A distributional regression approach to modeling the impact of structural and intermediary social determinants on communities burdened by tuberculosis in Eastern Amazonia - Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease that is influenced by social determinants of health. However, the specific structural and intermediary determinants of TB in Eastern Amazonia remain unclear. Despite being rich in natural resources, the region faces significant challenges related to poverty, inequality, and neglected diseases. The objective of this study was to use mathematical modeling to evaluate the influence of structural and intermediary determinants of health on TB in Eastern Amazonia, Brazil. METHODS: This cross-sectional included all TB cases diagnosed and registered in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) from 2001 to 2017. Data on social determinants were collected at the census tract level. The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework was employed to identify the effect of social determinants on communities with a high TB prevalence. The Double Poisson distribution (DPO) was chosen, and inclusion of quadratic effects was tested. RESULTS: A total of 1730 individuals were diagnosed with TB and reported in SINAN during the analyzed period. The majority were female (59.3%), aged 31 to 59 years (47.6%), identified as blacks (67.9%), and had incomplete elementary education (46.6%). The prevalence of alcoholism was 8.6% and mental illness was 0.7%. GAMLSS analyses demonstrated that the risk of community incidence of TB is associated with the proportion of the population lacking basic sanitation, as well as with the age groups of 16-31 years and > 61 years. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the strategic utility of GAMLSS in identifying high-risk areas for TB. Models should encompass a broader range of social determinants to inform policies aimed at reducing inequality and achieving the goals of the End TB strategy.

Acquired and Transmitted Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis among the Incarcerated Population and Its Determinants in the State of Paraná-Brazil.

(1) Background: Tuberculosis remains a public health problem in the world. The study analyzed the factors associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis in the prison population of the state of Paraná. (2) Methods: Ecological study of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases registered in the Paraná Information System, Brazil (2008 to 2018). We performed descriptive statistics of quantitative parameters calculated with absolute frequencies. Additionally, we used binary regression logistics, where the odds ratio with its respective confidence interval was calculated. (3) Results: Of the 653 cases registered as cases of tuberculosis in the incarcerated population, 98 were drug-resistant tuberculosis. We observed that educational level of up to 8 to 11 years of schooling, negative bacterial culture (test outcome) and no tobacco use were factors associated with the non-development of drug-resistant tuberculosis, while clinically confirmed pulmonary TB and positive sputum smear microscopy in the fourth month of follow-up showed an association for the development of drug resistance. (4) Conclusions: The study showed that clinically confirmed pulmonary TB and a positive sputum smear microscopy in the fourth month of follow-up were associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Trend and Spatial Distribution of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Liberty-Deprived Populations in the State of Paraná, Brazil.

(1) Background: Tuberculosis remains a public health problem in the world. This study evaluated the temporal trends, distribution, and spatial associations of drug-resistant tuberculosis in liberty-deprived populations in the state of Paraná, Brazil. (2) Methods: An ecological study was developed using all cases of drug-resistant tuberculosis in penal establishments reported by the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2008 and 2018. For the time trend, the Prais-Winsten method was used. To verify the spatial association, the Getis-Ord Gi* technique was used. (3) Results: During the study period, 653 cases of tuberculosis were reported in the studied population, of which 98 (15%) were drug-resistant. Prais-Winsten autoregression identified an increasing trend, with APC = 15.08% (95% CI: 0.02-0.09) from 2008 to 2018; when analyzed from 2012 to 2018, the trend increased even more, with APC = 23.31% (95% CI: 0.01-0.16). Hotspots were also noted in the north, east, and west macro-regions of the state. (4) Conclusions: The presence of drug-resistant tuberculosis, as well as an increasing trend of these cases, was evidenced in all regions of the state among liberty-deprived populations,. The spatial analysis revealed priority areas for drug-resistant tuberculosis in penal establishments.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (-0.27% per month, 95%CI -0.13 to -0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (-9.21% per month, CI95% -1.37 to -16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

Impact of the GeneXpert® MTB/RIF rapid molecular test on tuberculosis detection: temporal trends and vulnerable territories.

OBJECTIVE: to assess the impact of the GeneXpert® MTB/RIF rapid molecular test on tuberculosis detection, to analyze the temporal trend of the event and to identify vulnerable territories in a Brazilian municipality. METHOD: an ecological study carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil, a municipality considered a priority in tuberculosis control due to the high number of cases. To classify the temporal trend, the Prais-Winsten method and the Interrupted Time Series were used to identify changes in the disease incidence. Kernel intensity analysis was applied to identify vulnerable areas. RESULTS: the temporal trend of tuberculosis decreased by 18.1%/year and by 6.9%/year for children under 15 years old. The North District decreased by 6.67%/year and the East District increased by 17.5%/year in the incidence of tuberculosis. Resistant tuberculosis, after the implementation of the Rapid Molecular Test, increased by 0.6% per year. The South and West Districts showed a higher density of cases, with a range from 45 to 79 tuberculosis cases per square kilometer (km2). CONCLUSION: although resistant tuberculosis is not a problem in the scenario, the study showed an increase in its incidence, which puts it on alert. The use of spatial analysis enabled the identification of priority areas, putting them in evidence for health surveillance actions.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá / Tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose e sua distribuição espacial em Macapá-AP

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

RESUMO OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência temporal da incidência da tuberculose após a implementação do teste rápido molecular, identificar se a tuberculose apresenta variação sazonal e classificar o território de acordo com a densidade de casos e as áreas de risco em Macapá-AP. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico composto por casos de tuberculose registrados no SINAN entre 2001 e 2017. Foi utilizado o teste Prais-Winsten para classificar a tendência temporal da incidência e a Série Temporal Interrompida para identificar mudanças na tendência temporal antes e depois da implementação do teste rápido molecular, além de verificar a sazonalidade no município. Utilizou-se o estimador de Kernel para classificar a densidade de casos e estatística de varredura para identificar áreas de risco da tuberculose. RESULTADOS: Foram identificados 1730 casos, observando-se que a tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose foi decrescente (-0,27% por mês, IC95% −0,13 a −0,41). Não houve mudança de nível na série temporal após a implantação do teste molecular GeneXpert® MTB/RIF, porém, o período pós teste foi classificado como crescente em termos da incidência (+2,09% por mês, IC95% 0,92 a 3,27). Quanto à variação sazonal, apresentou crescimento (+13,7%/mês, IC95% 4,71 a 23,87) nos meses de dezembro a junho, referente ao período de chuvas - chamado inverno amazônico - e decréscimo (-9,21% por mês, IC95% −1,37 a −16,63) nos demais períodos. Por meio de Kernel, foram classificadas áreas com alta densidade de casos nos distritos Central e Norte e, com a estatística de varredura, foram identificados três aglomerados de proteção, AE1 (RR = 0,07), AE2 (RR = 0,23) e AE3 (RR = 0,36), e um aglomerado de alto risco, AE4 (RR = 1,47). CONCLUSÃO: A tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose se revelou decrescente na série temporal, todavia, um crescimento na detecção foi observado após introdução do TRM-TB, e ainda se evidenciou que há comportamento sazonal da tuberculose. A distribuição dos casos foi heterogênea, com tendência de concentração em territórios vulneráveis e de risco, evidenciando um padrão de desigualdade da doença no território.