External Validation of Surrogate Indices of Fatty Liver in the General Population: the Bagnacavallo Study.

We externally validated the fatty liver index (FLI), the lipid accumulation product (LAP), the hepatic steatosis index (HSI), and the Zhejiang University index (ZJU) for the diagnosis of fatty liver (FL) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the general population. The validation was performed on 2159 citizens of the town of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Italy). Calibration was evaluated by calculating the calibration slope and intercept and by inspecting calibration plots; discrimination was evaluated using the c-statistic. The average calibration slope was 1 and the average intercept was 0 for all combinations of outcomes and indices. For the diagnosis of FL, the c-statistic was 0.85 for FLI, 0.83 for ZJU, 0.82 for HSI, and 0.80 for LAP; for the diagnosis of NAFLD, the c-statistic was 0.77 for FLI, 0.76 for ZJU, 0.75 for HSI, and 0.74 for LAP. All indices were strongly correlated with each other. In conclusion, FLI, LAP, HSI, and ZJU perform similarly well to diagnose FL and NAFLD in the Bagnacavallo population, even if FLI has a small advantage as discrimination is concerned.

Is there an association between commonly employed biomarkers of liver fibrosis and liver stiffness in the general population?

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Surrogate biomarkers of liver fibrosis developed in tertiary care are increasingly used in general populations. We evaluated the association between liver stiffness (LS) and five continuous (AST/ALT, APRI, Forns Index, FIB-4, GGT) and two discrete biomarkers (BARD, BAAT) in a general population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 636 (29%) of the 2159 citizens of the Bagnacavallo Study had LS measured by transient elastography. Using linear regression with univariate multiple imputation, we evaluated the association of LS with the above biomarkers in the total sample of 2159 citizens. RESULTS: The mean change of LS between the 5th and 95th internal percentile of any continuous biomarker was ≤1kPa. The mean change of LS between scores 0 and 3 of BARD and scores 0 and ≥3 of BAAT was >1kPa but of doubtful clinical relevance. CONCLUSION: We found a modest association between LS and seven biomarkers of liver fibrosis in a general population.

Could Inflammatory Indices and Metabolic Syndrome Predict the Risk of Cancer Development? Analysis from the Bagnacavallo Population Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the robust data available on inflammatory indices (neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII)) and clinical outcome in oncological patients, their utility as a predictor of cancer incidence in the general population has not been reported in literature. METHODS: The Bagnacavallo study was performed between October 2005 and March 2009. All citizens of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy) aged 30-60 years as of January 2005 were eligible and were invited by written letter to participate to the study. All participants underwent a detailed clinical history and physical examination following the model of the Dionysos Study. All blood values included in the analysis were obtained the day of physical examination. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the population-based Romagna Cancer Registry, which operates according to standard methods. The aim of this analysis was to examine the association between metabolic syndrome and baseline SII, NLR, and PLR levels, and the diagnosis of an invasive cancer in the Bagnacavallo study cohort. RESULTS: At univariate analysis, metabolic syndrome was not associated with an increase of cancer incidence (HR 1.30; p = 0.155). High glucose (HR 1.49; p = 0.0.16), NLR HR 1.54, p = 0.002), PLR (HR 1.58, p = 0.001), and SII (HR 1.47, p = 0.006) were associated with an increase of cancer incidence. After adjusting for clinical covariates (smoking, physical activity, education, age, and gender) SII, PLR, and NLR remained independent prognostic factors for the prediction of cancer incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory indices are promising, easy to perform, and inexpensive tools for identifying patients with higher risk of cancer in cancer-free population.

Prevalence of and risk factors for fatty liver in the general population of Northern Italy: the Bagnacavallo Study.

BACKGROUND: The estimation of the burden of disease attributable to fatty liver requires studies performed in the general population. METHODS: The Bagnacavallo Study was performed between October 2005 and March 2009. All the citizens of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Italy) aged 30 to 60 years as of January 2005 were eligible. Altered liver enzymes were defined as alanine transaminase > 40 U/l and/or aspartate transaminase > 37 U/l. RESULTS: Four thousand and thirty-three (58%) out of 6920 eligible citizens agreed to participate and 3933 (98%) had complete data. 393 (10%) of the latter had altered liver enzymes and 3540 had not. After exclusion of subjects with HBV or HCV infection, liver ultrasonography was available for 93% of subjects with altered liber enzymes and 52% of those with normal liver enzymes. The prevalence of fatty liver, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcoholic fatty liver disease (AFLD) was 0.74 (95%CI 0.70 to 0.79) vs. 0.35 (0.33 to 0.37), 0.46 (0.41 to 0.51) vs. 0.22 (0.21 to 0.24) and 0.28 (0.24 to 0.33) vs. 0.13 (0.11 to 0.14) in citizens with than in those without altered liver enzymes. Ethanol intake was not associated and all the components of the metabolic syndrome (MS) were associated with fatty liver. All potential risk factors were associated with a lower odds of normal liver vs. NAFLD while they were unable to discriminate AFLD from NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: Fatty liver as a whole was highly prevalent in Bagnacavallo in 2005/9 and was more common among citizens with altered liver enzymes.

Transient elastography in healthy subjects and factors influencing liver stiffness in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An Italian community-based population study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have been performed to explore parameters that influence liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography in general population. AIM: To explore factors influencing LSM in healthy and in subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: LSM was performed in a well-characterized cohort of subjects aged between 30 and 63 years. After exclusion of any causes of liver disease, the healthy cohort was defined and was compared with participants with NAFLD. The 95th percentile value of LSM in healthy was used as a cutoff suggesting relevant fibrosis. RESULTS: Among 780 subjects evaluated, 331 were defined as healthy. The median value was 4.4kPa (3.7-5.2) and the 95th percentile was 6.8kPa. LSM was not influenced by gender, age, anthropometrics and biochemical parameters. Only insulin resistance was independently associated with increasing of LSM. In the cohort of 157 subjects with NAFLD, LSM was higher than in healthy (5.6±1.9 vs 4.6±1.3kPa; p<0.001). On multivariate analysis, the degree of steatosis was independently associated with increasing of LSM in NAFLD cohort (ß=0.271; 95% CI=0.026-0.095; p<0.001). Participants with diabetes and/or severe steatosis had the highest probabilities of relevant fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: LSM varies between 3.7 and 5.2kPa in healthy Caucasians and is influenced only by insulin resistance. In NAFLD, severe steatosis and diabetes are factors influencing LSM.