Predicting Long Term Outcome in Patients Treated With Continuous Flow Left Ventricular Assist Device: The Penn-Columbia Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Predicting which patients are unlikely to benefit from continuous flow left ventricular assist device (LVAD) treatment is crucial for the identification of appropriate patients. Previously developed scoring systems are limited to past eras of device or restricted to specific devices. Our objective was to create a risk model for patients treated with continuous flow LVAD based on the preimplant variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective analysis of all patients implanted with a continuous flow LVAD between 2006 and 2014 at the University of Pennsylvania and included a total of 210 patients (male 78%; mean age, 56±15; mean follow-up, 465±486 days). From all plausible preoperative covariates, we performed univariate Cox regression analysis for covariates affecting the odds of 1-year survival following implantation (P<0.2). These variables were included in a multivariable model and dropped if significance rose above P=0.2. From this base model, we performed step-wise forward and backward selection for other covariates that improved power by minimizing Akaike Information Criteria while maximizing the Harrell Concordance Index. We then used Kaplan-Meier curves, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazard models to assess internal validity of the scoring system and its ability to stratify survival. A final optimized model was identified based on clinical and echocardiographic parameters preceding LVAD implantation. One-year mortality was significantly higher in patients with higher risk scores (hazard ratio, 1.38; P=0.004). This hazard ratio represents the multiplied risk of death for every increase of 1 point in the risk score. The risk score was validated in a separate patient cohort of 260 patients at Columbia University, which confirmed the prognostic utility of this risk score (P=0.0237). CONCLUSION: We present a novel risk score and its validation for prediction of long-term survival in patients with current types of continuous flow LVAD support.

Transplantation of "high-risk" donor hearts: Implications for infection.

BACKGROUND: Heart transplantation is the gold-standard treatment for end-stage heart failure. Short- and long-term outcomes have been excellent, but the shortage of organs persists. The number of potential recipients who die while awaiting orthotopic heart transplantation increases yearly. In 2004, the label "high-risk donor" (HRD) was applied, by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), to any organ donor who met the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria for behavior that put them at high risk of infection. Despite organ shortages, grafts from HRD CDCs are often declined, because of concerns regarding infection. We undertook this study to analyze our extensive experience with orthotopic heart transplantation of grafts from HRD CDCs, and to determine the short- and long-term outcomes associated with recipients of hearts from HRD CDCs, particularly transmission of infection. METHODS: We performed 367 heart transplantations at our center from September 2008 to September 2014, a timeframe during which the HRD CDC labeling had been implemented. Of the total number of orthotopic heart transplantations performed, 55 patients (15%) received organs from HRD CDCs that had known negative serology for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B, and hepatitis C. We reviewed demographic, perioperative, and short- and long-term outcomes. The recipients of grafts from HRD CDCs were followed closely, with 3- and 12-month surveillance laboratory testing of viral load for HIV, for hepatitis B, and for hepatitis C core- and surface-antigen serology. RESULTS: All 55 patients (72.7% were men) underwent a successful transplantation procedure. One patient was excluded from follow-up analysis because he was re-transplanted within 4 days owing to the posttransplant finding of metastatic lung adenocarcinoma within the donor. Primary etiology of heart failure was ischemic in 18 of the patients. The most common blood type was O positive, in 20 patients (37.1%), followed by A positive, in 19 patients (35.2%). A total of 19 (35.2%) patients were supported with a mechanical assist device before the transplantation. The average allograft ischemic time was 173 ± 96 minutes. The median length of hospital stay was 19.5 days. A low incidence was observed of the postoperative complications of stroke (1.9%), dialysis (3.9%), and complete heart block (3.9%). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated excellent survival, both short-term (1 year; 94%) and long-term (3 years; 80%). Allograft function was excellent at time of discharge with a left ejection fraction of 67.8% ± 7.3%. Only one patient (1.9%) was noted to have hepatitis C seroconversion at 105 days after receiving the transplant. After antiviral treatment, the patient has had undetectable viral loads to date. All other patients had undetectable plasma viral loads of HIV, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B, determined using rigorous testing. CONCLUSIONS: We present the only single-center series on recipients of heart transplants from HRD CDCs. This potential source of suitable donor organs is shown to lead to excellent survival, without an increased incidence of perioperative or postoperative complications. Furthermore, the risk of transmission of infection from donors in this subgroup seems to be minimal.