A risk scoring model of COVID-19 at hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been the most serious public health crisis in recent times, a pandemic whose impact was felt across the globe in various groups and populations. Confronted with an urgent problem, people and governments were forced to make decisions without fully understanding the disease. The present work aims to reinforce our ever-growing knowledge of the illness, particularly in modelling the risk of death of a patient admitted to a hospital with a positive COVID-19 test. METHODS: Given the simplicity of using and programming logistic regression in any national healthcare unit and the ease of interpreting the results, we chose to use this technique over several other. Using scoring techniques, it is possible to associate the various diagnoses with a numerical value (score), making it possible therefore to integrate the patient's multiple medical conditions as a single continuous variable in the model. RESULTS: It is possible to establish with good discriminatory capacity (ROC AUC Test = 0.8) which COVID patients are at higher risk when admitted to the healthcare unit-people of advanced age with pre-existing conditions, such as diabetes and high blood pressure, or newly acquired conditions, such as pneumonia. Moreover, males and clinical episodes occurring in healthcare units with few available beds (high healthcare unit occupancy) are also at higher risk. The importance of each variable in predicting the target is: age (47%), sum of comorbidity scores (28%), healthcare unit score (12.0%), gender score (7%) and healthcare unit occupancy (6%). CONCLUSIONS: Using a dataset with more than 52000 people, it was possible to successfully differentiate likelihood of death by COVID using age, comorbidity information, healthcare unit, healthcare unit occupancy and gender. The age and the comorbidities associated with each patient had a joint contribution of about 75% in explaining the COVID related mortality in Portuguese public hospitals in the period between March 2020 and May 2021.

The Perspectives of Patients and Health Professionals Regarding the Tuberculosis Control Programme in Recife, Brazil: A Contribution to Evaluation.

The study objective is to describe patients and professionals' perspectives on the Tuberculosis Control Program (PCT) in Recife, Brazil, contributing to the program evaluation. A cross-sectional study was conducted in three purposively selected sites, representing the three levels of care in the public health system. All eligible PCT patients in sites A, B and C were invited to participate (n = 123). Physicians, nurses, pharmacists and community health agents providing care to PCT patients in these sites, plus their managers, were purposively selected. Data were collected by means of interviews with 44 patients and a questionnaire to 24 professionals. Instruments encompassed previously published items to capture stakeholders' perspectives (16 and 12 closed-questions, respectively), grouped into categories. The overall evaluation by patients was unsatisfactory (median score 35%; third quartile below 50%; interquartile range 21.9%). Analysis of scores by categories showed that opinions about organizational accessibility were significantly worse than about economic and geographical accessibility, taken together. Overall the median score attributed by professionals was 52% (third quartile below 65%). Professionals had significantly worse opinions about diagnosis, clinical and laboratory assistance. Patients and professionals' perspectives highlight potential opportunities for improvement. Our findings can be used by managers as a starting point for shared decision-making, potentially contributing to a better performance of the PCT in Recife and, consequently, reducing the risk posed by tuberculosis.

In-hospital mortality in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: a new predictive model.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhotics with ascites. Early identification of high-risk patients is crucial for prognostic improvement. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) relies on a few objective variables and predicts short-term survival. We aimed to determine the predictive value of MELD score, at admission, in the short-term mortality of SBP patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 73 SBP episodes admitted in our department between January 2002 and April 2006. Diagnosis (neutrophil count in ascitic fluid >or=250/mm3) was established within 24 h and cefotaxime was immediately started. Data collected included age, sex, etiology of liver disease, severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy, serum creatinine, total bilirubin and albumin, prothrombin time with international normalized ratio, and ascitic fluid analysis. STATISTICS: Student's t-test, chi2 test, univariate analysis, logistic regression model, and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality rate was 37%. In multivariate analysis, MELD score (P<0.001), and advanced age (P<0.05) were independent predictors of mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve for MELD score revealed an excellent discriminatory ability to predict death, with an area under curve of 0.84. Age increased the predictive ability of MELD score, represented by an increment of area under curve to 0.88. CONCLUSION: MELD score and older age were independent predictors of mortality. Age increased the discriminatory ability of MELD score to predict death. This new model may be useful for stratifying patients in future therapeutic trials, deserving further validation.