Socioexposomics of COVID-19 across New Jersey: a comparison of geostatistical and machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in adverse COVID-19 health outcomes have been associated with multiple social and environmental stressors. However, research is needed to evaluate the consistency and efficiency of methods for studying these associations at local scales. OBJECTIVE: To assess socioexposomic associations with COVID-19 outcomes across New Jersey and evaluate consistency of findings from multiple modeling approaches. METHODS: We retrieved data for COVID-19 cases and deaths for the 565 municipalities of New Jersey up to the end of the first phase of the pandemic, and calculated mortality rates with and without long-term-care (LTC) facility deaths. We considered 84 spatially heterogeneous environmental, demographic and socioeconomic factors from publicly available databases, including air pollution, proximity to industrial sites/facilities, transportation-related noise, occupation and commuting, neighborhood and housing characteristics, age structure, racial/ethnic composition, poverty, etc. Six geostatistical models (Poisson/Negative-Binomial regression, Poison/Negative-Binomial mixed effect model, Poisson/Negative-Binomial Bersag-York-Mollie spatial model) and two Machine Learning (ML) methods (Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting) were implemented to assess association patterns. The Shapley effects plot was established for explainable ML and change of support validation was introduced to compare performances of different approaches. RESULTS: We found robust positive associations of COVID-19 mortality with historic exposures to NO2, population density, percentage of minority and below high school education, and other social and environmental factors. Exclusion of LTC deaths does not significantly affect correlations for most factors but findings can be substantially influenced by model structures and assumptions. The best performing geostatistical models involved flexible structures representing data variations. ML methods captured association patterns consistent with the best performing geostatistical models, and furthermore detected consistent nonlinear associations not captured by geostatistical models. SIGNIFICANCE: The findings of this work improve the understanding of how social and environmental disparities impacted COVID-19 outcomes across New Jersey.

Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States.

Exposures to airborne allergenic pollen have been increasing under the influence of changing climate. A modeling system incorporating pollen emissions and atmospheric transport and fate processes has been developed and applied to simulate spatiotemporal distributions of two major aeroallergens, oak and ragweed pollens, across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for both historical (year 2004) and future (year 2047) conditions. The transport and fate of pollen presented here is simulated using our adapted version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Model performance was evaluated using observed pollen counts at monitor stations across the CONUS for 2004. Our analysis shows that there is encouraging consistency between observed seasonal mean concentrations and corresponding simulated seasonal mean concentrations (oak: Pearson = 0.35, ragweed: Pearson = 0.40), and that the model was able to capture the statistical patterns of observed pollen concentration distributions in 2004 for most of the pollen monitoring stations. Simulation of pollen levels for a future year (2047) considered conditions corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. Modeling results show substantial regional variability both in the magnitude and directionality of changes in pollen metrics. Ragweed pollen season is estimated to start earlier and last longer for all nine climate regions of the CONUS, with increasing average pollen concentrations in most regions. The timing and magnitude of oak pollen season vary across the nine climate regions, with the largest increases in pollen concentrations expected in the Northeast region.

Flexible Bayesian Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Local Ozone Concentrations.

3D-grid-based chemical transport models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, have been widely used for predicting concentrations of ambient air pollutants. However, typical horizontal resolutions of nationwide CMAQ simulations (12 × 12 km2) cannot capture local-scale gradients for accurately assessing human exposures and environmental justice disparities. In this study, a Bayesian ensemble machine learning (BEML) framework, which integrates 13 learning algorithms, was developed for downscaling CMAQ estimates of ozone daily maximum 8 h averages to the census tract level, across the contiguous US, and was demonstrated for 2011. Three-stage hyperparameter tuning and targeted validations were designed to ensure the ensemble model's ability to interpolate, extrapolate, and capture concentration peaks. The Shapley value metric from coalitional game theory was applied to interpret the drivers of subgrid gradients. The flexibility (transferability) of the 2011-trained BEML model was further tested by evaluating its ability to estimate fine-scale concentrations for other years (2012-2017) without retraining. To demonstrate the feasibility of using the BEML approach to strictly "data-limited" situations, the model was applied to downscale CMAQ outputs for a future-year scenario-based simulation that considers effects of variations in meteorology associated with climate change.

Modeling Effects of Spatial Heterogeneities and Layered Exposure Interventions on the Spread of COVID-19 across New Jersey.

COVID-19 created an unprecedented global public health crisis during 2020-2021. The severity of the fast-spreading infection, combined with uncertainties regarding the physical and biological processes affecting transmission of SARS-CoV-2, posed enormous challenges to healthcare systems. Pandemic dynamics exhibited complex spatial heterogeneities across multiple scales, as local demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral and environmental factors were modulating population exposures and susceptibilities. Before effective pharmacological interventions became available, controlling exposures to SARS-CoV-2 was the only public health option for mitigating the disease; therefore, models quantifying the impacts of heterogeneities and alternative exposure interventions on COVID-19 outcomes became essential tools informing policy development. This study used a stochastic SEIR framework, modeling each of the 21 New Jersey counties, to capture important heterogeneities of COVID-19 outcomes across the State. The models were calibrated using confirmed daily deaths and SQMC optimization and subsequently applied in predictive and exploratory modes. The predictions achieved good agreement between modeled and reported death data; counterfactual analysis was performed to assess the effectiveness of layered interventions on reducing exposures to SARS-CoV-2 and thereby fatality of COVID-19. The modeling analysis of the reduction in exposures to SARS-CoV-2 achieved through concurrent social distancing and face-mask wearing estimated that 357 [IQR (290, 429)] deaths per 100,000 people were averted.

Biomonitoring: A tool to assess PFNA body burdens and evaluate the effectiveness of drinking water intervention for communities in New Jersey.

Elevated perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) levels, one of many manmade per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), were detected in public water systems/private wells in New Jersey communities. Interventions to end exposure through drinking water were carried out from 2014 to 2016. To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions, a community biomonitoring study was conducted for the communities between 2017 and 2020. A convenience sampling design was used with 120 participants in Year 1 between ages of 20-74 who consumed PFNA-contaminated water. Three blood samples, one year apart, were drawn from each participant and completed for 99 participants. Separated serum samples were measured for 12 PFAS including PFNA. Questionnaires were administered to collect information on demographics and potential sources. Drinking water and house dust collected at the first visit were analyzed for 14 PFAS including PFNA. The PFNA sera levels (Year 1) found 84 out of 120 (70%) participants were higher than the 95th percentile of a nationally representative sample of US adults (NHANES2015-16). Current drinking water and house dust were not significant contributing sources for the study participants. On average, PFNA sera levels were 12 ± 16% (Year 2) and 27 ± 16% (Year 3) lower than the level measured in Year 1 (p < 0.01). The PFNA half-life was estimated around 3.52 years, using a mixed model from 68 high-exposed participants (>95th percentile of NHANES2015-16) with controlling for physiological covariates. The decline in adult serum PFNA levels seen in the years following a community drinking water intervention suggests the intervention effectively reduced PFNA exposure via drinking water.

Comparison of Machine Learning and Land Use Regression for fine scale spatiotemporal estimation of ambient air pollution: Modeling ozone concentrations across the contiguous United States.

BACKGROUND: Spatial linear Land-Use Regression (LUR) is commonly used for long-term modeling of air pollution in support of exposure and epidemiological assessments. Machine Learning (ML) methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal modeling can provide more flexible exposure-relevant metrics and have been studied using different model structures. There is however a lack of comparisons of methods available within these two modeling frameworks, that can guide model/algorithm selection in air quality epidemiology. OBJECTIVE: The present study compares thirteen algorithms for spatial/spatiotemporal modeling applied for daily maxima of 8-hour running averages of ambient ozone concentrations at spatial resolutions corresponding to census tracts, to support estimation of annual ozone design values across the contiguous US. These algorithms were selected from nine representative categories and trained using predictors that included chemistry-transport model predictions, meteorological factors, land use and land cover, and stationary and mobile emissions. METHODS: To obtain the best predictive performance, model structures were optimized through a repeated coarse/fine grid search with expert knowledge. Six target-oriented validation strategies were used to prevent overfitting and avoid over-optimistic model evaluation results. In order to take full advantage of the power of different algorithms, we introduced tuning sample weights in spatiotemporal modeling to ensure predictive accuracy of peak concentrations, that is crucial for exposure assessments. In spatial modeling, four interpretation and visualization tools were introduced to explain predictions from different algorithms. RESULTS: Nonlinear ML methods achieved higher prediction accuracy than linear LUR, and the improvements were more significant for spatiotemporal modeling (nearly 10%-40% decrease of predicted RMSE). By tuning the sample weights, spatiotemporal models can predict concentrations used to calculate ozone design values that are comparable or even better than spatial models (nearly 30% decrease of cross-validated RMSE). We visualized the underlying nonlinear relationships, heterogeneous associations and complex interactions from the two best performing ML algorithms, i.e., Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting, and found that the complex patterns were relatively less significant with respect to model accuracy for spatial modeling. CONCLUSION: Machine Learning can provide estimates that are actually more interpretable and practical than linear regression to improve accuracy in modeling human exposures. A careful design of hyperparameter tuning and flexible data splitting and validations is crucial to obtain reliable and stable results. Desirable/successful nonlinear models are expected to capture similar nonlinear patterns and interactions using different ML algorithms.

Development of a semi-mechanistic allergenic pollen emission model.

Modeling pollen emission processes is crucial for studying the spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen. A semi-mechanistic emission model was developed based on mass balance of pollen grain fluxes in the surroundings of allergenic plants. The emission model considers direct emission and resuspension and accounts for influences of temperature, wind velocity, and relative humidity. Modules of this emission model have been developed and parameterized with multiple years of pollen count observations to provide pollen season onset and duration, hourly flowering likelihood, and vegetation coverage for oak and ragweed, as two examples. The simulated spatiotemporal pattern of pollen emissions generally follows the corresponding pattern of area coverage of allergenic plants and diurnal pattern of hourly flowering likelihood. It is found that oak pollen emissions start from the Southern part of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) in March and then shift gradually toward the Northern CONUS, with a maximum emission flux of 5.8 × 106 pollen/(m2 h). On the other hand, ragweed pollen emissions start from the Northern CONUS in August and then shift gradually toward the Southern CONUS. The mean ragweed emission flux during August to September can increase up to 2.4 × 106 pollen/(m2 h). This emission model is robust with respect to the input parameters for oak and ragweed. Qualitative evaluations of the model performance indicated that the simulated pollen emission is strongly correlated with the plant coverages and observed pollen counts. This model could also be applied to other pollen species given the relevant parameters.

Per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) blood levels after contamination of a community water supply and comparison with 2013-2014 NHANES.

INTRODUCTION: Per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), were detected in the community water supply of Paulsboro New Jersey in 2009. METHODS: A cross-sectional study enrolled 192 claimants from a class-action lawsuit, not affiliated with this study, who had been awarded a blood test for 13 PFAS. Study participants provided their blood test results and completed a survey about demographics; 105 participants also completed a health survey. Geometric means, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of exposure of PFNA blood serum concentrations were compared to that of the 2013-2014 NHANES, adjusted for reporting level. Associations between PFNA, PFOA, PFOS, and PFHxS and self-reported health outcomes were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: PFNA serum levels were 285% higher in Paulsboro compared with U.S. residents. PFNA serum levels were higher among older compared with younger, and male compared to female, Paulsboro residents. After adjustment for potential confounding, there was a significant association between increased serum PFNA levels and self-reported high cholesterol (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.29). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Further investigation into possible health effects of PFAS exposure in Paulsboro and other community settings is warranted. Since exposure has ceased, toxicokinetics of PFAS elimination should be explored.

Preparedness and response to chemical and biological threats: the role of exposure science.

There are multiple components to emergency preparedness and the response to chemical and biological threat agents. The 5Rs framework (rescue, reentry, recovery, restoration, and rehabitation) outlines opportunities to apply exposure science in emergency events. Exposure science provides guidance and refined tools for characterizing, assessing, and reducing risks from catastrophic events, such as the release of hazardous airborne chemicals or biological agents. Important challenges to be met include deployment of assets, including medications, before and after an emergency response situation. Assessment of past studies demonstrates the value of integrating exposure science methods into risk analysis and the management of catastrophic events.

Modulation of Human Macrophage Responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis by Silver Nanoparticles of Different Size and Surface Modification.

Exposure to silver nanoparticles (AgNP) used in consumer products carries potential health risks including increased susceptibility to infectious pathogens. Systematic assessments of antimicrobial macrophage immune responses in the context of AgNP exposure are important because uptake of AgNP by macrophages may lead to alterations of innate immune cell functions. In this study we examined the effects of exposure to AgNP with different particle sizes (20 and 110 nm diameters) and surface chemistry (citrate or polyvinlypyrrolidone capping) on cellular toxicity and innate immune responses against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) by human monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM). Exposures of MDM to AgNP significantly reduced cellular viability, increased IL8 and decreased IL10 mRNA expression. Exposure of M.tb-infected MDM to AgNP suppressed M.tb-induced expression of IL1B, IL10, and TNFA mRNA. Furthermore, M.tb-induced IL-1ß, a cytokine critical for host resistance to M.tb, was inhibited by AgNP but not by carbon black particles indicating that the observed immunosuppressive effects of AgNP are particle specific. Suppressive effects of AgNP on the M.tb-induced host immune responses were in part due to AgNP-mediated interferences with the TLR signaling pathways that culminate in the activation of the transcription factor NF-κB. AgNP exposure suppressed M.tb-induced expression of a subset of NF-κB mediated genes (CSF2, CSF3, IFNG, IL1A, IL1B, IL6, IL10, TNFA, NFKB1A). In addition, AgNP exposure increased the expression of HSPA1A mRNA and the corresponding stress-induced Hsp72 protein. Up-regulation of Hsp72 by AgNP can suppress M.tb-induced NF-κB activation and host immune responses. The observed ability of AgNP to modulate infectious pathogen-induced immune responses has important public health implications.

Manganese concentrations in soil and settled dust in an area with historic ferroalloy production.

Ferroalloy production can release a number of metals into the environment, of which manganese (Mn) is of major concern. Other elements include lead, iron, zinc, copper, chromium, and cadmium. Mn exposure derived from settled dust and suspended aerosols can cause a variety of adverse neurological effects to chronically exposed individuals. To better estimate the current levels of exposure, this study quantified the metal levels in dust collected inside homes (n=85), outside homes (n=81), in attics (n=6), and in surface soil (n=252) in an area with historic ferroalloy production. Metals contained in indoor and outdoor dust samples were quantified using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy, whereas attic and soil measurements were made with a X-ray fluorescence instrument. Mean Mn concentrations in soil (4600 µg/g) and indoor dust (870 µg/g) collected within 0.5 km of a plant exceeded levels previously found in suburban and urban areas, but did decrease outside 1.0 km to the upper end of background concentrations. Mn concentrations in attic dust were ~120 times larger than other indoor dust levels, consistent with historical emissions that yielded high airborne concentrations in the region. Considering the potential health effects that are associated with chronic Mn inhalation and ingestion exposure, remediation of soil near the plants and frequent, on-going hygiene indoors may decrease residential exposure and the likelihood of adverse health effects.

Modeling in vitro cellular responses to silver nanoparticles.

Engineered nanoparticles (NPs) have been widely demonstrated to induce toxic effects to various cell types. In vitro cell exposure systems have high potential for reliable, high throughput screening of nanoparticle toxicity, allowing focusing on particular pathways while excluding unwanted effects due to other cells or tissue dosimetry. The work presented here involves a detailed biologically based computational model of cellular interactions with NPs; it utilizes measurements performed in human cell culture systems in vitro, to develop a mechanistic mathematical model that can support analysis and prediction of in vivo effects of NPs. The model considers basic cellular mechanisms including proliferation, apoptosis, and production of cytokines in response to NPs. This new model is implemented for macrophages and parameterized using in vitro measurements of changes in cellular viability and mRNA levels of cytokines: TNF, IL-1b, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10. The model includes in vitro cellular dosimetry due to nanoparticle transport and transformation. Furthermore, the model developed here optimizes the essential cellular parameters based on in vitro measurements, and provides a "stepping stone" for the development of more advanced in vivo models that will incorporate additional cellular and NP interactions.

Physiologically-based toxicokinetic modeling of zearalenone and its metabolites: application to the Jersey girl study.

Zearalenone (ZEA), a fungal mycotoxin, and its metabolite zeranol (ZAL) are known estrogen agonists in mammals, and are found as contaminants in food. Zeranol, which is more potent than ZEA and comparable in potency to estradiol, is also added as a growth additive in beef in the US and Canada. This article presents the development and application of a Physiologically-Based Toxicokinetic (PBTK) model for ZEA and ZAL and their primary metabolites, zearalenol, zearalanone, and their conjugated glucuronides, for rats and for human subjects. The PBTK modeling study explicitly simulates critical metabolic pathways in the gastrointestinal and hepatic systems. Metabolic events such as dehydrogenation and glucuronidation of the chemicals, which have direct effects on the accumulation and elimination of the toxic compounds, have been quantified. The PBTK model considers urinary and fecal excretion and biliary recirculation and compares the predicted biomarkers of blood, urinary and fecal concentrations with published in vivo measurements in rats and human subjects. Additionally, the toxicokinetic model has been coupled with a novel probabilistic dietary exposure model and applied to the Jersey Girl Study (JGS), which involved measurement of mycoestrogens as urinary biomarkers, in a cohort of young girls in New Jersey, USA. A probabilistic exposure characterization for the study population has been conducted and the predicted urinary concentrations have been compared to measurements considering inter-individual physiological and dietary variability. The in vivo measurements from the JGS fall within the high and low predicted distributions of biomarker values corresponding to dietary exposure estimates calculated by the probabilistic modeling system. The work described here is the first of its kind to present a comprehensive framework developing estimates of potential exposures to mycotoxins and linking them with biologically relevant doses and biomarker measurements, including a systematic characterization of uncertainties in exposure and dose estimation for a vulnerable population.

A tiered framework for risk-relevant characterization and ranking of chemical exposures: applications to the National Children's Study (NCS).

A challenge for large-scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co-occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure-relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new "Tiered Exposure Ranking" (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk-relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both "discovery-driven" and "hypothesis-driven" analyses. "Tier 1" applications focus on "exposomic" pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk-relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, "tier 1" applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A "tier 2" application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk-relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.

Modeling Population Exposures to Silver Nanoparticles Present in Consumer Products.

Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (Geographic Information System) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human Life Stage Analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employs screening Microenvironmental Modeling and Intake Fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically-relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States.

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6%-248%. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.

Modeling physicochemical interactions affecting in vitro cellular dosimetry of engineered nanomaterials: application to nanosilver.

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) possess unique characteristics affecting their interactions in biological media and biological tissues. Systematic investigation of the effects of particle properties on biological toxicity requires a comprehensive modeling framework which can be used to predict ENM particokinetics in a variety of media. The Agglomeration-diffusion-sedimentation-reaction model (ADSRM) described here is stochastic, using a direct simulation Monte Carlo method to study the evolution of nanoparticles in biological media, as they interact with each other and with the media over time. Nanoparticle diffusion, gravitational settling, agglomeration, and dissolution are treated in a mechanistic manner with focus on silver ENMs (AgNPs). The ADSRM model utilizes particle properties such as size, density, zeta potential, and coating material, along with medium properties like density, viscosity, ionic strength, and pH, to model evolving patterns in a population of ENMs along with their interaction with associated ions and molecules. The model predictions for agglomeration and dissolution are compared with in vitro measurements for various types of ENMs, coating materials, and incubation media, and are found to be overall consistent with measurements. The model has been implemented for an in vitro case in cell culture systems to inform in vitro dosimetry for toxicology studies, and can be directly extended to other biological systems, including in vivo tissue subsystems by suitably modifying system geometry.

Computational multiscale toxicodynamic modeling of silver and carbon nanoparticle effects on mouse lung function.

A computational, multiscale toxicodynamic model has been developed to quantify and predict pulmonary effects due to uptake of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in mice. The model consists of a collection of coupled toxicodynamic modules, that were independently developed and tested using information obtained from the literature. The modules were developed to describe the dynamics of tissue with explicit focus on the cells and the surfactant chemicals that regulate the process of breathing, as well as the response of the pulmonary system to xenobiotics. Alveolar type I and type II cells, and alveolar macrophages were included in the model, along with surfactant phospholipids and surfactant proteins, to account for processes occurring at multiple biological scales, coupling cellular and surfactant dynamics affected by nanoparticle exposure, and linking the effects to tissue-level lung function changes. Nanoparticle properties such as size, surface chemistry, and zeta potential were explicitly considered in modeling the interactions of these particles with biological media. The model predictions were compared with in vivo lung function response measurements in mice and analysis of mice lung lavage fluid following exposures to silver and carbon nanoparticles. The predictions were found to follow the trends of observed changes in mouse surfactant composition over 7 days post dosing, and are in good agreement with the observed changes in mouse lung function over the same period of time.

Comparison of modeling approaches to prioritize chemicals based on estimates of exposure and exposure potential.

While only limited data are available to characterize the potential toxicity of over 8 million commercially available chemical substances, there is even less information available on the exposure and use-scenarios that are required to link potential toxicity to human and ecological health outcomes. Recent improvements and advances such as high throughput data gathering, high performance computational capabilities, and predictive chemical inherency methodology make this an opportune time to develop an exposure-based prioritization approach that can systematically utilize and link the asymmetrical bodies of knowledge for hazard and exposure. In response to the US EPA's need to develop novel approaches and tools for rapidly prioritizing chemicals, a "Challenge" was issued to several exposure model developers to aid the understanding of current systems in a broader sense and to assist the US EPA's effort to develop an approach comparable to other international efforts. A common set of chemicals were prioritized under each current approach. The results are presented herein along with a comparative analysis of the rankings of the chemicals based on metrics of exposure potential or actual exposure estimates. The analysis illustrates the similarities and differences across the domains of information incorporated in each modeling approach. The overall findings indicate a need to reconcile exposures from diffuse, indirect sources (far-field) with exposures from directly, applied chemicals in consumer products or resulting from the presence of a chemical in a microenvironment like a home or vehicle. Additionally, the exposure scenario, including the mode of entry into the environment (i.e. through air, water or sediment) appears to be an important determinant of the level of agreement between modeling approaches.