Climate genomics-Geoscientists, ecologists, and geneticists must reinforce their collaborations to confront climate change.

Geoscientists and ecologists alike must confront the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the services they provide. In the marine realm, major changes are projected in net primary and export production, with significant repercussions on food security, carbon storage, and climate system feedbacks. However, these projections do not include the potential for rapid linear evolution to facilitate adaptation to environmental change. Climate genomics confronts this challenge by assessing the vulnerability of ecosystem services to climate change. Because DNA is the primary biological repository of detectable environmentally selected mutations (showing evidence of change before impacts arise in morphological or metabolic patterns), genomics provides a window into selection in response to climate change, while also recording neutral processes deriving from stochastic mechanisms (Lowe et al., Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2017; 32:141-152). Due to the revolution afforded by sequencing technology developments, genomics can now meet ecologists and climate scientists in a cross-disciplinary space fertile for collaborations. Collaboration between geoscientists, ecologists, and geneticists must be reinforced in order to combine modeling and genomics approaches at every scale to improve our understanding and the management of ecosystems under climate change. To this end, we present advances in climate genomics from plankton to larger vertebrates, stressing the interactions between modeling and genomics, and identifying future work needed to develop and expand the field of climate genomics.

Ocean-wide comparisons of mesopelagic planktonic community structures.

For decades, marine plankton have been investigated for their capacity to modulate biogeochemical cycles and provide fishery resources. Between the sunlit (epipelagic) layer and the deep dark waters, lies a vast and heterogeneous part of the ocean: the mesopelagic zone. How plankton composition is shaped by environment has been well-explored in the epipelagic but much less in the mesopelagic ocean. Here, we conducted comparative analyses of trans-kingdom community assemblages thriving in the mesopelagic oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), mesopelagic oxic, and their epipelagic counterparts. We identified nine distinct types of intermediate water masses that correlate with variation in mesopelagic community composition. Furthermore, oxygen, NO3- and particle flux together appeared as the main drivers governing these communities. Novel taxonomic signatures emerged from OMZ while a global co-occurrence network analysis showed that about 70% of the abundance of mesopelagic plankton groups is organized into three community modules. One module gathers prokaryotes, pico-eukaryotes and Nucleo-Cytoplasmic Large DNA Viruses (NCLDV) from oxic regions, and the two other modules are enriched in OMZ prokaryotes and OMZ pico-eukaryotes, respectively. We hypothesize that OMZ conditions led to a diversification of ecological niches, and thus communities, due to selective pressure from limited resources. Our study further clarifies the interplay between environmental factors in the mesopelagic oxic and OMZ, and the compositional features of communities.

Plankton biogeography in the 21st century and impacts of climate change: advances through genomics.

This article summarizes recent advances in our knowledge of plankton biogeography obtained by genomic approaches and the impacts of global warming on it. Large-scale comparison of the genomic content of samples of different plankton size fractions revealed a partitioning of the oceans into genomic provinces and the impact of major oceanic currents on them. By defining ecological niches, these provinces are extrapolated to all oceans, with the exception of the Arctic Ocean. By the end of the 21st century, a major restructuring of these provinces is projected in response to a high emission greenhouse gas scenario over 50% of the surface of the studied oceans. Such a restructuring could lead to a decrease in export production by 4%. Finally, obtaining assembled sequences of a large number of plankton genomes defining this biogeography has allowed to better characterize the genomic content of the provinces and to identify the species structuring them. These genomes similarly enabled a better description of potential future changes of plankton communities under climate change.

Cet article résume des avancées récentes dans nos connaissances sur la biogéographie du plancton obtenues par des approches de génomiques ainsi que les impacts du réchauffement climatique sur celle-ci. La comparaison à large échelle du contenu génomique d'échantillons de différentes fractions de taille de plancton a révélé un partitionnement des océans en provinces génomiques ainsi que l'impact des principaux courants océaniques sur celles-ci. En définissant des niches écologiques, ces provinces sont extrapolées à l'ensemble des océans à l'exception de l'océan Arctique. D'ici la fin du XXI e siècle, une restructuration majeure de ces provinces est projetée en réponse à un scénario de fortes émissions de gaz à effet de serre sur 50 % de la surface des océans étudiés. Une telle restructuration pourrait engendrer une diminution de 4 % de la production exportée. L'obtention de séquences assemblées d'un grand nombre de génomes de plancton définissant cette biogéographie a permis de mieux caractériser le contenu génomique des provinces et d'identifier les espèces les structurant. Ces génomes ont aussi permis de mieux caractériser les futurs changements potentiels de communautés de plancton sous changement climatique.

The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points.

Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6.

Purpose of Review: The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings: The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary: Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

The impacts of ocean acidification on marine trace gases and the implications for atmospheric chemistry and climate.

Surface ocean biogeochemistry and photochemistry regulate ocean-atmosphere fluxes of trace gases critical for Earth's atmospheric chemistry and climate. The oceanic processes governing these fluxes are often sensitive to the changes in ocean pH (or pCO2) accompanying ocean acidification (OA), with potential for future climate feedbacks. Here, we review current understanding (from observational, experimental and model studies) on the impact of OA on marine sources of key climate-active trace gases, including dimethyl sulfide (DMS), nitrous oxide (N2O), ammonia and halocarbons. We focus on DMS, for which available information is considerably greater than for other trace gases. We highlight OA-sensitive regions such as polar oceans and upwelling systems, and discuss the combined effect of multiple climate stressors (ocean warming and deoxygenation) on trace gas fluxes. To unravel the biological mechanisms responsible for trace gas production, and to detect adaptation, we propose combining process rate measurements of trace gases with longer term experiments using both model organisms in the laboratory and natural planktonic communities in the field. Future ocean observations of trace gases should be routinely accompanied by measurements of two components of the carbonate system to improve our understanding of how in situ carbonate chemistry influences trace gas production. Together, this will lead to improvements in current process model capabilities and more reliable predictions of future global marine trace gas fluxes.

Experimental strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers of global ocean change-A review.

Marine life is controlled by multiple physical and chemical drivers and by diverse ecological processes. Many of these oceanic properties are being altered by climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. Hence, identifying the influences of multifaceted ocean change, from local to global scales, is a complex task. To guide policy-making and make projections of the future of the marine biosphere, it is essential to understand biological responses at physiological, evolutionary and ecological levels. Here, we contrast and compare different approaches to multiple driver experiments that aim to elucidate biological responses to a complex matrix of ocean global change. We present the benefits and the challenges of each approach with a focus on marine research, and guidelines to navigate through these different categories to help identify strategies that might best address research questions in fundamental physiology, experimental evolutionary biology and community ecology. Our review reveals that the field of multiple driver research is being pulled in complementary directions: the need for reductionist approaches to obtain process-oriented, mechanistic understanding and a requirement to quantify responses to projected future scenarios of ocean change. We conclude the review with recommendations on how best to align different experimental approaches to contribute fundamental information needed for science-based policy formulation.

Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models.

The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959-2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.

Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change.

Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de-oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~-3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~-8%) under the 'business as usual' climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We estimated the effects of these changes on biological communities using a coupled biogeochemical (PISCES)--ecosystems (APECOSM) model forced by the physical outputs of the last generation of the IPSL-CM Earth System Model. The APECOSM model is a size-structured bio-energetic model that simulates the 3D dynamical distributions of three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic, and migratory) under the effects of multiple environmental factors. The PISCES-APECOSM model ran from 1850 to 2100 under historical forcing followed by RCP8.5. Our RCP8.5 simulation highlights significant changes in the spatial distribution, biomass, and maximum body-size of the simulated pelagic communities. Biomass and maximum body-size increase at high latitude over the course of the century, reflecting the capacity of marine organisms to respond to new suitable environment. At low- and midlatitude, biomass and maximum body-size strongly decrease. In those regions, large organisms cannot maintain their high metabolic needs because of limited and declining food availability. This resource reduction enhances the competition and modifies the biomass distribution among and within the three communities: the proportion of small organisms increases in the three communities and the migrant community that initially comprised a higher proportion of small organisms is favored. The greater resilience of small body-size organisms resides in their capacity to fulfill their metabolic needs under reduced energy supply and is further favored by the release of predation pressure due to the decline of large organisms. These results suggest that small body-size organisms might be more resilient to climate change than large ones.

Influence of anthropogenic aerosol deposition on the relationship between oceanic productivity and warming.

Satellite data and models suggest that oceanic productivity is reduced in response to less nutrient supply under warming. In contrast, anthropogenic aerosols provide nutrients and exert a fertilizing effect, but its contribution to evolution of oceanic productivity is unknown. We simulate the response of oceanic biogeochemistry to anthropogenic aerosols deposition under varying climate from 1850 to 2010. We find a positive response of observed chlorophyll to deposition of anthropogenic aerosols. Our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols reduce the sensitivity of oceanic productivity to warming from -15.2 ± 1.8 to -13.3 ± 1.6 Pg C yr-1 °C-1 in global stratified oceans during 1948-2007. The reducing percentage over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Indian Oceans reaches 40, 24, and 25%, respectively. We hypothesize that inevitable reduction of aerosol emissions in response to higher air quality standards in the future might accelerate the decline of oceanic productivity per unit warming.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity.

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.

Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide.