0.91 (95% CI: 0.72-1.16) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.62-1.35). All trials found a similar rate of serious adverse effects in the HCQ and no HCQ groups. DISCUSSION: A benefit of HCQ as prophylaxis for COVID-19 cannot be ruled out based on the available evidence from randomized trials. However, the "not statistically significant" findings from early prophylaxis trials were widely interpreted as definite evidence of lack of effectiveness of HCQ. This interpretation disrupted the timely completion of the remaining trials and thus the generation of precise estimates for pandemic management before the development of vaccines.

Emulating a target trial in case-control designs: an application to statins and colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Previous case-control studies have reported a strong association between statin use and lower cancer risk. It is unclear whether this association reflects a benefit of statins or is the result of design decisions that cannot be mapped to a (hypothetical) target trial (that would answer the question of interest). METHODS: We outlined the protocol of a target trial to estimate the effect of statins on colorectal cancer incidence among adults with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol below 5 mmol/L. We then emulated the target trial using linked electronic health records of 752 469 eligible UK adults (CALIBER 1999-2016) under both a cohort design and a case-control sampling of the cohort. We used pooled logistic regression to estimate intention-to-treat and per-protocol effects of statins on colorectal cancer, with adjustment for baseline and time-varying risk factors via inverse-probability weighting. Finally, we compared our case-control effect estimates with those obtained using previous case-control procedures. RESULTS: Over the 6-year follow-up, 3596 individuals developed colorectal cancer. Estimated intention-to-treat and per-protocol hazard ratios were 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87, 1.16) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.71, 1.12), respectively. As expected, adequate case-control sampling yielded the same estimates. By contrast, previous case-control analytical approaches yielded estimates that appeared strongly protective (odds ratio 0.57, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.91, for ≥5 vs. <5 years of statin use). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates how to explicitly emulate a target trial using case-control data to reduce discrepancies between observational and randomized trial evidence. This approach may inform future case-control analyses for comparative effectiveness research.

Estimates of Overall Survival in Patients With Cancer Receiving Different Treatment Regimens: Emulating Hypothetical Target Trials in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare Linked Database.

Importance: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database may provide insights into the comparative effectiveness of oncological treatments for elderly individuals who are underrepresented in clinical trials. Objective: To evaluate the suitability of SEER-Medicare data for assessing the effectiveness of adding a drug to an existing treatment regimen on the overall survival of elderly patients with cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study analyzed SEER-Medicare data from 9549 individuals who received a new diagnosis of stage II colorectal cancer (2008-2012) and 940 patients who received a new diagnosis of advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma (2007-2012), with follow-up to December 31, 2013 (SEER-Medicare data released in 2015). Two (hypothetical) target trials were designed and emulated based on 2 existing randomized clinical trials: (1) adjuvant fluorouracil after curative surgery for individuals with stage II colorectal cancer and (2) erlotinib added to gemcitabine for individuals with advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Data were analyzed January 2018 to March 2019. Exposures: The following treatment strategies were compared: (1) fluorouracil initiation vs no initiation within 3 months of tumor resection and (2) erlotinib initiation vs no initiation within 12 weeks of gemcitabine initiation. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality within 60 months of baseline for the fluorouracil trial and within 72 weeks for the erlotinib trial. Results: Compared with 3293 individuals in the existing fluorouracil trial, 9549 eligible individuals included in the present analyses were more likely to have colon cancer (8565 [90%] vs 2291 [71%]) and were older (median [interquartile range], 79 [73-84] vs 63 [56-68] years). The 5-year risk difference for initiation vs noninitiation of fluorouracil after surgery was -3.8% (95% CI, -14.8% to 12.6%), and the mortality hazard ratio (HR) was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.85-1.04). Compared with 569 individuals in the existing erlotinib trial, 940 eligible patients included in the present analysis were older (median [range], 74 [66-93] vs 64 [36-92] years) and more likely to be male (547 [58%] vs 298 [52%]). The 1-year risk difference for initiation vs noninitiation of erlotinib was 4.7% (95% CI, -9.4% to 18.0%), and the corresponding mortality HR was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.86-1.42). In naive analyses, the mortality HR estimate was 1.14 (95% CI, 0.95-1.36) for the fluorouracil emulation and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.54-0.87) for the erlotinib emulation. Conclusions and Relevance: The present estimates were similar to those from randomized clinical trials that studied adding the same cancer drugs to existing regimens. The published HR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.70-1.48) in the fluorouracil trial for individuals aged 70 or older and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.74-1.24) in the erlotinib trial for individuals aged 65 years or older. The SEER-Medicare database may be adequate for studying the real-world effectiveness of adding a drug to treatment regimens used for elderly individuals with cancer.

Continuation of Annual Screening Mammography and Breast Cancer Mortality in Women Older Than 70 Years.

Background: Randomized trials have shown that initiating breast cancer screening between ages 50 and 69 years and continuing it for 10 years decreases breast cancer mortality. However, no trials have studied whether or when women can safely stop screening mammography. An estimated 52% of women aged 75 years or older undergo screening mammography in the United States. Objective: To estimate the effect of breast cancer screening on breast cancer mortality in Medicare beneficiaries aged 70 to 84 years. Design: Large-scale, population-based, observational study of 2 screening strategies: continuing annual mammography, and stopping screening. Setting: U.S. Medicare program, 2000 to 2008. Participants: 1 058 013 beneficiaries aged 70 to 84 years who had a life expectancy of at least 10 years, had no previous breast cancer diagnosis, and underwent screening mammography. Measurements: Eight-year breast cancer mortality, incidence, and treatments, plus the positive predictive value of screening mammography by age group. Results: In women aged 70 to 74 years, the estimated difference in 8-year risk for breast cancer death between continuing and stopping screening was -1.0 (95% CI, -2.3 to 0.1) death per 1000 women (hazard ratio, 0.78 [CI, 0.63 to 0.95]) (a negative risk difference favors continuing). In those aged 75 to 84 years, the corresponding risk difference was 0.07 (CI, -0.93 to 1.3) death per 1000 women (hazard ratio, 1.00 [CI, 0.83 to 1.19]). Limitations: The available Medicare data permit only 8 years of follow-up after screening. As with any study using observational data, the estimates could be affected by residual confounding. Conclusion: Continuing annual breast cancer screening past age 75 years did not result in substantial reductions in 8-year breast cancer mortality compared with stopping screening. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.

Avoidable flaws in observational analyses: an application to statins and cancer.

The increasing availability of large healthcare databases is fueling an intense debate on whether real-world data should play a role in the assessment of the benefit-risk of medical treatments. In many observational studies, for example, statin users were found to have a substantially lower risk of cancer than in meta-analyses of randomized trials. Although such discrepancies are often attributed to a lack of randomization in the observational studies, they might be explained by flaws that can be avoided by explicitly emulating a target trial (the randomized trial that would answer the question of interest). Using the electronic health records of 733,804 UK adults, we emulated a target trial of statins and cancer and compared our estimates with those obtained using previously applied analytic approaches. Over the 10-yr follow-up, 28,408 individuals developed cancer. Under the target trial approach, estimated observational analogs of intention-to-treat and per-protocol 10-yr cancer-free survival differences were -0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) -1.0%, 0.0%) and -0.3% (95% CI -1.5%, 0.5%), respectively. By contrast, previous analytic approaches yielded estimates that appeared to be strongly protective. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly emulating a target trial to reduce bias in the effect estimates derived from observational analyses.

Effect of Aflibercept Plus Modified FOLFOX6 Induction Chemotherapy Before Standard Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery in Patients With High-Risk Rectal Adenocarcinoma: The GEMCAD 1402 Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Preclinical studies suggest that a vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) blockade may play a role in the preoperative treatment of rectal adenocarcinoma; however, how to combine anti-VEGF drugs with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (CT) and/or chemoradiotherapy (CRT) remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of aflibercept plus modified fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (mFOLFOX6) induction CT prior to standard CRT and total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery in patients with high-risk rectal adenocarcinoma. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In the Grupo Español Multidisciplinar En Cancer Digestivo (GEMCAD) 1402 phase 2 randomized clinical trial, 180 patients aged 18 to 75 years, identified by centrally reviewed magnetic resonance imaging to have mrT3c-d/T4/N2 rectal adenocarcinoma, were enrolled from 20 treatment centers in Spain between January 2015 and March 2017. Patients were randomized in a 2:1 treatment to control arm ratio. The primary end point was evaluated at 2 interim and 1 final analyses. The study was designed to perform hypothesis testing at α = .2 and ß = .2. A 2-sided P value of <.1984 in the final analysis of the intention-to-treat population was the threshold for considering the experimental treatment to be more effective than the control. INTERVENTIONS: Patients received neoadjuvant mFOLFOX6 with (arm A; n = 115) or without (arm B; n = 65) aflibercept, 4 mg/kg (every 2 weeks, 6 cycles, and 3 months) prior to standard CRT and TME surgery. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was a pathologic complete response (pCR) (ypT0N0). Secondary end points included toxic effects, surgical morbidity, R0 resections, compliance, and 3-year disease-free survival. RESULTS: For the 115 patients who received treatment with mFOLFOX6 plus aflibercept, the median (range) age was 60 (32-75) years, 77 men (66.9%) and 38 women (33.0%). For the 65 patients who received induction CT treatment with only mFOLFOX6, the median (range) age was 65 (39-75) years, 39 men (60.0%) and 26 women (40.0%). The pCR rate in the intention-to-treat population was 22.6% (95% CI, 15.3%-31.3%) in arm A and 13.8% (95% CI, 6.5%-24.6%) in arm B (P = .15). The main differential toxic effect was grade 3/4 hypertension during the induction phase. Postoperative complications were similar in both arms (15.5% in arm A and 12.9% in arm B). A total of 106 patients (92.1%) in arm A and 63 (96.9%) in arm B received all treatment cycles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The study met its primary end point. The findings suggest that adding aflibercept to an induction regimen using mFOLFOX6 plays a role in increasing the pCR rate in patients with high-risk rectal adenocarcinoma, without substantially increasing surgical complications. The GEMCAD 1402 trial provides a rationale for phase 3 trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02340949.

Prospective Biomarker Study in Advanced RAS Wild-Type Colorectal Cancer: POSIBA Trial (GEMCAD 10-02).

BACKGROUND: RAS testing is used to select patients with anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapies sensitivity in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). However, other biomarkers such as BRAF, PIK3CA/PTEN, and p-IGF-1R+/MMP7+ (double positive [DP] phenotype) have not been prospectively assessed to predict anti-EGFR resistance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We designed a multicenter prospective trial (NCT01276379) to evaluate whether the biomarkers BRAF mutation, PIK3CA mutation/PTEN loss, and DP phenotype can improve the prediction for 12-months progression-free survival (PFS) over the use of clinical variables exclusively in patients with RAS wild-type (WT) mCRC treated with standard chemotherapy plus biweekly cetuximab as first-line therapy. The planned sample size was 170 RAS WT patients to detect a 20% difference in 12-month PFS based on the analysis of clinical and selected biomarkers (α = .05, ß = .2). The discriminatory capacity of the biomarkers was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: We included 181 RAS WT patients. The biomarker distribution was as follows: BRAF mutant, 20 patients (11%); PIK3CA mutated/PTEN loss, 98 patients (58%); DP, 23 patients (12.7%). The clinical variables in the clinical score were progression status >0, left-sided tumor, and resectable liver metastasis as the only metastatic site. The area under the curve (AUC) of the score containing the clinical variables was 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-0.75). The AUC of the score with clinical variables and BRAF mutational status was 0.68 (0.61-0.75, p = .37). The AUC of the score with clinical variables and PI3KCA mutation/PTEN status was 0.69 (0.61-0.76, p = .32). The AUC of the score with clinical variables and DP phenotype was 0.66 (0.58-0.73, p = .09). CONCLUSION: The addition of BRAF, PIK3CA/PTEN, and DP to a clinical score does not improve the discrimination of 12-month PFS. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This prospective biomarker design study has important clinical implications because many prospective clinical trials are designed with the hypothesis that BRAF mutation per se and MEK and PIK3CA downstream pathways are critical for colorectal tumor survival. The results lead to the question of whether these pathways should be considered as passengers instead of drivers.

Clinical Impact of Circulating Tumor RAS and BRAF Mutation Dynamics in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Treated With First-Line Chemotherapy Plus Anti-Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Therapy.

PURPOSE: RAS and BRAF mutations can be detected as a mechanism of acquired resistance in circulating tumor (ct) DNA in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with anti-epidermal growth factor receptor therapy. METHODS: RAS and BRAF mutational status was assessed in ctDNA in a baseline plasma sample and a serum sample collected at the time of the last available determination (named secondary extraction) from patients with KRAS exon 2 wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer treated in two first-line prospective biomarker-designed clinical trials (PULSE, ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01288339; and POSIBA, ClincialTrials.gov identifier: NCT01276379). RESULTS: Analysis of extended RAS and BRAF in tissue and plasma from 178 patients with KRAS exon 2 wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer showed a sensitivity of 64.1% and a specificity of 90%. The median overall survival (OS) of baseline patients with RAS and BRAF mutations in ctDNA was 22.3 months (95% CI, 15.6 to 29 months) and 8.9 months (95% CI, 6.3 to 11.4 months), respectively, which was significantly inferior to the median OS of 40.4 months (95% CI, 35.9 to 44.9 months) in two patients with wild-type disease (P < .001). Acquisition of RAS/BRAF mutations occurred in nine of 63 patients (14%) with progressive disease (PD; ie, blood draw within 1 month before PD or after PD) compared with six of 73 patients (8%) with no PD or blood extraction for ctDNA analysis before 1 month of PD (P = .47). Median OS in patients with RAS/BRAF acquisition was 23.9 months (95% CI, 19.7 to 27.9 months) compared with 40.6 months (95% CI, not reached to not reached) in patients who remained free of mutations (P = .016). CONCLUSION: Our results confirm that baseline RAS and BRAF testing in ctDNA discriminates survival. The emergence of RAS/BRAF mutations has limited relevance for the time to progression to anti-epidermal growth factor receptor therapy.

Conducta transfusional perioperatoria en la cirugía del cáncer gástrico: análisis del registro del grupo español EURECCA de cáncer esófago-gástrico / Perioperative transfusion management in gastric cancer surgery: Analysis of the Spanish subset of the EURECCA oesophago-gastric cancer registry

INTRODUCCIÓN: Este estudio evaluó la tasa de transfusión de concentrados de hematíes alogénicos (TCHA) en la cirugía de resección del cáncer gástrico y la difusión de los protocolos de ahorro transfusional (PAT). MÉTODOS: Estudio retrospectivo de todos los pacientes operados por adenocarcinoma gástrico con intención curativa en Cataluña y Navarra (2011-2013) e incluidos en el registro del grupo español EURECCA de cáncer esófago-gástrico. Los hospitales con PAT disponían de un circuito de optimización preoperatoria de la hemoglobina (Hb) y de política transfusional restrictiva. Los factores predictores de TCHA se identificaron mediante una regresión logística multinomial. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 652 pacientes, 274 (42%) de los cuales recibieron TCHA. Seis de los 19 hospitales disponían de PAT (22% de los pacientes). La Hb baja al diagnóstico (10 vs. 12,4 g/dL), una puntuación ASA III/IV, pT3-4, la cirugía abierta, la resección visceral asociada y haber sido atendido en un hospital sin PAT fueron factores predictores de TCHA, con la Hb baja, la resección visceral asociada y la intervención en un centro sin PAT persistiendo como predictores en el análisis multivariante. Hubo un mayor porcentaje de uso de hierro en el preoperatorio (26,2 vs. 13,2%) y un menor porcentaje de transfusiones (31,7 vs. 45%) en los hospitales con PAT. CONCLUSIONES: La tasa transfusional en la cirugía del cáncer gástrico fue del 42%. Los PAT resultaron eficaces pero su implementación fue solo del 22%. La Hb baja, la intervención en un centro sin PAT y la resección visceral asociada fueron predictores de transfusión

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated allogenic packed red blood cell (aPRBC) transfusion rates in patients undergoing resection for gastric cancer and the implementation of blood-saving protocols (BSP). METHODS: Retrospective study of all gastric cancer patients operated on with curative intent in Catalonia and Navarra (2011-2013) and included in the Spanish subset of the EURECCA Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Registry. Hospitals with BSP were defined as those with a preoperative haemoglobin (Hb) optimisation circuit associated with restrictive transfusion strategies. Predictors of aPRBC transfusion were identified by multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 652 patients were included, 274 (42.0%) of which received aPRBC transfusion. Six of the 19 participating hospitals had BSP and treated 145 (22.2%) patients. Low Hb level at diagnosis (10 vs 12.4g/dL), ASA score III/IV, pT3-4, open surgery, associated visceral resection, and having being operated on in a hospital without BSP were predictors of aPRBC transfusion, while low Hb level, associated visceral resection, and non-BSP hospital remained predictors in the multivariate analysis. In case of comparable risk factors for aPRBC transfusion, there was a higher use of preoperative intravenous iron treatment (26.2% vs 13.2%) and a lower percentage of transfusions (31.7% vs 45%) in hospitals with BSP. CONCLUSIONS:The perioperative transfusion rate in gastric cancer was 42%. Hospitals with BSP showed a significant reduction of blood transfusions but treated only 22% of patients. Main predictors of aPRBC were low Hb level, associated visceral resection, and undergoing surgery at a hospital without BSP