Associations Between Surrogate Markers and Clinical Outcomes for Nononcologic Chronic Disease Treatments.

Importance: Surrogate markers are increasingly used as primary end points in clinical trials supporting drug approvals. Objective: To systematically summarize the evidence from meta-analyses, systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and pooled analyses (hereafter, meta-analyses) of clinical trials examining the strength of association between treatment effects measured using surrogate markers and clinical outcomes in nononcologic chronic diseases. Data sources: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adult Surrogate Endpoint Table and MEDLINE from inception to March 19, 2023. Study Selection: Three reviewers selected meta-analyses of clinical trials; meta-analyses of observational studies were excluded. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two reviewers extracted correlation coefficients, coefficients of determination, slopes, effect estimates, or results from meta-regression analyses between surrogate markers and clinical outcomes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination, when reported, was classified as high strength (r ≥ 0.85 or R2 ≥ 0.72); primary findings were otherwise summarized. Results: Thirty-seven surrogate markers listed in FDA's table and used as primary end points in clinical trials across 32 unique nononcologic chronic diseases were included. For 22 (59%) surrogate markers (21 chronic diseases), no eligible meta-analysis was identified. For 15 (41%) surrogate markers (14 chronic diseases), at least 1 meta-analysis was identified, 54 in total (median per surrogate marker, 2.5; IQR, 1.3-6.0); among these, median number of trials and patients meta-analyzed was 18.5 (IQR, 12.0-43.0) and 90 056 (IQR, 20 109-170 014), respectively. The 54 meta-analyses reported 109 unique surrogate marker-clinical outcome pairs: 59 (54%) reported at least 1 r or R2, 10 (17%) of which reported at least 1 classified as high strength, whereas 50 (46%) reported slopes, effect estimates, or results of meta-regression analyses only, 26 (52%) of which reported at least 1 statistically significant result. Conclusions and Relevance: Most surrogate markers used as primary end points in clinical trials to support FDA approval of drugs treating nononcologic chronic diseases lacked high-strength evidence of associations with clinical outcomes from published meta-analyses.

Predictive Model for Positive Video Capsule Endoscopy in Iron Deficiency Anemia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Bleeding from the gastrointestinal tract can contribute to the development of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) among individuals without another obvious source of bleeding. In order to identify patients most likely to benefit from examination of the small bowel, our aim was to create a risk score for positive video capsule endoscopy (VCE) in IDA utilizing a multicenter collection of studies. METHODS: We performed a retrospective multicenter study utilizing VCE studies performed for an indication of IDA between 1/1/2005 and 7/31/2018. VCE findings were graded based on the P0-P2 grading system. The primary outcome of interest was a positive (P2) VCE. Data were analyzed with Student's t test for continuous variables and the Fisher's exact test for categorical variables. Logistic regression was used to identify independent associations with positive VCE. RESULTS: In total, 765 VCE procedures were included with 355 (46.5%) male subjects and a median age of 63.2 (SD 15.3) years. One hundred ninety studies (24.8%) were positive (P2) for small bowel bleeding. Four variables associated with positive VCE which were incorporated into a point scoring system: (+) 1 for age ≥ 66 years, active smoking and cardiac arrythmia and (-) 1 for preceding hemoglobin level ≥ 8.5. The risk probabilities for positive VCE-assigned scores - 1, 0, 1, and 2 + were 12.3% (95% CI 7.3-17.3%), 20% (14.9-25.1%), 34.8% (28.6-41%), and 39% (30-47.8%). CONCLUSION: In order to improve the diagnostic yield of capsule examinations, risk factors should be applied to clinical decision-making. We created a risk score for positive VCE in IDA, including the risk factors of age, smoking, history of cardiac arrythmia, and preceding hemoglobin level.

Nonutility of procalcitonin for diagnosing bacterial pneumonia in patients with severe COVID-19.

Background: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are at significant risk for superimposed bacterial pneumonia. However, diagnosing superinfection is challenging due to its clinical resemblance to severe COVID-19. We therefore evaluated whether the immune biomarker, procalcitonin, could facilitate the diagnosis of bacterial superinfection. Methods: We retrospectively identified 185 patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 who underwent lower respiratory culture; 85 had evidence of bacterial superinfection. Receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC) analyses were performed to assess the utility of procalcitonin for diagnosing superinfection. Results: This approach demonstrated that procalcitonin measured at the time of culture was incapable of distinguishing patients with bacterial infection (AUC, 0.52). The AUC not affected by exposure to antibiotics, treatment with immunomodulatory agents, or timing of procalcitonin measurement. Conclusion: Static measurement of procalcitonin does not aid in the diagnosis of superinfection in severe COVID-19.

Impact of thiopurine dose in anti-tumor necrosis factor combination therapy on outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease.

Background: Combination therapy with thiopurines and anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) is superior to monotherapy in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). The optimal dose of thiopurines in combination therapy remains unclear. We investigated the impact of thiopurine dose in combination therapy on outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: This was a single-center, retrospective study of patients with IBD treated with thiopurine and anti-TNF combination therapy between 1/2012 and 11/2020. A therapeutic dose of thiopurines was defined as ≥1 mg/kg for 6-mercaptopurine and ≥2 mg/kg for azathioprine. The primary outcome was anti-drug antibody (ADA) formation in patients on a therapeutic thiopurine dose vs. a lower thiopurine dose group. Secondary outcomes included steroid-free clinical remission, endoscopic healing (absence of ulcers/erosions in CD and Mayo endoscopic score ≤1 for UC), and normal serum C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients who were on combination therapy. Results: A total of 108 patients were included (median age 31.5 years; 58.3% male). A therapeutic dose of thiopurine was used in 19%. In the therapeutic thiopurine dose group, 23.8% developed ADA vs. 29.9% (P=0.58) in the lower dose group. No significant differences were noted between the therapeutic and lower dose thiopurine groups in terms of steroid-free clinical remission (57.1% vs. 60.9%, P=0.75), endoscopic healing (55% vs. 60%, P=0.69), and normal CRP (52.4% vs. 52.9%, P=0.27). Conclusion: In our cohort of patients with IBD on anti-TNF combination therapy, thiopurine dose was not associated with significant differences in anti-TNF immunogenicity and clinical outcomes.

Cardiac tamponade as the initial presentation of autoimmune polyglandular syndrome Type 2: a case report.

Background: Cardiac tamponade is a rare but serious manifestation of autoimmune polyglandular syndrome Type 2 (APS 2). Patients often present with symptoms of thyroid dysfunction and adrenal insufficiency, but the insidious onset of the disease may lead to delayed diagnosis, which can progress rapidly to haemodynamic instability requiring urgent intervention. Case summary: A 39-year-old previously healthy male was admitted with cardiac tamponade complicated by cardiac arrest requiring emergent pericardiocentesis. An extensive work up revealed primary adrenal insufficiency and Hashimoto's thyroiditis. His positive autoantibodies to thyroid peroxidase and 21-hydroxylase combined with rapid improvement with initiation of corticosteroids and levothyroxine confirmed a diagnosis of APS 2. Discussion: Although this disease is often difficult to diagnose given its vague symptoms, it should be considered in the differential diagnosis for young patients presenting with pericardial effusion or cardiac tamponade of unknown origin. Early diagnosis and management are critical and often result in rapid improvement after appropriate treatment.

Nonutility of procalcitonin for diagnosing bacterial pneumonia in COVID-19.

Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are at significant risk for superimposed bacterial pneumonia. However, diagnosing superinfection is challenging due to its clinical resemblance to severe COVID-19. We therefore evaluated whether the immune biomarker, procalcitonin, could facilitate the diagnosis of bacterial superinfection. To do so, we identified 185 patients with severe COVID-19 who underwent lower respiratory culture; 85 had superinfection. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that procalcitonin at the time of culture was incapable of distinguishing patients with bacterial infection (AUC, 0.52). We conclude that static measurement of procalcitonin does not aid in the diagnosis of superinfection in severe COVID-19.

Histopathology of Colectomy Specimens Predicts Endoscopic Pouch Phenotype in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND: The endoscopic appearance in patients with "pouchitis" after ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) for ulcerative colitis (UC) can be quite heterogenous. Patients with an endoscopic phenotype resembling Crohn's disease (CD) are at high risk of pouch loss. AIMS: We aimed to assess how the histopathology of colectomy specimens predicts endoscopic pouch phenotypes in UC. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed pouchoscopies from patients with UC who underwent IPAA and classified pouch findings into 7 main phenotypes: (1) normal, (2) afferent limb involvement, (3) inlet involvement, (4) diffuse, (5) focal inflammation of the pouch body, (6) cuffitis, and (7) pouch with fistulas noted ≥ 6 months from ileostomy takedown. We assessed the clinical and pathological data including deep, focal inflammation, granulomas, and terminal ileal involvement in the colectomy specimens. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify contributing factors to each phenotype. RESULTS: This study included 1,203 pouchoscopies from 382 patients with UC. On multivariable analysis, deep inflammation was significantly associated with pouch fistulas (Odds ratio 3.27; 95% confidence interval 1.65-6.47; P = 0.0007). Of the 75 patients with deep inflammation, only two patients (2.7%) were diagnosed with CD based on pathology review. Terminal ileal involvement significantly increased the risk of afferent limb involvement (Odds ratio 2.96; 95% confidence interval 1.04-8.47; P = 0.04). There were no significant associations between other microscopic features and phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: We identify histologic features of colectomy specimens in UC that predict subsequent pouch phenotypes. Particularly, deep inflammation in the resected colon was significantly associated with pouch fistulas, a pouch phenotype with poor prognosis.

Outcomes of Ileoanal Pouch Anastomosis in Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Are Worse in the Modern Era: A Time Trend Analysis Outcomes Following Ileal Pouch-Anal Anastomosis in Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND: Despite significant differences in surgical outcomes between pediatric and adult patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) undergoing colectomy, counseling on pediatric outcomes has largely been guided by data from adults. We compared differences in pouch survival between pediatric and adult patients who underwent total proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA). METHODS: This was a retrospective single-center study of patients with UC treated with IPAA who subsequently underwent pouchoscopy between 1980 and 2019. Data were collected via electronic medical records. We stratified the study population based on age at IPAA. Differences between groups were assessed using t tests and chi-square tests. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare survival probabilities. Differences between groups were assessed using a log-rank test. RESULTS: We identified 53 patients with UC who underwent IPAA before 19 years of age and 329 patients with UC who underwent IPAA at or after 19 years of age. Subjects who underwent IPAA as children were more likely to require anti-tumor nerosis factor (TNF) postcolectomy compared with adults (41.5% vs 25.8%; P < .05). Kaplan-Meier estimates revealed that pediatric patients who underwent IPAA in the last 10 years had a 5-year pouch survival probability that was 28% lower than that of those who underwent surgery in the 1990s or 2000s (72% vs 100%; P < .001). Further, children who underwent IPAA and received anti-TNF therapies precolectomy had the most rapid progression to pouch failure when compared with anti-TNF-naive children and with adults who were either exposed or naive precolectomy (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: There are lower rates of pouch survival for children with UC who underwent IPAA following the uptake of anti-TNF therapy compared with both historical pediatric control subjects and contemporary adults.

Ileal pouch­anal anastomosis is the most common surgical approach for patients with ulcerative colitis undergoing total proctocolectomy. Outcomes are informed by heterogeneous adult data cohorts often predating anti-tumor necrosis factor uptake. We find that for children in the modern era pouch loss occurs at higher rates.

Endoscopic Phenotype of the J Pouch in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A New Classification for Pouch Outcomes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pouchitis is a common complication of ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) in patients with ulcerative colitis who have undergone colectomy. Pouchitis has been considered a single entity despite a broad array of clinical and endoscopic patterns. We developed a novel classification system based on the pattern of inflammation observed in pouches and evaluated the contributing factors and prognosis of each phenotype. METHODS: We identified 426 patients (384 with ulcerative colitis) treated with proctocolectomy and IPAA who subsequently underwent pouchoscopies at the University of Chicago between June 1997 and December 2019. We retrospectively reviewed 1359 pouchoscopies and classified them into 7 main pouch phenotypes: (1) normal, (2) afferent limb involvement, (3) inlet involvement, (4) diffuse, (5) focal inflammation of the pouch body, (6) cuffitis, and (7) pouch with fistulas noted 6 months after ileostomy takedown. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors contributing to each phenotype. Pouch survival was estimated by the log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Significant contributing factors for afferent limb involvement were a body mass index of 25 or higher and hand-sewn anastomosis, for inlet involvement the significant contributing factor was male sex; for diffuse inflammation the significant contributing factors were extensive colitis and preoperative use of anti-tumor necrosis factor drugs, for cuffitis the significant contributing factors were stapled anastomosis and preoperative Clostridioides difficile infection. Inlet stenosis, diffuse inflammation, and cuffitis significantly increased the risk of pouch excision. Diffuse inflammation was associated independently with pouch excision (hazard ratio, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.34-5.41; P = .005). CONCLUSIONS: We describe 7 unique IPAA phenotypes with different contributing factors and outcomes, and propose a new classification system for pouch management and future interventional studies.

Detection of pneumococcus during hospitalization for SARS-CoV-2.

Background: Infections with respiratory viruses [e.g. influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)] can increase the risk of severe pneumococcal infections. Likewise, pneumococcal coinfection is associated with poorer outcomes in viral respiratory infection. However, there are limited data describing the frequency of pneumococcus and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection and the role of coinfection in influencing COVID-19 severity. We, therefore, investigated the detection of pneumococcus in COVID-19 inpatients during the early pandemic period. Methods: The study included patients aged 18 years and older, admitted to the Yale-New Haven Hospital who were symptomatic for respiratory infection and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during March-August 2020. Patients were tested for pneumococcus through culture-enrichment of saliva followed by RT-qPCR (to identify carriage) and serotype-specific urine antigen detection (UAD) assays (to identify presumed lower respiratory tract pneumococcal disease). Results: Among 148 subjects, the median age was 65 years; 54.7% were male; 50.7% had an ICU stay; 64.9% received antibiotics; and 14.9% died while admitted. Pneumococcal carriage was detected in 3/96 (3.1%) individuals tested by saliva RT-qPCR. Additionally, pneumococcus was detected in 14/127 (11.0%) individuals tested by UAD, and more commonly in severe than moderate COVID-19 [OR: 2.20; 95% CI: (0.72, 7.48)]; however, the numbers were small with a high degree of uncertainty. None of the UAD-positive individuals died. Conclusions: Pneumococcal lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), as detected by positive UAD, occurred in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Moreover, pneumococcal LRTI was more common in those with more serious COVID-19 outcomes. Future studies should assess how pneumococcus and SARS-CoV-2 interact to influence COVID-19 severity in hospitalized patients.

Acute encephalopathy with elevated CSF inflammatory markers as the initial presentation of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus SARS-CoV-2. It is widely recognized as a respiratory pathogen, but neurologic complications can be the presenting manifestation in a subset of infected patients. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe a 78-year old immunocompromised woman who presented with altered mental status after witnessed seizure-like activity at home. She was found to have SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated neuroinflammation. In this case, we undertake the first detailed analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cytokines during COVID-19 infection and find a unique pattern of inflammation in CSF, but no evidence of viral neuroinvasion. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that neurologic symptoms such as encephalopathy and seizures may be the initial presentation of COVID-19. Central nervous system inflammation may associate with neurologic manifestations of disease.

Acute encephalopathy with elevated CSF inflammatory markers as the initial presentation of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus SARS-CoV-2. It is widely recognized as a respiratory pathogen, but neurologic complications can be the presenting manifestation in a subset of infected patients. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe a 78-year old immunocompromised woman who presented with altered mental status after witnessed seizure-like activity at home. She was found to have SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated neuroinflammation. In this case, we undertake the first detailed analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cytokines during COVID-19 infection and find a unique pattern of inflammation in CSF, but no evidence of viral neuroinvasion. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that neurologic symptoms such as encephalopathy and seizures may be the initial presentation of COVID-19. Central nervous system inflammation may associate with neurologic manifestations of disease.

A case of Good's syndrome complicated by erythema multiforme.

Good's syndrome (GS) is a rare, adult-onset combined B cell and T cell immunodeficiency with an associated thymoma. These patients have an increased risk of bacterial, fungal, viral and opportunistic infections. This report describes a 75-year-old female patient who presented with a full body rash and an anterior mediastinal mass. She underwent a biopsy of her rash and mass, which revealed erythema multiforme and WHO Type A thymoma, respectively. During her hospitalisation, she was also found to have oropharyngeal candidiasis, methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) skin lesions. Based on the number of infections and severity of her rash, an immunocompromised state was suspected. Immunological testing revealed a B cell and T cell deficiency as well as low serum immunoglobulins. This combination of hypogammaglobulinaemia and thymoma led to a diagnosis of GS. While there have been many case reports of GS, this is the first report of the immunodeficiency presenting with erythema multiforme.

Differential risk of disease progression between isolated anastomotic ulcers and mild ileal recurrence after ileocolonic resection in patients with Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is standard of care to perform ileocolonoscopy within a year of ileocolonic resection for Crohn's disease (CD) and to guide management decisions based on the Rutgeert score (RS). The modified RS subdivides i2 into lesions confined to the anastomosis (i2a) or >5 aphthous lesions in the neoterminal ileum (i2b). There is uncertainty, however, if i2a lesions incur an increased risk of disease recurrence. The primary aim of this study was to compare the rates of endoscopic progression between i2a and i2b when compared with i0-i1. METHODS: This was a retrospective, single-center study including patients with CD who had an ileocolonoscopy ≤12 months after ileocolonic resection with primary anastomosis and who had >1 year of documented clinical follow-up after the index endoscopic evaluation. All consecutive eligible patients between 2004 and 2014 were included in the study. Demographic, disease, and treatment data were collected. Patients with i3 or i4 at index colonoscopy were excluded from further analyses. Outcomes included endoscopic progression and recurrent surgery. For patients with RS of i0 to i2, endoscopic progression was predefined as progression of the RS in subsequent colonoscopies to i3 or i4. Recurrent surgical interventions were defined as re-resection or stricturoplasty of the previous ileocolonic anastomosis. RESULTS: Two hundred seven CD patients (median age, 36 years [interquartile range, 26-48]) had an ileocolonoscopy ≤12 months after ileocolonic resection. At index colonoscopy, 95 patients (45.9%) had an RS of i0, 31 (14.9%) i1, 40 (19.3%) i2a, 25 (12.1%) i2b, 10 (4.8%) i3, and 6 (2.9%) i4. One hundred ninety-one patients had an RS of i0 to i2 and were included in the analyses for recurrent surgery. One hundred forty-nine patients had a second endoscopic evaluation and were included in the analysis for the primary outcome of endoscopic disease progression. Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed and found the hazard ratio (HR) of endoscopic progression to be significantly higher with i2b lesions when compared with i0 or i1 (HR, 6.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.38-16.2; P = .0008). Patients with i2a did not have significantly higher rates of endoscopic progression when compared with i0 or i1 (HR, 2.30; 95% CI, .80-6.66; P = .12). Likewise, patients with i2b lesions had higher risk of needing recurrent surgery when compared with i0 or i1 (HR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.10-12.1; P = .034), whereas patients with i2a lesions were not found to have a significantly elevated risk of recurrent surgery (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, .35-5.77; P = .62). CONCLUSION: Endoscopic lesions limited to the ileocolonic anastomosis (RS i2a) in patients with CD undergoing colonoscopy within 1 year of their resection were not associated with a significantly higher rate of progression to more severe disease, whereas those in the neoileum (RS i2b) were. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Low-Dose Metronidazole is Associated With a Decreased Rate of Endoscopic Recurrence of Crohn's Disease After Ileal Resection: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recurrence of Crohn's disease after surgical resection and primary anastomosis is an important clinical challenge. Previous studies have demonstrated the benefit of imidazole antibiotics, but have been limited by adverse events and medication intolerance. We evaluated whether administration of low-dose metronidazole [250 mg three times per day] for 3 months reduces endoscopic postoperative recurrence rates. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with Crohn's disease who underwent ileal resection with a primary anastomosis and subsequently received care at our center. We compared the cases who received low-dose metronidazole for 3 months with control patients who did not receive this therapy. Data collected included demographics, risk factors for recurrence, and medications before and after surgery. The primary end point was the number of patients with ≥i2 [Rutgeerts] endoscopic recurrence by 12 months. Variables found to be predictive in univariate analysis at p < 0.10 were introduced in the Cox model for multivariate analysis. RESULTS: In all, 70 patients with Crohn's disease [35 cases and 35 controls] met inclusion criteria. Risk factors for Crohn's recurrence were similar between groups. The number of patients with ≥i2 endoscopic recurrence within 12 months following ileal resection was significantly lower in the metronidazole group [7 of 35 patients; 20%] compared with the number in the control group [19 of 35 patients; 54.3%] [p = 0.0058]. Eight participants [22.9%] in the metronidazole group experienced adverse events, and 3 of these patients [8.6%] discontinued the therapy. CONCLUSION: Low-dose metronidazole reduces endoscopic recurrence of Crohn's disease postoperatively and is well tolerated. This intervention should be considered as a therapy option following ileocolonic resection.