State-space models reveal a continuing elephant poaching problem in most of Africa.

The most comprehensive data on poaching of African elephants comes from the Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) program, which reports numbers of illegally killed carcasses encountered by rangers. Recent studies utilizing MIKE data have reported that poaching of African elephants peaked in 2011 and has been decreasing through 2018. Closer examination of these studies, however, raises questions about the conclusion that poaching is decreasing throughout the continent. To provide more accurate information on trends in elephant poaching, we analyzed MIKE data using state-space models. State-space models account for missing data and the error inherent when sampling carcasses. Using the state-space model, for 2011-2018, we found no significant temporal trends in rates of illegal killing for Southern, Central and Western Africa. Only in Eastern Africa have poaching rates decreased substantially since 2011. For Africa as a whole, poaching did decline for 2011-2018, but the decline was entirely due to Eastern African sites. Our results suggest that poaching for ivory has not diminished across most of Africa since 2011. Continued vigilance and anti-poaching efforts will be necessary to combat poaching and to conserve African elephants.

Conservation: Monitoring Elephant Poaching to Prevent a Population Crash.

African elephants are under threat, especially from poaching for illegal ivory trade. New monitoring data show a dramatic increase in elephant poaching in northern Botswana, where the largest remaining population of African elephants resides.

Radiocarbon dating of seized ivory confirms rapid decline in African elephant populations and provides insight into illegal trade.

Carbon-14 measurements on 231 elephant ivory specimens from 14 large ivory seizures (≥0.5 ton) made between 2002 and 2014 show that most ivory (ca 90%) was derived from animals that had died less than 3 y before ivory was confiscated. This indicates that the assumption of recent elephant death for mortality estimates of African elephants is correct: Very little "old" ivory is included in large ivory shipments from Africa. We found only one specimen of the 231 analyzed to have a lag time longer than 6 y. Patterns of trade differ by regions: East African ivory, based on genetic assignments of geographic origin, has a much higher fraction of "rapid" transit than ivory originating in the Tridom region of Cameroon-Gabon-Congo. Carbon-14 is an important tool in understanding patterns of movement of illegal wildlife products.

Non-invasive measurement of thyroid hormone in feces of a diverse array of avian and mammalian species.

We developed and validated a non-invasive thyroid hormone measure in feces of a diverse array of birds and mammals. An I(131) radiolabel ingestion study in domestic dogs coupled with High Pressure Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) analysis, showed that peak excretion in feces occurred at 24-48h post-ingestion, with I(131)-labelled thyroid hormone metabolites excreted primarily as triiodothyronine (T3) and relatively little thyroxine (T4), at all excretion times examined. The immunoreactive T3 profile across these same HPLC fractions closely corresponded with the I(131) radioactive profile. By contrast, the T4 immunoreactive profile was disproportionately high, suggesting that T4 excretion included a high percentage of T4 stores. We optimized and validated T3 and T4 extraction and assay methods in feces of wild northern spotted owls, African elephants, howler monkeys, caribou, moose, wolf, maned wolf, killer whales and Steller sea lions. We explained 99% of the variance in high and low T3 concentrations derived from species-specific sample pools, after controlling for species and the various extraction methods tested. Fecal T3 reflected nutritional deficits in two male and three female howler monkeys held in captivity for translocation from a highly degraded habitat. Results suggest that thyroid hormone can be accurately and reliably measured in feces, providing important indices for environmental physiology across a diverse array of birds and mammals.

Genetic relatedness and disrupted social structure in a poached population of African elephants.

We use genetic measures of relatedness and observations of female bonding to examine the demographic signature of historically heavy poaching of a population of free-ranging African elephants. We collected dung samples to obtain DNA and observed behaviour from 102 elephant families over a 25-month period in 2003-2005 in Mikumi National Park, Tanzania. Poaching reduced the population by 75% in the decade prior to the 1989 ivory trade ban; park records indicate that poaching dropped significantly in Mikumi following the ban. Using 10 microsatellite loci, DNA was genotyped in 203 elephants and pair-wise relatedness was calculated among adult females within and between groups. The Mikumi population is characterized by small group size, considerable variation in group relatedness, females with no first-order adult relatives and females that form only weak social bonds. We used gene-drop analysis and a model of a genetically intact pedigree to compare our observed Mikumi group relatedness to a simulated genetically intact unpoached expectation. The majority of groups in Mikumi contain 2 to 3 adults; of these, 45% were classified as genetically disrupted. Bonding, quantified with a pair-wise association index, was significantly correlated with relatedness; however only half of the females formed strong bonds with other females, and relatedness was substantially lower for a given bond strength as compared to an unpoached population. Female African elephants without kin demonstrated considerable behavioural plasticity in this disturbed environment, grouping with other females lacking kin, with established groups, or remaining alone, unable to form any stable adult female-bonds. We interpret these findings as the remaining effect of poaching disturbance in Mikumi, despite a drop in the level of poaching since the commercial trade in ivory was banned 15 years ago.