Effects of trade and poaching pressure on extinction risk for cacti in the Atacama Desert.

In this era of a global biodiversity crisis, vascular plants are facing unprecedented extinction rates. We conducted an assessment of the extinction risk of 32 species and 7 subspecies of Copiapoa, a genus endemic to Chile's fog-dependent coastal Atacama Desert. We applied the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Categories and Criteria enhanced by expert insights and knowledge. Our primary aim was to analyze the impact of trade and poaching on their extinction risk. We employed machine learning models, including multinomial logistic regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), to analyze the relationships between conservation status and various factors. These factors encompassed trade and poaching activities, landscape condition, human footprint, monthly cloud frequency, and biological traits such as evolutionary distinctiveness and maximum diameter. Seven taxa had an area of occupancy (AOO) of <10 km2, 10 additional taxa had an AOO of <20 km2, and 16 taxa had an AOO of ≤100 km2. This reassessment exposed a critical level of extinction risk for the genus; 92% of the taxa were classified as threatened, 41% as critically endangered, 41% as endangered, and 10% as vulnerable. MLR, DT, and RF exhibited accuracies of 0.784, 0.730, and 0.598, respectively, and identified trade and poaching pressure and landscape condition as the primary drivers of extinction risk. Our assessment of Copiapoa showed trade, poaching, habitat degradation, and their synergic impacts as the main drivers of the genus' extinction risk. Our results highlight the urgent need for nations to develop and enforce strategies to monitor and control trade and poaching pressure because these factors are crucial for the long-term persistence of desert plants.

Retos para la regulación del uso comercial de serpientes elápidas marinas en el Indo­Pacífico Resumen En estos tiempos de la crisis mundial de la biodiversidad, las plantas vasculares enfrentan una tasa de extinción sin precedentes. Evaluamos el riesgo de extinción de 32 especies y siete subespecies de Copiapoa, un género endémico al Desierto de Atacama. Aplicamos los Criterios y Categorías de la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza mejoradas con información y conocimiento de expertos. Nuestro principal objetivo era analizar el impacto del mercado y la colecta ilegal sobre el riesgo de extinción de estas plantas. Usamos modelos de aprendizaje automático, incluyendo la regresión logística multinominal, los árboles de decisión y los bosques aleatorios, para analizar las relaciones entre el estado de conservación y diversos factores. Estos factores englobaron las actividades de mercado y colecta ilegal, condiciones del terreno, huella humana, frecuencia mensual de nubes y características biológicas como la singularidad evolutiva y el diámetro máximo. Siete taxones tuvieron un área de ocupación (ADO) <10 km2, diez taxones más tuvieron ADO <20 km2 y 16 taxones tuvieron ADO ≤100 km2. Este análisis expuso el nivel crítico del riesgo de extinción del género Copiapoa: el 92% de los taxones están clasificados como amenazados, 41% como en peligro crítico, 41% como en peligro y 10% como vulnerable. La regresión logística multinominal, los árboles de decisión y los bosques aleatorios exhibieron una certeza del 0.784, 0.730 y 0.598, respectivamente. También identificaron a la presión del mercado y la colecta ilegal y las condiciones del terreno como los principales factores detrás de riesgo de extinción. Nuestro análisis del género Copiapoa mostró que el mercado, la colecta ilegal, la degradación del hábitat y sus impactos sinérgicos como los principales factores detrás del riesgo de extinción del género. Nuestros resultados resaltan la necesidad urgente de que las naciones desarrollen y apliquen estrategias para monitorear y controlar la presión del mercado y la colecta ilegal pues estos son factores cruciales para la persistencia a largo plazo de las plantas de los desiertos.

Incorporating evolutionary and threat processes into crop wild relatives conservation.

Crop wild relatives (CWR) intra- and interspecific diversity is essential for crop breeding and food security. However, intraspecific genetic diversity, which is central given the idiosyncratic threats to species in landscapes, is usually not considered in planning frameworks. Here, we introduce an approach to develop proxies of genetic differentiation to identify conservation areas, applying systematic conservation planning tools that produce hierarchical prioritizations of the landscape. It accounts for: (i) evolutionary processes, including historical and environmental drivers of genetic diversity, and (ii) threat processes, considering taxa-specific tolerance to human-modified habitats, and their extinction risk status. Our analyses can be used as inputs for developing national action plans for the conservation and use of CWR. Our results also inform public policy to mitigate threat processes to CWR (like crops living modified organisms or agriculture subsidies), and could advise future research (e.g. for potential germplasm collecting). Although we focus on Mesoamerican CWR within Mexico, our methodology offers opportunities to effectively guide conservation and monitoring strategies to safeguard the evolutionary resilience of any taxa, including in regions of complex evolutionary histories and mosaic landscapes.