Recommendations for quantitative uncertainty consideration in ecology and evolution.

Ecological and evolutionary studies are currently failing to achieve complete and consistent reporting of model-related uncertainty. We identify three key barriers - a focus on parameter-related uncertainty, obscure uncertainty metrics, and limited recognition of uncertainty propagation - which have led to gaps in uncertainty consideration. However, these gaps can be closed. We propose that uncertainty reporting in ecology and evolution can be improved through wider application of existing statistical solutions and by adopting good practice from other scientific fields. Our recommendations include greater consideration of input data and model structure uncertainties, field-specific uncertainty standards for methods and reporting, and increased uncertainty propagation through the use of hierarchical models.

Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines.

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty" framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

Alongshore upwelling modulates the intensity of marine heatwaves in a temperate coastal sea.

Analyses of long-term temperature records based on satellite data have revealed an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the world oceans, a trend directly associated with global change according to climate model simulations. However, these analyses often target open ocean pelagic systems and rarely include local scale, field temperature records that are more adequate to assess the impact of MHWs close to the land-sea interface. Here, we compared the incidence and characteristics of open ocean MHWs detected by satellites with those observed in the field over two decades (1998-2019) at two temperate intertidal locations in the central Cantabrian Sea, southern Bay of Biscay. Satellite retrievals tended to smooth out cooling events associated with intermittent, alongshore upwelling, especially during summer. These biases propagated to the characterization of MHWs and resulted in an overestimation of their incidence and duration close to the coast. To reconcile satellite and field records, we developed a downscaling approach based on regression modeling that enabled the reconstruction of past temperatures and analyze MHW trends. Despite the cooling effect due to upwelling, the temperature reconstructions revealed a six-fold increase in the incidence of MHWs in the Cantabrian Sea over the last four decades. A comparison between static (no trend) vs. dynamic (featuring a linear warming trend) MHW detection thresholds allowed us to attribute over half of the increase in MHW incidence to the ocean warming trend. Our results highlight the importance of local processes to fully characterize the complexity and impacts of MHWs on marine coastal ecosystems and call for the conservation of climate refugia associated with coastal upwelling to counter the impacts of climate warming.

Bacterial, Archaeal, and Eukaryotic Diversity across Distinct Microhabitats in an Acid Mine Drainage.

Acid mine drainages are characterized by their low pH and the presence of dissolved toxic metallic species. Microorganisms survive in different microhabitats within the ecosystem, namely water, sediments, and biofilms. In this report, we surveyed the microbial diversity within all domains of life in the different microhabitats at Los Rueldos abandoned mercury underground mine (NW Spain), and predicted bacterial function based on community composition. Sediment samples contained higher proportions of soil bacteria (AD3, Acidobacteria), as well as Crenarchaeota and Methanomassiliicoccaceae archaea. Oxic and hypoxic biofilm samples were enriched in bacterial iron oxidizers from the genus Leptospirillum, order Acidithiobacillales, class Betaproteobacteria, and archaea from the class Thermoplasmata. Water samples were enriched in Cyanobacteria and Thermoplasmata archaea at a 3-98% of the sunlight influence, whilst Betaproteobacteria, Thermoplasmata archaea, and Micrarchaea dominated in acid water collected in total darkness. Stalactites hanging from the Fe-rich mine ceiling were dominated by the neutrophilic iron oxidizer Gallionella and other lineages that were absent in the rest of the microhabitats (e.g., Chlorobi, Chloroflexi). Eukaryotes were detected in biofilms and open-air water samples, and belonged mainly to clades SAR (Alveolata and Stramenopiles), and Opisthokonta (Fungi). Oxic and hypoxic biofilms displayed higher proportions of ciliates (Gonostomum, Oxytricha), whereas water samples were enriched in fungi (Paramicrosporidium and unknown microbial Helotiales). Predicted function through bacterial community composition suggested adaptive evolutive convergence of function in heterogeneous communities. Our study showcases a broad description of the microbial diversity across different microhabitats in the same environment and expands the knowledge on the diversity of microbial eukaryotes in AMD habitats.

Use of Endophytic and Rhizosphere Bacteria To Improve Phytoremediation of Arsenic-Contaminated Industrial Soils by Autochthonous Betula celtiberica.

The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of indigenous arsenic-tolerant bacteria to enhance arsenic phytoremediation by the autochthonous pseudometallophyte Betula celtiberica The first goal was to perform an initial analysis of the entire rhizosphere and endophytic bacterial communities of the above-named accumulator plant, including the cultivable bacterial species. B. celtiberica's microbiome was dominated by taxa related to Flavobacteriales, Burkholderiales, and Pseudomonadales, especially the Pseudomonas and Flavobacterium genera. A total of 54 cultivable rhizobacteria and 41 root endophytes, mainly affiliated with the phyla Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, and Actinobacteria, were isolated and characterized with respect to several potentially useful features for metal plant accumulation, such as the ability to promote plant growth, metal chelation, and/or mitigation of heavy-metal stress. Seven bacterial isolates were further selected and tested for in vitro accumulation of arsenic in plants; four of them were finally assayed in field-scale bioaugmentation experiments. The exposure to arsenic in vitro caused an increase in the total nonprotein thiol compound content in roots, suggesting a detoxification mechanism through phytochelatin complexation. In the contaminated field, the siderophore and indole-3-acetic acid producers of the endophytic bacterial consortium enhanced arsenic accumulation in the leaves and roots of Betula celtiberica, whereas the rhizosphere isolate Ensifer adhaerens strain 91R mainly promoted plant growth. Field experimentation showed that additional factors, such as soil arsenic content and pH, influenced arsenic uptake in the plant, attesting to the relevance of field conditions in the success of phytoextraction strategies.IMPORTANCE Microorganisms and plants have developed several ways of dealing with arsenic, allowing them to resist and metabolize this metalloid. These properties form the basis of phytoremediation treatments and the understanding that the interactions of plants with soil bacteria are crucial for the optimization of arsenic uptake. To address this in our work, we initially performed a microbiome analysis of the autochthonous Betula celtiberica plants growing in arsenic-contaminated soils, including endosphere and rhizosphere bacterial communities. We then proceeded to isolate and characterize the cultivable bacteria that were potentially better suited to enhance phytoextraction efficiency. Eventually, we went to the field application stage. Our results corroborated the idea that recovery of pseudometallophyte-associated bacteria adapted to a large historically contaminated site and their use in bioaugmentation technologies are affordable experimental approaches and potentially very useful for implementing effective phytoremediation strategies with plants and their indigenous bacteria.

Role of upwelling on larval dispersal and productivity of gooseneck barnacle populations in the Cantabrian Sea: management implications.

The effect of coastal upwelling on the recruitment and connectivity of coastal marine populations has rarely been characterized to a level of detail to be included into sound fishery management strategies. The gooseneck barnacle (Pollicipes pollicipes) fishery at the Cantabrian Coast (Northern Spain) is located at the fringes of the NW Spanish Upwelling system. This fishery is being co-managed through a fine-scale, interspersed set of protected rocks where each rock receives a distinct level of protection. Such interspersion is potentially beneficial, but the extent to which such spacing is consistent with mean larval dispersal distances is as yet unknown. We have simulated the spread of gooseneck barnacle larvae in the Central Cantabrian Coast using a high-resolution time-series of current profiles measured at a nearshore location. During a year of high upwelling activity (2009), theoretical recruitment success was 94% with peak recruitment predicted 56 km west of the emission point. However, for a year of low upwelling activity (2011) theoretical recruitment success dropped to 15.4% and peak recruitment was expected 13 km east of the emission point. This is consistent with a positive correlation between catch rates and the Integrated Upwelling Index, using a 4-year lag to allow recruits to reach commercial size. Furthermore, a net long-term westward larval transport was estimated by means of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) sequences for five populations in the Cantabrian Sea. Our results call into question the role of long distance dispersal, driven by the mesoscale processes in the area, in gooseneck barnacle populations and point to the prevalent role of small-scale, asymmetric connectivity more consistent with the typical scale of the co-management process in this fishery.