A hierarchical kidney outcome using win statistics in patients with heart failure from the DAPA-HF and DELIVER trials.

Win statistics offer a new approach to the analysis of outcomes in clinical trials, allowing the combination of time-to-event and longitudinal measurements and taking into account the clinical importance of the components of composite outcomes, as well as their relative timing. We examined this approach in a post hoc analysis of two trials that compared dapagliflozin to placebo in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (DAPA-HF) and mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction (DELIVER). The effect of dapagliflozin on a hierarchical composite kidney outcome was assessed, including the following: (1) all-cause mortality; (2) end-stage kidney disease; (3) a decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥57%; (4) a decline in eGFR of ≥50%; (5) a decline in eGFR of ≥40%; and (6) participant-level eGFR slope. For this outcome, the win ratio was 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.15) in the combined dataset, 1.08 (95% CI = 1.01-1.16) in the DAPA-HF trial and 1.12 (95% CI = 1.05-1.18) in the DELIVER trial; that is, dapagliflozin was superior to placebo in both trials. The benefits of treatment were consistent in participants with and without baseline kidney disease, and with and without type 2 diabetes. In heart failure trials, win statistics may provide the statistical power to evaluate the effect of treatments on kidney as well as cardiovascular outcomes.

Balcinrenone plus dapagliflozin in patients with heart failure and chronic kidney disease: Results from the phase 2b MIRACLE trial.

AIMS: Many patients with heart failure (HF) have chronic kidney disease (CKD) and may not tolerate mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. We investigated the efficacy and safety of the novel mineralocorticoid receptor modulator balcinrenone in combination with dapagliflozin in a phase 2b study. METHODS AND RESULTS: From January 2021 to October 2023, we randomized 133 adults with symptomatic HF, ejection fraction <60%, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥30 to ≤60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥30 to <3000 mg/g, to receive balcinrenone 15, 50 or 150 mg/day plus dapagliflozin 10 mg/day, or dapagliflozin 10 mg/day plus placebo, for 12 weeks. Enrolment was stopped early because of slow recruitment. Relative reductions in UACR from baseline to week 12 (primary endpoint) were not significantly different between the balcinrenone plus dapagliflozin groups versus dapagliflozin plus placebo. There was no clear balcinrenone dose-response relationship. There were possible dose-dependent increases in serum potassium levels, reduced eGFR in the highest dose group, and non-significant trends towards reduced N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels. Hyperkalaemia adverse events led to discontinuation in two participants receiving balcinrenone plus dapagliflozin and none in those receiving dapagliflozin plus placebo. CONCLUSION: While the smaller than planned sample size limits interpretation, we did not see significant reduction in UACR in patients treated with balcinrenone plus dapagliflozin compared with dapagliflozin plus placebo.

Dapagliflozin and Days of Full Health Lost in the DAPA-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: Conventional time-to-first-event analyses cannot incorporate recurrent hospitalizations and patient well-being in a single outcome. OBJECTIVES: To overcome this limitation, we tested an integrated measure that includes days lost from death and hospitalization, and additional days of full health lost through diminished well-being. METHODS: The effect of dapagliflozin on this integrated measure was assessed in the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) trial, which examined the efficacy of dapagliflozin, compared with placebo, in patients with NYHA functional class II to IV heart failure and a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%. RESULTS: Over 360 days, patients in the dapagliflozin group (n = 2,127) lost 10.6 ± 1.0 (2.9%) of potential follow-up days through cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization, compared with 14.4 ± 1.0 days (4.0%) in the placebo group (n = 2,108), and this component of all measures of days lost accounted for the greatest between-treatment difference (-3.8 days [95% CI: -6.6 to -1.0 days]). Patients receiving dapagliflozin also had fewer days lost to death and hospitalization from all causes vs placebo (15.5 ± 1.1 days [4.3%] vs 20.3 ± 1.1 days [5.6%]). When additional days of full health lost (ie, adjusted for Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-overall summary score) were added, total days lost were 110.6 ± 1.6 days (30.7%) with dapagliflozin vs 116.9 ± 1.6 days (32.5%) with placebo. The difference in all measures between the 2 groups increased over time (ie, days lost by death and hospitalization -0.9 days [-0.7%] at 120 days, -2.3 days [-1.0%] at 240 days, and -4.8 days [-1.3%] at 360 days). CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin reduced the total days of potential full health lost due to death, hospitalizations, and impaired well-being, and this benefit increased over time during the first year. (Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on the Incidence of Worsening Heart Failure or Cardiovascular Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure; NCT03036124).

Development and Validation of a New Hierarchical Composite End Point for Clinical Trials of Kidney Disease Progression.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The established composite kidney end point in clinical trials combines clinical events with sustained large changes in GFR but does not weigh the relative clinical importance of the end point components. By contrast, a hierarchical composite end point (HCE) accounts for the clinical importance of the end point components. The authors developed and validated a kidney HCE that combines clinical kidney outcomes with longitudinal GFR changes (GFR slope). They demonstrate that in seven major placebo-controlled kidney outcome trials with different medications, treatment effect estimates on the HCE were consistently in similar directions and of similar magnitudes compared with treatment effects on the established kidney end point. The HCE's prioritization of clinical outcomes and ability to combine dichotomous outcomes with GFR slope make it an attractive alternative to the established kidney end point. BACKGROUND: The established composite kidney end point in clinical trials combines clinical events with sustained large changes in GFR. However, the statistical method does not weigh the relative clinical importance of the end point components. A HCE accounts for the clinical importance of the end point components and enables combining dichotomous outcomes with continuous measures. METHODS: We developed and validated a new HCE for kidney disease progression, performing post hoc analyses of seven major Phase 3 placebo-controlled trials that assessed the effects of canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, finerenone, atrasentan, losartan, irbesartan, and aliskiren in patients with CKD. We calculated the win odds (WOs) for treatment effects on a kidney HCE, defined as a hierarchical composite of all-cause mortality; kidney failure; sustained 57%, 50%, and 40% GFR declines from baseline; and GFR slope. The WO describes the odds of a more favorable outcome for receiving the active compared with the control. We compared the WO with the hazard ratio (HR) of the primary kidney outcome of the original trials. RESULTS: In all trials, treatment effects calculated with the WO reflected a similar direction and magnitude of the treatment effect compared with the HR. Clinical trials incorporating the HCE would achieve increased statistical power compared with the established composite end point at equivalent sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: In seven major kidney clinical trials, the WO and HR provided similar direction of treatment effect estimates with smaller HRs associated with larger WOs. The prioritization of clinical outcomes and inclusion of broader composite end points makes the HCE an attractive alternative to the established kidney end point.

Validity and Utility of a Hierarchical Composite End Point for Clinical Trials of Kidney Disease Progression: A Review.

Clinical trials in nephrology often use composite end points comprising clinical events, such as onset of ESKD and initiation of kidney function replacement therapy, along with a sustained large ( e.g. , ≥50%) decrease in GFR. Such events typically occur late in the disease course, resulting in large trials in which most participants do not contribute clinical events. In addition, components of the end point are considered of equal importance; however, their clinical significance varies. For example, kidney function replacement therapy initiation is likely to be clinically more meaningful than GFR decline of ≥50%. By contrast, hierarchical composite end points (HCEs) combine multiple outcomes and prioritize each patient's most clinically relevant outcome for inclusion in analysis. In this review, we consider the use of HCEs in clinical trials of CKD progression, emphasizing the potential to combine dichotomous clinical events such as those typically used in CKD progression trials, with the continuous variable of GFR over time, while ranking all components according to clinical significance. We consider maraca plots to visualize overall treatment effects and the contributions of individual components, discuss the application of win odds in kidney HCE trials, and review general design considerations for clinical trials for CKD progression with kidney HCE as an efficacy end point.

Effect of Dapagliflozin on Total Heart Failure Events in Patients With Heart Failure With Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Prespecified Analysis of the DELIVER Trial.

Importance: In the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of time to first worsening heart failure (HF) event or cardiovascular death in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction (EF). Objective: To evaluate the effect of dapagliflozin on total (ie, first and recurrent) HF events and cardiovascular death in this population. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prespecified analysis of the DELIVER trial, the proportional rates approach of Lin, Wei, Yang, and Ying (LWYY) and a joint frailty model were used to examine the effect of dapagliflozin on total HF events and cardiovascular death. Several subgroups were examined to test for heterogeneity in the effect of dapagliflozin, including left ventricular EF. Participants were enrolled from August 2018 to December 2020, and data were analyzed from August to October 2022. Interventions: Dapagliflozin, 10 mg, once daily or matching placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome was total episodes of worsening HF (hospitalization for HF or urgent HF visit requiring intravenous HF therapies) and cardiovascular death. Results: Of 6263 included patients, 2747 (43.9%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 71.7 (9.6) years. There were 1057 HF events and cardiovascular deaths in the placebo group compared with 815 in the dapagliflozin group. Patients with more HF events had features of more severe HF, such as higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, worse kidney function, more prior HF hospitalizations, and longer duration of HF, although EF was similar to those with no HF events. In the LWYY model, the rate ratio for total HF events and cardiovascular death for dapagliflozin compared with placebo was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.89; P < .001) compared with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.73-0.92; P < .001) in a traditional time to first event analysis. In the joint frailty model, the rate ratio was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81; P < .001) for total HF events and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.72-1.05; P = .14) for cardiovascular death. The results were similar for total HF hospitalizations (without urgent HF visits) and cardiovascular death and in all subgroups, including those defined by EF. Conclusions and Relevance: In the DELIVER trial, dapagliflozin reduced the rate of total HF events (first and subsequent HF hospitalizations and urgent HF visits) and cardiovascular death regardless of patient characteristics, including EF. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03619213.

The maraca plot: A novel visualization of hierarchical composite endpoints.

BACKGROUND: Hierarchical composite endpoints are complex endpoints combining outcomes of different types and different clinical importance into an ordinal outcome that prioritizes the clinically most important (e.g. most severe) event of a patient. Hierarchical composite endpoint can be analysed with the win odds, an adaptation of win ratio to include ties. One of the difficulties in interpreting hierarchical composite endpoint is the lack of proper tools for visualizing the treatment effect captured by hierarchical composite endpoint, given the complex nature of the endpoint which combines events of different types. METHODS: Hierarchical composite endpoints usually combine time-to-event outcomes and continuous outcomes into a composite; hence, it is important to capture not only the shift from more severe categories to less severe categories in the active group in comparison to the control group (as in any ordinal endpoint), but also changes occurring within each category. We introduce the novel maraca plot which combines violin plots (with nested box plots) to visualize the density of the distribution of the continuous outcome and Kaplan-Meier plots for time-to-event outcomes into a comprehensive visualization. CONCLUSION: The novel maraca plot is suggested for visualization of hierarchical composite endpoints consisting of several time-to-event outcomes and a continuous outcome. It has a very simple structure and therefore easily communicates both the overall treatment effect and the effect on individual components.

Use of Win Statistics to Analyze Outcomes in the DAPA-HF and DELIVER Trials.

BACKGROUND: The primary end point in most heart failure (HF) trials is a composite of time to a first worsening HF event or cardiovascular death. Prevention of recurrent events and improvements in symptoms/quality of life are also important for patients but are usually analyzed separately. Win statistics can integrate all these outcomes into a single composite end point, which is analyzed in hierarchical order, reflecting the clinical importance of each component. METHODS: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF, n=4744) and Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients with Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER, n=6263) trials enrolled patients with New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV HF, elevated natriuretic peptides, and either an ejection fraction of 40% or less (DAPA-HF) or greater than 40% and left atrial enlargement/left ventricular hypertrophy (DELIVER). We examined the effects of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on a hierarchical composite outcome, including cardiovascular death, total (first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations, total urgent HF visits, and improvement/deterioration in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score (KCCQ-TSS; range from 0 to 100, with a higher score indicating fewer symptoms and physical limitations) at 8 months. RESULTS: For this composite outcome, the win ratio was 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 1.36) in the pooled cohort, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.23 to 1.43) in the DAPA-HF trial, and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.18 to 1.36) in the DELIVER trial. Win odds and net benefit in overall patients were 1.19 (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.24) and 8.7% (95% CI, 6.6 to 10.9%), respectively. In the overall pooled cohort, the majority of wins and losses were accounted for by KCCQ-TSS; 52.4% were settled by the KCCQ-TSS tier in the pooled cohort. CONCLUSIONS: In both the DAPA-HF and DELIVER trials, dapagliflozin led to a significant improvement in composite outcomes that incorporated patient-reported outcomes along with total HF events, as well as cardiovascular deaths. These analyses provided a comprehensive presentation of win statistics and illustrated the utility and flexibility of win statistics in describing the effects of dapagliflozin in two recent clinical trials in patients with HF. (Funded by British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence and others; clinical trial registration numbers, NCT03036124 and NCT03619213.)

Dapagliflozin across the range of ejection fraction in patients with heart failure: a patient-level, pooled meta-analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER.

Whether the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor dapagliflozin reduces the risk of a range of morbidity and mortality outcomes in patients with heart failure regardless of ejection fraction is unknown. A patient-level pooled meta-analysis of two trials testing dapagliflozin in participants with heart failure and different ranges of left ventricular ejection fraction (≤40% and >40%) was pre-specified to examine the effect of treatment on endpoints that neither trial, individually, was powered for and to test the consistency of the effect of dapagliflozin across the range of ejection fractions. The pre-specified endpoints were: death from cardiovascular causes; death from any cause; total hospital admissions for heart failure; and the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction or stroke (major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs)). A total of 11,007 participants with a mean ejection fraction of 44% (s.d. 14%) were included. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.97; P = 0.01), death from any cause (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99; P = 0.03), total hospital admissions for heart failure (rate ratio 0.71, 95% CI 0.65-0.78; P < 0.001) and MACEs (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-1.00; P = 0.045). There was no evidence that the effect of dapagliflozin differed by ejection fraction. In a patient-level pooled meta-analysis covering the full range of ejection fractions in patients with heart failure, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and hospital admissions for heart failure (PROSPERO: CRD42022346524).

Design and Analysis of Studies Based on Hierarchical Composite Endpoints: Insights from the DARE-19 Trial.

BACKGROUND/AIM: DARE-19 (NCT04350593) was a randomized trial studying the effects of dapagliflozin, an SGLT2 inhibitor, in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and cardiometabolic risk factors. The conduct of DARE-19 offered the opportunity to define an innovative and clinically meaningful endpoint in a new disease that would best reflect the known profile of dapagliflozin, accompanied by the statistical challenges of analysis and interpretation of such a novel endpoint. METHODS: Hierarchical composite endpoints (HCEs) are based on clinical outcomes which, unlike traditional composite endpoints incorporate ranking of components according to clinical importance. Design of an HCE requires the clinical considerations specific to the therapeutic area under study and the mechanism of action of the investigational treatment. Statistical aspects for the clinical endpoints include the proper definition of the estimand as suggested by ICH E9(R1) for the precise specification of the treatment effect measured by an HCE. RESULTS: We describe the estimand of the DARE-19 trial, where an HCE was constructed to capture the treatment effect of dapagliflozin in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and was analyzed using a win odds. Practical aspects of designing new studies based on an HCE are described. These include sample size, power, and minimal detectable effect calculations for an HCE based on the win odds analysis, as well as handling of missing data and the clinical interpretability of the win odds in relation to the estimand. CONCLUSIONS: HCEs are flexible endpoints that can be adapted for use in different therapeutic areas, with win odds as the analysis method. DARE-19 is an example of a COVID-19 trial with an HCE as one of the primary endpoints for estimating a clinically interpretable treatment effect in the COVID-19 setting.

Dapagliflozin and Kidney Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Infection: An Analysis of the DARE-19 Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients who were hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection are at high risk of AKI and KRT, especially in the presence of CKD. The Dapagliflozin in Respiratory Failure in Patients with COVID-19 (DARE-19) trial showed that in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, treatment with dapagliflozin versus placebo resulted in numerically fewer participants who experienced organ failure or death, although these differences were not statistically significant. We performed a secondary analysis of the DARE-19 trial to determine the efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin on kidney outcomes in the overall population and in prespecified subgroups of participants defined by baseline eGFR. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: The DARE-19 trial randomized 1250 patients who were hospitalized (231 [18%] had eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) with COVID-19 and cardiometabolic risk factors to dapagliflozin or placebo. Dual primary outcomes (time to new or worsened organ dysfunction or death, and a hierarchical composite end point of recovery [change in clinical status by day 30]), and the key secondary kidney outcome (composite of AKI, KRT, or death), and safety were assessed in participants with baseline eGFR <60 and ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. RESULTS: The effect of dapagliflozin versus placebo on the primary prevention outcome (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 1.10), primary recovery outcome (win ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.22), and the composite kidney outcome (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 1.07) were consistent across eGFR subgroups (P for interaction: 0.98, 0.67, and 0.44, respectively). The effects of dapagliflozin on AKI were also similar in participants with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 1.77) and ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.37 to 1.29). Dapagliflozin was well tolerated in participants with eGFR <60 and ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of dapagliflozin on primary and secondary outcomes in hospitalized participants with COVID-19 were consistent in those with eGFR below/above 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Dapagliflozin was well tolerated and did not increase the risk of AKI in participants with eGFR below or above 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2.

Power and sample size calculation for the win odds test: application to an ordinal endpoint in COVID-19 trials.

The win odds is a distribution-free method of comparing locations of distributions of two independent random variables. Introduced as a method for analyzing hierarchical composite endpoints, it is well suited to be used in the analysis of ordinal scale endpoints in COVID-19 clinical trials. For a single outcome, we provide power and sample size calculation formulas for the win odds test. We also provide an implementation of the win odds analysis method for a single ordinal outcome in a commonly used statistical software to make the win odds analysis fully reproducible.

Dapagliflozin in patients with cardiometabolic risk factors hospitalised with COVID-19 (DARE-19): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 can lead to multiorgan failure. Dapagliflozin, a SGLT2 inhibitor, has significant protective benefits for the heart and kidney. We aimed to see whether this agent might provide organ protection in patients with COVID-19 by affecting processes dysregulated during acute illness. METHODS: DARE-19 was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and with at least one cardiometabolic risk factor (ie, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease). Patients critically ill at screening were excluded. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to dapagliflozin (10 mg daily orally) or matched placebo for 30 days. Dual primary outcomes were assessed in the intention-to-treat population: the outcome of prevention (time to new or worsened organ dysfunction or death), and the hierarchial composite outcome of recovery (change in clinical status by day 30). Safety outcomes, in patients who received at least one study medication dose, included serious adverse events, adverse events leading to discontinuation, and adverse events of interest. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04350593. FINDINGS: Between April 22, 2020 and Jan 1, 2021, 1250 patients were randomly assigned with 625 in each group. The primary composite outcome of prevention showed organ dysfunction or death occurred in 70 patients (11·2%) in the dapagliflozin group, and 86 (13·8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·80, 95% CI 0·58-1·10; p=0·17). For the primary outcome of recovery, 547 patients (87·5%) in the dapagliflozin group and 532 (85·1%) in the placebo group showed clinical status improvement, although this was not statistically significant (win ratio 1·09, 95% CI 0·97-1·22; p=0·14). There were 41 deaths (6·6%) in the dapagliflozin group, and 54 (8·6%) in the placebo group (HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·52-1·16). Serious adverse events were reported in 65 (10·6%) of 613 patients treated with dapagliflozin and in 82 (13·3%) of 616 patients given the placebo. INTERPRETATION: In patients with cardiometabolic risk factors who were hospitalised with COVID-19, treatment with dapagliflozin did not result in a statistically significant risk reduction in organ dysfunction or death, or improvement in clinical recovery, but was well tolerated. FUNDING: AstraZeneca.

Dapagliflozin and Recurrent Heart Failure Hospitalizations in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: An Analysis of DAPA-HF.

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction will experience multiple hospitalizations for heart failure during the course of their disease. We assessed the efficacy of dapagliflozin on reducing the rate of total (ie, first and repeat) hospitalizations for heart failure in the DAPA-HF trial (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse-Outcomes in Heart Failure). METHODS: The total number of HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular deaths was examined by using the proportional-rates approach of Lei-Wei-Yang-Ying and a joint frailty model for each of recurrent HF hospitalizations and time to cardiovascular death. Variables associated with the risk of recurrent hospitalizations were explored in a multivariable Lei-Wei-Yang-Ying model. RESULTS: Of 2371 participants randomly assigned to placebo, 318 experienced 469 hospitalizations for HF; of 2373 assigned to dapagliflozin, 230 patients experienced 340 admissions. In a multivariable model, factors associated with a higher risk of recurrent HF hospitalizations included higher heart rate, higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and New York Heart Association class. In the Lei-Wei-Yang-Ying model, the rate ratio for the effect of dapagliflozin on recurrent HF hospitalizations or cardiovascular death was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.88), P=0.0002. In the joint frailty model, the rate ratio for total HF hospitalizations was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.61-0.82), P<0.0001, whereas, for cardiovascular death, the hazard ratio was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.67-0.98), P=0.0282. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of total (first and repeat) HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death. Time-to-first event analysis underestimated the benefit of dapagliflozin in HF and reduced ejection fraction. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036124.

Effects of dapagliflozin on prevention of major clinical events and recovery in patients with respiratory failure because of COVID-19: Design and rationale for the DARE-19 study.

AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. It can lead to multiorgan failure, including respiratory and cardiovascular decompensation, and kidney injury, with significant associated morbidity and mortality, particularly in patients with underlying metabolic, cardiovascular, respiratory or kidney disease. Dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor, has shown significant cardio- and renoprotective benefits in patients with type 2 diabetes (with and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease), heart failure and chronic kidney disease, and may provide similar organ protection in high-risk patients with COVID-19. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DARE-19 (NCT04350593) is an investigator-initiated, collaborative, international, multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study testing the dual hypotheses that dapagliflozin can reduce the incidence of cardiovascular, kidney and/or respiratory complications or all-cause mortality, or improve clinical recovery, in adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 but not critically ill on admission. Eligible patients will have ≥1 cardiometabolic risk factor for COVID-19 complications. Patients will be randomized 1:1 to dapagliflozin 10 mg or placebo. Primary efficacy endpoints are time to development of new or worsened organ dysfunction during index hospitalization, or all-cause mortality, and the hierarchical composite endpoint of change in clinical status through day 30 of treatment. Safety of dapagliflozin in individuals with COVID-19 will be assessed. CONCLUSIONS: DARE-19 will evaluate whether dapagliflozin can prevent COVID-19-related complications and all-cause mortality, or improve clinical recovery, and assess the safety profile of dapagliflozin in this patient population. Currently, DARE-19 is the first large randomized controlled trial investigating use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in patients with COVID-19.

Adjusted win ratio with stratification: Calculation methods and interpretation.

The win ratio is a general method of comparing locations of distributions of two independent, ordinal random variables, and it can be estimated without distributional assumptions. In this paper we provide a unified theory of win ratio estimation in the presence of stratification and adjustment by a numeric variable. Building step by step on the estimate of the crude win ratio we compare corresponding tests with well known non-parametric tests of group difference (Wilcoxon rank-sum test, Fligner-Policello test, van Elteren test, test based on the regression on ranks, and the rank analysis of covariance test). We show that the win ratio gives an interpretable treatment effect measure with corresponding test to detect treatment effect difference under minimal assumptions.