Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data.

Designing public health responses to outbreaks requires close monitoring of population-level health indicators in real-time. Thus, an accurate estimation of the epidemic curve is critical. We propose an approach to reconstruct epidemic curves in near real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between March and April 2020. We address two data collection problems that affected the reliability of the available real-time epidemiological data, namely, the frequent missing information documenting when a patient first experienced symptoms, and the frequent retrospective revision of historical information (including right censoring). This is done by using a novel back-calculating procedure based on imputing patients' dates of symptom onset from reported cases, according to a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and adjusting for right censoring using an existing package, NobBS , to estimate in real time (nowcast) cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number ( R t ) in real-time. At each step, we evaluate how different assumptions affect the recovered epidemiological events and compare the proposed approach to the alternative procedure of merely using curves of case counts, by report day, to characterize the time-evolution of the outbreak. Finally, we assess how these real-time estimates compare with subsequently documented epidemiological information that is considered more reliable and complete that became available later in time. Our approach may help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health surveillance systems in other locations.

Burden of disease related to hepatitis C and hepatitis B in Spain: a methodological challenge of an unfolding health problem.

Most previous studies of burden of disease (BoD) in the area of transmissible diseases have assessed the burden of hepatitis C and B without including the end stages of the disease and using an incident approach. We aimed to assess the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to hepatitis C and B in Spain in 2006 taking into account related cirrhosis and liver cancer. A prevalence approach was used to estimate current years lived with disability (YLD) because of viral hepatitis contracted years/decades before. We added years of life lost (YLL) to obtain DALYs. Around 76,000 DALYs were attributed to hepatitis C virus (HCV) and 15,323 to hepatitis B virus (HBV) when calculated without applying social values. Applying the discount rate and age-weighting used in the Global Burden Disease study, the BoD nearly halved. In any case, the burden related to hepatitis C including long-term outputs becomes the leading cause of DALYs among transmissible diseases in Spain. The mortality component (YLL) represents more than 90% of the BoD in both HCV and HBV. The findings emphasize the need to provide good surveillance systems not only concerning acute viral hepatitis, but also chronic and end-stage consequences to allow a reliable assessment of the prevention and public health control policies.

Discrimination and mental health in Ecuadorian immigrants in Spain.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the effects of ethnic discrimination on the mental health of Ecuadorian immigrants in Spain and to assess the roles of material and social resources. METHODS: Data were taken from the "Neighbourhood characteristics, immigration and mental health" survey conducted in 2006 in Spain. Psychological distress measured as "Possible Psychiatric Case" (PPC) was measured by the GHQ-28. A logistic regression was fitted to assess the association between PPC and discrimination. Interactions of discrimination with social and material resources were tested using product terms. RESULTS: Some 28% of the participants met our definition of PPC. About 20% of those who reported no discrimination were PPCs, rising to 30% of those who sometimes felt discriminated against and 41% of those who continually perceived discrimination. The OR for continuous discrimination was 12 (95% CI 3.5 to 40.3) among those with high financial strain, and 10 (2.4 to 41.7) when there was lack of economic support. Emotional support had an independent effect on PPC (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0 to 3.6, for those who reported having no friends). Social integration through a community group or association was positively related to the probability of being a PPC (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.9). CONCLUSION: Ethnic discrimination is associated with psychological distress in these Ecuadorian immigrants in Spain. Discrimination effects may be exacerbated among those facing economic stress and those without economic support. These particularly vulnerable immigrants should be the subject of social and health interventions.

Determinants of health system delay among confirmed tuberculosis cases in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Health system delay (HSD) is an important issue in tuberculosis (TB) control. This report investigates HSD and associated factors in a cohort of Spanish culture-confirmed TB patients. METHODS: Data were collected from clinical records. Using logistic regression with two different cut-off points to define HSD (median and 75th percentile), adjusted odds ratios were used to estimate the association between HSD and different variables. RESULTS: A total of 5184 culture-confirmed TB cases were included. Median and 75th percentile HSD were 6 and 25 days respectively. HSD significantly greater than the median was associated with: age >44 years, past or present intravenous drug use, diagnosis at a primary-care centre, prior preventive therapy, positive histology, request for drug-sensitivity testing, presence of silicosis or neoplasia in addition to TB, presence of non-TB related symptoms, and gastrointestinal site. HSD greater than the 75th percentile was related to the same variables, with the exception of diagnosis at a primary-care centre, positive histology, silicosis, non-TB-related symptoms and gastrointestinal site, for which the association disappeared; in contrast, an association with female gender emerged. CONCLUSION: Despite free health care being universally available in Spain, there are some groups of TB patients whose treatment is unduly delayed.

[Results of anti-tuberculosis treatment in six autonomous regions in Spain]. / Resultados del tratamiento antituberculoso en seis comunidades autónomas españolas.

BACKGROUND: To analyze tuberculosis treatment outcome in Spain. PATIENTS AND METHOD: A retrospective cohort study was performed of 6 Autonomous Regions of Spain: Asturias, Catalonia, Galicia, La Rioja, Murcia and Basque Country. Study subjects were new cases of tuberculosis identified through the MPTR who were not in prison at the time of diagnosis (May 1996-April 1997). Information was gathered from the patients' clinical records. Guidelines issued for tuberculosis treatment outcome monitoring in Europe were followed. RESULTS: A total of 4,899 new cases of tuberculosis met the criteria for inclusion. Out of them, 4,240 (86.6%) had enough information on tuberculosis treatment outcome in their clinical record. Results showed that 3,417 cases (69.7%) had a satisfactory outcome, 438 (8.9%) died before or during treatment and 1,044 (21.4%) met the definition of a potentially unsatisfactory outcome. There were important differences in treatment outcome between regions. There were also variations by nationality, age group, HIV status, history of intravenous drug use, history of alcohol abuse and site of disease. CONCLUSIONS: According to the results of our study, the proportion of new cases of tuberculosis that had a satisfactory outcome at the end of treatment do not reach WHO recommended level to effectively control the disease. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the situation and to propose measures to improve it.

A large outbreak of Shigella sonnei gastroenteritis associated with consumption of fresh pasteurised milk cheese.

A large outbreak of Shigella sonnei gastroenteritis occurred in Murcia Region (Southeast Spain) in the winter of 1995-1996. More than 200 people were affected. Epidemiological investigations implicated a regionally manufactured fresh pasteurised milk cheese as the vehicle of infection. A case-control study showed a statistically significant association between the illness and consumption of the suspect cheese. The dispersed sale of the cheese resulted in a regional dissemination of the organism and people were affected in eight townships. Research suggested that an infected foodhandler at the cheese factory might have been the source of contamination and that the processing method might have allowed cross-contamination to occur. This study emphasises the importance of increasing the control of strict hygiene during the processing of fresh cheese, since legislation does not forbid direct contact by hand that could result in contamination of cheese even when the milk pasteurisation process was correctly performed.

Seroconversion and duration of immunity after vaccination against group C meningococcal infection in young children.

An increase in the incidence of group C meningococcal disease was observed in the Murcia Region (Spain) during 1996-1997. In September 1997, a massive vaccination campaign was implemented among the population aged 18 months to 19 years. The aim of this study was to assess the seroconversion rate of children aged 18-59 months and the persistence of immune response 1 year after vaccination. A total of 296 children were included. Blood samples were obtained before vaccination and 1 month and 1 year after vaccination. Three point seven percent of the children had bactericidal antibody titres of >/=1:8 before vaccination. One month after vaccination seroconversion was 63.7%, with a growing trend related to age at vaccination (p<0.0001). The increase in antibody titres was shown to be quantitatively greater above the age of 36 months (p<0.0001). One year after vaccination only 4.3% of the children who initially seroconverted still had bactericidal activity. Seroconversion in children under 5 increases with age but antibodies decline rapidly in the year following vaccination.

Prevalence of hepatitis A antibodies in southeastern Spain: a population-based study.

The prevalence of hepatitis A antibodies in the adult population of the Murcia Region (southeast of Spain) was estimated using an anonymous unlinked serosurvey in a population-based sample of 2,203 adults. The overall anti-HAV prevalence was 76.5%. The prevalence increased with age and was higher in individuals living in towns with less than 10,000 inhabitants.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C markers in the south-east of Spain: an unlinked community-based serosurvey of 2,203 adults.

We conducted an unlinked seroprevalence survey in a community-based sample of 2,203 adults to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B and C virus markers in the general adult population of the Murcia region (Spain). The influence of age, sex and place of residence on the seroprevalence of hepatitis was investigated. The overall prevalence was 10.2% for anti-HBc antibodies, 0.9% for HBsAg, and 1% for anti-HCV. There was a trend of increasing prevalence with age for anti-HBc and anti-HCV regardless of sex and urban or rural residence. The prevalence of hepatitis B and C markers was higher in individuals living in urban areas, although there was no significant association. The results indicate that the Murcia region may be considered an area of low-intermediate endemicity for hepatitis B virus infection. This is one of the first reports assessing the prevalence rate for hepatitis C markers for a general population in Europe.