DrivR-Base: a feature extraction toolkit for variant effect prediction model construction.

MOTIVATION: Recent advancements in sequencing technologies have led to the discovery of numerous variants in the human genome. However, understanding their precise roles in diseases remains challenging due to their complex functional mechanisms. Various methodologies have emerged to predict the pathogenic significance of these genetic variants. Typically, these methods employ an integrative approach, leveraging diverse data sources that provide important insights into genomic function. Despite the abundance of publicly available data sources and databases, the process of navigating, extracting, and pre-processing features for machine learning models can be highly challenging and time-consuming. Furthermore, researchers often invest substantial effort in feature extraction, only to later discover that these features lack informativeness. RESULTS: In this article, we introduce DrivR-Base, an innovative resource that efficiently extracts and integrates molecular information (features) related to single nucleotide variants. These features encompass information about the genomic positions and the associated protein positions of a variant. They are derived from a wide array of databases and tools, including structural properties obtained from AlphaFold, regulatory information sourced from ENCODE, and predicted variant consequences from Variant Effect Predictor. DrivR-Base is easily deployable via a Docker container to ensure reproducibility and ease of access across diverse computational environments. The resulting features can be used as input for machine learning models designed to predict the pathogenic impact of human genome variants in disease. Moreover, these feature sets have applications beyond this, including haploinsufficiency prediction and the development of drug repurposing tools. We describe the resource's development, practical applications, and potential for future expansion and enhancement. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: DrivR-Base source code is available at https://github.com/amyfrancis97/DrivR-Base.

Protein identification for stroke progression via Mendelian Randomization in Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank.

Background: Individuals who have experienced a stroke, or transient ischemic attack, face a heightened risk of future cardiovascular events. Identification of genetic and molecular risk factors for subsequent cardiovascular outcomes may identify effective therapeutic targets to improve prognosis after an incident stroke. Methods: We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (Ncases=51,929, Ncntrl=39,980) and subsequent arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) Ncases=45,120, Ncntrl=46,789) after first incident stroke within the Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank. We then used genetic variants associated with proteins (pQTLs) to determine the effect of 1,463 plasma protein abundances on subsequent MACE using Mendelian randomization (MR). Results: Two variants were significantly associated with subsequent cardiovascular events: rs76472767 (OR=0.75, 95% CI = 0.64-0.85, p= 3.69×10-08) with subsequent AIS and rs13294166 (OR=1.52, 95% CI = 1.37-1.67, p=3.77×10-08) with subsequent MACE. Using MR, we identified 2 proteins with an effect on subsequent MACE after a stroke: CCL27 (effect OR= 0.77, 95% CI = 0.66-0.88, adj. p=0.05), and TNFRSF14 (effect OR=1.42, 95% CI = 1.24-1.60, adj. p=0.006). These proteins are not associated with incident AIS and are implicated to have a role in inflammation. Conclusions: We found evidence that two proteins with little effect on incident stroke appear to influence subsequent MACE after incident AIS. These associations suggest that inflammation is a contributing factor to subsequent MACE outcomes after incident AIS and highlights potential novel targets.

Causal relationships between anthropometric traits, bone mineral density, osteoarthritis and spinal stenosis: A Mendelian randomisation investigation.

OBJECTIVE: Spinal stenosis is a common condition among older individuals, with significant morbidity attached. Little is known about its risk factors but degenerative conditions, such as osteoarthritis (OA) have been identified for their mechanistic role. This study aims to explore causal relationships between anthropometric risk factors, OA, and spinal stenosis using Mendelian randomisation (MR) techniques. DESIGN: We applied two-sample MR to investigate the causal relationships between genetic liability for select risk factors and spinal stenosis. Next, we examined the genetic relationship between OA and spinal stenosis with linkage disequilibrium score regression and Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates MR method. Finally, we used multivariable MR (MVMR) to explore whether OA and body mass index (BMI) mediate the causal pathways identified. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed strong evidence for the effect of higher BMI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.54, 95%CI: 1.41-1.69, p-value = 2.7 × 10-21), waist (OR = 1.43, 95%CI: 1.15-1.79, p-value = 1.5 × 10-3) and hip (OR = 1.50, 95%CI: 1.27-1.78, p-value = 3.3 × 10-6) circumference on spinal stenosis. Strong evidence of causality was also observed for higher bone mineral density (BMD): total body (OR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.12-1.29, p-value = 1.6 × 10-7), femoral neck (OR = 1.35, 95%CI: 1.09-1.37, p-value = 7.5×10-7), and lumbar spine (OR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.25-1.52, p-value = 4.4 × 10-11). We detected high genetic correlations between spinal stenosis and OA (rg range: 0.47-0.66), with Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates results supporting a causal effect of OA on spinal stenosis (ORallOA = 1.6, 95%CI: 1.41-1.79). Direct effects of BMI, BMD on spinal stenosis remained after adjusting for OA in the MVMR. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic susceptibility to anthropometric risk factors, particularly higher BMI and BMD can increase the risk of spinal stenosis, independent of OA status. These results may inform preventative strategies and treatments.

Effects of the maternal and fetal proteome on birth weight: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Fetal growth is an indicator of fetal survival, regulated by maternal and fetal factors, but little is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms. We used Mendelian randomization to explore the effects of maternal and fetal genetically-instrumented plasma proteins on birth weight using genome-wide association summary data (n=406,063 with maternal and/or fetal genotype), with independent replication (n=74,932 mothers and n=62,108 offspring), and colocalisation. Higher genetically-predicted maternal levels of PCSK1 increased birthweight (mean-difference: 9g (95% CI: 5g, 13g) per 1 standard deviation protein level). Higher maternal levels of LGALS4 decreased birthweight (-54g (-29g, -80g)), as did VCAM1, RAD51D and GP1BA. In the offspring, higher genetically-predicted fetal levels of LGALS4 (46g (23g, 70g)) increased birthweight, alongside FCGR2B. Higher offspring levels of PCSK1 decreased birth weight (-9g (-16g, 4g), alongside LEPR. Results support maternal and fetal protein effects on birth weight, implicating roles for glucose metabolism, energy homeostasis, endothelial function and adipocyte differentiation.

The tumor multi-omic landscape of endometrial cancers developed on a germline genetic background of adiposity.

High body mass index (BMI) is a causal risk factor for endometrial cancer but the tumor molecular mechanisms affected by adiposity and their therapeutic relevance remain poorly understood. Here we characterize the tumor multi-omic landscape of endometrial cancers that have developed on a background of lifelong germline genetic exposure to elevated BMI. We built a polygenic score (PGS) for BMI in women using data on independent, genome-wide significant variants associated with adult BMI in 434,794 women. We performed germline (blood) genotype quality control and imputation on data from 354 endometrial cancer cases from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We assigned each case in this TCGA cohort their genetically predicted life-course BMI based on the BMI PGS. Multivariable generalized linear models adjusted for age, stage, microsatellite status and genetic principal components were used to test for associations between the BMI germline PGS and endometrial cancer tumor genome-wide genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, epigenomic and immune traits in TCGA. High BMI germline PGS was associated with (i) upregulated tumor gene expression in the IL6-JAK-STAT3 pathway (FDR=4.2×10-7); (ii) increased estimated intra-tumor activated mast cell infiltration (FDR=0.008); (iii) increased single base substitution (SBS) mutational signatures 1 (FDR=0.03) and 5 (FDR=0.09) and decreased SBS13 (FDR=0.09), implicating age-related and APOBEC mutagenesis, respectively; and (iv) decreased tumor EGFR protein expression (FDR=0.07). Alterations in IL6-JAK-STAT3 signaling gene and EGFR protein expression were, in turn, significantly associated with both overall survival and progression-free interval. Thus, we integrated germline and somatic data using a novel study design to identify associations between genetically predicted lifelong exposure to higher BMI and potentially actionable endometrial cancer tumor molecular features. These associations inform our understanding of how high BMI may influence the development and progression of this cancer, impacting endometrial tumor biology and clinical outcomes.

Systematic comparison of Mendelian randomisation studies and randomised controlled trials using electronic databases.

OBJECTIVE: To scope the potential for (semi)-automated triangulation of Mendelian randomisation (MR) and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evidence since the two methods have distinct assumptions that make comparisons between their results invaluable. METHODS: We mined ClinicalTrials.Gov, PubMed and EpigraphDB databases and carried out a series of 26 manual literature comparisons among 54 MR and 77 RCT publications. RESULTS: We found that only 13% of completed RCTs identified in ClinicalTrials.Gov submitted their results to the database. Similarly low coverage was revealed for Semantic Medline (SemMedDB) semantic triples derived from MR and RCT publications -36% and 12%, respectively. Among intervention types that can be mimicked by MR, only trials of pharmaceutical interventions could be automatically matched to MR results due to insufficient annotation with Medical Subject Headings ontology. A manual survey of the literature highlighted the potential for triangulation across a number of exposure/outcome pairs if these challenges can be addressed. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that careful triangulation of MR with RCT evidence should involve consideration of similarity of phenotypes across study designs, intervention intensity and duration, study population demography and health status, comparator group, intervention goal and quality of evidence.

Efficacy of metformin targets on cardiometabolic health in the general population and non-diabetic individuals: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Metformin shows beneficial effects on cardiometabolic health in diabetic individuals. However, the beneficial effects in the general population, especially in non-diabetic individuals are unclear. We aim to estimate the effects of perturbation of seven metformin targets on cardiometabolic health using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: Genetic variants close to metformin-targeted genes associated with expression of the corresponding genes and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level were used to proxy therapeutic effects of seven metformin-related drug targets. Eight cardiometabolic phenotypes under metformin trials were selected as outcomes (average N = 466,947). MR estimates representing the weighted average effects of the seven effects of metformin targets on the eight outcomes were generated. One-sample MR was applied to estimate the averaged and target-specific effects in 338,425 non-diabetic individuals in UK Biobank. FINDINGS: Genetically proxied averaged effects of five metformin targets, equivalent to a 0.62% reduction of HbA1c level, was associated with 37.8% lower risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) (odds ratio [OR] = 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.46-0.84), lower levels of body mass index (BMI) (ß = -0.22, 95% CI = -0.35 to -0.09), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (ß = -0.19, 95% CI = -0.28 to -0.09) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels (ß = -0.29, 95% CI = -0.39 to -0.19). One-sample MR suggested that the seven metformin targets showed averaged and target-specific beneficial effects on BMI, SBP and DBP in non-diabetic individuals. INTERPRETATION: This study showed that perturbation of seven metformin targets has beneficial effects on BMI and blood pressure in non-diabetic individuals. Clinical trials are needed to investigate whether similar effects can be achieved with metformin medications. FUNDING: Funding information is provided in the Acknowledgements.

Triangulating evidence from observational and Mendelian randomization studies of ketone bodies for cognitive performance.

BACKGROUND: Ketone bodies (KBs) are an alternative energy supply for brain functions when glucose is limited. The most abundant ketone metabolite, 3-ß-hydroxybutyrate (BOHBUT), has been suggested to prevent or delay cognitive impairment, but the evidence remains unclear. We triangulated observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies to investigate the association and causation between KBs and cognitive function. METHODS: In observational analyses of 5506 participants aged ≥ 45 years from the Whitehall II study, we used multiple linear regression to investigate the associations between categorized KBs and cognitive function scores. Two-sample MR was carried out using summary statistics from an in-house KBs meta-analysis between the University College London-London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium and Kettunen et al. (N = 45,031), and publicly available summary statistics of cognitive performance and Alzheimer's disease (AD) from the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (N = 257,841), and the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (N = 54,162), respectively. Both strong (P < 5 × 10-8) and suggestive (P < 1 × 10-5) sets of instrumental variables for BOHBUT were applied. Finally, we performed cis-MR on OXCT1, a well-known gene for KB catabolism. RESULTS: BOHBUT was positively associated with general cognitive function (ß = 0.26, P = 9.74 × 10-3). In MR analyses, we observed a protective effect of BOHBUT on cognitive performance (inverse variance weighted: ßIVW = 7.89 × 10-2, PIVW = 1.03 × 10-2; weighted median: ßW-Median = 8.65 × 10-2, PW-Median = 9.60 × 10-3) and a protective effect on AD (ßIVW = - 0.31, odds ratio: OR = 0.74, PIVW = 3.06 × 10-2). Cis-MR showed little evidence of therapeutic modulation of OXCT1 on cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Triangulation of evidence suggests that BOHBUT has a beneficial effect on cognitive performance. Our findings raise the hypothesis that increased BOHBUT may improve general cognitive functions, delaying cognitive impairment and reducing the risk of AD.

Using language models and ontology topology to perform semantic mapping of traits between biomedical datasets.

MOTIVATION: Human traits are typically represented in both the biomedical literature and large population studies as descriptive text strings. Whilst a number of ontologies exist, none of these perfectly represent the entire human phenome and exposome. Mapping trait names across large datasets is therefore time-consuming and challenging. Recent developments in language modelling have created new methods for semantic representation of words and phrases, and these methods offer new opportunities to map human trait names in the form of words and short phrases, both to ontologies and to each other. Here, we present a comparison between a range of established and more recent language modelling approaches for the task of mapping trait names from UK Biobank to the Experimental Factor Ontology (EFO), and also explore how they compare to each other in direct trait-to-trait mapping. RESULTS: In our analyses of 1191 traits from UK Biobank with manual EFO mappings, the BioSentVec model performed best at predicting these, matching 40.3% of the manual mappings correctly. The BlueBERT-EFO model (finetuned on EFO) performed nearly as well (38.8% of traits matching the manual mapping). In contrast, Levenshtein edit distance only mapped 22% of traits correctly. Pairwise mapping of traits to each other demonstrated that many of the models can accurately group similar traits based on their semantic similarity. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Our code is available at https://github.com/MRCIEU/vectology.

The association between genetically elevated polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of cancer.

BACKGROUND: The causal relevance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for risk of site-specific cancers remains uncertain. METHODS: Using a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we assessed the causal relevance of PUFAs for risk of cancer in European and East Asian ancestry individuals. We defined the primary exposure as PUFA desaturase activity, proxied by rs174546 at the FADS locus. Secondary exposures were defined as omega 3 and omega 6 PUFAs that could be proxied by genetic polymorphisms outside the FADS region. Our study used summary genetic data on 10 PUFAs and 67 cancers, corresponding to 562,871 cases and 1,619,465 controls, collected by the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for cancer per standard deviation increase in genetically proxied PUFA exposures. FINDINGS: Genetically elevated PUFA desaturase activity was associated (P < 0.0007) with higher risk (OR [95% confidence interval]) of colorectal cancer (1.09 [1.07-1.11]), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.16 [1.06-1.26]), lung cancer (1.06 [1.03-1.08]) and basal cell carcinoma (1.05 [1.02-1.07]). There was little evidence for associations with reproductive cancers (OR = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.99-1.01]; Pheterogeneity = 0.25), urinary system cancers (1.03 [0.99-1.06], Pheterogeneity = 0.51), nervous system cancers (0.99 [0.95-1.03], Pheterogeneity = 0.92) or blood cancers (1.01 [0.98-1.04], Pheterogeneity = 0.09). Findings for colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remained compatible with causality in sensitivity analyses for violations of assumptions. Secondary MR analyses highlighted higher omega 6 PUFAs (arachidonic acid, gamma-linolenic acid and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid) as potential mediators. PUFA biosynthesis is known to interact with aspirin, which increases risk of bleeding and inflammatory bowel disease. In a phenome-wide MR study of non-neoplastic diseases, we found that genetic lowering of PUFA desaturase activity, mimicking a hypothetical intervention to reduce cancer risk, was associated (P < 0.0006) with increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease but not bleeding. INTERPRETATION: The PUFA biosynthesis pathway may be an intervention target for prevention of colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma but with potential for increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease. FUNDING: Cancer Resesrch UK (C52724/A20138, C18281/A19169). UK Medical Research Council (MR/P014054/1). National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411). UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4). National Cancer Institute (R00 CA215360). National Institutes of Health (U01 CA164973, R01 CA60987, R01 CA72520, U01 CA74806, R01 CA55874, U01 CA164973 and U01 CA164973).

Linking Physical Activity to Breast Cancer Risk via Inflammation, Part 1: The Effect of Physical Activity on Inflammation.

The protective effect of physical activity on breast cancer incidence may partially be mediated by inflammation. Systematic searches of Medline, EMBASE, and SPORTDiscus were performed to identify intervention studies, Mendelian randomization studies, and prospective cohort studies that examined the effects of physical activity on circulating inflammatory biomarkers in adult women. Meta-analyses were performed to generate effect estimates. Risk of bias was assessed, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation system was used to determine the overall quality of the evidence. Thirty-five intervention studies and one observational study met the criteria for inclusion. Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCT) indicated that, compared with control groups, exercise interventions reduced levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) [standardized mean difference (SMD) = -0.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.62 to 0.08), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα, SMD = -0.63, 95% CI = -1.04 to -0.22), interleukin-6 (IL6, SMD = -0.55, 95% CI = -0.97 to -0.13) and leptin (SMD = -0.50, 95% CI = -1.10 to 0.09). Owing to heterogeneity in effect estimates and imprecision, evidence strength was graded as low (CRP, leptin) or moderate (TNFα and IL6). High-quality evidence indicated that exercise did not change adiponectin levels (SMD = 0.01, 95% CI = -0.14 to 0.17). These findings provide support for the biological plausibility of the first part of the physical activity-inflammation-breast cancer pathway.

Linking Physical Activity to Breast Cancer via Inflammation, Part 2: The Effect of Inflammation on Breast Cancer Risk.

This review synthesized and appraised the evidence for an effect of inflammation on breast cancer risk. Systematic searches identified prospective cohort and Mendelian randomization studies relevant to this review. Meta-analysis of 13 biomarkers of inflammation were conducted to appraise the evidence for an effect breast cancer risk; we examined the dose-response of these associations. Risk of bias was evaluated using the ROBINS-E tool and the quality of evidence was appraised with Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation. Thirty-four observational studies and three Mendelian randomization studies were included. Meta-analysis suggested that women with the highest levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) had a higher risk of developing breast cancer [risk ratio (RR) = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.26] compared with women with the lowest levels. Women with highest levels of adipokines, particularly adiponectin (RR = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.61-0.91) had a reduced breast cancer risk, although this finding was not supported by Mendelian randomization analysis. There was little evidence of an effect of cytokines, including TNFα and IL6, on breast cancer risk. The quality of evidence for each biomarker ranged from very low to moderate. Beyond CRP, the published data do not clearly support the role of inflammation in the development of breast cancer.

Brain expression quantitative trait locus and network analyses reveal downstream effects and putative drivers for brain-related diseases.

Identification of therapeutic targets from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) requires insights into downstream functional consequences. We harmonized 8,613 RNA-sequencing samples from 14 brain datasets to create the MetaBrain resource and performed cis- and trans-expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) meta-analyses in multiple brain region- and ancestry-specific datasets (n ≤ 2,759). Many of the 16,169 cortex cis-eQTLs were tissue-dependent when compared with blood cis-eQTLs. We inferred brain cell types for 3,549 cis-eQTLs by interaction analysis. We prioritized 186 cis-eQTLs for 31 brain-related traits using Mendelian randomization and co-localization including 40 cis-eQTLs with an inferred cell type, such as a neuron-specific cis-eQTL (CYP24A1) for multiple sclerosis. We further describe 737 trans-eQTLs for 526 unique variants and 108 unique genes. We used brain-specific gene-co-regulation networks to link GWAS loci and prioritize additional genes for five central nervous system diseases. This study represents a valuable resource for post-GWAS research on central nervous system diseases.

Biomedical consequences of elevated cholesterol-containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins on cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Higher concentrations of cholesterol-containing low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C) increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The association of LDL-C with non-CVD traits remains unclear, as are the possible independent contributions of other cholesterol-containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins. METHODS: Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy was used to measure the cholesterol content of high density (HDL-C), very low-density (VLDL-C), intermediate-density (IDL-C), as well as low-density lipoprotein fractions, the apolipoproteins Apo-A1 and Apo-B, as well as total triglycerides (TG), remnant-cholesterol (Rem-Chol) and total cholesterol (TC). The causal effects of these exposures were assessed against 33 outcomes using univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR). RESULTS: The majority of cholesterol containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins affect coronary heart disease (CHD), carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood pressure. Multivariable MR indicated that many of these effects act independently of HDL-C, LDL-C and TG, the most frequently measured lipid fractions. Higher concentrations of TG, VLDL-C, Rem-Chol and Apo-B increased heart failure (HF) risk; often independently of LDL-C, HDL-C or TG. Finally, a subset of these exposures associated with non-CVD traits such as Alzheimer's disease (AD: HDL-C, LDL-C, IDL-C, Apo-B), type 2 diabetes (T2DM: VLDL-C, IDL-C, LDL-C), and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD: LDL-C, IDL-C). CONCLUSIONS: The cholesterol content of a wide range of lipoprotein and apolipoproteins associate with measures of atherosclerosis, blood pressure, CRP, and CHD, with a subset affecting HF, T2DM, AD and IBD risk. Many of the observed effects appear to act independently of LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG, supporting the targeting of lipid fractions beyond LDL-C for disease prevention.

It is known that increases in the amount of certain fats and proteins in the blood can lead to heart attacks. These increases are also found in people with other diseases. Here, we looked at inherited differences in some fats and proteins in blood to explore whether these could be associated with various diseases. We found that some fats and proteins in blood were associated with heart disease (including heart failure), blood pressure, blockages in blood vessels, and to a lesser extent with diabetes, Alzheimer's disease, and inflammatory bowel disease. These findings suggest that changes to lipids and proteins in the blood might lead to various diseases, including some that are not normally associated with changes in the blood. Monitoring these changes could improve diagnosis and treatment of these diseases.

Association between genetically proxied PCSK9 inhibition and prostate cancer risk: A Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PrCa) is the second most prevalent malignancy in men worldwide. Observational studies have linked the use of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) lowering therapies with reduced risk of PrCa, which may potentially be attributable to confounding factors. In this study, we performed a drug target Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to evaluate the association of genetically proxied inhibition of LDL-c-lowering drug targets on risk of PrCa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with LDL-c (P < 5 × 10-8) from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium genome-wide association study (GWAS) (N = 1,320,016) and located in and around the HMGCR, NPC1L1, and PCSK9 genes were used to proxy the therapeutic inhibition of these targets. Summary-level data regarding the risk of total, advanced, and early-onset PrCa were obtained from the PRACTICAL consortium. Validation analyses were performed using genetic instruments from an LDL-c GWAS conducted on male UK Biobank participants of European ancestry (N = 201,678), as well as instruments selected based on liver-derived gene expression and circulation plasma levels of targets. We also investigated whether putative mediators may play a role in findings for traits previously implicated in PrCa risk (i.e., lipoprotein a (Lp(a)), body mass index (BMI), and testosterone). Applying two-sample MR using the inverse-variance weighted approach provided strong evidence supporting an effect of genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 (equivalent to a standard deviation (SD) reduction in LDL-c) on lower risk of total PrCa (odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.76 to 0.96, P = 9.15 × 10-3) and early-onset PrCa (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.52 to 0.95, P = 0.023). Genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition provided a similar central effect estimate on PrCa risk, although with a wider 95% CI (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.62 to 1.13, P = 0.244), whereas genetically proxied NPC1L1 inhibition had an effect on higher PrCa risk with a 95% CI that likewise included the null (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 0.87 to 2.04, P = 0.180). Analyses using male-stratified instruments provided consistent results. Secondary MR analyses supported a genetically proxied effect of liver-specific PCSK9 expression (OR = 0.90 per SD reduction in PCSK9 expression, 95% CI = 0.86 to 0.95, P = 5.50 × 10-5) and circulating plasma levels of PCSK9 (OR = 0.93 per SD reduction in PCSK9 protein levels, 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.997, P = 0.04) on PrCa risk. Colocalization analyses identified strong evidence (posterior probability (PPA) = 81.3%) of a shared genetic variant (rs553741) between liver-derived PCSK9 expression and PrCa risk, whereas weak evidence was found for HMGCR (PPA = 0.33%) and NPC1L1 expression (PPA = 0.38%). Moreover, genetically proxied PCSK9 inhibition was strongly associated with Lp(a) levels (Beta = -0.08, 95% CI = -0.12 to -0.05, P = 1.00 × 10-5), but not BMI or testosterone, indicating a possible role for Lp(a) in the biological mechanism underlying the association between PCSK9 and PrCa. Notably, we emphasise that our estimates are based on a lifelong exposure that makes direct comparisons with trial results challenging. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports a strong association between genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 and a lower risk of total and early-onset PrCa, potentially through an alternative mechanism other than the on-target effect on LDL-c. Further evidence from clinical studies is needed to confirm this finding as well as the putative mediatory role of Lp(a).

Causal effects of maternal circulating amino acids on offspring birthweight: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Amino acids are key to protein synthesis, energy metabolism, cell signaling and gene expression; however, the contribution of specific maternal amino acids to fetal growth is unclear. METHODS: We explored the effect of maternal circulating amino acids on fetal growth, proxied by birthweight, using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) and summary data from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of serum amino acids levels (sample 1, n = 86,507) and a maternal GWAS of offspring birthweight in UK Biobank and Early Growth Genetics Consortium, adjusting for fetal genotype effects (sample 2, n = 406,063 with maternal and/or fetal genotype effect estimates). A total of 106 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with 19 amino acids (p < 4.9 × 10-10) were used as genetic instrumental variables (IV). Wald ratio and inverse variance weighted methods were used in MR main analysis. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed to explore IV assumption violations. FINDINGS: Our results provide evidence that maternal circulating glutamine (59 g offspring birthweight increase per standard deviation increase in maternal amino acid level, 95% CI: 7, 110) and serine (27 g, 95% CI: 9, 46) raise, while leucine (-59 g, 95% CI: -106, -11) and phenylalanine (-25 g, 95% CI: -47, -4) lower offspring birthweight. These findings are supported by sensitivity analyses. INTERPRETATION: Our findings strengthen evidence for key roles of maternal circulating amino acids during pregnancy in healthy fetal growth. FUNDING: A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found under Acknowledgments.

Evaluating and implementing block jackknife resampling Mendelian randomization to mitigate bias induced by overlapping samples.

Participant overlap can induce overfitting bias into Mendelian randomization (MR) and polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Here, we evaluated a block jackknife resampling framework for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and PRS construction to mitigate overfitting bias in MR analyses and implemented this study design in a causal inference setting using data from the UK Biobank. We simulated PRS and MR under three scenarios: (1) using weighted SNP estimates from an external GWAS, (2) using weighted SNP estimates from an overlapping GWAS sample and (3) using a block jackknife resampling framework. Based on a P-value threshold to derive genetic instruments for MR studies (P < 5 × 10-8) and a 10% variance in the exposure explained by all SNPs, block-jackknifing PRS did not suffer from overfitting bias (mean R2 = 0.034) compared with the externally weighted PRS (mean R2 = 0.040). In contrast, genetic instruments derived from overlapping samples explained a higher variance (mean R2 = 0.048) compared with the externally derived score. Overfitting became considerably more severe when using a more liberal P-value threshold to construct PRS (e.g. P < 0.05, overlapping sample PRS mean R2 = 0.103, externally weighted PRS mean R2 = 0.086), whereas estimates using jackknife score remained robust to overfitting (mean R2 = 0.084). Using block jackknife resampling MR in an applied analysis, we examined the effects of body mass index on circulating biomarkers which provided comparable estimates to an externally weighted instrument, whereas the overfitted scores typically provided narrower confidence intervals. Furthermore, we extended this framework into sex-stratified, multivariate and bidirectional settings to investigate the effect of childhood body size on adult testosterone levels.

Linking Physical Activity to Breast Cancer Risk via the Insulin/Insulin-like Growth Factor Signaling System, Part 2: The Effect of Insulin/Insulin-like Growth Factor Signaling on Breast Cancer Risk.

Perturbation of the insulin/insulin-like growth factor (IGF) signaling system is often cited as a mechanism driving breast cancer risk. A systematic review identified prospective cohort studies and Mendelian randomization studies that examined the effects of insulin/IGF signaling (IGF, their binding proteins (IGFBP), and markers of insulin resistance] on breast cancer risk. Meta-analyses generated effect estimates; risk of bias was assessed and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system applied to evaluate the overall quality of the evidence. Four Mendelian randomization and 19 prospective cohort studies met our inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of cohort studies confirmed that higher IGF-1 increased risk of breast cancer; this finding was supported by the Mendelian randomization studies. IGFBP-3 did not affect breast cancer. Meta analyses for connecting-peptide and fasting insulin showed small risk increases, but confidence intervals were wide and crossed the null. The quality of evidence obtained ranged from 'very low' to 'moderate'. There were insufficient studies to examine other markers of insulin/IGF signaling. These findings do not strongly support the biological plausibility of the second part of the physical activity-insulin/IGF signaling system-breast cancer pathway. Robust conclusions cannot be drawn due to the dearth of high quality studies. See related article by Swain et al., p. 2106.