Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean.

The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.

La resposta al canvi climàtic en espècies amb dimorfisme sexual pot veure's dificultada per les diferències entre sexes respecte a les seves preferències d'ús de l'hàbitat i els seus patrons de moviment. L'os marí antàrtic (Arctocephalus gazella), és el pinnípede més abundant a l'Hemisferi Sud i un dels principals consumidors de krill antàrtic, (Euphausia superba), a l'Oceà Antàrtic. No obstant això, les poblacions que es reprodueixen al sector Atlàntic de l'Oceà Antàrtic estan disminuint, en part a causa de l'escalfament global. Els mascles i les femelles de l'os marí antàrtic difereixen considerablement en la seva mida corporal i ecologia tròfica, i es té poc coneixement sobre les seves respostes específiques al canvi climàtic. En aquest estudi hem utilitzat dades de seguiment per satèl·lit i models del Sistema Terrestre per predir els canvis en la idoneïtat de l'hàbitat per als mascles i les femelles d'os marí antàrtic de la Península Antàrtica Occidental sota diferents escenaris de canvi climàtic. Sota l'escenari més extrem (SSP5-8.5; temperatura mitjana mundial +4.4°C prevista per a 2100), les zones d'hàbitat idoni es desplaçaran cap al sud durant l'època d'hivernada (no reproducció), provocant una lleugera pèrdua d'hàbitat idoni. Tot i això, l'impacte serà més pronunciat per a les femelles que per als mascles. Aquesta reducció dels territoris d'alimentació durant l'hivern podria disminuir la supervivència de les femelles postdeslletades, reduint-ne el reclutament i posant en perill la viabilitat de la població. Durant l'època de cria, quan els mascles es troben majoritàriament en dejú a terra, els territoris d'alimentació idonis per a les femelles al voltant de les Illes Shetland del Sud romandran en gran part sense modificar-se, i n'emergiran de nous al mar de Bellingshausen. Com que les femelles d'os marí antàrtic es continuen alimentant durant la cria, els territoris d'alimentació de les femelles han d'estar raonablement a prop de la colònia de cria. Com a resultat, aquestes noves zones d'alimentació seran útils només si les platges properes, actualment cobertes de gel marí, emergeixen al llarg del segle. A més, la colonització d'aquests nous llocs de reproducció lliures de gel podria veure's limitada per la forta filopatria de les femelles. Aquests resultats haurien de tenir-se en compte en la gestió de les pesqueries de krill a l'Oceà Antàrtic.

Diverse papillomaviruses identified from Antarctic fur seals, leopard seals and Weddell seals from the Antarctic.

Papillomaviruses (family Papillomaviridae) are non-enveloped, circular, double-stranded DNA viruses known to infect squamous and mucosal epithelial cells. In the family Papillomaviridae there are 53 genera and 133 viral species whose members infect a variety of mammalian, avian, reptilian, and fish species. Within the Antarctic context, papillomaviruses (PVs) have been identified in Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae, 2 PVs), Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii, 7 PVs), and emerald notothen (Trematomus bernacchii, 1 PV) in McMurdo Sound and Ross Island in eastern Antarctica. Here we identified 13 diverse PVs from buccal swabs of Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella, 2 PVs) and leopard seal (Hydrurga leptonyx, 3 PVs) in western Antarctica (Antarctic Peninsula), and vaginal and nasal swabs of Weddell seals (8 PVs) in McMurdo Sound. These PV genomes group into four genera representing 11 new papillomavirus types, of which five are from two Antarctic fur seals and a leopard seal and six from Weddell seals.

Genetic diversity and demographic history of the leopard seal: A Southern Ocean top predator.

Leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) are top predators that can exert substantial top-down control of their Antarctic prey species. However, population trends and genetic diversity of leopard seals remain understudied, limiting our understanding of their ecological role. We investigated the genetic diversity, effective population size and demographic history of leopard seals to provide fundamental data that contextualizes their predatory influence on Antarctic ecosystems. Ninety leopard seals were sampled from the northern Antarctic Peninsula during the austral summers of 2008-2019 and a 405bp segment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced for each individual. We uncovered moderate levels of nucleotide (π = 0.013) and haplotype (Hd = 0.96) diversity, and the effective population size was estimated at around 24,000 individuals (NE = 24,376; 95% CI: 16,876-33,126). Consistent with findings from other ice-breeding pinnipeds, Bayesian skyline analysis also revealed evidence for population expansion during the last glacial maximum, suggesting that historical population growth may have been boosted by an increase in the abundance of sea ice. Although leopard seals can be found in warmer, sub-Antarctic locations, the species' core habitat is centered on the Antarctic, making it inherently vulnerable to the loss of sea ice habitat due to climate change. Therefore, detailed assessments of past and present leopard seal population trends are needed to inform policies for Antarctic ecosystems.

Whiskers provide time-series of toxic and essential trace elements, Se:Hg molar ratios, and stable isotope values of an apex Antarctic predator, the leopard seal.

In an era of rapid environmental change and increasing human presence, researchers need efficient tools for tracking contaminants to monitor the health of Antarctic flora and fauna. Here, we examined the utility of leopard seal whiskers as a biomonitoring tool that reconstructs time-series of significant ecological and physiological biomarkers. Leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) are a sentinel species in the Western Antarctic Peninsula due to their apex predator status and top-down effects on several Antarctic species. However, there are few data on their contaminant loads. We analyzed leopard seal whiskers (n = 18 individuals, n = 981 segments) collected during 2018-2019 field seasons to acquire longitudinal profiles of non-essential (Hg, Pb, and Cd) and essential (Se, Cu, and Zn) trace elements, stable isotope (ẟ15N and ẟ13C) values and to assess Hg risk with Se:Hg molar ratios. Whiskers provided between 46 and 286 cumulative days of growth with a mean ~ 125 days per whisker (n = 18). Adult whiskers showed variability in non-essential trace elements over time that could partly be explained by changes in diet. Whisker Hg levels were insufficient (<20 ppm) to consider most seals being at "high" risk for Hg toxicity. Nevertheless, maximum Hg concentrations observed in this study were greater than that of leopard seal hair measured two decades ago. However, variation in the Se:Hg molar ratios over time suggest that Se may detoxify Hg burden in leopard seals. Overall, we provide evidence that the analysis of leopard seal whiskers allows for the reconstruction of time-series ecological and physiological data and can be valuable for opportunistically monitoring the health of the leopard seal population and their Antarctic ecosystem during climate change.

Hi-C scaffolded short- and long-read genome assemblies of the California sea lion are broadly consistent for syntenic inference across 45 million years of evolution.

With the advent of chromatin-interaction maps, chromosome-level genome assemblies have become a reality for a wide range of organisms. Scaffolding quality is, however, difficult to judge. To explore this gap, we generated multiple chromosome-scale genome assemblies of an emerging wild animal model for carcinogenesis, the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus). Short-read assemblies were scaffolded with two independent chromatin interaction mapping data sets (Hi-C and Chicago), and long-read assemblies with three data types (Hi-C, optical maps and 10X linked reads) following the "Vertebrate Genomes Project (VGP)" pipeline. In both approaches, 18 major scaffolds recovered the karyotype (2n = 36), with scaffold N50s of 138 and 147 Mb, respectively. Synteny relationships at the chromosome level with other pinniped genomes (2n = 32-36), ferret (2n = 34), red panda (2n = 36) and domestic dog (2n = 78) were consistent across approaches and recovered known fissions and fusions. Comparative chromosome painting and multicolour chromosome tiling with a panel of 264 genome-integrated single-locus canine bacterial artificial chromosome probes provided independent evaluation of genome organization. Broad-scale discrepancies between the approaches were observed within chromosomes, most commonly in translocations centred around centromeres and telomeres, which were better resolved in the VGP assembly. Genomic and cytological approaches agreed on near-perfect synteny of the X chromosome, and in combination allowed detailed investigation of autosomal rearrangements between dog and sea lion. This study presents high-quality genomes of an emerging cancer model and highlights that even highly fragmented short-read assemblies scaffolded with Hi-C can yield reliable chromosome-level scaffolds suitable for comparative genomic analyses.

Leopard seal diets in a rapidly warming polar region vary by year, season, sex, and body size.

BACKGROUND: Resolving the preferred prey items and dietary proportions of leopard seals is central to understanding food-web dynamics in the rapidly-warming Antarctic Peninsula region. Previous studies have identified a wide range of prey items; however, due to anecdotal or otherwise limited information, leopard seal diets remain unresolved by seal sex, individual, body size, region, and season. Over the 2013, 2014, and 2017 field seasons we collected scat, tissue samples (red blood cells and plasma; n = 23) for stable isotope analyses, and previously-reported animal-borne video from 19 adult leopard seals foraging near mesopredator breeding colonies at Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island. We summarized a priori diet information from scat and video analysis and applied a three-isotope (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S), four-source (fish, fur seal, krill, penguin) Bayesian mixing model to examine temporal variability in both prey sources and leopard seal tissues. RESULTS: The austral spring diets of males and females focused on Antarctic krill (31.7-38.0%), notothen fish (31.6-36.5%), and penguin (24.4-26.9%) and were consistent across all 3 years. Several lines of evidence suggest the transition to summer foraging was distinct for males and females. Female diets transitioned rapidly to higher δ15N values (+2.1‰), indicating increased consumption of penguin (29.5-46.2%) and energy-dense Antarctic fur seal pup (21.3-37.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The seasonal increase in leopard seal δ15N values, and thus fur seal in their diet, was predictably related to larger body size; it may also be forcing reductions to the largest Antarctic fur seal colony in the Antarctic Peninsula. Our ensemble sampling approach reduces historical biases in monitoring marine apex predator diets. Further, our results are necessary to best inform regional fisheries management planning.

Publisher Correction: The genetic legacy of extreme exploitation in a polar vertebrate.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

The genetic legacy of extreme exploitation in a polar vertebrate.

Understanding the effects of human exploitation on the genetic composition of wild populations is important for predicting species persistence and adaptive potential. We therefore investigated the genetic legacy of large-scale commercial harvesting by reconstructing, on a global scale, the recent demographic history of the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella), a species that was hunted to the brink of extinction by 18th and 19th century sealers. Molecular genetic data from over 2,000 individuals sampled from all eight major breeding locations across the species' circumpolar geographic distribution, show that at least four relict populations around Antarctica survived commercial hunting. Coalescent simulations suggest that all of these populations experienced severe bottlenecks down to effective population sizes of around 150-200. Nevertheless, comparably high levels of neutral genetic variability were retained as these declines are unlikely to have been strong enough to deplete allelic richness by more than around 15%. These findings suggest that even dramatic short-term declines need not necessarily result in major losses of diversity, and explain the apparent contradiction between the high genetic diversity of this species and its extreme exploitation history.

Factors affecting energy expenditure in a declining fur seal population.

Quantifying metabolic rates and the factors that influence them is key to wildlife conservation efforts because anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration can disrupt energy balance, which is critical for reproduction and survival. We investigated the effect of diving behaviour, diet and season on field metabolic rates (FMR) and foraging success of lactating northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) from the Pribilof Islands during a period of population decline. Variation in at-sea FMR was in part explained by season and trip duration, with values that ranged from 5.18 to 9.68 W kg-1 (n = 48). Fur seals experienced a 7.2% increase in at-sea FMR from summer to fall and a 1.9% decrease in at-sea FMR for each additional day spent at sea. There was no effect of foraging effort, dive depth or diet on at-sea FMR. Mass gains increased with trip duration and were greater in the fall compared with summer, but were unrelated to at-sea FMR, diving behaviour and diet. Seasonal increases in at-sea FMR may have been due to costs associated with the annual molt but did not appear to adversely impact the ability of females to gain mass on foraging trips. The overall high metabolic rates in conjunction with the lack of any diet-related effects on at-sea FMR suggests that northern fur seals may have reached a metabolic ceiling early in the population decline. This provides indirect evidence that food limitation may be contributing to the low pup growth rates observed in the Pribilof Islands, as a high metabolic overhead likely results in less available energy for lactation. The limited ability of female fur seals to cope with changes in prey availability through physiological mechanisms is particularly concerning given the recent and unprecedented environmental changes in the Bering Sea that are predicted to have ecosystem-level impacts.

Time Trends of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers (PBDEs) in Antarctic Biota.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are "emerged" contaminants that were produced and used as flame retardants in numerous consumer and industrial applications for decades until banned. They remain ubiquitously present in the environment today. Here, a unique set of >200 biotic samples from the Antarctic was analyzed for PBDEs, including phytoplankton, krill, fish, and fur seal milk, spanning several sampling seasons over 14 years. PBDE-47 and -99 were the dominant congeners determined in all samples, constituting >60% of total PBDEs. A temporal trend was observed for ∑7PBDE concentrations in fur seal milk, where concentrations significantly increased (R2 = 0.57, p < 0.05) over time (2000-2014). Results for krill and phytoplankton also suggested increasing PBDE concentrations over time. Trends of PBDEs in fur seal milk of individual seals sampled 1 or more years apart showed no clear temporal trends. Overall, there was no indication of PBDEs decreasing in Antarctic biota yet, whereas numerous studies have reported decreasing trends in the northern hemisphere. Similar PBDE concentrations in perinatal versus nonperinatal milk implied the importance of local PBDE sources for bioaccumulation. These results indicate the need for continued assessment of contaminant trends, such as PBDEs, and their replacements, in Antarctica.

Novel anelloviruses identified in buccal swabs of Antarctic fur seals.

Viral diversity associated with Antarctic wildlife remains poorly studied. Nonetheless, over the past 5 years, there has been a concerted effort using viral metagenomics approaches to identify and characterize viruses associated with Antarctic pinniped and avian species. Here we used a viral metagenomics approach to identify circular DNA viruses in buccal swab samples from Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) breeding on Livingston Island, Antarctica during the 2016/2017 field season. We identified two new lineages of anelloviruses, torque teno Arctocephalus gazella virus (TTAgV)-1 (2083 nts) and -2 (2127-2143 nts), which are most closely related to and cluster with a previously identified anellovirus associated with California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) sharing ~ 60% genome-wide pairwise identity. The ORF1 of TTAgVs share 26-41% amino acid similarity to the ORF1 of other previously identified pinniped-associated anelloviruses.

RAD Sequencing and a Hybrid Antarctic Fur Seal Genome Assembly Reveal Rapidly Decaying Linkage Disequilibrium, Global Population Structure and Evidence for Inbreeding.

Recent advances in high throughput sequencing have transformed the study of wild organisms by facilitating the generation of high quality genome assemblies and dense genetic marker datasets. These resources have the potential to significantly advance our understanding of diverse phenomena at the level of species, populations and individuals, ranging from patterns of synteny through rates of linkage disequilibrium (LD) decay and population structure to individual inbreeding. Consequently, we used PacBio sequencing to refine an existing Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) genome assembly and genotyped 83 individuals from six populations using restriction site associated DNA (RAD) sequencing. The resulting hybrid genome comprised 6,169 scaffolds with an N50 of 6.21 Mb and provided clear evidence for the conservation of large chromosomal segments between the fur seal and dog (Canis lupus familiaris). Focusing on the most extensively sampled population of South Georgia, we found that LD decayed rapidly, reaching the background level by around 400 kb, consistent with other vertebrates but at odds with the notion that fur seals experienced a strong historical bottleneck. We also found evidence for population structuring, with four main Antarctic island groups being resolved. Finally, appreciable variance in individual inbreeding could be detected, reflecting the strong polygyny and site fidelity of the species. Overall, our study contributes important resources for future genomic studies of fur seals and other pinnipeds while also providing a clear example of how high throughput sequencing can generate diverse biological insights at multiple levels of organization.

An accurate and adaptable photogrammetric approach for estimating the mass and body condition of pinnipeds using an unmanned aerial system.

Measurements of body size and mass are fundamental to pinniped population management and research. Manual measurements tend to be accurate but are invasive and logistically challenging to obtain. Ground-based photogrammetric techniques are less invasive, but inherent limitations make them impractical for many field applications. The recent proliferation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in wildlife monitoring has provided a promising new platform for the photogrammetry of free-ranging pinnipeds. Leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) are an apex predator in coastal Antarctica whose body condition could be a valuable indicator of ecosystem health. We aerially surveyed leopard seals of known body size and mass to test the precision and accuracy of photogrammetry from a small UAS. Flights were conducted in January and February of 2013 and 2014 and 50 photogrammetric samples were obtained from 15 unrestrained seals. UAS-derived measurements of standard length were accurate to within 2.01 ± 1.06%, and paired comparisons with ground measurements were statistically indistinguishable. An allometric linear mixed effects model predicted leopard seal mass within 19.40 kg (4.4% error for a 440 kg seal). Photogrammetric measurements from a single, vertical image obtained using UAS provide a noninvasive approach for estimating the mass and body condition of pinnipeds that may be widely applicable.

Identifying Risk: Concurrent Overlap of the Antarctic Krill Fishery with Krill-Dependent Predators in the Scotia Sea.

Mitigating direct and indirect interactions between marine predators and fisheries is a motivating factor for ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), especially where predators and fisheries compete for a shared resource. One difficulty in advancing EBFM is parameterizing clear functional responses of predators to indices of prey availability. Alternative characterizations of fishery-predator interactions may therefore benefit the implementation of EBFM. Telemetry data identify foraging areas used by predators and, therefore, represent critical information to mitigate potential competition between predators and fisheries. We analyzed six years (2009-2014) of telemetry data collected at Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island and Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica, on three species of Pygoscelid penguins and female Antarctic fur seals. In this region, all four species are primarily dependent on Antarctic krill. The tracking data demonstrate local movements near breeding colonies during the austral summer and dispersal from breeding colonies during the winter. We then assessed overlap between predators and the Antarctic krill fishery on a suite of spatiotemporal scales to examine how different data aggregations affect the extent and location of overlap. Concurrent overlap was observed on all spatiotemporal scales considered throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and South Orkney Islands region, including near tagging locations and in distant areas where recent fishing activity has concentrated. Overlap occurred at depths where mean krill densities were relatively high. Our results demonstrate that direct overlap of krill-dependent predators with the krill fishery on small spatiotemporal scales is relatively common throughout the Antarctic Peninsula region. As the krill fishery continues to develop and efforts to implement ecosystem-based management mature, indices of overlap may provide a useful metric for indicating where the risks of fishing are highest. A precautionary approach to allocating krill catches in space would be to avoid large increases in catch where overlap on small spatiotemporal scales is common.

Unexpected genetic differentiation between recently recolonized populations of a long-lived and highly vagile marine mammal.

Many species have been heavily exploited by man leading to local extirpations, yet few studies have attempted to unravel subsequent recolonization histories. This has led to a significant gap in our knowledge of the long-term effects of exploitation on the amount and structure of contemporary genetic variation, with important implications for conservation. The Antarctic fur seal provides an interesting case in point, having been virtually exterminated in the nineteenth century but subsequently staged a dramatic recovery to recolonize much of its original range. Consequently, we evaluated the hypothesis that South Georgia (SG), where a few million seals currently breed, was the main source of immigrants to other locations including Livingston Island (LI), by genotyping 366 individuals from these two populations at 17 microsatellite loci and sequencing a 263 bp fragment of the mitochondrial hypervariable region 1. Contrary to expectations, we found highly significant genetic differences at both types of marker, with 51% of LI individuals carrying haplotypes that were not observed in 246 animals from SG. Moreover, the youngest of three sequentially founded colonies at LI showed greater similarity to SG at mitochondrial DNA than microsatellites, implying temporal and sex-specific variation in recolonization. Our findings emphasize the importance of relict populations and provide insights into the mechanisms by which severely depleted populations can recover while maintaining surprisingly high levels of genetic diversity.

Inter-annual variation of persistent organic pollutants (POPS) in an Antarctic top predator Arctocephalus gazella.

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs), contaminants that may bioaccumulate in upper trophic level organisms, were detected in the milk of a top predator, the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella). Multiparous females had significantly lower concentrations of certain POPs (trans-nonachlor, p,p'-DDE, and several PCBs) in their milk than primiparous females, likely due to the annual lactational transfer of the POP burden from mother to pup. Furthermore, there were significant interannual differences in POP concentrations in multiparous females' milk from five breeding seasons between 2000 and 2011. Decreasing trends in concentrations of certain POPs over the recent decade coincide with declining global emissions, yet atmospheric concentrations in the Antarctic are not always consistent with global trends, suggesting that additional factors may contribute to temporal trends of POPs in fur seals. Climate shifts and corresponding availability of krill over the past decade were not consistent with trends observed in POP concentrations in fur seal milk, suggesting that climate may not be a key factor. Additional mechanisms, such as variability in the geographic ranges of individual seals during overwintering migrations are discussed and should be explored further.

Characterization of blubber fatty acid signatures in northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) over the postweaning fast.

Phocids routinely fast for extended periods. During these fasts, energetic requirements are met primarily through the catabolism of blubber lipid. To assess whether fatty acid (FA) composition changes during the postweaning fast in northern elephant seals, blubber biopsies were acquired longitudinally from 43 pups at 2.3 ± 1.5 and 55.2 ± 3.7 days postweaning in 1999 and 2000. At weaning, short-chain monounsaturated FA (SC-MUFA, ≤18 carbons) dominated the blubber while saturated FA (SFA) were found in the next highest proportion. The major FA (all ≥1 % by mass) comprised approximately 91 % of total blubber FA. In both years, 18:1n-9 and 16:0 were the most prevalent FA. Major FA mobilized during the fast consisted of polyunsaturated FA (PUFA), SFA, and SC-MUFA. Long-chain MUFA (>18 carbons) tended to be conserved. The fractional mobilization value of 20:5n-3 was the highest, resulting in significant reductions of this PUFA. Although concentrations of some blubber FA changed significantly during the postweaning fast, the general FA signature of blubber was similar at weaning and near the end of the fast. Changes in some FA differed across years. For example, the concentration of 20:4n-6, a minor PUFA, was significantly reduced in 1999 but not in 2000. FA mobilization patterns in northern elephant seal pups are somewhat similar to those reported previously for other fasting phocids and terrestrial mammals, though there are some notable differences. Differences in FA mobilization patterns across mammalian species may be related to differences in diets, geographical distribution, environmental factors, physiological adaptations, and life history stage.

Top-down and bottom-up influences on demographic rates of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella.

Two major drivers in population dynamics are bottom-up processes, such as environmental factors that affect foraging success, and the top-down impacts of predation. Many populations of marine mammal and seabird species appear to be declining in response to reductions in prey associated with the bottom-up effects of climate change. However, predation, which usually occurs at sea and is difficult to observe, may also play a key role. We analysed drivers of population dynamics of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella at Cape Shirreff from 1997 to 2009, including a predator that targets pre-weaned pups and bottom-up environmental effects in an ecosystem particularly sensitive to small changes in temperature. We use Bayesian mark-recapture analysis to demonstrate that although large-scale environmental variability affects annual adult survival and reproduction, first year survival appears to be driving the current decline in this population (as defined by a decline in the annual number of pups born). Although the number of pups increased during the first third of the study, first year survival and recruitment of those pups in later years was very low. Such low survival may be driven by leopard seal Hydrurga leptonyx predation, particularly prior to weaning. Our results suggest that without leopard seal predation, this population would most likely increase in size, despite the observed bottom-up effects of climate changes on adult vital rates. More broadly, our results show how age-targeted predation could be a major factor in population decline of K-selected colonial breeders.

Dynamic influence of maternal and pup traits on maternal care during lactation in an income breeder, the antarctic fur seal.

Life-history theory predicts that selection will favor optimal levels of parental effort that balance benefits of current reproduction with costs to survival and future reproduction. The optimal level of effort depends on parental traits, offspring traits, and provisioning strategy. Additionally, how these factors influence effort may differ depending on the stage of reproduction. The relative importance of maternal and offspring traits on energy allocation to offspring was investigated in known-age Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella across four stages of reproduction, using birth mass and milk-consumption measurements. Maternal traits were important during three of the four stages investigated, with larger females giving birth to larger pups and investing more in pups during perinatal and molt stages. Pup mass influenced maternal effort during the premolt stage, and provisioning strategy influenced postnatal maternal effort at all stages. Energy provided to the offspring during an attendance visit was positively related to the duration of the foraging-trip/visit cycle; however, when investment was controlled for trip/visit cycle duration, the overall rate of energy transfer was similar across trip durations. In addition to strong effects of maternal mass, pup traits affected energy allocation, suggesting that pup demand is important in determining maternal care. These findings emphasize the importance of considering state variables in life-history studies and suggest that timing of measurements of effort in species with long provisioning periods may influence conclusions and our ability to make comparisons of reproductive effort among species.