Socioeconomic status and quality of multiple sclerosis care in Sweden.

In Sweden's universal healthcare system, it is unknown whether people of higher socioeconomic status receive higher quality multiple sclerosis (MS) care. Using linked clinical and administrative data, we investigated the quality of care received by 4426 adults aged 23-60 with relapsing-remitting MS. In adjusted analyses, we demonstrated that higher premorbid educational attainment is associated with 4-12 % more frequent neurologist visits and MRI scans in the first four years post diagnosis, while higher premorbid income was associated with faster diagnosis-to-treatment times by 34-64 days. Neither education nor income were associated with time to diagnosis. This suggests that the more favourable MS outcomes observed for people of higher socioeconomic status may in part be related to higher quality care.

Big Multiple Sclerosis Data network: an international registry research network.

BACKGROUND: The Big Multiple Sclerosis Data (BMSD) network ( https://bigmsdata.org ) was initiated in 2014 and includes the national multiple sclerosis (MS) registries of the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Italy, and Sweden as well as the international MSBase registry. BMSD has addressed the ethical, legal, technical, and governance-related challenges for data sharing and so far, published three scientific papers on pooled datasets as proof of concept for its collaborative design. DATA COLLECTION: Although BMSD registries operate independently on different platforms, similarities in variables, definitions and data structure allow joint analysis of data. Certain coordinated modifications in how the registries collect adverse event data have been implemented after BMSD consensus decisions, showing the ability to develop together. DATA MANAGEMENT: Scientific projects can be proposed by external sponsors via the coordinating centre and each registry decides independently on participation, respecting its governance structure. Research datasets are established in a project-to-project fashion and a project-specific data model is developed, based on a unifying core data model. To overcome challenges in data sharing, BMSD has developed procedures for federated data analysis. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES: Presently, BMSD is seeking a qualification opinion from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to conduct post-authorization safety studies (PASS) and aims to pursue a qualification opinion also for post-authorization effectiveness studies (PAES). BMSD aspires to promote the advancement of real-world evidence research in the MS field.

The impact of healthcare systems on the clinical diagnosis and disease-modifying treatment usage in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis: a real-world perspective in five registries across Europe.

Introduction: Prescribing guidance for disease-modifying treatment (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is centred on a clinical diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). DMT prescription guidelines and monitoring vary across countries. Standardising the approach to diagnosis of disease course, for example, assigning RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS) diagnoses, allows examination of the impact of health system characteristics on the stated clinical diagnosis and treatment access. Methods: We analysed registry data from six cohorts in five countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and United Kingdom) on patients with an initial diagnosis of RRMS. We standardised our approach utilising a pre-existing algorithm (DecisionTree, DT) to determine patient diagnoses of RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS). We identified five global drivers of DMT prescribing: Provision, Availability, Funding, Monitoring and Audit, data were analysed against these concepts using meta-analysis and univariate meta-regression. Results: In 64,235 patients, we found variations in DMT use between countries, with higher usage in RRMS and lower usage in SPMS, with correspondingly lower usage in the UK compared to other registers. Factors such as female gender (p = 0.041), increasing disability via Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score (p = 0.004), and the presence of monitoring (p = 0.029) in SPMS influenced the likelihood of receiving DMTs. Standardising the diagnosis revealed differences in reclassification rates from clinical RRMS to DT-SPMS, with Sweden having the lowest rate Sweden (Sweden 0.009, range: Denmark 0.103 - UK portal 0.311). Those with higher EDSS at index (p < 0.03) and female gender (p < 0.049) were more likely to be reclassified from RRMS to DT-SPMS. The study also explored the impact of diagnosis on DMT usage in clinical SPMS, finding that the prescribing environment and auditing practices affected access to treatment. Discussion: This highlights the importance of a healthcare system's approach to verifying the clinical label of MS course in facilitating appropriate prescribing, with some flexibility allowed in uncertain cases to ensure continued access to treatment.

Premorbid Sociodemographic Status and Multiple Sclerosis Outcomes in a Universal Health Care Context.

Importance: Multiple sclerosis (MS) severity may be informed by premorbid sociodemographic factors. Objective: To determine whether premorbid education, income, and marital status are associated with future MS disability and symptom severity, independent of treatment, in a universal health care context. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide observational cohort study examined data from the Swedish MS Registry linked to national population registries from 2000 to 2020. Participants included people with MS onset from 2005 to 2015 and of working age (aged 23 to 59 years) 1 year and 5 years preceding disease onset. Exposures: Income quartile, educational attainment, and marital status measured at 1 and 5 years preceding disease onset. Main Outcome and Measures: Repeated measures of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores and patient-reported Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29) scores. Models were adjusted for age, sex, relapses, disease duration, and treatment exposure. Secondary analyses further adjusted for comorbidity. All analyses were stratified by disease course (relapse onset and progressive onset). Results: There were 4557 patients (mean [SD] age, 37.5 [9.3] years; 3136 [68.8%] female, 4195 [92.1%] relapse-onset MS) with sociodemographic data from 1-year preonset of MS. In relapse-onset MS, higher premorbid income and education correlated with lower disability (EDSS, -0.16 [95% CI, -0.12 to -0.20] points) per income quartile; EDSS, -0.47 [95% CI, -0.59 to -0.35] points if tertiary educated), physical symptoms (MSIS-29 physical subscore, -14% [95% CI, -11% to -18%] per income quartile; MSIS-29 physical subscore, -43% [95% CI, -35% to -50%] if tertiary educated), and psychological symptoms (MSIS-29 psychological subscore, -12% [95% CI, -9% to -16%] per income quartile; MSIS-29 psychological subscore, -25% [95% CI, -17% to -33%] if tertiary educated). Marital separation was associated with adverse outcomes (EDSS, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.18 to 0.51]; MSIS-29 physical subscore, 35% [95% CI, 12% to 62%]; MSIS-29 psychological subscore, 25% [95% CI, 8% to 46%]). In progressive-onset MS, higher income correlated with lower EDSS (-0.30 [95% CI, -0.48 to -0.11] points per income quartile) whereas education correlated with lower physical (-34% [95% CI, -53% to -7%]) and psychological symptoms (-33% [95% CI, -54% to -1%]). Estimates for 5-years preonset were comparable with 1-year preonset, as were the comorbidity-adjusted findings. Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of working-age adults with MS, premorbid income, education, and marital status correlated with disability and symptom severity in relapse-onset and progressive-onset MS, independent of treatment. These findings suggest that socioeconomic status may reflect both structural and individual determinants of health in MS.

Association between clinic-level quality of care and patient-level outcomes in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) quality of care guidelines are consensus-based. The effectiveness of the recommendations is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether clinic-level quality of care affects clinical and patient-reported outcomes. METHODS: This nationwide observational cohort study included patients with adult-onset MS in the Swedish MS registry with disease onset 2005-2015. Clinic-level quality of care was measured by four indicators: visit density, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) density, mean time to commencement of disease-modifying therapy, and data completeness. Outcomes were Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and patient-reported symptoms measured by the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29). Analyses were adjusted for individual patient characteristics and disease-modifying therapy exposure. RESULTS: In relapsing MS, all quality indicators benefitted EDSS and physical symptoms. Faster treatment, frequent visits, and higher data completeness benefitted psychological symptoms. After controlling for all indicators and individual treatment exposures, faster treatment remained independently associated with lower EDSS (-0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.01, -0.10) and more frequent visits were associated with milder physical symptoms (MSIS-29 physical score: -16.2%, 95% CI: -1.8%, -29.5%). Clinic-level quality of care did not affect any outcomes in progressive-onset disease. CONCLUSION: Certain quality of care indicators correlated to disability and patient-reported outcomes in relapse-onset but not progressive-onset disease. Future guidelines should consider recommendations specific to disease course.

Proportion and characteristics of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in five European registries using objective classifiers.

Background: To assign a course of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) (SPMS) may be difficult and the proportion of persons with SPMS varies between reports. An objective method for disease course classification may give a better estimation of the relative proportions of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and SPMS and may identify situations where SPMS is under reported. Materials and methods: Data were obtained for 61,900 MS patients from MS registries in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (UK), including date of birth, sex, SP conversion year, visits with an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, MS onset and diagnosis date, relapses, and disease-modifying treatment (DMT) use. We included RRMS or SPMS patients with at least one visit between January 2017 and December 2019 if ≥ 18 years of age. We applied three objective methods: A set of SPMS clinical trial inclusion criteria ("EXPAND criteria") modified for a real-world evidence setting, a modified version of the MSBase algorithm, and a decision tree-based algorithm recently published. Results: The clinically assigned proportion of SPMS varied from 8.7% (Czechia) to 34.3% (UK). Objective classifiers estimated the proportion of SPMS from 15.1% (Germany by the EXPAND criteria) to 58.0% (UK by the decision tree method). Due to different requirements of number of EDSS scores, classifiers varied in the proportion they were able to classify; from 18% (UK by the MSBase algorithm) to 100% (the decision tree algorithm for all registries). Objectively classified SPMS patients were older, converted to SPMS later, had higher EDSS at index date and higher EDSS at conversion. More objectively classified SPMS were on DMTs compared to the clinically assigned. Conclusion: SPMS appears to be systematically underdiagnosed in MS registries. Reclassified patients were more commonly on DMTs.

Trajectories of disease-modifying therapies and associated sickness absence and disability pension among 1923 people with multiple sclerosis in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the trajectories of disease-modifying therapy (DMT) use and their association with sickness absence and/or disability pension (SADP) among people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). The objective of the study was to identify trajectories of DMT use over 10 years among PwMS, identify sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with the trajectories, and to assess the association between identified trajectories and SADP days. METHODS: A longitudinal register-based study was conducted, on a prospective data set linked across six nationwide registers, assessing treatment courses of PwMS with DMTs for the 10 years following multiple sclerosis (MS) onset. The study included 1923 PwMS with MS onset in 2007-2010, when aged 19-56 years. In each 6-month-period, their treatment was categorized as before treatment, high-efficacy, non-high-efficacy, or no DMT. Sequence analysis was performed to identify sequences of the treatment categories and cluster them into different DMT trajectories. Cluster belonging, in relation to demographic and clinical characteristics, was assessed through log-multinomial regression analysis. The association of trajectories/cluster-belonging with SADP net days was assessed using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. RESULTS: Cluster analyses identified 4 trajectories of DMT use: long-term non-high-efficacy DMTs (38.6%), escalation to high-efficacy DMTs (31.2%), delayed start and escalation to high-efficacy DMTs (15.4%), and discontinued/ no DMT (14.2%). Age, MS type, expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score and the number of DMT switches were associated with cluster belonging. The youngest age group (18-25) were more likely to be in the escalation to high-efficacy cluster. People with primary progressive MS were more likely to be in the delayed start or discontinued/ no DMT cluster. Higher EDSS scores were associated to being in the other three clusters than in the long-term non-high-efficacy DMTs cluster. Higher number of DMT switches were associated with being in the escalation to high-efficacy DMTs cluster but less likely to be in the delayed start or discontinued/ no DMT clusters. Descriptive analyses showed a trend of fewer mean SADP days among PwMS using non-high-efficacy DMT than the other clusters about 9 years after onset. PwMS in the escalation to high-efficacy and discontinued/no DMT clusters had more SADP days. PwMS in the delayed start and escalation to high-efficacy DMTs cluster, started with fewer SADP days which increased over time. SADP days adjusted through GEE models showed trends comparable with the descriptive analysis. CONCLUSION: This study described the long-term real-world trajectories of DMT use among PwMS in Sweden using sequence analysis and showed the association of the trajectories with SADP days as well as sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.

Predictors of treatment switching in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network.

Background: Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods. Objective: The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry. Methods: In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect. Results: Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1996 and 2006 (aHR 2.48; 95% CI 2.48-2.56). DMTs started from 2013 onwards were more likely to switch relative to the earlier treatment epoch (aHR 8.09; 95% CI 7.79-8.41; reference = 1996-2006). Conclusion: Switching between DMTs is associated with female sex, age, and disability at baseline and has increased in frequency considerably in recent years as more treatment options have become available. Consideration of a patient's individual risk and tolerance profile needs to be taken into account when selecting the most appropriate switch therapy from an expanding array of treatment choices.

Copy number variations across the blood-brain barrier in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neuroinflammatory disease where immune cells cross the blood-brain barrier (BBB) into the central nervous system (CNS). What predisposes these immune cells to cross the BBB is still unknown. Here, we examine the possibility that genomic rearrangements could predisposespecific immune cells in the peripheral blood to cross the BBB and form sub-populations of cells involved in the inflammatory process in the CNS. METHODS: We compared copy number variations in paired peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cells from MS patients. Thereafter, using next generation sequencing, we studied the T-cell receptor beta (TRB) locus rearrangements and profiled the αß T cell repertoire in peripheral CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and in the CSF. RESULTS: We identified deletions in the T-cell receptor alpha/delta (TRA/D), gamma (TRG), and TRB loci in CSF cells compared to PBMCs. Further characterization revealed diversity of the TRB locus which was used to describe the character and clonal expansion of T cells in the CNS. T-cell repertoire profiling from either side of the BBB concluded that the most frequent clones in the CSF samples are unique to an individual. Furthermore, we observed a difference in the proportion of expanded T-cell clones when comparing samples from MS patients in relapse and remission with opposite trends in CSF and peripheral blood. INTERPRETATION: This study provides a characterization of the T cells in the CSF and might indicate a role of expanded clones in MS pathogenicity.

A comparative study of teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate within the Swedish MS Registry.

BACKGROUND: Teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (DMF) are first-line disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis with similar labels that are used in comparable populations. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness and persistence of teriflunomide and DMF in a Swedish real-world setting. METHODS: All relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in the Swedish MS registry initiating teriflunomide or DMF were included in the analysis. The primary endpoint was treatment persistence. Propensity score matching was used to adjust comparisons for baseline confounders. RESULTS: A total of 353 teriflunomide patients were successfully matched to 353 DMF. There was no difference in the rate of overall treatment discontinuation by treatment group across the entire observation period (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.91-1.39; p = 0.277; reference = teriflunomide). Annualised relapse rate (ARR) was comparable (p = 0.237) between DMF (0.07; 95% CI = 0.05-0.10) and teriflunomide (0.09; 95% CI = 0.07-0.12). There was no difference in time to first on-treatment relapse (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.50-1.21), disability progression (HR = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.27-1.12) or confirmed improvement (HR = 1.17; 95% CI = 0.57-2.36). CONCLUSION: This population-based real-world study reports similarities in treatment persistence, clinical effectiveness and quality of life outcomes between teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate.

Increased rate of hospitalisation for COVID-19 among rituximab-treated multiple sclerosis patients: A study of the Swedish multiple sclerosis registry.

BACKGROUND: The primary objective of this study was to analyse the association between multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy (DMT) exposure and hospitalisation in patients infected with COVID-19. METHODS: Associations between MS DMT exposure and COVID-19 hospitalisation were analysed using univariable and multi-variable-clustered propensity score weighted logistic regression, where the models were clustered on the individual patients to control for patients contributing multiple COVID-19 episodes. FINDINGS: As of 18 January 2021, a total of 476 reported COVID-19 cases had been recorded in MS patients in the Swedish MS registry. Of these, 292 (61.3%) had confirmed COVID-19. The mean value (standard deviation (SD)) age at infection was 44.0 years (11.6). Of the 292 confirmed infections, 68 (23.2%) required hospitalisation. A total of 49 of the 164 confirmed COVID-19 patients on rituximab at baseline (29.9%) required hospitalisation, compared to a rate of 12.7% for all other DMTs combined. Rituximab in confirmed COVID-19 patients was associated with 2.95 times the odds of hospitalisation relative to any other DMT combined (odds ratio = 2.95; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.48-5.87). INTERPRETATION: Rituximab treatment, known to increase the risk of severe infections in general, also confers such a risk for MS patients with COVID-19, in comparison with other MS DMTs.

Associations of Disease-Modifying Therapies With COVID-19 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: People with multiple sclerosis (MS) are a vulnerable group for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly those taking immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). We examined the characteristics of COVID-19 severity in an international sample of people with MS. METHODS: Data from 12 data sources in 28 countries were aggregated (sources could include patients from 1-12 countries). Demographic (age, sex), clinical (MS phenotype, disability), and DMT (untreated, alemtuzumab, cladribine, dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, interferon, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, rituximab, siponimod, other DMTs) covariates were queried, along with COVID-19 severity outcomes, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, need for artificial ventilation, and death. Characteristics of outcomes were assessed in patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, MS phenotype, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. RESULTS: Six hundred fifty-seven (28.1%) with suspected and 1,683 (61.9%) with confirmed COVID-19 were analyzed. Among suspected plus confirmed and confirmed-only COVID-19, 20.9% and 26.9% were hospitalized, 5.4% and 7.2% were admitted to ICU, 4.1% and 5.4% required artificial ventilation, and 3.2% and 3.9% died. Older age, progressive MS phenotype, and higher disability were associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to dimethyl fumarate, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.41; aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.48-4.02) and ICU admission (aOR 2.30, 95% CI 0.98-5.39; aOR 3.93, 95% CI 1.56-9.89), although only rituximab was associated with higher risk of artificial ventilation (aOR 4.00, 95% CI 1.54-10.39). Compared to pooled other DMTs, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (aOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.29-2.38; aOR 2.76, 95% CI 1.87-4.07) and ICU admission (aOR 2.55, 95% CI 1.49-4.36; aOR 4.32, 95% CI 2.27-8.23), but only rituximab was associated with artificial ventilation (aOR 6.15, 95% CI 3.09-12.27). Compared to natalizumab, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.13-3.07; aOR 2.88, 95% CI 1.68-4.92) and ICU admission (aOR 2.13, 95% CI 0.85-5.35; aOR 3.23, 95% CI 1.17-8.91), but only rituximab was associated with ventilation (aOR 5.52, 95% CI 1.71-17.84). Associations persisted on restriction to confirmed COVID-19 cases. No associations were observed between DMTs and death. Stratification by age, MS phenotype, and EDSS score found no indications that DMT associations with COVID-19 severity reflected differential DMT allocation by underlying COVID-19 severity. DISCUSSION: Using the largest cohort of people with MS and COVID-19 available, we demonstrated consistent associations of rituximab with increased risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and need for artificial ventilation and of ocrelizumab with hospitalization and ICU admission. Despite the cross-sectional design of the study, the internal and external consistency of these results with prior studies suggests that rituximab/ocrelizumab use may be a risk factor for more severe COVID-19.

Plasma protein profiling reveals candidate biomarkers for multiple sclerosis treatment.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment options have improved significantly over the past decades, but the consequences of MS can still be devastating and the needs for monitoring treatment surveillance are considerable. In the current study we used affinity proteomics technology to identify potential biomarkers which could ultimately be used to as facilitate treatment decisions. We profiled the intra-individual changes in the levels of 59 target proteins using an antibody suspension bead array in serial plasma samples from 44 MS patients during treatment with natalizumab followed by fingolimod. Nine proteins showed decreasing plasma levels during natalizumab treatment, with PEBP1 and RTN3 displaying the most significant changes. Protein levels remained stable during fingolimod treatment for both proteins. The decreasing PEBP1 levels during natalizumab treatment could be validated using ELISA and replicated in an independent cohort. These results support the use of this technology as a high throughput method of identifying potentially useful biomarkers of MS treatment.

Cognitive function is a major determinant of income among multiple sclerosis patients in Sweden acting independently from physical disability.

BACKGROUND: In multiple sclerosis (MS), various aspects of cognitive function can be detrimentally affected, thus patients' employment and social functioning is commonly impacted. OBJECTIVE: To analyse income among MS patients in relation to cognitive function, assessed with the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). METHODS: A cross-sectional study including 2080 MS patients was conducted linking national register-based data. Descriptive statistics and a two-part model were used to estimate differences in earnings and social benefits. RESULTS: MS patients in the highest SDMT score quartile earned more than twice annually compared to patients in the lowest quartile, whereas patients in the lowest quartile received three times more income through social benefits. The difference in earnings and benefits across the SDMT performance quartiles remained statistically significant after adjusting for various clinical and socio-demographic variables, including physical disability. The corrected prevalence ratios for MS patients in the highest quartile for having income from earnings and benefits were 1.40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-1.49) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.71-0.90), respectively, when compared to the patients in the lowest quartile. CONCLUSION: Cognitive function affects the financial situation of MS patients negatively and independently of physical disability. This warrants cognitive testing as a routine measure in health care services for MS patients.

Predicting risk of secondary progression in multiple sclerosis: A nomogram.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed at designing a nomogram, a prediction tool, to predict the individual's risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) at the time of multiple sclerosis (MS) onset. METHODS: One derivation and three validation cohorts were established. The derivation cohort included 8825 relapsing-onset MS patients in Sweden. A nomogram was built based on a survival model with the best statistical fit and prediction accuracy. The nomogram was validated using data from 3967 patients in the British Columbia cohort, 176 patients in the ACROSS and 2355 patients in FREEDOMS/FREEDOMS II extension studies. RESULTS: Sex, calendar year of birth, first-recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, age at the first EDSS and age at disease onset showed significant predictive ability to estimate the risk of SPMS conversion at 10, 15 and 20 years. The nomogram reached 84% (95% confidence intervals (CIs): 83-85) internal and 77% (95% CI: 76-78), 77% (95% CI: 70-85) and 87% (95% CI: 84-89) external accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The SPMS nomogram represents a much-needed complementary tool designed to assist in decision-making and patient counselling in the early phase of MS. The SPMS nomogram may improve outcomes by prompting timely and more efficacious treatment for those with a worse prognosis.

Neutrophil activation signature in juvenile idiopathic arthritis indicates the presence of low-density granulocytes.

Objective: JIA is an autoimmune, inflammatory disease with involvement of innate and adaptive immune responses. However, the role of neutrophils in JIA pathogenesis remains unclear. This study aimed to identify and validate neutrophil gene expression signatures in JIA using public microarray datasets and new clinical samples. Methods: Three suitable datasets were analysed by significance analysis of microarray and Ingenuity. Neutrophils and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated from a new cohort of JIA patients and healthy paediatric controls (HCs). Gene expression was validated using quantitative PCR. Serum concentrations of proteins were measured using ELISA. Low-density granulocytes (LDGs) in JIA and HC PBMCs were quantified by flow cytometry using forward/side-scatter properties. Results: Ingenuity identified transcriptional regulation (false discovery rate < 0.05) by G-CSF, GM-CSF and IL-8 along with expression of neutrophil granule protein genes including ELANE, MPO, MMP8 and MMP9 in datasets from JIA PBMCs. LDG counts were elevated in JIA compared with HCs (2.5% vs 1.4%; P = 0.007). Transcripts for MMP8 (P = 0.005), MPO (P = 0.0124) and Fcγ Receptor 1B (FCγR1B) (P = 0.0417) were significantly higher in JIA compared with HC neutrophils. MMP9 protein levels were lower in systemic JIA patient sera [355.95 ng/ml (s.d. 250.03)] compared with HCs [675.41 ng/ml (s.d. 181.17); P = 0.007], but levels of elastase, MPO and MMP8 were not significantly different. Conclusion: LDGs are elevated in JIA and contribute to the transcriptomic profile of JIA PBMCs. JIA neutrophils express higher levels of MMP8 and FCGR1B, which may be implicated in disease pathology through the release of proteases and reactive oxygen metabolites, causing systemic inflammation and damage to joints.

Multiple sclerosis treatment effects on plasma cytokine receptor levels.

Genetic variants within some cytokine receptor genes have been associated with MS susceptibility, including IL7RA and IL2RA. As these genes are expressed by cells targeted by immune-modulatory drugs, we explored the potential role of their gene products as biomarkers in monitoring MS treatment. We assessed the impact of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on the intra-individual changes of plasma protein levels of sIL-7Rα, sIL-2Rα and also sIL-6R and sgp130 in MS patients. During natalizumab treatment we observed a decline in sgp130 and sIL-7Rα levels, while subsequent fingolimod treatment lead to increased sgp130 and sIL-7Rα and decreased sIL-2Rα levels. In addition, during fingolimod treatment sIL-7Rα levels were increasing significantly more in patients homozygous for the MS risk genotype of rs6897932. We also observed an effect of the MS associated rs71624119 on sgp130 levels. These results may elucidate the pharmacodynamics of treatments and help identify biomarkers for MS outcomes.

Age Related Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score: Disability ranked by age.

BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) is obtained by normalising the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score for disease duration and has been a valuable tool in cross-sectional studies. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether use of age rather than the inherently ambiguous disease duration was a feasible approach. METHOD: We pooled disability data from three population-based cohorts and developed an Age Related Multiple Sclerosis Severity (ARMSS) score by ranking EDSS scores based on the patient's age at the time of assessment. We established the power to detect a difference between groups afforded by the ARMSS score and assessed its relative consistency over time. RESULTS: The study population included 26058 patients from Sweden ( n = 11846), Canada ( n = 6179) and the United Kingdom ( n = 8033). There was a moderate correlation between EDSS and disease duration ( r = 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45-0.47) and between EDSS and age ( r = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.43-0.45). The ARMSS scores showed comparable power to detect disability differences between groups to the updated and original MSSS. CONCLUSION: Since age is typically unbiased and readily obtained, and the ARMSS and MSSS were comparable, the ARMSS may provide a more versatile tool and could minimise study biases and loss of statistical power caused by inaccurate or missing onset dates.

Income in Multiple Sclerosis Patients with Different Disease Phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a disease with profound heterogeneity in clinical course. OBJECTIVE: To analyze sources and levels of income among MS patients in relation to disease phenotype with a special focus on identifying differences/similarities between primary progressive MS (PPMS) and secondary progressive MS (SPMS). METHODS: A total of 6890 MS patients aged 21-64 years and living in Sweden in 2010 were identified for this cross-sectional study. Descriptive statistics, logistic, truncated linear, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to estimate differences in income between SPMS, PPMS and relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients. RESULTS: RRMS patients earned almost twice as much as PPMS and SPMS patients (on average SEK 204,500, SEK 114,500, and SEK 79,800 in 2010, respectively). The difference in earnings between PPMS and SPMS was not statistically significant when analyzed with multivariable regression. The estimated odds ratio for PPMS patients to have income from earnings was not significantly different from SPMS patients (95% CI 0.98 to 1.59). PPMS and RRMS patients were less likely to receive benefits when compared to SPMS patients (by 6% and 27% lower, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our findings argue for similarities between PPMS and SPMS and highlight the socioeconomic importance of preventing RRMS patients convert to SPMS.

Importance of early treatment initiation in the clinical course of multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify factors influencing the long-term clinical progression of multiple sclerosis (MS). A special objective was to investigate whether early treatment decisions influence outcome. METHODS: We included 639 patients diagnosed with MS from 2001 to 2007. The median follow-up time was 99 months (8.25 years). Cox regression models were applied to identify factors correlating with the outcome variable defined as time from treatment start to irreversible score 4 of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). RESULTS: Patients initiated on treatment later had a greater risk of reaching EDSS 4 (hazard ratio of 1.074 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.048-1.101)), increased by 7.4% for every year of delay in treatment start after MS onset. Patients who started treatment after 3 years from MS onset reached the outcome sooner with hazard ratio of 2.64 (95% CI, 1.71-4.08) compared with the patients who started treatment within 1 year from MS onset. Baseline EDSS and age at onset were found to be predictive factors of disability progression. CONCLUSION: Early treatment initiation was associated with a better clinical outcome. In addition, we confirmed the well-established prognostic factors of late age at onset and early disability.