Childhood epilepsy with a small number of seizures may be left untreated: an international prospective study.

It is unknown whether treatment with antiepileptic drugs in children with epilepsy with a presumed good prognosis is always necessary. We aimed to study the course of newly diagnosed epilepsy in children with a presumed good prognosis who are managed without AED treatment. A total of 151 children (one month to 12 years of age) with two to five lifetime unprovoked seizures (excluding febrile convulsions), were followed for three years. Treatment was initially withheld. Children with symptomatic epilepsy, or absence or myoclonic epilepsy, were excluded. AED treatment was started after >10 lifetime seizures or an episode of status epilepticus during follow-up, or if the parents or treating physician deemed it otherwise necessary. During follow-up, 113 children continued to meet our criteria for refraining from treatment with antiepileptic drugs, yet 30 started treatment at the request of the parents. Thirty-eight children at some time met the criteria to start treatment, but the parents of 16 declined treatment. In all, 99 (66%) children maintained the no-treatment regime. Ninety-eight children (65% of 151) reached terminal remission for at least one year, including 83 who did not receive antiepileptic drug treatment (84% of the untreated 99). Mean terminal remission was significantly longer in the group with a total of <10 seizures compared to those with >10 seizures. Treatment did not increase the length of terminal remission. Adverse events, including traumatic injury, occurred equally in the treated and untreated children. Measures of quality of life suggested a better outcome in those without treatment. Children with newly diagnosed epilepsy with a presumed good prognosis may not need immediate AED treatment. Postponing treatment does not alter the chance of remission or the risk of accidents and adverse events and appears to be associated with a good quality of life.

Individualised prediction model of seizure recurrence and long-term outcomes after withdrawal of antiepileptic drugs in seizure-free patients: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: People with epilepsy who became seizure-free while taking antiepileptic drugs might consider discontinuing their medication, with the possibility of increased quality of life because of the elimination of adverse events. The risk with this action, however, is seizure recurrence. The objectives of our study were to identify predictors of seizure recurrence and long-term seizure outcomes and to produce nomograms for estimation of individualised outcomes. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis, and identified eligible articles and candidate predictors, using PubMed and Embase databases with a last update on Nov 6, 2014. Eligible articles had to report on cohorts of patients with epilepsy who were seizure-free and had started withdrawal of antiepileptic drugs; articles also had to contain information regarding seizure recurrences during and after withdrawal. We excluded surgical cohorts, reports with fewer than 30 patients, and reports on acute symptomatic seizures because these topics were beyond the scope of our objective. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies system. Data analysis was based on individual participant data. Survival curves and proportional hazards were computed. The strongest predictors were selected with backward selection. Models were converted to nomograms and a web-based tool to determine individual risks. FINDINGS: We identified 45 studies with 7082 patients; ten studies (22%) with 1769 patients (25%) were included in the meta-analysis. Median follow-up was 5·3 years (IQR 3·0-10·0, maximum 23 years). Prospective and retrospective studies and randomised controlled trials were included, covering non-selected and selected populations of both children and adults. Relapse occurred in 812 (46%) of 1769 patients; 136 (9%) of 1455 for whom data were available had seizures in their last year of follow-up, suggesting enduring seizure control was not regained by this timepoint. Independent predictors of seizure recurrence were epilepsy duration before remission, seizure-free interval before antiepileptic drug withdrawal, age at onset of epilepsy, history of febrile seizures, number of seizures before remission, absence of a self-limiting epilepsy syndrome, developmental delay, and epileptiform abnormality on electroencephalogram (EEG) before withdrawal. Independent predictors of seizures in the last year of follow-up were epilepsy duration before remission, seizure-free interval before antiepileptic drug withdrawal, number of antiepileptic drugs before withdrawal, female sex, family history of epilepsy, number of seizures before remission, focal seizures, and epileptiform abnormality on EEG before withdrawal. Adjusted concordance statistics were 0·65 (95% CI 0·65-0·66) for predicting seizure recurrence and 0·71 (0·70-0·71) for predicting long-term seizure freedom. Validation was stable across the individual study populations. INTERPRETATION: We present evidence-based nomograms with robust performance across populations of children and adults. The nomograms facilitate prediction of outcomes following drug withdrawal for the individual patient, including both the risk of relapse and the chance of long-term freedom from seizures. The main limitations were the absence of a control group continuing antiepileptic drug treatment and a consistent definition of long-term seizure freedom. FUNDING: Epilepsiefonds.

Neuronal antibodies in pediatric epilepsy: Clinical features and long-term outcomes of a historical cohort not treated with immunotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: In autoimmune encephalitis the etiologic role of neuronal cell-surface antibodies is clear; patients diagnosed and treated early have better outcomes. Neuronal antibodies have also been described in patients with pediatric epilepsy without encephalitis. The aim was to assess whether antibody presence had any effect on long-term outcomes in these patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 178) were recruited between 1988 and 1992 as part of the prospective Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood; none received immunotherapy. Healthy age-matched bone-marrow donors served as controls (n = 112). All sera were tested for serum N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR), alpha amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid receptor, leucine rich glioma inactivated 1, contactin associated protein like 2 (CASPR2), contactin-2, glutamic acid decarboxylase, and voltage gated potassium channel (VGKC)-complex antibodies by standard techniques. No cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples were available. Results were correlated with clinical data collected over 15 years. RESULTS: Seventeen patients (9.5%) were positive for VGKC complex (n = 3), NMDAR (n = 7), CASPR2 (n = 4), and contactin-2 (n = 3), compared to three (3/112; 2.6%) healthy controls (VGKC complex [n = 1], NMDAR [n = 2]; p = 0.03; Fisher's exact test). Titers were relatively low (≤1:100 for cell-surface antibodies), but 8 (47%) of the 17 positive samples bound to the surface of live hippocampal neurons consistent with a potential pathogenic antibody. Preexisting cognitive impairment was more frequent in antibody-positive patients (9/17 vs. 33/161; p = 0.01). Fourteen antibody-positive patients were treated with standard antiepileptic drugs (AEDs); three (17%) became intractable but this was not different from the 16 (10%) of 161 antibody-negative patients. In 96 patients with available follow-up samples at 6 and/or 12 months, 6 of 7 positive antibodies had disappeared and, conversely, antibodies had appeared for the first time in a further 7 patients. SIGNIFICANCE: Neuronal antibodies were found at low levels in 9.5% of patients with new-onset pediatric epilepsy but did not necessarily persist over time, and the development of antibodies de novo in later samples suggests they could be due to a secondary response to neuronal damage or inflammation. Moreover, as the response to standard AEDs and the long-term outcome did not differ from those of antibody-negative pediatric patients, these findings suggest that routine neuronal antibody testing is unlikely to be helpful in pediatric epilepsy. However, the higher incidence of preexisting cognitive problems in the antibody-positive group, the CASPR2 and contactin-2 antibodies in 7 of 17 patients, and the binding of 8 of 17 of serum samples to live hippocampal neurons suggest that neuronal antibodies, even if secondary, could contribute to the comorbidities of pediatric epilepsy.

Mortality risks in new-onset childhood epilepsy.

OBJECTIVES: Estimate the causes and risk of death, specifically seizure related, in children followed from onset of epilepsy and to contrast the risk of seizure-related death with other common causes of death in the population. METHODS: Mortality experiences from 4 pediatric cohorts of newly diagnosed patients were combined. Causes of death were classified as seizure related (including sudden unexpected death [SUDEP]), natural causes, nonnatural causes, and unknown. RESULTS: Of 2239 subjects followed up for >30 000 person-years, 79 died. Ten subjects with lethal neurometabolic conditions were ultimately excluded. The overall death rate (per 100 000 person-years) was 228; 743 in complicated epilepsy (with associated neurodisability or underlying brain condition) and 36 in uncomplicated epilepsy. Thirteen deaths were seizure-related (10 SUDEP, 3 other), accounting for 19% of all deaths. Seizure-related death rates were 43 overall, 122 for complicated epilepsy, and 14 for uncomplicated epilepsy. Death rates from other natural causes were 159, 561, and 9, respectively. Of 48 deaths from other natural causes, 37 were due to pneumonia or other respiratory complications. CONCLUSIONS: Most excess death in young people with epilepsy is not seizure-related. Mortality is significantly higher compared with the general population in children with complicated epilepsy but not uncomplicated epilepsy. The SUDEP rate was similar to or higher than sudden infant death syndrome rates. In uncomplicated epilepsy, sudden and seizure-related death rates were similar to or higher than rates for other common causes of death in young people (eg, accidents, suicides, homicides). Relating the risk of death in epilepsy to familiar risks may facilitate discussions of seizure-related mortality with patients and families.

Long term outcome of benign childhood epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes: Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood.

PURPOSE: To determine long-term outcome in a cohort of children with newly diagnosed benign childhood epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes (BECTS). METHODS: 29 children with BECTS were included in the Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood. Each child was followed for 5 years, and subsequently contacted 12-17 years after enrolment to complete a structured questionnaire. Twenty children had typical BECTS, nine had atypical BECTS (age at onset <4 years, developmental delay or learning difficulties at inclusion, other seizure types, atypical EEG abnormalities). RESULTS: Mean age at onset of epilepsy was 8.0 years with slight male preponderance. Most common seizure-types before enrolment were generalized tonic-clonic seizures (GTCS) and simple partial seizures; in 86% of the children seizures occurred during sleep. After 12-17 years, 96% had a terminal remission (TR(F)) of more than 5 years and 89% of more than 10 years. Mean duration of epilepsy was 2.7 years; mean age at reaching TR(F) was 10.6 years. Many children (63%) had experienced one or more (secondary) GTCS. Antiepileptic drugs were used by 79% of the children with a mean duration of 3.0 years. None of the children seemed to have developed learning problems or an arrest of cognitive development during follow-up. No significant differences were observed in patient characteristics or outcome between children with typical BECTS and children with atypical BECTS. CONCLUSIONS: All children in our cohort, both those with typical and atypical BECTS, had a very good prognosis with high remission rates after 12-17 years. None of the predictive factors for disease course and outcome observed in earlier studies (other seizure types, age at onset, multiple seizures at onset) were prognostic in our cohort.

Long-term outcome of childhood absence epilepsy: Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood.

SUMMARY: We determined long-term outcome and the predictive value of baseline and EEG characteristics on seizure activity evolution in 47 children with newly diagnosed childhood absence epilepsy (CAE) included in the Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood. All children were followed for 12-17 years. The children were subdivided in three groups for the analyses: those becoming seizure-free (I) within 1 month after enrolment; (II) 1-6 months after enrolment; and (III) more than 6 months after enrolment or having seizures continuing during follow-up. No significant differences were observed between groups in sex, age at onset, occurrence of febrile seizures, and positive first-degree family history for epilepsy. All groups had high remission rates after 12-17 years. Significantly more relapses occurred in group III than in group I. Total duration of epilepsy and mean age at final remission were 3.9 and 9.5 years, respectively, being significantly longer and higher in group III than in groups I and II. In all groups only a small number of children (total 13%) developed generalized tonic-clonic seizures. In conclusion, our children with CAE had an overall good prognosis with few children (7%) still having seizures after 12-17 years. Remission rate in children with CAE cannot be predicted on the basis of baseline and EEG characteristics. The early clinical course (i.e. the first 6 months) has some predictive value with respect to the total duration of absence epilepsy.

When to start drug treatment for childhood epilepsy: the clinical-epidemiological evidence.

INTRODUCTION: Many data on the course and prognosis after provoked and unprovoked single and multiple seizures in childhood have been collected in the past decennia by prospective, large-scale, long-term observational cohort studies. These data may serve to guide treatment decisions and help to design controlled trials investigating treatment strategies in childhood epilepsy. METHODS: The results of the Dutch study of epilepsy in childhood will be compared with those of other studies. We will also discuss the potential consequences of these results for the "why" and "when" of the decision to start treatment. RESULTS: Recurrence after a solitary unprovoked seizure in childhood is about 50%. Those with a recurrence have a similar outcome of their epilepsy compared to children presenting with multiple seizures, regardless whether they were treated after the first seizure or not. This argues in favour of postponing anti-epileptic drug (AED) treatment until at least a second seizure has occurred. After an unprovoked status epilepticus (SE), later outcome is not worse than after presentation with a short seizure. Therefore, long-term AED treatment after a single unprovoked SE may not be necessary either. The same holds true for children presenting with a short (less than one week) burst of unprovoked seizures. One quarter of them do not have recurrences and the final prognosis of children with recurrences does again not differ from the prognosis of the entire cohort. Findings in new-onset epilepsy further indicate that AED treatment can be safely omitted or at least postponed in about 15%, especially those with only a small number of seizures before presentation, those with benign partial epilepsy and those with sporadic generalised tonic-clonic seizures. On the reverse side, three considerations might lead to the decision to start early and aggressive treatment: the dangers of the seizures, the chance of intractability and the possibility of intellectual decline caused by recurrent seizures or epileptic activity. In idiopathic generalised absence epilepsy, the risks of accidents and learning problems indeed prompt early AED treatment. A self-propagating mechanism of seizures promoting the occurrence of more seizures, in the end causing intractable epilepsy (Gowers), occurs only rarely. Real intractability is seen in only 5-15% of the children with new-onset epilepsy. The chance of intractability is increased by variables like symptomatic aetiology, localisation-related epilepsy, and an early unfavourable course. Landau-Kleffner or continuous spikes and waves during sleep (CSWS) syndrome cause cognitive decline and syndromes like West, Lennox-Gastaut or Dravet's induce both psychomotor regression and intractability. In such cases, early aggressive treatment is indicated, including early consideration of the ketogenic diet, immunotherapy, vagus nerve stimulation and, if possible, referral for epilepsy surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Omitting or postponing treatment after a solitary seizure, an unprovoked SE, a single burst of seizures or multiple infrequent seizures usually does not worsen the prognosis. A poor prognosis and the consequent indication for early and aggressive treatment are dependent mainly upon the presence of variables like symptomatic aetiology, certain epilepsy types and syndromes, and the early evolution of the epilepsy in that particular child. Intellectual decline caused by seizures or epilepsy is rare and may be confined to certain specific and readily recognizable syndromes.

Add-on levetiracetam in children and adolescents with refractory epilepsy: results of an open-label multi-centre study.

PURPOSE: To study the efficacy and tolerability of add-on levetiracetam in children and adolescents with refractory epilepsy. METHODS: In this prospective multi-centre, open-label, add-on study, 33 children aged 4-16 years (median 8.5 years) with epilepsy refractory to at least two antiepileptic drugs were treated with levetiracetam in addition to their present treatment regimen with a follow-up of 26 weeks. The starting dose of 10 mg/kg/day was increased with 2-week steps of 10 mg/kg/day, if necessary, up to a maximum dose of 60 mg/kg/day. RESULTS: Retention rate was 69.7% after 26 weeks on a median levetiracetam dosage of 22 mg/kg/day. Four children dropped-out because levetiracetam was ineffective, four because seizure frequency increased and/or seizures became more severe, and two because they developed aggressive behaviour. Compared to their baseline seizure frequency, 13 children (39.4%) had a >50% seizure reduction 12 weeks after initiation of levetiracetam, and 17 children (51.5%) at 26 weeks. At 26 weeks, nine children (27.3%) had been seizure-free for at least the last 4 weeks, terminal remission ranged from 0 to 187 days (mean 46 days). Levetiracetam was effective in both partial and primary generalized seizures, but had most effect in partial seizures. Most reported side effects were hyperactivity (48.5%), somnolence (36.4%), irritability (33.3%) and aggressive behaviour (27.3%). Severity of most side effects was mild. Five children had a serious adverse event, which all concerned hospital admissions that were not related to levetiracetam use. CONCLUSION: Levetiracetam proved to be an effective and well-tolerated add-on treatment in this group of children with refractory epilepsy.

Status epilepticus in children with epilepsy: Dutch study of epilepsy in childhood.

PURPOSE: To study course and outcome of epilepsy in children having had a status epilepticus (SE) as the presenting sign or after the diagnosis. METHODS: A total of 494 children with newly diagnosed epilepsy, aged 1 month through 15 years, were followed prospectively for 5 years. RESULTS: A total of 47 Children had SE. Forty-one of them had SE when epilepsy was diagnosed. For 32 (78%), SE was the first seizure. SE recurred in 13 out of 41 (32%). Terminal remission at 5 years (TR5) was not significantly worse for these 41 children: 31.7% had a TR5 <1 year versus 21.2% of 447 children without SE. They were not more often intractable. Five out of six children with first SE after diagnosis had a TR5 <1 year. Mortality was not significantly increased for children with SE. Independent factors associated with SE at presentation were remote symptomatic and cryptogenic etiology, and a history of febrile convulsions. Children with first SE after inclusion more often had symptomatic etiology. CONCLUSIONS: Although we find a trend for shorter TR5 in children with SE at presentation, outcome and mortality are not significantly worse. Etiology is an important factor for prognosis. Children with SE during the course of their epilepsy have a worse prognosis and a high recurrence rate of SE. This outcome is not due to the SE itself, but related to the etiology and type of epilepsy. The occurrence of SE is just an indicator of the severity of the disease.

Validation of two prognostic models predicting outcome at two years after diagnosis in a new cohort of children with epilepsy: the Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood.

PURPOSE: To validate two prognostic models for childhood-onset epilepsy designed to predict a terminal remission of <6 months at 2 years after diagnosis in children referred to the hospital. METHODS: A hospital-based cohort of children with newly diagnosed epilepsy was recruited and followed up for 2 years to validate previously developed models. One model was based on variables collected at intake, and the other was based on intake variables plus variables collected during the first 6 months of follow-up. The accuracy of both models was estimated by measuring the area under the receiver-operant-characteristic curves (ROC area). RESULTS: The ROC area of the model developed with intake variables was 0.69 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64-0.74] for the original cohort and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.55-0.69) for the validation cohort. The best combination of sensitivity and specificity for the original cohort was 61.6% and 69.1%, whereas it was 60.0% and 61.4% for the validation cohort. For the model with intake and 6-month variables combined, the ROC area was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82) for the original cohort and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.64-0.78) for the validation cohort. The sensitivity and specificity were 72.6% and 73.1%, respectively, for the original cohort and 67.4% and 60.2%, respectively, for the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Although both models predict outcome better than chance, they are insufficiently accurate to be of practical value. Both models performed marginally less well with the validation cohort than with the original cohort, but in both instances, the model based on intake and 6-month variables was more accurate.

Interobserver reliability of visual interpretation of electroencephalograms in children with newly diagnosed seizures.

The reliability of visual interpretation of electroencephalograms (EEG) is of great importance in assessing the value of this diagnostic tool. We prospectively obtained 50 standard EEGs and 61 EEGs after partial sleep deprivation from 93 children (56 males, 37 females) with a mean age of 6 years 10 months (SE 5 mo; range 4 mo-15 y 7 mo) with one or more newly diagnosed, unprovoked seizures. Two clinical neurophysiologists independently classified the background pattern and the presence of epileptiform discharges or focal non-epileptiform abnormalities of each EEG. The agreement was substantial for the interpretation of the EEG as normal or abnormal (kappa 0.66), almost perfect for the presence of epileptiform discharges (kappa 0.83), substantial for the occurrence of an abnormal background pattern (kappa 0.73), and moderate for the presence of focal non-epileptiform discharges (kappa 0.54). In conclusion, the reliability of the visual interpretation of EEGs in children is almost perfect as regards the presence of epileptiform abnormalities, and moderate to substantial for the presence of other abnormalities.

The accuracy of outcome prediction models for childhood-onset epilepsy.

PURPOSE: Two large prospective cohort studies of childhood epilepsy (Nova Scotia and the Netherlands) each developed a statistical model to predict long-term outcome. We sought to evaluate the accuracy of a prognostic model based on the two studies combined. METHODS: Analyses with classification tree models and stepwise logistic regression produced predictive models for the combined dataset and the two separate cohorts. The resulting models were then externally validated on the opposite cohort. Remission was defined as no longer receiving daily medication for any length of time at the end of follow-up. RESULTS: The combined cohorts yielded 1,055 evaluable patients. At the end of follow-up (>or=5 years in >96%), 622 (59%) were in remission. By using the combined data, the classification tree model and the logistic regression model predicted the outcome correctly in approximately 70%. The classification tree model split the data on epilepsy type and age at first seizure. Predictors in the logistic regression model were: seizure number before treatment, age at first seizure, absence seizures, epilepsy types of symptomatic generalized and symptomatic partial, preexisting neurologic signs, intelligence, and the combination of febrile seizures and cryptogenic partial epilepsy. When the prediction models from each cohort were cross-validated on the opposite cohort, the outcome was predicted slightly less accurately than did the model from the combined data. CONCLUSIONS: Based on currently available clinical and EEG variables, predicting the outcome of childhood epilepsy may be difficult and appears to be incorrect in about one of every three patients.

Course and prognosis of childhood epilepsy: 5-year follow-up of the Dutch study of epilepsy in childhood.

Knowing the prognosis of epilepsy will undoubtedly influence the treatment strategy. This study aimed to define the prospects of newly diagnosed childhood epilepsy, assess the dynamics of its course, identify relevant variables and develop models to assess the individual prognosis. Four hundred and fifty-three children with newly diagnosed epilepsy were followed for 5 years. Terminal remission at 5 years (TR5) was compared with terminal remission at 2 years (TR2) and with the longest remission during follow-up. Variables defined at intake and at 6 months of follow-up were analysed for their prognostic relevance. In multivariate analyses, combinations of variables were tested to develop reliable models for the calculation of the individual prognosis. Data on treatment, course during follow-up and epilepsy syndromes were also studied. Three hundred and forty-five children (76%) had a TR5 >1 year, 290 (64%) >2 years and 65 (14%) had not had any seizure during the entire follow-up. Out of 108 children (24%) with TR5 <1 year, 27 were actually intractable at 5 years. Medication was started in 388 children (86%). In 227 of these (59%), anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) could be withdrawn. A TR5 >1 year was attained by 46% on one AED, on the second AED by 19%, and by 9% on all additional AED regimes. Almost 60% of the children treated with a second or additional AED regime had a TR5 >1 year. Variables predicting the outcome at intake were aetiology, history of febrile seizures and age. For intake and 6-month variables combined, sex, aetiology, postictal signs, history of febrile seizures and TR at 6 months were significant. The model derived from intake variables only predicted TR5 <1 year correctly in 36% and TR5 >1 year in 85% (sensitivity 0.65, specificity 0.64). The corresponding values for the model derived from intake and 6-month variables were 43 and 88% (sensitivity 0.69, specificity 0.71). The course of the epilepsy was constantly favourable in 51%, steadily poor in 17%, improving in 25% and deteriorating in 6%. Intractability was in part only a temporary phenomenon. The outcome at 5 years in this cohort of children with newly diagnosed epilepsy was favourable in 76%; 64% were off medication at that time. Almost a third of the children had a fluctuating course; improvement was clearly more common than deterioration. After failure of the first AED, treatment can still be successful. Models predicting the outcome have fewer misclassifications when predicting a long terminal remission than when predicting continuing seizures.