The probability that beneficial mutations are lost in populations with periodic bottlenecks.

Population bottlenecks affect the dynamics of evolution, increasing the probability that beneficial mutations will be lost. Recent protocols for the experimental study of evolution involve repeated bottlenecks-when fresh media are inoculated during serial transfer or when chemostat tubes are changed. Unlike population reductions caused by stochastic environmental factors, these bottlenecks occur at known, regular intervals and with a fixed dilution ratio. We derive the ultimate probability of extinction for a beneficial mutation in a periodically bottlenecked population, using both discrete and continuous approaches. We show that both approaches yield the same approximation for extinction probability. From this, we derive an approximate expression for an effective population size.

The evolution of mutation rates: separating causes from consequences.

Natural selection can adjust the rate of mutation in a population by acting on allelic variation affecting processes of DNA replication and repair. Because mutation is the ultimate source of the genetic variation required for adaptation, it can be appealing to suppose that the genomic mutation rate is adjusted to a level that best promotes adaptation. Most mutations with phenotypic effects are harmful, however, and thus there is relentless selection within populations for lower genomic mutation rates. Selection on beneficial mutations can counter this effect by favoring alleles that raise the mutation rate, but the effect of beneficial mutations on the genomic mutation rate is extremely sensitive to recombination and is unlikely to be important in sexual populations. In contrast, high genomic mutation rates can evolve in asexual populations under the influence of beneficial mutations, but this phenomenon is probably of limited adaptive significance and represents, at best, a temporary reprieve from the continual selection pressure to reduce mutation. The physiological cost of reducing mutation below the low level observed in most populations may be the most important factor in setting the genomic mutation rate in sexual and asexual systems, regardless of the benefits of mutation in producing new adaptive variation. Maintenance of mutation rates higher than the minimum set by this "cost of fidelity" is likely only under special circumstances.

Evidence of a role for the Q151L mutation and the viral background in development of multiple dideoxynucleoside-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1.

The majority of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected patients treated with zidovudine (AZT) plus zalcitabine (ddC) and didanosine (ddI) develop AZT resistance mediated by mutations such as T215Y and M41L. Only a small proportion of patients develop multiple dideoxynucleoside resistance (MDNR) mediated by the Q151M mutation. To gain insight into the factors responsible for the low frequency of selection of Q151M, we evaluated the replication capabilities of recombinant viruses carrying two possible intermediates (151L or 151K) of the Q151M mutation generated in different reverse transcriptase (RT) genetic backgrounds. The 151L and 151K mutations were introduced by site-directed mutagenesis in RTs from two patient-derived HIV-1 isolates that had either wild type (WT) Q or the Q151M (posttreatment isolate) mutation. For comparison, both mutations were also introduced in a laboratory-adapted HIV-1 strain (HIV-1(HXB2)). Analysis of replication capabilities showed that both 151L and 151K were lethal in RT genetic backgrounds of the WT isolate and in HIV-1(HXB2). In contrast, 151L but not 151K allowed virus replication in RT backgrounds of the posttreatment isolate. Three mutations (V35I, S68G, and I178M) were present in the RT background of the posttreatment isolate but not in the WT isolate. Introduction of S68G in the RT of both the WT isolate and HIV-1(HXB2) partially restored replication capacity of recombinants carrying the 151L mutation. The S68G mutation alone did not confer a significant replicative disadvantage in WT viruses. Like HIV-1(151M), HIV-1(151L) RT was found to have six- to eightfold resistance to AZT-triphosphate (TP), ddA-TP, and ddC-TP, indicating an MDNR phenotype. However, HIV-1(151L) was found to be less fit than HIV-1(151M), which may explain the preferential selection of HIV-1(151M) observed in vivo. The demonstrated ability of HIV-1(151L/68G) to replicate and the associated MDNR suggest that 151L is a potential intermediate of Q151M. The dependence of HIV-1(151L) on other mutations, such as S68G, for replication may explain the low frequency of the Q151M-mediated pathway of resistance.

Evolution of swine H3N2 influenza viruses in the United States.

During 1998, severe outbreaks of influenza were observed in four swine herds in the United States. This event was unique because the causative agents, H3N2 influenza viruses, are infrequently isolated from swine in North America. Two antigenically distinct reassortant viruses (H3N2) were isolated from infected animals: a double-reassortant virus containing genes similar to those of human and swine viruses, and a triple-reassortant virus containing genes similar to those of human, swine, and avian influenza viruses (N. N. Zhou, D. A. Senne, J. S. Landgraf, S. L. Swenson, G. Erickson, K. Rossow, L. Liu, K.-J. Yoon, S. Krauss, and R. G. Webster, J. Virol. 73:8851-8856, 1999). Because the U.S. pig population was essentially naive in regard to H3N2 viruses, it was important to determine the extent of viral spread. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays of 4, 382 serum samples from swine in 23 states indicated that 28.3% of these animals had been exposed to classical swine-like H1N1 viruses and 20.5% had been exposed to the triple-reassortant-like H3N2 viruses. The HI data suggested that viruses antigenically related to the double-reassortant H3N2 virus have not become widespread in the U.S. swine population. The seroreactivity levels in swine serum samples and the nucleotide sequences of six additional 1999 isolates, all of which were of the triple-reassortant genotype, suggested that H3N2 viruses containing avian PA and PB2 genes had spread throughout much of the country. These avian-like genes cluster with genes from North American avian viruses. The worldwide predominance of swine viruses containing an avian-like internal gene component suggests that these genes may confer a selective advantage in pigs. Analysis of the 1999 swine H3N2 isolates showed that the internal gene complex of the triple-reassortant viruses was associated with three recent phylogenetically distinct human-like hemagglutinin (HA) molecules. Acquisition of HA genes from the human virus reservoir will significantly affect the efficacy of the current swine H3N2 vaccines. This finding supports continued surveillance of U.S. swine populations for influenza virus activity.

Clonal interference and the evolution of RNA viruses.

In asexual populations, beneficial mutations that occur in different lineages compete with one another. This phenomenon, known as clonal interference, ensures that those beneficial mutations that do achieve fixation are of large effect. Clonal interference also increases the time between fixations, thereby slowing the adaptation of asexual populations. The effects of clonal interference were measured in the asexual RNA virus vesicular stomatitis virus; rates and average effects of beneficial mutations were quantified.

Diminishing returns from mutation supply rate in asexual populations.

Mutator genotypes with increased mutation rates may be especially important in microbial evolution if genetic adaptation is generally limited by the supply of mutations. In experimental populations of the bacterium Escherichia coli, the rate of evolutionary adaptation was proportional to the mutation supply rate only in particular circumstances of small or initially well-adapted populations. These experiments also demonstrate a "speed limit" on adaptive evolution in asexual populations, one that is independent of the mutation supply rate.

The fate of competing beneficial mutations in an asexual population.

In sexual populations, beneficial mutations that occur in different lineages may be recombined into a single lineage. In asexual populations, however, clones that carry such alternative beneficial mutations compete with one another and, thereby, interfere with the expected progression of a given mutation to fixation. From theoretical exploration of such 'clonal interference', we have derived (1) a fixation probability for beneficial mutations, (2) an expected substitution rate, (3) an expected coefficient of selection for realized substitutions, (4) an expected rate of fitness increase, (5) the probability that a beneficial mutation transiently achieves polymorphic frequency (> or = 1%), and (6) the probability that a beneficial mutation transiently achieves majority status. Based on (2) and (3), we were able to estimate the beneficial mutation rate and the distribution of mutational effects from changes in mean fitness in an evolving E. coli population.

Evolution of competitive fitness in experimental populations of E. coli: what makes one genotype a better competitor than another?

An important problem in microbial ecology is to identify those phenotypic attributes that are responsible for competitive fitness in a particular environment. Thousands of papers have been published on the physiology, biochemistry, and molecular genetics of Escherichia coli and other bacterial models. Nonetheless, little is known about what makes one genotype a better competitor than another even in such well studied systems. Here, we review experiments to identify the phenotypic bases of improved competitive fitness in twelve E. coli populations that evolved for thousands of generations in a defined environment, in which glucose was the limiting substrate. After 10,000 generations, the average fitness of the derived genotypes had increased by approximately 50% relative to the ancestor, based on competition experiments using marked strains in the same environment. The growth kinetics of the ancestral and derived genotypes showed that the latter have a shorter lag phase upon transfer into fresh medium and a higher maximum growth rate. Competition experiments were also performed in environments where other substrates were substituted for glucose. The derived genotypes are generally more fit in competition for those substrates that use the same mechanism of transport as glucose, which suggests that enhanced transport was an important target of natural selection in the evolutionary environment. All of the derived genotypes produce much larger cells than does the ancestor, even when both types are forced to grow at the same rate. Some but not all, of the derived genotypes also have greatly elevated mutation rates. Efforts are now underway to identify the genetic changes that underlie those phenotypic changes, especially substrate specificity and elevated mutation rate for which there are good candidate loci. Identification and subsequent manipulation of these genes may provide new insights into the reproducibility of adaptive evolution, the importance of co-adapted gene complexes, and the extent to which distinct phenotypes (e.g., substrate specificity and cell size) are affected by the same mutations.

Evolution of high mutation rates in experimental populations of E. coli.

Most mutations are likely to be deleterious, and so the spontaneous mutation rate is generally held at a very low value. Nonetheless, evolutionary theory predicts that high mutation rates can evolve under certain circumstances. Empirical observations have previously been limited to short-term studies of the fates of mutator strains deliberately introduced into laboratory populations of Escherichia coli, and to the effects of intense selective events on mutator frequencies in E. coli. Here we report the rise of spontaneously originated mutators in populations of E. coli undergoing long-term adaptation to a new environment. Our results corroborate computer simulations of mutator evolution in adapting clonal populations, and may help to explain observations that associate high mutation rates with emerging pathogens and with certain cancers.