No Evidence The Child Tax Credit Expansion Had An Effect On The Well-Being And Mental Health Of Parents.

In 1997 the US established the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which offers payments to parents of dependent children to help defray child-rearing costs. In 2021 a temporary expansion to the CTC increased the size of payments, extended payments to families with low or no earnings, and distributed payments monthly instead of annually. Quasi-experimental evidence from the US and experimental evidence from low- and middle-income countries shows that moderate-to-large cash transfers improve subjective well-being and mental health. We estimated the CTC's expansion's effects on the subjective well-being and mental health of adult recipients, using data from the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative survey with more than 7,000 respondents and more than 2,700 unique respondents with children. We found no evidence that the CTC expansion had a significant short-term impact on measures of life satisfaction, anxiety, and depression symptomology among adult recipients. We speculate that the null effects may be due to the expansion's temporary nature.

The Evolution and Impact of Federal Antipoverty Programs for Children.

Despite our wealth, child poverty in the United States remains too high. The social safety net prevents and mitigates poverty for millions of children each year and evidence demonstrates long-term positive effects for recipients. But absent a commitment to universalism, our public investments in children produce uneven - and often inequitable - results. Our current system is heavily means-tested and work-conditioned. Though heavily targeted, it varies widely in adequacy and coverage by location and across population groups and it fails to serve all children in need. This article describes the evolution of the US social safety net for children over the last century. It traces the early 20th century origins of the contemporary system and the changes it saw through the mid-century's War on Poverty expansions and late 20th century's welfare reforms. Focusing specifically on federal cash and near-cash programs, it discusses key facets and principles of the current social safety net structure, its impact on children's health and economic well-being, remaining gaps, and promising advances for the future. Temporary improvements to the social safety net enacted as part of the pandemic response indicate important ways in which our public supports can reach more families, more consistently, moving forward. To reduce child poverty, one of the most promising approaches is to enact a national child allowance in the United States. Converting the existing Child Tax Credit into a universal child allowance, making it more generous, and delivering it to families on a regular basis throughout the year can accomplish this goal.

Reducing poverty among children: Evidence from state policy simulations.

State approaches to reducing child poverty vary considerably. We exploit this state-level variation to estimate what could be achieved in terms of child poverty if all states adopted the most generous or inclusive states' policies. Specifically, we simulate the child poverty reductions that would occur if every state were as generous or inclusive as the most generous or inclusive state in four key policies: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), and state Child Tax Credits (CTC). We find that adopting the most generous or inclusive state EITC policy would have the largest impact on child poverty, reducing it by 1.2 percentage points, followed by SNAP, TANF, and lastly state CTC. If all states were as generous or inclusive as the most generous or inclusive state in all four policies, the child poverty rate would decrease by 2.5 percentage points, and five and a half million children would be lifted out of poverty.

Young adult poverty in historical perspective: The role of policy supports and early labor market experiences.

Recent research using an improved measure of poverty finds that poverty has fallen by nearly forty percent since the 1960s in the United States. But past research has not examined whether this finding holds across detailed demographic groups who might be more or less vulnerable to poverty. This paper helps fill that gap, focusing on one such vulnerable subgroup: young adults. Using the Current Population Survey, this paper examines long-term trends in young adult poverty in comparison to other groups. In contrast to almost all other groups, young adults have seen no decrease in poverty since the 1960s. We explore potential reasons for this fact, finding that young adults lack access to benefits from government programs, and are increasingly unmarried, living alone, and disconnected from the labor market, factors that leave young adults more vulnerable than other groups to poverty. The findings have implications for how antipoverty policies might assist this vulnerable group.

A Universal Child Allowance: A Plan to Reduce Poverty and Income Instability Among Children in the United States.

To reduce child poverty and income instability, and eliminate extreme poverty among families with children in the United States, we propose converting the Child Tax Credit and child tax exemption into a universal, monthly child allowance. Our proposal is based on principles we argue should undergird the design of such policies: universality, accessibility, adequate payment levels, and more generous support for young children. Whether benefits should decline with additional children to reflect economies of scale is a question policymakers should consider. Analyzing 2015 Current Population Survey data, we estimate our proposed child allowance would reduce child poverty by about 40 percent, deep child poverty by nearly half, and would effectively eliminate extreme child poverty. Annual net cost estimates range from $66 billion to $105 billion.

Effects of Financial Incentives on Saving Outcomes and Material Well-Being: Evidence From a Randomized Controlled Trial in Uganda.

The use of savings products to promote financial inclusion has increasingly become a policy priority across sub-Saharan Africa, yet little is known about how families respond to varying levels of savings incentives and whether the promotion of incentivized savings in low-resource settings may encourage households to restrict expenditures on basic needs. Using data from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda, we examine: 1) whether low-income households enrolled in an economic-empowerment intervention consisting of matched savings, workshops, and mentorship reduced spending on basic needs and 2) how varied levels of matching contributions affected household savings and consumption behavior. We compared primary school-attending AIDS-affected children (N = 1,383) randomized to a control condition with two intervention arms with differing savings-match incentives: 1:1 (Bridges) and 1:2 (Bridges PLUS). We found that: 1) 24 months post-intervention initiation, children in Bridges and Bridges PLUS were more likely to have accumulated savings than children in the control condition; 2) higher match incentives (Bridges PLUS) led to higher deposit frequency but not higher savings in the bank; 3) intervention participation did not result in material hardship; and 4) in both intervention arms, participating families were more likely to start a family business and diversify their assets.

Neighborhood Disadvantage and Telomere Length: Results from the Fragile Families Study.

Telomeres are repetitive nucleotide sequences located at the ends of chromosomes that protect genetic material. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to analyze the relationship between exposure to spatially concentrated disadvantage and telomere length for white and black mothers. We find that neighborhood disadvantage is associated with shorter telomere length for mothers of both races. This finding highlights a potential mechanism through which the unique spatially concentrated disadvantage faced by African Americans contributes to racial health disparities. We conclude that equalizing the health and socioeconomic status of black and white Americans will be very difficult without reducing levels of residential segregation in the United States.

Assets among low-income families in the Great Recession.

This paper examines the association between the Great Recession and real assets among families with young children. Real assets such as homes and cars are key indicators of economic well-being that may be especially valuable to low-income families. Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 4,898), we investigate the association between the city unemployment rate and home and car ownership and how the relationship varies by family structure (married, cohabiting, and single parents) and by race/ethnicity (White, Black, and Hispanic mothers). Using mother fixed-effects models, we find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a -0.5 percentage point decline in the probability of home ownership and a -0.7 percentage point decline in the probability of car ownership. We also find that the recession was associated with lower levels of home ownership for cohabiting families and for Hispanic families, as well as lower car ownership among single mothers and among Black mothers, whereas no change was observed among married families or White households. Considering that homes and cars are the most important assets among middle and low-income households in the U.S., these results suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate during the Great Recession may have increased household asset inequality across family structures and race/ethnicities, limiting economic mobility, and exacerbating the cycle of poverty.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Savings-Led Economic Empowerment Intervention for AIDS-Affected Adolescents in Uganda: Implications for Scale-up in Low-Resource Communities.

PURPOSE: Nearly 12 million children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa have lost one or both parents to AIDS. Within sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda has been greatly impacted, with an estimated 1.2 million orphaned children, nearly half of which have experienced parental loss due to the epidemic. Cost-effective and scalable interventions are needed to improve developmental outcomes for these children, most of whom are growing up in poverty. This article examines the direct impacts and cost-effectiveness of a savings-led family economic empowerment intervention, Bridges to the Future, that employed varying matched savings incentives to encourage investment in Ugandan children orphaned by AIDS. METHODS: Using data from 48 primary schools in southwestern Uganda, we calculate per-person costs in each of the two treatment arms-Bridges (1:1 match savings) versus Bridges PLUS (1:2 match savings); estimate program effectiveness across outcomes of interest; and provide the ratios of per-person costs to their corresponding effectiveness. RESULTS: At the 24-month postintervention initiation, children in the two treatment arms showed better results in health, mental health, and education when compared to the usual care condition; however, no statistically significant differences were found between treatment arms with the exception of school attendance rates which were higher for those in Bridges PLUS. Owing to the minimal cost difference between the Bridges and Bridges PLUS arms, we did not find substantial cost-effectiveness differences across the two treatment arms. CONCLUSION: After 24 months, an economic intervention that incorporated matched savings yielded positive results on critical development outcomes for adolescents orphaned by AIDS in Uganda. The 1:1 and 1:2 match rates did not demonstrate variable levels of cost-effectiveness at 24-month follow-up, suggesting that governments intending to incorporate savings-led interventions within their social protection frameworks may not need to select a higher match rate to see positive developmental outcomes in the short term. Further research is required to understand intervention impacts and cost-effectiveness after a longer follow-up period.

Geography of intergenerational mobility and child development.

Recent research by Chetty and colleagues finds that children's chances of upward mobility are affected by the communities in which they grow up [Chetty R, Hendren N (2016) Working paper 23002]. However, the developmental pathways through which communities of origin translate into future economic gain are not well understood. In this paper we examine the association between Chetty and Hendren's county-level measure of intergenerational mobility and children's cognitive and behavioral development. Focusing on children from low-income families, we find that growing up in a county with high upward mobility is associated with fewer externalizing behavioral problems by age 3 years and with substantial gains in cognitive test scores between ages 3 and 9 years. Growing up in a county with 1 SD better intergenerational mobility accounts for ∼20% of the gap in developmental outcomes between children from low- and high-income families. Collectively, our findings suggest that the developmental processes through which residential contexts promote upward mobility begin early in childhood and involve the enrichment of both cognitive and social-emotional development.

Cohesive Neighborhoods Where Social Expectations Are Shared May Have Positive Impact On Adolescent Mental Health.

Adolescent mental health problems are associated with poor health and well-being in adulthood. We used data from a cohort of 2,264 children born in large US cities in 1998-2000 to examine whether neighborhood collective efficacy (a combination of social cohesion and control) is associated with improvements in adolescent mental health. We found that children who grew up in neighborhoods with high collective efficacy experienced fewer depressive and anxiety symptoms during adolescence than similar children from neighborhoods with low collective efficacy. The magnitude of this neighborhood effect is comparable to the protective effects of depression prevention programs aimed at general or at-risk adolescent populations. Our findings did not vary by family or neighborhood income, which indicates that neighborhood collective efficacy supports adolescent mental health across diverse populations and urban settings. We recommend a greater emphasis on neighborhood environments in individual mental health risk assessments and greater investment in community-based initiatives that strengthen neighborhood social cohesion and control.

Progress on Poverty? New Estimates of Historical Trends Using an Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure.

This study examines historical trends in poverty using an anchored version of the U.S. Census Bureau's recently developed Research Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) estimated back to 1967. Although the SPM is estimated each year using a quasi-relative poverty threshold that varies over time with changes in families' expenditures on a core basket of goods and services, this study explores trends in poverty using an absolute, or anchored, SPM threshold. We believe the anchored measure offers two advantages. First, setting the threshold at the SPM's 2012 levels and estimating it back to 1967, adjusted only for changes in prices, is more directly comparable to the approach taken in official poverty statistics. Second, it allows for a better accounting of the roles that social policy, the labor market, and changing demographics play in trends in poverty rates over time, given that changes in the threshold are held constant. Results indicate that unlike official statistics that have shown poverty rates to be fairly flat since the 1960s, poverty rates have dropped by 40 % when measured using a historical anchored SPM over the same period. Results obtained from comparing poverty rates using a pretax/pretransfer measure of resources versus a post-tax/post-transfer measure of resources further show that government policies, not market incomes, are driving the declines observed over time.

Beyond Income Poverty: Measuring Disadvantage in Terms of Material Hardship and Health.

The New York City (NYC) Longitudinal Study of Wellbeing, or "Poverty Tracker," is a survey of approximately 2300 NYC residents. Its purpose is to provide a multidimensional and dynamic understanding of economic disadvantage in NYC. Measures of disadvantage were collected at baseline and a 12-month follow-up, and include 3 types of disadvantage: 1) income poverty, using a measure on the basis of the new Supplemental Poverty Measure; 2) material hardship, including indicators of food insecurity, housing hardship, unmet medical needs, utility cutoffs, and financial insecurity; and 3) adult health problems, which can drain family time and resources. In this article initial results for NYC families with children younger than the age of 18 years are presented. At baseline, 56% of families with children had 1 or more type of disadvantage, including 28% with income poverty, 39% with material hardship, and 17% with an adult health problem. Even among nonpoor families, 33% experienced material hardship and 14% reported an adult health problem. Two-thirds of all families faced disadvantage at either baseline or follow-up, with 46% experiencing some kind of disadvantage at both time points. Respondents with a college education were much less likely to face disadvantage. Even after adjusting for educational attainment and family characteristics, the families of black and Hispanic respondents had increased rates of disadvantage. Considering income poverty alone the extent of disadvantage among families with children in NYC is greatly understated. These results suggest that in addition to addressing income poverty, policymakers should give priority to efforts to reduce material hardship and help families cope with chronic physical or mental illness. The need for these resources extends far above the poverty line.

Waging War on Poverty: Poverty Trends Using a Historical Supplemental Poverty Measure.

Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and the March Current Population Survey, we provide poverty estimates for 1967 to 2012 based on a historical Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM). During this period, poverty, as officially measured, has stagnated. However, the official poverty measure (OPM) does not account for the effect of near-cash transfers on the financial resources available to families, an important omission since such transfers have become an increasingly important part of government anti-poverty policy. Applying the historical SPM, which does count such transfers, we find that trends in poverty have been more favorable than the OPM suggests and that government policies have played an important and growing role in reducing poverty-a role that is not evident when the OPM is used to assess poverty. We also find that government programs have played a particularly important role in alleviating child poverty and deep poverty, especially during economic downturns.

Family structure instability, genetic sensitivity, and child well-being.

The association between family structure instability and children's life chances is well documented, with children reared in stable, two-parent families experiencing more favorable outcomes than children in other family arrangements. This study examines father household entrances and exits, distinguishing between the entrance of a biological father and a social father and testing for interactions between family structure instability and children's age, gender, and genetic characteristics. Using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study and focusing on changes in family structure by age (years 0-9), the authors show that father exits are associated with increases in children's antisocial behavior, a strong predictor of health and well-being in adulthood. The pattern for father entrances is more complicated, with entrances for the biological father being associated with lower antisocial behavior among boys and social father entrances being associated with higher antisocial behavior. Child's age does not moderate the association; however, genetic information in the models sharpens the findings substantially.

Fragile Families in the American Welfare State.

The proportion of children born out of wedlock is now over 40 percent. At birth, about half of these parents are co-habiting. This paper examines data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing study (N = 4,271) to describe for the first time the role of welfare state benefits in the economic lives of married, cohabiting, and single parent families with young children. Surprisingly, total welfare state benefits received by the three family types are relatively similar. Nearly half of the full incomes of fragile families come from welfare state transfers. For single parent families the proportion is slightly more than two thirds. Though aggregate welfare state transfers are approximately equal across family type and thus change very little as marital status changes, these transfers and the taxes required to finance them cushion family status changes and substantially narrow the gap in full income between married and fragile families.

The Great Recession and Mother's Health.

We use longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study to investigate the impacts of the Great Recession on the health of mothers. We focus on a wide range of physical and mental health outcomes, as well as health behaviors. We find that increases in the unemployment rate decrease self-reported health status and increase smoking and drug use. We also find evidence of heterogeneous impacts. Disadvantaged mothers-African-American, Hispanic, less educated, and unmarried-experience greater deterioration in their health than advantaged mothers-those who are white, married, and college educated.

Private Financial Transfers, Family Income, and the Great Recession.

Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 4,701; 1998-2010), the authors studied whether the unemployment rate was associated with private financial transfers (PFTs) among urban families with young children and whether family income moderated these associations. They found that an increase in the unemployment rate was associated with greater PFT receipt and that family income moderated the association. Poor and near-poor mothers experienced increases in PFT receipt when unemployment rates were high, whereas mothers with incomes between 2 and 3 times the poverty threshold experienced decreases. Simulations estimating the impact of the Great Recession suggest that moving from 5% to 10% unemployment is associated with a 9-percentage-point increase in the predicted probability of receiving a PFT for the sample as a whole, with greater increases in predicted probabilities among poor and near poor mothers.

The prevalence and economic value of doubling up.

"Doubling up" (living with relatives or nonkin) is a common source of support for low-income families, yet no study to date has estimated its economic value relative to other types of public and private support. Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, we examine the prevalence and economic value of doubling up among families with young children living in large American cities. We find that doubling up is a very important part of the private safety net in the first few years of a child's life, with nearly 50 % of mothers reporting at least one instance of doubling up by the time their child is 9 years old. The estimated rental savings from doubling up is significant and comparable in magnitude to other public and private transfers.