Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 77
Filtrar
1.
Ecology ; : e4305, 2024 Apr 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38679955

RESUMO

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

2.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(24): 6867-6887, 2023 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37839801

RESUMO

With environmental change, understanding how species recover from overharvesting and maintain viable populations is central to ecosystem restoration. Here, we reconstruct 90 years of recovery trajectory of the Antarctic fur seal at South Georgia (S.W. Atlantic), a key indicator species in the krill-based food webs of the Southern Ocean. After being harvested to commercial extinction by 1907, this population rebounded and now constitutes the most abundant otariid in the World. However, its status remains uncertain due to insufficient and conflicting data, and anthropogenic pressures affecting Antarctic krill, an essential staple for millions of fur seals and other predators. Using integrated population models, we estimated simultaneously the long-term abundance for Bird Island, northwest South Georgia, epicentre of recovery of the species after sealing, and population adjustments for survey counts with spatiotemporal applicability. Applied to the latest comprehensive survey data, we estimated the population at South Georgia in 2007-2009 as 3,510,283 fur seals [95% CI: 3,140,548-3,919,604] (ca. 98% of global population), after 40 years of maximum growth and range expansion owing to an abundant krill supply. At Bird Island, after 50 years of exponential growth followed by 25 years of slow stable growth, the population collapsed in 2009 and has thereafter declined by -7.2% [-5.2, -9.1] per annum, to levels of the 1970s. For the instrumental record, this trajectory correlates with a time-varying relationship between coupled climate and sea surface temperature cycles associated with low regional krill availability, although the effects of increasing krill extraction by commercial fishing and natural competitors remain uncertain. Since 2015, fur seal longevity and recruitment have dropped, sexual maturation has retarded, and population growth is expected to remain mostly negative and highly variable. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of a key Southern Ocean predator over a century of profound environmental and ecosystem change.


Assuntos
Euphausiacea , Otárias , Animais , Ecossistema , Cadeia Alimentar , Clima , Temperatura , Regiões Antárticas
3.
Ecol Evol ; 13(5): e9871, 2023 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37200911

RESUMO

Social networks are tied to population dynamics; interactions are driven by population density and demographic structure, while social relationships can be key determinants of survival and reproductive success. However, difficulties integrating models used in demography and network analysis have limited research at this interface. We introduce the R package genNetDem for simulating integrated network-demographic datasets. It can be used to create longitudinal social network and/or capture-recapture datasets with known properties. It incorporates the ability to generate populations and their social networks, generate grouping events using these networks, simulate social network effects on individual survival, and flexibly sample these longitudinal datasets of social associations. By generating co-capture data with known statistical relationships, it provides functionality for methodological research. We demonstrate its use with case studies testing how imputation and sampling design influence the success of adding network traits to conventional Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models. We show that incorporating social network effects into CJS models generates qualitatively accurate results, but with downward-biased parameter estimates when network position influences survival. Biases are greater when fewer interactions are sampled or fewer individuals observed in each interaction. While our results indicate the potential of incorporating social effects within demographic models, they show that imputing missing network measures alone is insufficient to accurately estimate social effects on survival, pointing to the importance of incorporating network imputation approaches. genNetDem provides a flexible tool to aid these methodological advancements and help researchers testing other sampling considerations in social network studies.

4.
Ecol Evol ; 11(19): 13166-13174, 2021 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34646460

RESUMO

Optimizing the effect of management practices on weed population dynamics is challenging due to the difficulties in inferring demographic parameters in seed banks and their response to disturbance. Here, we used a long-term plant survey between 2006 and 2012 in 46 French vineyards and quantified the effects of management practices (tillage, mowing, and herbicide) on colonization, germination, and seed survival of 30 weed species in relation to their seed mass. To do so, we used a recent statistical approach to reliably estimate demographic parameters for plant populations with a seed bank using time series of presence-absence data, which we extended to account for interspecies variation in the effects of management practices on demographic parameters. Our main finding was that when the level of disturbance increased (i.e., in plots with a higher number of herbicides, tillage, or mowing treatments), colonization success and survival in large-seeded species increased faster than in small-seeded species. High disturbance through tillage increased survival in the seed bank of species with high seed mass. The application of herbicides increased germination, survival, and colonization probabilities of species with high seed mass. Mowing, representing habitats more competitive for light, increased the survival of species with high seed mass. Overall, the strong relationships between the effects of management practices and seed mass provide an indicator for predicting the dynamics of weed communities under disturbance.

5.
Ecology ; 102(12): e03535, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34514594

RESUMO

A major challenge in statistical ecology consists of integrating knowledge from different data sets to produce robust ecological indicators. To estimate species distribution, occupancy models are a flexible framework that can accommodate several data sets obtained from different sampling methods. However, repeating visits at sampling sites is a prerequisite for using standard occupancy models. Occupancy models were recently developed to analyze detection/non-detection data collected during a single visit. To date, single-visit occupancy models have never been used to integrate several different data sets. Here, we showcase an approach that combines two data sets into an integrated single-visit occupancy model. As a case study, we estimated the distribution of common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) over the northwestern Mediterranean Sea by combining 24,624 km of aerial surveys and 21,464 km of at-sea monitoring. We compared the outputs of single- vs. repeated-visit occupancy models into integrated occupancy models. Integrated models allowed a better sampling coverage of the targeted population, which provided a better precision for occupancy estimates than occupancy models using data sets in isolation. Overall, single- and repeated-visit integrated occupancy models produced similar inference about the distribution of bottlenose dolphins. We suggest that single-visit occupancy models open promising perspectives for the use of existing ecological data sets.


Assuntos
Golfinho Nariz-de-Garrafa , Animais , Mar Mediterrâneo
6.
J Exp Zool A Ecol Integr Physiol ; 335(6): 552-563, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34038036

RESUMO

Stimulating the regulation of pests by their natural enemies is a way to improve the sustainability of agriculture and respect for the environment. However, the presence of natural enemies does not guarantee the existence of a pest control service. To what extent are predatory mites commonly found in henhouses actually able to regulate a major egg industry pest mite, Dermanyssus gallinae? To answer this question, we have experimentally recreated portions of a poultry house ecosystem allowing the development of the pest over several generations in the presence of a chick and detritivorous mites (Astigmata) that are ubiquitous and abundant in layer farms. In these conditions, we compared the growth of D. gallinae populations in the presence and absence of native predatory arthropods. No effect of native predators on the growth of the D. gallinae population could be detected despite high initial predator-to-prey ratios and satisfactory growth of predator populations. Prey switching to the alternative prey Astigmata likely dilutes the effect of predation on the target prey. Further exploration is needed to see whether action could be taken to enhance the effect of top-down regulation.


Assuntos
Artrópodes/fisiologia , Galinhas/parasitologia , Infestações por Ácaros/veterinária , Controle Biológico de Vetores/métodos , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/parasitologia , Comportamento Predatório/fisiologia , Animais , Infestações por Ácaros/terapia , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/terapia
7.
Ecol Evol ; 11(7): 3380-3392, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33841791

RESUMO

In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories.We designed a capture-recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple-year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade-offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent's survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long-term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus).Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability.Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple-year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long-living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction.

8.
Theor Popul Biol ; 138: 1-27, 2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33515551

RESUMO

Most mechanistic predator-prey modelling has involved either parameterization from process rate data or inverse modelling. Here, we take a median road: we aim at identifying the potential benefits of combining datasets, when both population growth and predation processes are viewed as stochastic. We fit a discrete-time, stochastic predator-prey model of the Leslie type to simulated time series of densities and kill rate data. Our model has both environmental stochasticity in the growth rates and interaction stochasticity, i.e., a stochastic functional response. We examine what the kill rate data brings to the quality of the estimates, and whether estimation is possible (for various time series lengths) solely with time series of population counts or biomass data. Both Bayesian and frequentist estimation are performed, providing multiple ways to check model identifiability. The Fisher Information Matrix suggests that models with and without kill rate data are all identifiable, although correlations remain between parameters that belong to the same functional form. However, our results show that if the attractor is a fixed point in the absence of stochasticity, identifying parameters in practice requires kill rate data as a complement to the time series of population densities, due to the relatively flat likelihood. Only noisy limit cycle attractors can be identified directly from population count data (as in inverse modelling), although even in this case, adding kill rate data - including in small amounts - can make the estimates much more precise. Overall, we show that under process stochasticity in interaction rates, interaction data might be essential to obtain identifiable dynamical models for multiple species. These results may extend to other biotic interactions than predation, for which similar models combining interaction rates and population counts could be developed.


Assuntos
Crescimento Demográfico , Comportamento Predatório , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Biomassa , Cadeia Alimentar , Modelos Biológicos , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional
9.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(48): 30531-30538, 2020 12 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33199605

RESUMO

The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world's largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes.


Assuntos
Genética Populacional , Dinâmica Populacional , Comportamento Predatório , Algoritmos , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Geografia , Modelos Teóricos , Análise Espacial
10.
Ecol Lett ; 23(12): 1878-1903, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33073921

RESUMO

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field studies, ecological state dynamics operating at any level of this hierarchy can often be unobservable or 'hidden'. Ecologists must therefore often contend with incomplete or indirect observations that are somehow related to these underlying processes. By formally disentangling state and observation processes based on simple yet powerful mathematical properties that can be used to describe many ecological phenomena, hidden Markov models (HMMs) can facilitate inferences about complex system state dynamics that might otherwise be intractable. However, HMMs have only recently begun to gain traction within the broader ecological community. We provide a gentle introduction to HMMs, establish some common terminology, review the immense scope of HMMs for applied ecological research and provide a tutorial on implementation and interpretation. By illustrating how practitioners can use a simple conceptual template to customise HMMs for their specific systems of interest, revealing methodological links between existing applications, and highlighting some practical considerations and limitations of these approaches, our goal is to help establish HMMs as a fundamental inferential tool for ecologists.


Assuntos
Ecologia , Ecossistema , Humanos , Cadeias de Markov
11.
Ecology ; 101(2): e02923, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31655002

RESUMO

Two approaches have been classically used in disease ecology to estimate epidemiological parameters from field studies: cross-sectional sampling from unmarked individuals and longitudinal capture-recapture setups, which generally involve more limited numbers of marked individuals due to cost and logistical constraints. Although the benefits of longitudinal setups are increasingly acknowledged in the disease ecology community, cross-sectional data remain largely overrepresented in the literature, probably because of the inherent costs of longitudinal surveys. In this context, we used simulated data to compare the performances of cross-sectional and longitudinal designs to estimate the force of infection (i.e., the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected). Then, inspired from recent method developments in quantitative ecology, we explore the benefits of integrating both cross-sectional (seroprevalences) and longitudinal (individuals histories) data sets. In doing so, we investigate the effects of host species life history, antibody persistence, and degree of a priori knowledge and uncertainty on demographic and epidemiological parameters, as those are expected to affect in different ways the level of inference possible from the data. Our results highlight how those elements are important to consider in determining optimal sampling designs. In the case of long-lived species exposed to infectious agents resulting in persistent antibody responses, integrated designs are especially valuable as they benefit from the performances of longitudinal designs even with relatively small longitudinal sample sizes. As an illustration, we apply this approach to a combination of empirical and simulated data inspired from a case of bats exposed to a rabies virus. Overall, this work highlights that serology field studies could greatly benefit from the opportunity of integrating cross-sectional and longitudinal designs.


Assuntos
Ecologia , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Incerteza
12.
Ecol Evol ; 9(20): 11707-11715, 2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31695880

RESUMO

Obtaining estimates of animal population density is a key step in providing sound conservation and management strategies for wildlife. For many large carnivores however, estimating density is difficult because these species are elusive and wide-ranging. Here, we focus on providing the first density estimates of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the French Jura and Vosges mountains. We sampled a total of 413 camera trapping sites (with two cameras per site) between January 2011 and April 2016 in seven study areas across seven counties of the French Jura and Vosges mountains. We obtained 592 lynx detections over 19,035 trap days in the Jura mountains and 0 detection over 6,804 trap days in the Vosges mountains. Based on coat patterns, we identified a total number of 92 unique individuals from photographs, including 16 females, 13 males, and 63 individuals of unknown sex. Using spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models, we estimated abundance in the study areas between 5 (SE = 0.1) and 29 (0.2) lynx and density between 0.24 (SE = 0.02) and 0.91 (SE = 0.03) lynx per 100 km2. We also provide a comparison with nonspatial density estimates and discuss the observed discrepancies. Our study is yet another example of the advantage of combining SCR methods and noninvasive sampling techniques to estimate density for elusive and wide-ranging species, like large carnivores. While the estimated densities in the French Jura mountains are comparable to other lynx populations in Europe, the fact that we detected no lynx in the Vosges mountains is alarming. Connectivity should be encouraged between the French Jura mountains, the Vosges mountains, and the Palatinate Forest in Germany where a reintroduction program is currently ongoing. Our density estimates will help in setting a baseline conservation status for the lynx population in France.

13.
Ecol Evol ; 9(11): 6176-6188, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31236212

RESUMO

To successfully perform their long-distance migrations, migratory birds require sites along their migratory routes to rest and refuel. Monitoring the use of so-called stopover and staging sites provides insights into (a) the timing of migration and (b) the importance of a site for migratory bird populations. A recently developed Bayesian superpopulation model that integrates mark-recapture data and ring density data enabled the estimation of stopover timing, duration, and population size. Yet, this model did not account for heterogeneity in encounter (p) and staying (ϕ) probabilities.Here we extended the integrated superpopulation model by implementing finite mixtures to account for heterogeneity in p and ϕ. We used simulations and real data (from 2009-2016) on red knots Calidris canutus, mostly of the subspecies piersmai, staging in Bohai Bay, China, during spring migration to (a) show the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in encounter and staying probabilities to get unbiased estimates of stopover timing, duration, and numbers of migratory birds at staging sites and (b) get accurate stopover parameter estimates for a migratory bird species at a key staging site that is threatened by habitat destruction.Our simulations confirmed that heterogeneity in p affected stopover parameter estimates more than heterogeneity in ϕ, especially when most birds had low p. Bias was particularly severe when most birds had both low ϕ and p. Bias was largest for population size, intermediate for stopover duration and negligible for stopover timing.A total of 50,000-100,000 red knots were estimated to annually stop for 5-9 days in Bohai Bay between 10 and 30 May. This shows the key importance of this staging site for this declining species. There were no clear changes in stopover parameters over time, although stopover population size was substantially lower in 2016 than in preceding years.Our study shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in both encounter and staying probabilities for accurately estimating stopover duration and population size and provides an appropriate modeling framework.

14.
Biol Lett ; 15(5): 20190070, 2019 05 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31039729

RESUMO

Life-history theory predicts that females' age and size affect the level of maternal investment in current reproduction, balanced against the future reproductive effort, maintenance and survival. Using long-term (30 years) individual data on 193 female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus), we assessed age- and size-specific variation on litter size. Litter size varied with maternal age, younger females had higher chances of losing a cub during their first months of life. Results suggest an improvement in reproductive abilities early in life due to experience with subsequent reproductive senescence. Litter size increased with maternal size, indicating that size may reflect individual quality. We also found an optimum in the probability of having twins, suggesting stabilizing selection on female body size. Heterogeneity was observed among the largest females, suggesting that large size comes at a cost.


Assuntos
Ursidae , Animais , Tamanho Corporal , Feminino , Tamanho da Ninhada de Vivíparos , Idade Materna , Gravidez , Reprodução
15.
Ecol Evol ; 9(2): 744-755, 2019 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30766665

RESUMO

Estimating the relative abundance (prevalence) of different population segments is a key step in addressing fundamental research questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation. The raw percentage of individuals in the sample (naive prevalence) is generally used for this purpose, but it is likely to be subject to two main sources of bias. First, the detectability of individuals is ignored; second, classification errors may occur due to some inherent limits of the diagnostic methods. We developed a hidden Markov (also known as multievent) capture-recapture model to estimate prevalence in free-ranging populations accounting for imperfect detectability and uncertainty in individual's classification. We carried out a simulation study to compare naive and model-based estimates of prevalence and assess the performance of our model under different sampling scenarios. We then illustrate our method with a real-world case study of estimating the prevalence of wolf (Canis lupus) and dog (Canis lupus familiaris) hybrids in a wolf population in northern Italy. We showed that the prevalence of hybrids could be estimated while accounting for both detectability and classification uncertainty. Model-based prevalence consistently had better performance than naive prevalence in the presence of differential detectability and assignment probability and was unbiased for sampling scenarios with high detectability. We also showed that ignoring detectability and uncertainty in the wolf case study would lead to underestimating the prevalence of hybrids. Our results underline the importance of a model-based approach to obtain unbiased estimates of prevalence of different population segments. Our model can be adapted to any taxa, and it can be used to estimate absolute abundance and prevalence in a variety of cases involving imperfect detection and uncertainty in classification of individuals (e.g., sex ratio, proportion of breeders, and prevalence of infected individuals).

16.
Conserv Biol ; 33(1): 185-195, 2019 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30009479

RESUMO

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.


Assuntos
Carnívoros , Lynx , Animais , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecologia , Europa (Continente) , Humanos
17.
Commun Biol ; 1: 201, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30480102

RESUMO

Predicting the impact of disease epidemics on wildlife populations is one of the twenty-first century's main conservation challenges. The long-term demographic responses of wildlife populations to epidemics and the life history and social traits modulating these responses are generally unknown, particularly for K-selected social species. Here we develop a stage-structured matrix population model to provide a long-term projection of demographic responses by a keystone social predator, the spotted hyena, to a virulent epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV) in the Serengeti ecosystem in 1993/1994 and predict the recovery time for the population following the epidemic. Using two decades of longitudinal data from 625 known hyenas, we demonstrate that although the reduction in population size was moderate, i.e., the population showed high ecological 'resistance' to the novel CDV genotype present, recovery was slow. Interestingly, high-ranking females accelerated the population's recovery, thereby lessening the impact of the epidemic on the population.

18.
Front Vet Sci ; 5: 197, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30211175

RESUMO

Estimating eco-epidemiological parameters in free-ranging populations can be challenging. As known individuals may be undetected during a field session, or their health status uncertain, the collected data are typically "imperfect". Multi-event capture-mark-recapture (MECMR) models constitute a substantial methodological advance by accounting for such imperfect data. In these models, animals can be "undetected" or "detected" at each time step. Detected animals can be assigned an infection state, such as "susceptible" (S), "infected" (I), or "recovered" (R), or an "unknown" (U) state, when for instance no biological sample could be collected. There may be heterogeneity in the assignment of infection states, depending on the manifestation of the disease in the host or the diagnostic method. For example, if obtaining the samples needed to prove viral infection in a detected animal is difficult, this can result in a low chance of assigning the I state. Currently, it is unknown how much uncertainty MECMR models can tolerate to provide reliable estimates of eco-epidemiological parameters and whether these parameters are sensitive to heterogeneity in the assignment of infection states. We used simulations to assess how estimates of the survival probability of individuals in different infection states and the probabilities of infection and recovery responded to (1) increasing infection state uncertainty (i.e., the proportion of U) from 20 to 90%, and (2) heterogeneity in the probability of assigning infection states. We simulated data, mimicking a highly virulent disease, and used SIR-MECMR models to quantify bias and precision. For most parameter estimates, bias increased and precision decreased gradually with state uncertainty. The probabilities of survival of I and R individuals and of detection of R individuals were very robust to increasing state uncertainty. In contrast, the probabilities of survival and detection of S individuals, and the infection and recovery probabilities showed high biases and low precisions when state uncertainty was >50%, particularly when the assignment of the S state was reduced. Considering this specific disease scenario, SIR-MECMR models are globally robust to state uncertainty and heterogeneity in state assignment, but the previously mentioned parameter estimates should be carefully interpreted if the proportion of U is high.

19.
Funct Ecol ; 32(6): 1424-1435, 2018 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30034074

RESUMO

Few facets of biology vary more than functional traits and life-history traits. To explore this vast variation, functional ecologists and population ecologists have developed independent approaches that identify the mechanisms behind and consequences of trait variation.Collaborative research between researchers using trait-based and demographic approaches remains scarce. We argue that this is a missed opportunity, as the strengths of both approaches could help boost the research agendas of functional ecology and population ecology.This special feature, which spans three journals of the British Ecological Society due to its interdisciplinary nature, showcases state-of-the-art research applying trait-based and demographic approaches to examine relationships between organismal function, life history strategies and population performance across multiple kingdoms. Examples include the exploration of how functional trait × environment interactions affect vital rates and thus explain population trends and species occurrence; the coordination of seed traits and dispersal ability with the pace of life in plants; the incorporation of functional traits in dynamic energy budget models; or the discovery of linkages between microbial functional traits and the fast-slow continuum.Despite their historical isolation, collaborative work between functional ecologists and population ecologists could unlock novel research pathways. We call for an integrative research agenda to evaluate which and when traits are functional, as well as their ability to describe and predict life history strategies and population dynamics. We highlight promising, complementary research avenues to overcome current limitations. These include a more explicit linkage of selection gradients in the context of functional trait-vital rate relationships, and the implementation of standardised protocols to track changes in traits and vital rates over time at the same location and individuals, thus allowing for the explicit incorporation of trade-offs in analyses of covariation of functional traits and life-history traits.


Pocos aspectos varían más en biología que los caracteres funcionales y de historia vital. Para explorar esta vasta variación, los ecólogos funcionales y de poblaciones han desarrollado independientemente métodos que identifican los mecanismos y las consecuencias de dicha variabilidad.Las colaboraciones entre investigadores que utilizan métodos basados en caracteres funcionales y de historia vital son bastante limitadas a día de hoy. Aquí argumentamos que éllo conlleva una gran oportunidad aún por explotar, ya que las fortalezas de ambas metodologías podrían revolucionar las agendas investigadoras de la ecología funcional y de poblaciones.Este número especial, el cual incorpora tres de las revistas de la Sociedad Ecológica Británica debido a su carácter interdisciplinar, contiene investigaciones punteras en la aplicación de metodologías de caracteres funcionales y métodos demográficos para examinar relaciones entre funciones del organismo, estrategias de historia vital, y el rendimiento poblacional en varios reinos. Algunos ejemplos incluyen la exploración de cómo las interacciones de carácter funcional~ambiente afectan las tasas vitales para así explicar tendencias demográficas y ocurrencia de especies; la coordinación de algunas características de las semillas, su habilidad dispersora, y el ritmo vital en el reino vegetal; la incorporación de caracteres funcionales en modelos de presupuesto dinámico de energía; o el descubrimiento de enlaces entre caracteres funcionales en microbios y el continuo rápido­lento.A pesar del aislamiento histórico, las colaboraciones entre la ecología funcional y poblacional podrían abrir novedosas rutas de investigación. Hacemos una llamada para el desarrollo de una agenda investigadora integradora que evalúe cuáles y cuándo los caracteres son funcionales, así como su habilidad para predecir estrategias de historia vital y dinámicas poblacionales. Asimismo, resaltamos aproximaciones investigadoras complementarias y prometedoras para superar las limitaciones actuales, incluyendo una vinculación más explícita de los gradientes de selección en las relaciones carácter funcional~tasa vital, o protocolos estandarizados para examinar cambios temporales en caracteres funcionales y tasas vitales en la misma población e individuos. Éllo permitirá incorporar explícitamente los compromisos energéticos en los análisis de co­variación de caracteres funcionales y de historia vital.


Peu de facettes de la biologie varient autant que les traits fonctionnels et les traits d'histoire de vie. Pour explorer cette grande variation, les écologues fonctionnels et les écologues des populations ont développé des approches indépendantes pour identifier les mécanismes sous­jacents et les conséquences des variations de ces traits.Les interactions entre les chercheurs utilisant les approches soit basées sur les traits fonctionnels soit sur la démographie sont rares. Il s'agit sans aucun doute d'une opportunité manquée car les forces combinées des deux approches pourraient accélérer les agendas de recherches aussi bien de l'écologie fonctionnelle que de l'écologie des populations.Ce numéro spécial, à cheval sur trois journaux de la Société Britannique d'Ecologie, illustre les dernières recherches appliquant les approches qui s'appuient sur les traits et la démographie pour examiner les relations entre les fonctions des organismes, les stratégies d'histoire de vie, et les performances des populations pour différents groupes taxonomiques. Les exemples incluent: (i) l'exploration de la façon dont les interactions traits fonctionnels x environnement affectent les taux vitaux et expliquent l'occurrence des espèces et les tendances populationnelles; (ii) la façon dont le rythme de vie des plantes covarie avec les traits des graines et la capacité de dispersion de celles­ci; (iii) l'incorporation des traits fonctionnels dans les modèles de budget énergétique; (iv) ou encore la découverte d'un lien entre les traits fonctionnels des microbes et le gradient lent­rapide.Malgré leur isolement historique, le travail collaboratif entre les écologues fonctionnels et les écologues des populations pourrait ouvrir de nouvelles voies de recherche. Nous appelons ainsi à une recherche intégrative pour évaluer quels traits sont fonctionnels, et dans quelles mesures, ainsi que leur capacité à décrire et prédire les stratégies d'histoire de vie et la dynamique des populations. Nous mettons en lumière des pistes de recherche prometteuses et complémentaires pour dépasser les limites actuelles. Ces pistes incluent une liaison plus explicite des gradients de sélection dans le contexte de la relation trait fonctionnel~taux vitaux et l'implémentation de protocoles standardisés pour suivre les variations temporelles des traits fonctionnels et les taux vitaux en un même lieu et sur les mêmes individus, permettant ainsi la prise en compte explicite des compromis dans l'analyse de la covariation entre les traits fonctionnels et les traits d'histoire de vie.

20.
Ann Bot ; 121(3): 459-469, 2018 03 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29324980

RESUMO

Background and Aims: Forage quality for herbivores and litter quality for decomposers are two key plant properties affecting ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. Although there is a positive relationship between palatability and decomposition, very few studies have focused on larger vertebrate herbivores while considering links between the digestibility of living leaves and stems and the decomposability of litter and associated traits. The hypothesis tested is that some defences of living organs would reduce their digestibility and, as a consequence, their litter decomposability, through 'afterlife' effects. Additionally in high-fertility conditions the presence of intense herbivory would select for communities dominated by fast-growing plants, which are able to compensate for tissue loss by herbivory, producing both highly digestible organs and easily decomposable litter. Methods: Relationships between dry matter digestibility and decomposability were quantified in 16 dominant species from Mediterranean rangelands, which are subject to management regimes that differ in grazing intensity and fertilization. The digestibility and decomposability of leaves and stems were estimated at peak standing biomass, in plots that were either fertilized and intensively grazed or unfertilized and moderately grazed. Several traits were measured on living and senesced organs: fibre content, dry matter content and nitrogen, phosphorus and tannin concentrations. Key results: Digestibility was positively related to decomposability, both properties being influenced in the same direction by management regime, organ and growth forms. Digestibility of leaves and stems was negatively related to their fibre concentrations, and positively related to their nitrogen concentration. Decomposability was more strongly related to traits measured on living organs than on litter. Digestibility and decomposition were governed by similar structural traits, in particular fibre concentration, affecting both herbivores and micro-organisms through the afterlife effects. Conclusions: This study contributes to a better understanding of the interspecific relationships between forage quality and litter decomposition in leaves and stems and demonstrates the key role these traits play in the link between plant and soil via herbivory and decomposition. Fibre concentration and dry matter content can be considered as good predictors of both digestibility and decomposability.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Herbivoria , Folhas de Planta , Caules de Planta , Biomassa , Região do Mediterrâneo , Nitrogênio/análise , Fósforo/análise , Folhas de Planta/química , Caules de Planta/química , Plantas/química , Taninos/análise
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA
...