Disease outbreak response: why epidemiology plays a central role.

The need to control transboundary animal disease outbreaks is widely recognised, as is the need for evidence-based decisions regarding which control measures to implement. Key data and information are required to inform this evidence base. To ensure effective communication of the evidence, a rapid process of collation, interpretation and translation is required. This paper describes how epidemiology can provide the framework through which relevant specialists can be engaged to this end, and highlights the central role of epidemiologists, with their unique combination of skills, in this process. It provides an example of an evidence team led by epidemiologists, namely the United Kingdom National Emergency Epidemiology Group, which was established to address this need. It then goes on to consider the different strands of epidemiology, the need for a wide multidisciplinary approach, and the importance of training and preparedness activities to facilitate rapid response.

La nécessité de contrôler les foyers de maladies animales transfrontalières est largement reconnue, tout comme celle de fonder la prise de décisions sur des données probantes pour la mise en oeuvre des mesures de contrôle. Afin de documenter cette base d'éléments probants, il est nécessaire d'obtenir un certain nombre de données et d'informations clés. Un processus rapide de collecte, d'interprétation et de traduction des données doit être mis en place afin de communiquer ces éléments probants de manière efficace. Les auteurs décrivent le cadre que l'épidémiologie peut apporter aux chercheurs pour s'engager sur cette voie ; ils soulignent le rôle central des épidémiologistes dans ce processus, grâce au faisceau unique de compétences dont ils disposent. Ils donnent l'exemple d'une équipe animée par des épidémiologistes travaillant sur les données probantes qui a été mise en place spécifiquement pour répondre à ce besoin : le Groupe national d'épidémiologie d'urgence du Royaume-Uni (National Emergency Epidemiology Group). Les auteurs concluent en menant une réflexion sur les différentes branches de l'épidémiologie, le besoin d'une approche pluridisciplinaire large et l'importance des activités de formation et de préparation pour une réponse rapide.

Hay coincidencia general en que hoy resulta imperativo combatir los brotes transfronterizos de enfermedades animales, al igual que es necesario contar con un sólido fundamento de datos factuales para tomar decisiones sobre las medidas de lucha que conviene implantar. Para generar esta base empírica hay que disponer de un conjunto esencial de datos e información y para comunicarla eficazmente se requiere un rápido proceso de recogida, interpretación y traducción. Los autores explican cómo puede la epidemiología constituir el marco de referencia desde el que trabajen para tal fin los distintos especialistas y destacan la función central que cumplen en este proceso los epidemiólogos, gracias a la singular combinación de competencias que presentan. A modo de ejemplo, describen un equipo dedicado al estudio de datos factuales que fue establecido, bajo la dirección de epidemiólogos, justamente para responder a esta necesidad: el Grupo nacional de respuesta epidemiológica a situaciones de emergencia del Reino Unido (National Emergency Epidemiology Group). Por último, tras detenerse en las distintas vertientes de la epidemiología, inciden en la necesidad de abordar la cuestión desde un planteamiento ampliamente pluridisciplinar y en la importancia que revisten las actividades de formación y preparación para facilitar una respuesta rápida.

Identification, assessment and management of new and re-emerging animal-related risks: UK perspective.

Veterinary surveillance programmes aim to reduce the burden to the public, livestock and wider society posed by animal-related 'risks' (referred to as 'threats' later in the paper in line with a definition used by the European Food Safety Authority) including the reemergence of diseases believed absent or eradicated. To achieve this, it is important to have a systematic approach to identifying and dealing with such threats rapidly and effectively. This paper describes the transparent, systematic and auditable process used for identifying, assessing, escalating and prioritising new and re-emerging animal-related threats in the UK. This has been achieved through the establishment of a Veterinary Risk Group in late 2009.

Bovine TB infection status in cattle in Great Britain in 2015.

This report, provided by the APHA, presents the key descriptive epidemiological parameters of bovine TB in cattle in Great Britain from January 1 to December 31, 2015, providing summary information on the epidemic, including key statistics and epidemiological parameters as presented in the annual surveillance report for Great Britain, with supporting detail from specific reports for England and Wales. It updates the previous annual summaries for 2012 to 2014, also published in Veterinary Record.

D2R2: an evidence-based decision support tool to aid prioritisation of animal health issues for government funding.

An evidence-based decision support tool, 'D2R2', has been developed by Defra. It contains a wide range of standardised information about exotic and endemic diseases held in 'disease profiles'. Each profile includes 40 criteria used for scoring, enabling D2R2 to provide relative priority rankings for every disease profiled. D2R2 also provides a range of reports for each disease and the functionality to explore the impact of changes in any criterion or weighting on a disease's ranking. These outputs aid the prioritisation and management of animal diseases by government. D2R2 was developed with wide stakeholder engagement and its design was guided by clear specifications. It uses the weighted scores of a limited number of criteria to generate impact and risk scores for each disease, and relies on evidence drawn from published material wherever possible and maintained up to date. It allows efficient use of expertise, as maintained disease profiles reduce the need for on call, reactive, expert input for policy development and enables rapid simultaneous access to the same information by multiple parties, for example during exotic disease outbreaks. The experience in developing D2R2 has been shared internationally to assist others with their development of disease prioritisation and categorisation systems.

Proposed terms and concepts for describing and evaluating animal-health surveillance systems.

The information provided by animal-health surveillance helps to reduce the impact of animal diseases. The widespread movement of animals and their products around the world results in an increasing risk that disease will spread. There is, therefore, a need for exchange between countries of comparable information about disease incidence; the exchange must be based on a common understanding of surveillance approaches and how surveillance systems are designed and implemented. Establishing agreed-upon definitions of surveillance terms would be a first step in achieving this standardisation, and will enhance transparency and confidence. To this end, a workshop was held with the aim of agreeing upon key terms and concepts for animal-health surveillance. In this paper, we describe the methods used at the workshop and summarise the discussions. A complete list of all the proposed definitions including lists of characteristics that can be used to describe surveillance activities and attributes for evaluation of surveillance is available in the workshop report (available at http://www.defra.gov.uk/ahvla-en/disease-control/surveillance/icahs-workshop/). Some important issues were highlighted during these discussions; of particular note was the importance of economic efficiency as an evaluation attribute. Some remaining inconsistencies in the proposed use of terms are highlighted (including the definition of 'risk-based surveillance' and the use of the term 'event-based surveillance').

Risk factors for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease during an outbreak in southern England in 2007.

During an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in southern England in 2007, a case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for infection and to investigate the relative impact of risk factors on transmission between the infected farms. Seven of the eight case farms in the outbreak and 22 control farms participated. Data were collected via questionnaires and subjected to comparative statistical analysis. Case farms were further classified as primary or secondary according to the likely source of infection during the study. On primary case farms, it was plausible that infection had been introduced directly from the original source. On secondary case farms, FMD infection was more likely to have originated from another infected premises. Calving occurred more frequently on case farms than on control farms during the risk period, and the two primary case farms had a larger proportion of youngstock than the other farms. Secondary case farms (n=5) had a higher composite environmental risk score and a lower biosecurity score than control farms.

Assessment of farm-level biosecurity measures after an outbreak of avian influenza in the United Kingdom.

During Avian Influenza outbreaks in England, the 'AI Order' states that a poultry keeper may be required to keep domestic birds separate from wild birds. This study aimed to assess a) how effectively this was done and b) the negative impact this had for bird owners and animal welfare during the November 2007 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Suffolk, UK. A voluntary questionnaire was posted to holdings (n=296) that were within 10 km of an infected premises; these holdings were required to separate domestic and wild birds where possible. Holdings were identified during outbreak investigations conducted by the authorities. Holdings of all sizes were included. A sample of holdings received a follow-up visit or telephone call to validate the questionnaire (n=29). From the 38% of eligible holdings that responded, 13% (95% CI 7-22%) left their birds outdoors throughout the outbreak. If game birds were excluded, 9% (CI 4-17%) of holdings did not house their birds. Major cost and welfare problems were rare; however, there were exceptions. Enforced housing was often relaxed before a minor welfare problem deteriorated. Contact between wild and domestic birds was greatly reduced during the outbreak, resulting in a reduced probability of HPAI transmission via wild birds for most, but not all, holdings.

Use of laboratory data to reduce the time taken to detect new diseases: VIDA to FarmFile.

The analysis of laboratory data can provide information about the health of livestock populations; in Great Britain the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) system has provided such data since 1975. However VIDA covers only known diagnoses, with limited epidemiological characterisation. The unexpected outbreak of bse showed that it was necessary to improve surveillance to detect new diseases, and a necessary update of the VIDA database for the millennium date change provided the opportunity. The information required to enhance the value of laboratory data was identified, a new form and database, 'FarmFile', were designed to record it, and they began to be used in 1999. The detection of new diseases depends on making comparisons with the expected or 'usual' levels of unexplained disease. The data are analysed quarterly to assess any changes in the levels of unexplained disease in different species, categorised in terms of clinical sign or body system, by comparison with previous years. No new diseases have been detected either through FarmFile or more traditional means since the new analyses started in earnest in 2004, but they have indicated that an unexplained event was not a new disease of concern, and developments continue to improve the system's sensitivity and specificity.

UK surveillance: provision of quality assured information from combined datasets.

Surveillance information is most useful when provided within a risk framework, which is achieved by presenting results against an appropriate denominator. Often the datasets are captured separately and for different purposes, and will have inherent errors and biases that can be further confounded by the act of merging. The United Kingdom Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks (RADAR) system contains data from several sources and provides both data extracts for research purposes and reports for wider stakeholders. Considerable efforts are made to optimise the data in RADAR during the Extraction, Transformation and Loading (ETL) process. Despite efforts to ensure data quality, the final dataset inevitably contains some data errors and biases, most of which cannot be rectified during subsequent analysis. So, in order for users to establish the 'fitness for purpose' of data merged from more than one data source, Quality Statements are produced as defined within the overarching surveillance Quality Framework. These documents detail identified data errors and biases following ETL and report construction as well as relevant aspects of the datasets from which the data originated. This paper illustrates these issues using RADAR datasets, and describes how they can be minimised.

Progress with enhancing veterinary surveillance in the United Kingdom.

The UK has experienced various animal health events that have had national impact in recent years. In response, a ;Veterinary Surveillance Strategy' (VSS) was published in 2003, with the objective of enhancing and coordinating national veterinary surveillance practice in a way that would enable important animal health events to be detected and assessed more rapidly and reliably. The VSS adopts an integrated UK-wide approach, which includes widespread engagement with interested parties both within government and beyond. It proposes enhancing surveillance through improved collaboration; transparent and defensible prioritisation of government resources to surveillance; deriving better value from existing resources, and assuring quality of the surveillance reports and source data. This article describes progress with implementing the VSS, in particular the methodology for developing a functional network and creating an effective, quality-assured, information management system, RADAR.

National survey for Salmonella in pigs, cattle and sheep at slaughter in Great Britain (1999-2000).

AIMS: The objective of these surveys was to estimate the prevalence of faecal carriage of Salmonella in healthy pigs, cattle and sheep at slaughter, and of pig carcase contamination with Salmonella. These data can be used as a baseline against which future change in Salmonella prevalence in these species at slaughter can be monitored. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this first randomized National Survey for faecal carriage of Salmonella in slaughter pigs, cattle and sheep in Great Britain, 2509 pigs, 891 cattle and 973 sheep were sampled in 34 pig abattoirs and 117 red meat abattoirs in England, Scotland and Wales. Carriage of Salmonella in 25 g caecal contents was identified in 578 (23.0% pigs) but in only 134 (5.3%) of carcase swabs. The predominant Salmonella serovars found in both types of sample were S. Typhimurium (11.1% caeca, 2.1% carcases) and S. Derby (6.3% caeca, 1.6% carcases). The main definitive phage types (DT) of S. Typhimurium found were DT104 (21.9% of caecal S. Typhimurium isolates), DT193 (18.7%), untypable strains (17.6%), DT208 (13.3%) and U302 (13.3%). Three isolates of S. Enteritidis (PTs 13A and 4) and one enrofloxacin-resistant S. Choleraesuis were also isolated. A positive 'meat-juice ELISA' was obtained from 15.2% of pigs at 40% optical density (O.D.) cut-off level and 35.7% at 10% cut-off. There was poor correlation between positive ELISA results or carcase contamination and the caecal carriage of Salmonella. The ratio of carcase contamination to caecal carriage rates was highest in abattoirs from the midland region of England and in smaller abattoirs. In cattle and sheep 1 g samples of rectal faeces were tested. Two isolates (i.e. 0.2%) were recovered from cattle, one each of S. Typhimurium, DT193 and DT12. One sheep sample (0.1%) contained a Salmonella, S. Typhimurium DT41. In a small subsidiary validation exercise using 25 g of rectal faeces from 174 cattle samples, three (1.7%) isolates of Salmonella (S. Typhimurium DT104, S. Agama, S. Derby) were found. CONCLUSIONS: The carriage rate of Salmonella in prime slaughter cattle and sheep in Great Britain was very low compared with pigs. This suggests that future control measures should be focused on reduction of Salmonella infection on pig farms and minimizing contamination of carcases at slaughter. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This work has set baseline figures for Salmonella carriage in these species slaughtered for human consumption in Great Britain. These figures were collected in a representative way, which enables them to be used for monitoring trends and setting control targets.

Temporal and geographical distribution of cases of foot-and-mouth disease during the early weeks of the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain.

Estimates of the likely dates of infection of the early cases of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic indicate that at least 57 premises in 16 counties in Great Britain were infected before the first case was disclosed. Nationwide animal movement controls were imposed within three days of the first case being confirmed on February 20, when FMD was only known to be in two counties, and these controls limited its geographical spread. After the first few cases were confirmed, new cases were rapidly discovered, and the epidemic curve for the daily number of confirmed cases peaked five weeks later, 11 days later than the peak of the curve based on the estimated dates of infection. In the peak week, both curves showed an average daily number of 43 new cases. The estimated dates of infection are believed to be relatively unbiased for the early cases, for which they were derived from a known contact with infection. However, for the later cases they were estimated mainly from the age of the clinical signs of the disease, and were biased by species and other factors, a bias which would probably have made the estimated dates later than was in fact the case.

Faecal carriage of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and sheep at slaughter in Great Britain.

A 12-month abattoir survey was conducted between January 1999 and January 2000, to determine the prevalence of faecal carriage of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) in cattle and sheep slaughtered for human consumption in Great Britain. Samples of rectum containing faeces were collected from 3939 cattle and 4171 sheep at 118 abattoirs, in numbers proportional to the throughput of the premises. The annual prevalence of faecal carriage of VTEC O157 was 4.7 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 4.1 to 5.4) for cattle and 1.7 per cent (1.3 to 2.1) for sheep, values which were statistically significantly different from each other (P < 0.001). The organisms were recovered from both cattle and sheep slaughtered throughout the year and at abattoirs in all regions of the country, but the highest prevalence was in the summer. The most frequency recovered VTEC O157 isolates were phage types 2, 8 and 21/28 in cattle and 4 and 32 in sheep, the five most frequently isolated phage types associated with illness in people in Great Britain during the same period.

A trial of biosecurity as a means to control Campylobacter infection of broiler chickens.

We ran a controlled intervention trial to assess whether the risk of a broiler flock becoming infected with Campylobacter could be reduced by biosecurity measures. These were a standard method of cleansing and disinfecting the poultry house prior to stocking, and a standard hygiene protocol followed by all personnel who entered the study house during the flock's life. Thirty-nine flocks were allocated to intervention or control groups in a ratio of 1:2. Intervention flocks were asked to follow the specified biosecurity measures; all flocks were monitored weekly for Campylobacter infection. Analysis of infection at 42 days of age and over the life of the flock showed that the risk of thermophilic Campylobacter infection of broilers was reduced by over 50% in intervention flocks. Parts of the intervention identified as significant in the univariable analysis included twice weekly replenishment of boot dip disinfectant; potential independent risk factors identified included the location of ventilation fans and daily sanitisation of the water supply. The non-random allocation of 10 flocks to the control group may have introduced some study bias (the effect of which is discussed in the paper).

Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months.

In February 2001, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed in Great Britain. A major epidemic developed, which peaked around 50 cases a day in late March, declining to under 10 a day by May. By mid-July, 1849 cases had been detected. The main control measures employed were livestock movement restrictions and the rapid slaughter of infected and exposed livestock. The first detected case was in south-east England; infection was traced to a farm in north-east England to which all other cases were linked. The epidemic was large as a result of a combination of events, including a delay in the diagnosis of the index case, the movement of infected sheep to market before FMD was first diagnosed, and the time of year. Virus was introduced at a time when there were many sheep movements around the country and weather conditions supported survival of the virus. The consequence was multiple, effectively primary, introductions of FMD virus into major sheep-keeping areas. Subsequent local spread from these introductions accounted for the majority of cases. The largest local epidemics were in areas with dense sheep populations and livestock dealers who were active during the key period. Most affected farms kept both sheep and cattle. At the time of writing the epidemic was still ongoing; however, this paper provides a basis for scientific discussion of the first five months.