PO-07 - Excluding pulmonary embolism in cancer patients using the Wells rule and age-adjusted D-dimer testing: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Among patients with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism (PE), imaging and anticoagulant treatment can be safely withheld in approximately one-third of patients based on the combination of a "PE unlikely" Wells score and a D-dimer below the age-adjusted threshold. The clinical utility of this diagnostic approach in cancer patients is less clear. AIM: To evaluate the efficiency and failure rate of the original and simplified Wells rules in combination with age-adjusted D-dimer testing in patients with active cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were used from 6 large prospective studies in which the diagnostic management of PE was guided by the original Wells rule and D-dimer testing. Study physicians classified patients as having active cancer if they had new, recurrent, or progressive cancer (excluding basal-cell or squamous-cell skin carcinoma), or cancer requiring treatment in the last 6 months. We evaluated the dichotomous Wells rule and its simplified version (Table). The efficiency of the algorithm was defined as the proportion of patients with a "PE unlikely" Wells score and a negative age-adjusted D-dimer, defined by a D-dimer below the threshold of a patient's age times 10 µg/L in patients aged ≥51 years. A diagnostic failure was defined as a patient with a "PE unlikely" Wells score and negative age-adjusted D-dimer who had symptomatic venous thromboembolism during 3 months follow-up. A one-stage random effects meta-analysis was performed to estimate the efficiency and failure. RESULTS: The dataset comprised 938 patients with active cancer with a mean age of 63 years. The most frequent cancer types were breast (13%), gastrointestinal tract (11%), and lung (8%). The type of cancer was not specified in 42%. The pooled PE prevalence was 29% (95% CI 25-32). PE could be excluded in 122 patients based on a "PE unlikely" Wells score and a negative age-adjusted D-dimer (efficiency 13%; 95% CI 11-15). Two of 122 patients were diagnosed with non-fatal symptomatic venous thromboembolism during follow-up (failure rate 1.5%; 95% CI 0.13-14.8). The simplified Wells score in combination with a negative age-adjusted D-dimer had an efficiency of 3.9% (95% CI 2.0-7.6) and a failure rate of 2.4% (95% CI 0.3-15). CONCLUSIONS: Among cancer patients with clinically suspected PE, imaging and anticoagulant treatment can be withheld in 1 out of every 8 patients by the original Wells rule and age-adjusted D-dimer testing. The simplified Wells rule was neither efficient nor safe in this population.

Four-month metacarpal bone mineral density loss predicts radiological joint damage progression after 1†year in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: exploratory analyses from the IMPROVED study.

AIM: To assess whether in early (rheumatoid) arthritis (RA) patients, metacarpal bone mineral density (BMD) loss after 4 months predicts radiological progression after 1 year of antirheumatic treatment. METHODS: Metacarpal BMD was measured 4 monthly during the first year by digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR-BMD) in patients participating in the IMPROVED study, a clinical trial in 610 patients with recent onset RA (2010 criteria) or undifferentiated arthritis, treated according to a remission (disease activity score<1.6) steered strategy. With Sharp/van der Heijde progression ≥0.5 points after 1 year (yes/no) as dependent variable, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Of 428 patients with DXR-BMD results and progression scores available, 28 (7%) had radiological progression after 1 year. Independent predictors for radiological progression were presence of baseline erosions (OR (95% CI) 6.5 (1.7 to 25)) and early DXR-BMD loss (OR (95% CI) 1.5 (1.1 to 2.0)). In 366 (86%) patients without baseline erosions, early DXR-BMD loss was the only independent predictor of progression (OR (95% CI) 2.0 (1.4 to 2.9)). CONCLUSIONS: In early RA patients, metacarpal BMD loss after 4 months of treatment is an independent predictor of radiological progression after 1 year. In patients without baseline erosions, early metacarpal BMD loss is the main predictor of radiological progression.

A two-step treatment strategy trial in patients with early arthritis aimed at achieving remission: the IMPROVED study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess which treatment strategy is most effective in inducing remission in early (rheumatoid) arthritis. METHODS: 610 patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA 2010 criteria) or undifferentiated arthritis (UA) started treatment with methotrexate (MTX) and a tapered high dose of prednisone. Patients in early remission (Disease Activity Score <1.6 after 4 months) tapered prednisone to zero and those with persistent remission after 8 months, tapered and stopped MTX. Patients not in early remission were randomised to receive either MTX plus hydroxychloroquine plus sulfasalazine plus low-dose prednisone (arm 1) or to MTX plus adalimumab (ADA) (arm 2). If remission was present after 8 months both arms tapered to MTX monotherapy; if not, arm 1 changed to MTX plus ADA and arm 2 increased the dose of ADA. Remission rates and functional and radiological outcomes were compared between arms and between patients with RA and those with UA. RESULTS: 375/610 (61%) patients achieved early remission. After 1 year 68% of those were in remission and 32% in drug-free remission. Of the randomised patients, 25% in arm 1 and 41% in arm 2 achieved remission at year 1 (p<0.01). Outcomes were comparable between patients with RA and those with UA. CONCLUSIONS: Initial MTX and prednisone resulted in early remission in 61% of patients with early (rheumatoid) arthritis. Of those, 68% were in remission and 32% were in drug-free remission after 1 year. In patients not in early remission, earlier introduction of ADA resulted in more remission at year 1 than first treating with disease-modifying antirheumatic drug combination therapy plus prednisone.

Determinants of absence of osteoarthritis in old age.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors associated with absence of osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: In 82 well-functioning 90-year-old participants from a cross-sectional birth cohort, radiographs of hands, hips, and knees were acquired and scored according to the Kellgren and Lawrence (K-L) method for determining OA. A score of ≥ 2 was considered as OA. 'Free from OA' was defined as no hip or knee OA and less than three hand joints with OA. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations with absence of OA. RESULTS: Absence of hip, knee, and hand OA was seen in 63, 51, and 29% of participants, respectively. Joints on the left and right side of the body were equally affected. Sixteen per cent of 90-year old participants were 'free from OA'. Absence of knee OA was associated with being male. A family history of finger nodes was negatively associated with absence of hip and hand OA. Body mass index (BMI) was negatively associated with 'free from OA', and also with absence of hip and knee OA. A history of heavy occupational work was associated with 'free from OA' [odds ratio (OR) 7.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-39.9] and with absence of hand OA in particular (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.0-7.1). CONCLUSIONS: In 90-year-olds, absence of OA is associated with male sex, a normal BMI, absence of familial predisposition for OA, and, contrary to our expectation, heavy work. Further research in protective genetic factors is needed.

Low innate production of interleukin-1beta and interleukin-6 is associated with the absence of osteoarthritis in old age.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether innate differences in cytokine response were associated with the absence of osteoarthritis (OA) in old age. DESIGN: In 82 participants from a cross-sectional birth cohort, radiographs of hands, hips and knees were taken at the age of 90 years. OA was defined as a Kellgren-Lawrence score of at least two. "Free from OA" was defined at patient level as absence of hip and knee OA, and presence of OA in maximally two hand joints. The innate cytokine response was determined in whole-blood samples upon stimulation with lipopolysaccharide. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations between absence of OA in relation to tertiles of interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, IL-1 receptor antagonist (RA) and IL-10. Adjustments were made for gender and body mass index. RESULTS: Sixteen percent of the participants were "free from OA". Subjects in the lowest tertile of Il-1beta production had a 11-fold increased chance to be free of OA [odds ratio (OR) 11.3, confidence intervals (CI) 95% 1.1-115.9], subjects in the lowest tertile of IL-6 production had an almost 7-fold increased chance to be free of OA (OR 6.7, 95% CI 1.1-41.2). Absence of hand OA was associated with low innate production of IL-6 and IL-1RA, absence of hip OA was associated with low innate IL-1beta production. No associations were found for TNF-alpha and IL-10. CONCLUSIONS: Low innate capacity to produce the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1beta and IL-6 is associated with the absence of OA in old age.

Safety of excluding acute pulmonary embolism based on an unlikely clinical probability by the Wells rule and normal D-dimer concentration: a meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The Wells clinical decision rule (CDR) and D-dimer tests can be used to exclude pulmonary embolism (PE). We performed a meta-analysis to determine the negative predictive value (NPV) of an "unlikely" CDR (

C-reactive protein and D-dimer with clinical probability score in the exclusion of pulmonary embolism.

This study evaluated the diagnostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP) combined with a clinical decision rule in the exclusion of pulmonary embolism (PE) and compared this with D-dimer. In 363 consecutive outpatients CRP and D-dimer test were performed and clinical probability of PE was assessed. Patients with D-dimer levels<500 microg/l and clinical probability indicating 'PE unlikely' were followed for 3 months. Ventilation-perfusion scan or spiral computerized tomography was performed in patients with D-dimer levels>or=500 microg/l or clinical probability indicating 'PE likely'. The CRP had a sensitivity of 95.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 90-100] and negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.4% (96-100). CRP<5 mg/l with clinical probability score indicating 'PE unlikely' (n=108, 30%), had a sensitivity of 96.7% (90-100), a specificity of 43.0% (37-49) and NPV of 99.1% (97-100). D-dimer<500 microg/l with clinical probability score indicating 'PE unlikely' (n=170, 51%), had a sensitivity of 96.7% (90-100), a specificity of 67.9% (62-74) and NPV of 99.4% (98-100). Based on retrospective data it was concluded that a standard CRP test can potentially be used to safely exclude PE, either as a sole test or combined with clinical probability assessment. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.