Projecting the economic burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: The growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) places substantial financial pressures on patients, healthcare systems, and society. An understanding of the costs attributed to CKD and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is essential for evidence-based policy making. Inside CKD maps and projects the economic burden of CKD across 31 countries/regions from 2022 to 2027. Methods: A microsimulation model was developed that generated virtual populations using national demographics, relevant literature, and renal registries for the 31 countries/regions included. Patient-level country/region-specific cost data were extracted via a pragmatic local literature review and under advisement from local experts. Direct cost projections were generated for diagnosed CKD (by age, stage 3a-5), KRT (by modality), cardiovascular complications (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke), and comorbidities (hypertension, type 2 diabetes). Findings: For the 31 countries/regions, Inside CKD projected that annual direct costs (US$) of diagnosed CKD and KRT would increase by 9.3% between 2022 and 2027, from $372.0 billion to $406.7 billion. Annual KRT-associated costs were projected to increase by 10.0% from $169.6 billion to $186.6 billion between 2022 and 2027. By 2027, patients receiving KRT are projected to constitute 5.3% of the diagnosed CKD population but contribute 45.9% of the total costs. Interpretation: The economic burden of CKD is projected to increase from 2022 to 2027. KRT contributes disproportionately to this burden. Earlier diagnosis and proactive management could slow disease progression, potentially alleviating the substantial costs associated with later CKD stages. Data presented here can be used to inform healthcare resource allocation and shape future policy. Funding: AstraZeneca.

Projecting the clinical burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global concern that presents significant challenges for disease management. Several factors drive CKD prevalence, including primary risk factors, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension, and an ageing population. Inside CKD is an international initiative that aims to raise awareness of the substantial burden incurred by CKD. Methods: Using a peer-reviewed microsimulation method, the clinical burden of CKD was estimated from 2022 to 2027. Demographic data from the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific/Middle East were used to generate virtual populations and to project the prevalence of CKD, kidney replacement therapy, associated cardiovascular complications, comorbid conditions, and all-cause mortality in the CKD population over the modelled time frame. Findings: Across the 31 participating countries/regions, the total prevalence of CKD was projected to rise to 436.6 million cases by 2027 (an increase of 5.8% from 2022), with most cases (∼80%) undiagnosed. Inside CKD projected a mean of 8859 cases of heart failure, 10,244 of myocardial infarction, and 7797 of stroke per 100,000 patients with CKD by 2027. Interpretation: The clinical impact of CKD is substantial and likely to increase; the high prevalence of undiagnosed cases and associated complications may benefit from the implementation of health policy interventions that promote screening, earlier diagnosis, and interventions to improve outcomes. Funding: AstraZeneca.

Clinical Outcomes in Patients with CKD and Rapid or Non-rapid eGFR Decline: A Report from the DISCOVER CKD Retrospective Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: This analysis examined the baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and rapid or non-rapid estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline, using retrospective data from DISCOVER CKD (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04034992). METHODS: Data (2008-2020) were extracted from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, US TriNetX, US Limited Claims and Electronic Health Record Dataset, and Japan Medical Data Vision. Patients with CKD (two consecutive eGFR measures < 75 mL/min/1.73 m2 recorded 90-730 days apart) were included. Rapid eGFR decline was defined as an annual decline of > 4 mL/min/1.73 m2 at 2 years post-index; non-rapid eGFR decline was defined as an annual decline of ≤ 4 mL/min/1.73 m2. Clinical outcomes assessed included all-cause mortality, kidney outcomes (composite risk of kidney failure [progression to CKD stage 5] or > 50% eGFR decline, and kidney failure alone), cardiovascular events-including major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; non-fatal myocardial infarction/stroke and cardiovascular death)-and all-cause hospitalization. RESULTS: Across databases, rapid eGFR decline occurred in 13.7% of 804,237 eligible patients. Mean annual eGFR decline ranged between - 6.21 and - 6.86 mL/min/1.73 m2 in patients with rapid eGFR decline versus between - 0.11 and - 0.77 mL/min/1.73 m2 in patients with non-rapid eGFR decline. Rapid eGFR decline was associated with increased comorbidity burden and medication prescriptions. Across databases, the composite risk of kidney failure or > 50% decline in eGFR was significantly greater in patients with rapid versus non-rapid eGFR decline (P < 0.01); all-cause mortality, kidney failure alone, MACE, and all-cause hospitalization each significantly increased in two databases (P < 0.01-0.05). CONCLUSION: Understanding patient factors associated with rapid eGFR decline in patients with CKD may help identify individuals who would benefit from proactive management to minimize the risk of adverse outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT04034992.

Dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: cost-effectiveness beyond the DAPA-CKD trial.

Background: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial enrolled patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate 25-75 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio >200 mg/g. The Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trial enrolled patients with type 2 diabetes, a higher range of kidney function and no albuminuria criterion. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in a broad chronic kidney disease population based on these two trials in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan. Methods: We adapted a published Markov model based on the DAPA-CKD trial but to a broader population, irrespective of urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, using patient-level data from the DAPA-CKD and DECLARE-TIMI 58 trials. We sourced cost and utility inputs from literature and the DAPA-CKD trial. The analysis considered healthcare system perspectives over a lifetime horizon. Results: Treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to attenuate disease progression and extend projected life expectancy by 0.64 years (12.5 versus 11.9 years, undiscounted) in the UK, with similar estimates in other settings. Clinical benefits translated to mean quality-adjusted life year (QALY; discounted) gains between 0.45 and 0.68 years across countries. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan ($10 676/QALY, $14 479/QALY, $7771/QALY and $13 723/QALY, respectively) were cost-effective at country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds. Subgroup analyses suggest dapagliflozin is cost-effective irrespective of urinary albumin-to-creatine ratio and type 2 diabetes status. Conclusion: Treatment with dapagliflozin may be cost-effective for patients across a wider spectrum of estimated glomerular filtration rates and albuminuria than previously demonstrated, with or without type 2 diabetes, in the UK, Spanish, Italian and Japanese healthcare systems.

Translating the efficacy of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease to lower healthcare resource utilization and costs: a medical care cost offset analysis.

AIMS: Dapagliflozin was approved for use in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on results of the DAPA-CKD trial, demonstrating attenuation of CKD progression and reduced risk of cardio-renal outcomes and all-cause mortality (ACM) versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy. The study objective was to assess the potential medical care cost offsets associated with reduced rates of cardio-renal outcomes across 31 countries and regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A comparative cost-determination framework estimated outcome-related costs of dapagliflozin plus standard therapy versus standard therapy alone over a 3-year horizon based on the DAPA-CKD trial. Incidence rates of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF), acute kidney injury (AKI), and ACM were estimated for a treated population of 100,000 patients. Associated medical care costs for non-fatal events were calculated using sources from a review of publicly available data specific to each considered setting. RESULTS: Patients treated with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy experienced fewer incidents of ESKD (7,221 vs 10,767; number needed to treat, NNT: 28), HHF (2,370 vs 4,684; NNT: 43), AKI (4,110 vs. 5,819; NNT: 58), and ACM (6,383 vs 8,874; NNT: 40) per 100,000 treated patients versus those treated with standard therapy alone. Across 31 countries/regions, reductions in clinical events were associated with a 33% reduction in total costs, or a cumulative mean medical care cost offset of $264 million per 100,000 patients over 3 years. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: This analysis is limited by the quality of country/region-specific data available for medical care event costs. Based on the DAPA-CKD trial, we show that treatment with dapagliflozin may prevent cardio-renal event incidence at the population level, which could have positive effects upon healthcare service delivery worldwide. The analysis was restricted to outcome-associated costs and did not consider the cost of drug treatments and disease management.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a high clinical, economic, and societal burden and it affects approximately 8-16% of the global population. The progressive nature of CKD may lead to complications, co-morbidities, and mortality, costing healthcare systems millions and consuming a large proportion of healthcare resources. Dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor, has been demonstrated to slow CKD progression and reduce cardio-renal complications, as demonstrated in the DAPA-CKD trial. With the emergence of dapagliflozin as a treatment for CKD, it is important for clinicians and healthcare providers to understand how effective treatment can positively affect short-term healthcare service delivery and associated costs. This medical care cost offset modelling analysis considers a scalable population of 100,000 patients in 31 countries/regions worldwide. The analysis estimates treatment with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy to be offset by a 33% reduction in costs associated with key cardio-renal outcomes, translating to an average $264 million in cost offsets per 100,000 treated patients. This modelling analysis of pivotal trial data shows dapagliflozin could have considerable benefits to healthcare systems worldwide that are under strain from the rising burden of CKD.

Global Economic Burden Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Pragmatic Review of Medical Costs for the Inside CKD Research Programme.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive disease of growing prevalence, posing serious concerns for global public health. While the economic burden of CKD is substantial, data on the cost of CKD is limited, despite growing pressures on healthcare systems. In this review, we summarise the available evidence in 31 countries and regions and compile a library of costing methodology and estimates of CKD management and disease-associated complications across 31 countries/regions within the Inside CKD programme. METHODS: We collected country/region-specific CKD costs via a pragmatic rapid literature review of local literature and engagement with local experts. We extracted cost data and definitions from identified sources for CKD stages G3a-5, kidney failure with replacement therapy by modality, covering haemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, and kidney transplants, and disease-associated complications in local currency, converted to United States dollars (USD) and inflated to 2022. RESULTS: Annual direct costs associated with CKD management rose by an average factor of 4 in each country/region upon progression from stage G3a to G5. Mean annual costs per patient increased considerably more from early stages versus dialysis (stage G3a, mean: $3060 versus haemodialysis, mean: $57,334; peritoneal dialysis, mean: $49,490); with estimates for annual costs of transplant also substantially higher (incident: $75,326; subsequent: $16,672). The mean annual per patient costs of complications were $18,294 for myocardial infarction, $8463 for heart failure, $10,168 for stroke and $5975 for acute kidney injury. Costing definitions varied widely in granularity and/or definition across all countries/regions. CONCLUSION: Globally, CKD carries a significant economic burden, which increases substantially with increasing disease severity. We identified significant gaps in published costs and inconsistent costing definitions. Cost-effective interventions that target primary prevention and disease progression are essential to reduce CKD burden. Our results can be used to guide cost collection and facilitate better comparisons across countries/regions to inform healthcare policy.

Budget Impact Analysis of Expanding Gliflozin Coverage in the CKD Population: A French Perspective.

INTRODUCTION: Gliflozins have historically been indicated for type 2 diabetes in France. However, their efficacy has recently been demonstrated in heart failure and chronic kidney disease (CKD), with positive recommendations by Haute Autorité de Santé for gliflozin therapies in these indications. The study objective was to investigate the 5-year budget impact associated with the introduction of gliflozins in addition to standard therapy in people with CKD and elevated albuminuria, regardless of diabetes status, from the perspective of the French healthcare system. METHODS: A budget impact model was developed to estimate the 5-year implications of incorporating gliflozins in the treatment of patients with CKD in France, using efficacy data from the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) trial. Direct medical costs associated with drug acquisition and management, treatment-related adverse events, dialysis and kidney transplantation, and adverse clinical outcomes were considered. Market share forecasts were estimated from historical data and expert opinions. Event rates were derived from trial data, while cost data were sourced from published estimates. RESULTS: The introduction of gliflozins was estimated to be cost saving compared to the no gliflozins scenario, with an expected cumulative 5-year budget impact of -€650 million, driven by slowed disease progression in patients treated with gliflozins, with fewer patients cumulatively progressing to end-stage kidney disease (84,526 vs. 92,062). This, in addition to fewer hospitalisations for heart failure and deaths from any cause, led to substantial medical care cost offsets (kidney-related: - €894 million; hospitalisation for heart failure: - €14.3 million; end-of-life care: - €17.3 million) to the additional drug acquisition (€273 million) and treatment-related adverse events costs (€2.98 million). CONCLUSION: In concert with early diagnosis and proactive management of CKD, the expansion of the gliflozin indications into the French CKD population presents the opportunity to reduce the substantial burden associated with cardio-renal complications which outweighs the additional cost of the new treatment. INFOGRAPHIC.

Health Care Resource Utilization and Related Costs of Patients With CKD From the United States: A Report From the DISCOVER CKD Retrospective Cohort.

Introduction: It is well established that chronic kidney disease (CKD) results in a significant burden on patients' health and health care providers. However, detailed estimates of the health care resource utilization (HCRU) of CKD are limited, particularly those which consider severity, comorbidities, and payer type. This study aimed to bridge this evidence gap by reporting contemporary HCRU and costs in patients with CKD across the US health care providers. Methods: Cost and HCRU estimates of CKD and reduced kidney function without CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]: 60-75 and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [UACR]: <30) were derived for US patients included in the DISCOVER CKD cohort study, using linked inpatient and outpatient data from the limited claims-EMR data set (LCED) and TriNetX database. Patients with a history of transplant or undergoing dialysis were not included. HCRU and costs were stratified by CKD severity using UACR and eGFR. Results: Overall health care costs ranged from $26,889 (A1) to $42,139 (A3), and from $28,627 (G2) to $42,902 (G5) per patient per year (PPPY), demonstrating a considerable early disease burden which continued to increase with declining kidney function. The PPPY costs of later stage CKD were particularly notable for patients with concomitant heart failure ($50,191 [A3]) and those covered by commercial payers ($55,735 [A3]). Conclusions: Health care costs and resource use associated with CKD and reduced kidney function pose a substantial burden across health care systems and payers, increasing in line with CKD progression. Early CKD screening, particularly of UACR, paired with proactive disease management may provide both an improvement to patient outcomes and a significant HCRU and cost saving to health care providers.

The Role of Expert Opinion in Projecting Long-Term Survival Outcomes Beyond the Horizon of a Clinical Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical trials often have short follow-ups, and long-term outcomes such as survival must be extrapolated. Current extrapolation methods often produce a wide range of survival values. To minimize uncertainty in projections, we developed a novel method that incorporates formally elicited expert opinion in a Bayesian analysis and used it to extrapolate survival in the placebo arm of DAPA-CKD, a phase 3 trial of dapagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease (NCT03036150). METHODS: A summary of mortality data from 13 studies that included DAPA-CKD-like populations and training on elicitation were provided to six experts. An elicitation survey was used to gather the experts' 10- and 20-year survival estimates for patients in the placebo arm of DAPA-CKD. These estimates were combined with DAPA-CKD mortality and general population mortality (GPM) data in a Bayesian analysis to extrapolate long-term survival using seven parametric distributions. Results were compared with those from standard frequentist approaches (with and without GPM data) that do not incorporate expert opinion. RESULTS: The group expert-elicited estimate for 20-year survival was 31% (lower estimate, 10%; upper estimate, 40%). In the Bayesian analysis, the 20-year extrapolated survival across the seven distributions was 14.9-39.1%, a range that was 2.4- and 1.6-fold smaller than those produced by the frequentist methods (0.0-56.9% without and 0.0-39.2% with GPM data). CONCLUSIONS: Using expert opinion in a Bayesian analysis provided a robust method for extrapolating long-term survival in the placebo arm of DAPA-CKD. The method could be applied to other populations with limited survival data.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin as a Treatment for Chronic Kidney Disease: A Health-Economic Analysis of DAPA-CKD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: CKD imposes a significant burden on patients and health care providers, particularly upon reaching kidney failure when patients may require KRT. The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial demonstrated that dapagliflozin, with standard therapy, reduced CKD progression and KRT requirement. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for the treatment of CKD from payer perspectives in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We constructed a lifetime Markov model to characterize outcomes in patients with CKD on the basis of the DAPA-CKD trial. Health states were defined by eGFR level and KRT type. Direct health care costs and utility values were sourced from published literature and the DAPA-CKD trial, respectively. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum in the United Kingdom and 3% in Germany and Spain. RESULTS: In patients eligible for the DAPA-CKD trial, treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to reduce rates of CKD progression, with patients predicted to spend 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.8 to 2.4) more years in the eGFR range 15-89 ml/min per 1.73 m2 versus standard therapy alone (12.1; 95% credibility interval, 8.9 to 14.1 versus 10.4; 95% credibility interval, 7.7 to 12.4 years). Life expectancy (undiscounted) was correspondingly predicted to increase by 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.7 to 2.5) years (15.5; 95% credibility interval, 11.1 to 18.2 versus 13.8; 95% credibility interval, 9.9 to 16.5 years). This in addition to reduced incidence of adverse clinical outcomes, including hospitalization for heart failure, resulted in modeled quality-adjusted life year (discounted) gains between 0.82 (95% credibility interval, 0.38 to 1.18) and 1.00 (95% credibility interval, 0.46 to 1.41). These gains translated to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $8280, $17,623, and $11,687 in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain, respectively, indicating cost-effectiveness at willingness-to-pay thresholds (United Kingdom: $27,510 per quality-adjusted life year; Germany and Spain: $35,503 per quality-adjusted life year). CONCLUSIONS: In patients meeting the eligibility requirements for the DAPA-CKD trial, dapagliflozin is likely to be a cost-effective treatment within the UK, German, and Spanish health care systems. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD), NCT03036150.

Healthcare resource utilisation and related costs of patients with CKD from the UK: a report from the DISCOVER CKD retrospective cohort.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is widely reported to decrease quality of life, increase morbidity and mortality and cause increased healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) as the disease progresses. However, there is a relative paucity of accurate and recent estimates of HCRU in this patient population. Our aim was to address this evidence gap by reporting HCRU and related costs in patients with CKD from the UK primary and secondary care settings. Methods: HCRU and cost estimates of CKD were derived for UK patients included in the DISCOVER CKD cohort study using clinical records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to external databases. Patients with a history of transplant or undergoing dialysis were not included. HCRU and costs were stratified by CKD severity using the urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Results: Hospitalisation rates more than tripled between low (A1) and high (A3) UACR categories and the mean annual per-patient costs ranged from £4966 (A1) to £9196 (A3) and from £4997 (G2) to £7595 (G5), demonstrating that a large healthcare burden can be attributed to a relatively small number of patients with later stage CKD, including those with kidney failure and/or albuminuria. Conclusions: HCRU and costs associated with CKD impose a substantial burden on the healthcare system, particularly in the more advanced stages of CKD. New interventions that can delay the progression of CKD to kidney failure may not only prolong the patient's life, but would also provide significant resource and cost savings to healthcare providers.

Low Adherence to Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes 2012 CKD Clinical Practice Guidelines Despite Clear Evidence of Utility.

Introduction: Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 2012 guidelines classify chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk or prognosis using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). We assessed patient characteristics and outcomes according to the KDIGO classification, using data from DISCOVER CKD (NCT04034992). Methods: Data were extracted from the US integrated Limited Claims and Electronic Health Record Dataset and TriNetX databases, and the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics databases. Eligible patients were aged ≥18 years with CKD, and identified by 2 consecutive eGFR measures (5 to <75 ml/min/1.73 m2; ≥90 days apart [maximum 730]) from January 2008. Index date was the second eGFR measurement; patients were categorized using the UACR measure closest to the index. Outcomes included patient characteristics, eGFR or UACR measurement frequency, and clinical outcomes per baseline KDIGO classification. Results: Across databases, only 8.6% of patients with 2 eGFR measures had ≥1 UACR measures. Among 123,807 eligible patients, prevalence of heart failure, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes increased with increasing albuminuria. Incidence rates of mortality and adverse cardiovascular and renal outcomes increased with declining baseline eGFR, and particularly with increasing albuminuria. Median number of eGFR and UACR tests per year post-index ranged from 1.6 to 2.5 and 0.5 to 0.6, respectively, across databases; there was no clear increase in UACR testing frequency following the KDIGO 2012 guidelines. Conclusion: Albuminuria monitoring is critical for optimal risk stratification in CKD, and our findings highlight an imperative for more regular UACR testing in clinical practice.

Modeling Chronic Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Literature Review of Models, Data Sources, and Derivation Cohorts.

INTRODUCTION: As novel therapies for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) become available, their long-term benefits should be evaluated using CKD progression models. Existing models offer different modeling approaches that could be reused, but it may be challenging for modelers to assess commonalities and differences between the many available models. Additionally, the data and underlying population characteristics informing model parameters may not always be evident. Therefore, this study reviewed and summarized existing modeling approaches and data sources for CKD in T2DM, as a reference for future model development. METHODS: This systematic literature review included computer simulation models of CKD in T2DM populations. Searches were implemented in PubMed (including MEDLINE), Embase, and the Cochrane Library, up to October 2021. Models were classified as cohort state-transition models (cSTM) or individual patient simulation (IPS) models. Information was extracted on modeled kidney disease states, risk equations for CKD, data sources, and baseline characteristics of derivation cohorts in primary data sources. RESULTS: The review identified 49 models (21 IPS, 28 cSTM). A five-state structure was standard among state-transition models, comprising one kidney disease-free state, three kidney disease states [frequently including albuminuria and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD)], and one death state. Five models captured CKD regression and three included cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk equations most commonly predicted albuminuria and ESKD incidence, while the most predicted CKD sequelae were mortality and CVD. Most data sources were well-established registries, cohort studies, and clinical trials often initiated decades ago in predominantly White populations in high-income countries. Some recent models were developed from country-specific data, particularly for Asian countries, or from clinical outcomes trials. CONCLUSION: Modeling CKD in T2DM is an active research area, with a trend towards IPS models developed from non-Western data and single data sources, primarily recent outcomes trials of novel renoprotective treatments.

The clinical effects of new treatments and their costs are often evaluated over a longer time frame than is possible in clinical trials by using computer simulation models. As new treatments are becoming available to treat chronic kidney disease, including in patients with type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease models may be used to inform clinical and economic decisions regarding these new treatment options. In the present study, we identified 49 published simulation models of chronic kidney disease used in populations with type 2 diabetes, and reviewed their structures and the data sources they used. The models focused mostly on disease states and outcomes associated with albuminuria (a condition in which the protein albumin is found in the urine) and end-stage kidney disease. Model structures with five disease states, including a kidney disease-free state, three kidney disease states, and death, were the most common. Relatively few models used glomerular filtration rates (a common measure of kidney function) or captured the possibility of an improvement in chronic kidney disease. Important data sources for many models were patient registries, cohort studies, and clinical trials, most conducted several decades ago in high-income countries with a high proportion of White participants. Several models developed in the past 5 years, particularly for Asian countries, instead relied largely or exclusively on country-specific data. In parallel, several individual patient simulations were recently developed from large outcomes trials for new treatments, including from trial subgroups covering specific geographical settings or ethnicities, shortly after trial publication.

Cost of End-of-Life Inpatient Encounters in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease in the United States: A Report from the DISCOVER CKD Retrospective Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Real-world data reporting healthcare resource utilisation and costs associated with end-of-life care for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are limited. We examined length of hospitalisation and costs associated with end-of-life inpatient encounters using retrospective data from DISCOVER CKD. METHODS: Data on inpatient encounters for patients with CKD aged ≥ 18 years between January 2016 and March 2020 were extracted from the US Premier Hospital Database. Encounters ending in death were identified and grouped by reason for the encounter, using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, and by their insurance coverage. Encounters were evaluated overall and stratified according to cardiovascular (CV), kidney failure and infection-related reasons, and by their coverage by commercial, Medicaid, Medicare or other insurers. Length of hospitalisation and total costs were calculated for encounters. RESULTS: Among 237,734 encounters ending in death, the mean [standard deviation (SD)] age was 74.2 (12.4) years, and 45.3% of patients were female. In total, 25,118, 4210 and 76,307 encounters were classified as relating to CV reasons, kidney failure and infection, respectively. Among all encounters, the mean (SD) length of hospitalisation ranged from 9.1 (11.2) (Medicare) to 12.8 (18.4) (Medicaid) days. Across insurers, encounters related to kidney failure were associated with the longest hospitalisations compared with CV and infection [mean range (days): 10.7-15.9 vs. 7.5-10.5 and 8.7-12.7, respectively]. The median [interquartile range (IQR)] total cost of any inpatient encounter was $17,057 ($8040-35,873). Kidney failure-related encounters had higher costs compared with CV and infection [median (IQR), $18,469 ($8673-38,315) vs. $17,503 ($7766-39,693) and $16,403 ($7762-34,910), respectively]. Medicaid-covered encounters had the highest costs of all insurers [median (IQR), $16,189 ($7725-33,443)]. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CKD, end-of-life encounters were most frequently related to infection. Encounters relating to kidney failure incurred the highest costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04034992.

Treatments for Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Literature Review of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Delaying disease progression and reducing the risk of mortality are key goals in the treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD). New drug classes to augment renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitors as the standard of care have scarcely met their primary endpoints until recently. This systematic literature review explored treatments evaluated in patients with CKD since 1990 to understand what contemporary data add to the treatment landscape. Eighty-nine clinical trials were identified that had enrolled patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate 13.9-102.8 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) 29.9-2911.0 mg/g, with (75.5%) and without (20.6%) type 2 diabetes (T2D). Clinically objective outcomes of kidney failure and all-cause mortality (ACM) were reported in 32 and 64 trials, respectively. Significant reductions (P < 0.05) in the risk of kidney failure were observed in seven trials: five small trials published before 2008 had evaluated the RAAS inhibitors losartan, benazepril, or ramipril in patients with (n = 751) or without (n = 84-436) T2D; two larger trials (n = 2152-2202) published onwards of 2019 had evaluated the sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors canagliflozin (in patients with T2D and UACR > 300-5000 mg/g) and dapagliflozin (in patients with or without T2D and UACR 200-5000 mg/g) added to a background of RAAS inhibition. Significant reductions in ACM were observed with dapagliflozin in the DAPA-CKD trial. Contemporary data therefore suggest that augmenting RAAS inhibitors with new drug classes has the potential to improve clinical outcomes in a broad range of patients with CKD.

Costs and Healthcare Resource Use Associated with Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: Evidence from a Systematic Literature Review.

INTRODUCTION: The management of chronic kidney disease (CKD) costs in excess of $114 billion in the USA and £1.45 billion in the UK annually and is projected to increase alongside the increasing disease prevalence. The aim of this review was to evaluate the risks of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity, CV mortality or all-cause mortality based on KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) 2012 categorisations and estimate the additional costs and healthcare resource utilisation associated with CV morbidity linked to CKD severity in US and UK settings. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted of studies reporting on the risk of CV morbidity, CV mortality or all-cause mortality characterised by CKD severity (published between January 2000 and September 2018). Additional costs and bed days associated with CKD severity in the USA and UK were estimated on the basis of median hazard ratios for CV morbidity risk at each CKD and albuminuria stage. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies reported risk of adverse clinical outcomes based on KDIGO categorisations. Compared to stage 1 (or without) CKD, patients with stage 5 CKD and macroalbuminuria experienced a relative risk increase of 11.77-12.46 across all outcomes. Additional costs and bed days associated with stage 5 CKD and macroalbuminuria (versus stage 1 (or without) CKD) per 1000 patient years were US$3.93 million and 803 bed days and £435,000 and 1017 bed days, in the USA and UK, respectively. CONCLUSION: Risks of adverse clinical outcomes increase with CKD and albuminuria severity and are associated with substantial additional costs and resource utilisation. Thus, early diagnosis and proactive management of CKD and its complications should be a priority for healthcare providers to alleviate the burden of CV morbidity and its management on healthcare resources.

Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease by KDIGO Categories of Glomerular Filtration Rate and Albuminuria: A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 2012 guidelines recommend classifying patients by glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria to predict chronic kidney disease (CKD) prognosis. The aim of this systematic review was to explore the epidemiological burden of CKD stratified by the KDIGO 2012 categories. METHODS: MEDLINE® and Embase were searched for observational studies of patients with CKD with results stratified according to the KDIGO 2012 classification. Investigated outcomes were prevalence, incidence, and risk factors and complications of CKD, including mortality. RESULTS: The review included ten observational studies with 3033 to 46,949 participants, conducted in the USA, China, France, Italy and Spain. The most frequently reported outcome was the prevalence of CKD (GFR categories G3-5), ranging from 2% to 17%. Most participants were normoalbuminuric, with 0.4-3.2% macroalbuminuric, and most fell within the KDIGO 2012 low-risk or moderate-risk groups, with 0.9-5.6% in the high-risk and 0.3-4.8% in the very high-risk groups. Although scarce, data on the prevalence of comorbidities in CKD according to the KDIGO classification suggest that they increase with albuminuria severity. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CKD frequently have complications, but only a small proportion have severely increased albuminuria or fall within the KDIGO high-risk or very high-risk groups. These groups, however, are associated with the highest burden of disease, as comorbidities are more prevalent with increasing albuminuria severity. New studies framed by the KDIGO 2012 classification are needed to address key gaps in the understanding of CKD burden and outcomes.