Desarrollo y validación interna de un modelo de predicción clínica del riesgo de infección bacteriana nosocomial en pacientes con lupus eritematoso sistémico / Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model of the risk of nosocomial bacterial infection in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

RESUMEN Introducción: Los pacientes con lupus eritematoso sistémico (LES) tienen un riesgo aumen tado de padecer infecciones tanto adquiridas en la comunidad como asociadas con el cuidado de la salud. Las infecciones bacterianas son las más frecuentes y graves durante la hospitalización de estos pacientes. Objetivo: Desarrollar y validar internamente un modelo de predicción clínica de pronóstico del riesgo de infección bacteriana adquirida en el hospital en pacientes con LES, usando datos clínicos y de laboratorio obtenidos durante las primeras horas de hospitalización. Métodos: Se analizó una cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con LES mayores de 16 arios, hos pitalizados por motivos diferentes a infección bacteriana en 2 hospitales de alta complejidad de Medellín entre 2011 y 2016. Se compararon las características de los pacientes que des arrollaron el desenlace de infección bacteriana entre el día 3 y el día 15 de hospitalización con aquellos que no lo presentaron. Las variables significativas en el análisis bivariado fueron consideradas para la construcción del modelo por medio de regresión logística multivariada. Resultados: Se incluyeron 765 episodios, de los cuales 98 (12,8%) presentaron el desenlace de interés. Se consideraron 35 predictores candidatos. Las variables incorporadas en el modelo final fueron: edad, recuento de neutrófilos, puntaje de actividad lúpica SLEDAI, uso de sonda vesical, uso de catéter venoso central en las primeras 72 h, dosis de glucocorticoides en el mes previo y el uso de un antimalárico en los 3 meses previos. La capacidad de discrimi nación del modelo fue aceptable a buena (AUC-ROC 0,74; IC 95% 0,69-0,80). La prueba de bondad de ajuste de Hosmer-Lemeshow (p = 0,637) evidenció una adecuada calibración. Conclusión: Desarrollamos un modelo de predicción clínica de pronóstico del riesgo de infec ción bacteriana nosocomial en pacientes con LES. El modelo desarrollado está compuesto por variables clínicas y de laboratorio simples disponibles en el momento del ingreso al hospital. Se requieren estudios de validación externa y de impacto clínico antes de su implementación rutinaria.

ABSTRACT Introduction: Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have an increased risk of developing community-acquired infections, as well as those associated with health care. Bacterial infections are the most common and serious while these patients are in hospital. Objective: To develop, and internally validate, a clinical prediction model for the prognosis of the risk of hospital-acquired bacterial infection in SLE patients using clinical and laboratory data obtained during the first hours of hospital admission. Methods: An analysis was performed on retrospective cohort of patients with SLE older than 16 years and admitted for reasons other than bacterial infection in 2 highly complex hospitals in Medellín between 2011 and 2016. The characteristics of the patients who developed a bacterial infection were compared between day 3 and day 15 of hospital admission with those who did not develop one. The significant variables in the bivariate analysis were used for the construction of the model using multivariate logistic regression. Results: A total of 765 episodes were included, of which 98 (12.8%) presented the outcome of interest. Thirty-five candidate predictors were considered. The variables incorporated in the final model were: age, neutrophil count, SLEDAI lupus activity score, use of a bladder catheter, use of a central venous catheter in the first 72 h, glucocorticoid doses in the previous month, and use of an antimalarial drug in the 3 previous months. The discrimination capacity of the model was acceptable to good (AUC-ROC 0.74; 95% CI 0.69-0.80). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P = .637) suggested adequate calibration. Conclusion: A clinical prediction model of prognostic risk of nosocomial bacterial infection in patients with SLE has been developed. This model is made up of simple clinical and laboratory variables available at the time of hospital admission. External validation and clinical impact studies are required before routine implementation.

Features associated with hematologic abnormalities and their impact in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: Data from a multiethnic Latin American cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To examine hematological manifestations' correlates and their impact on damage accrual and mortality in SLE patients from the multiethnic, Latin American, GLADEL cohort. METHODS: In patients with recent SLE diagnosis (≤2 years), the association between follow-up hematological manifestations (per ACR criteria) and socio-demographic and clinical variables was examined by univariable and multivariable logistic regressions; their impact on damage accrual and mortality was examined by Poisson and Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses, respectively. RESULTS: Of 1437 patients, 948 (66.0%) developed ≥1 hematological manifestation [5.5% hemolytic anemia (AHA), 16.3% thrombocytopenia, and 56.4% lymphopenia] over 4.3 (3.3) follow-up years. Younger age, Mestizo ethnicity, hematologic disorder (at/or before SLE diagnosis), and first damage recorded were associated with hematological manifestations while antimalarials were negatively associated. AHA (at/or before SLE diagnosis), anti-Sm, and anti-RNP antibodies were associated with subsequent AHA occurrence while musculoskeletal involvement was negatively associated. Thrombocytopenia (at/or before SLE diagnosis), AHA, anti-phospholipid antibodies (aPLs), anti-SSA/Ro, anti-SSB/La antibodies, and first damage recorded were associated with later thrombocytopenia occurrence. Lymphopenia (at/or before SLE diagnosis), younger age at diagnosis, Mestizo ethnicity, having medical insurance, and first damage recorded were associated with subsequent lymphopenia occurrence while antimalarials and azathioprine treatment were negatively associated. AHA was associated with damage accrual and mortality after adjusting for variables known to affect these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Mestizo ethnicity and early hematological manifestations are risk factors for their subsequent occurrence while antimalarials have a protective effect. The associations between AHA and aPLs and thrombocytopenia were corroborated. AHA contributes independently to damage accrual and diminished survival.

Polyarthritis and pancreatic panniculitis associated with pancreatic carcinoma: review of the literature.

Pancreatic disorders, such as chronic or acute pancreatitis, and carcinoma may be infrequently accompanied or preceded by panniculitis or polyarthritis. This triad is known in the literature as the pancreatitis, panniculitis, and polyarthritis syndrome. Although the pancreatic disease of pancreatitis, panniculitis, and polyarthritis syndrome usually includes pancreatitis, here we review the literature with report of 1 additional case of polyarthritis and panniculitis occurring in the presence of pancreatic carcinoma. Given that the diagnosis is often difficult when abdominal symptoms are absent, knowledge of the association between panniculitis and polyarthritis with pancreatic disease may lead to a prompt diagnosis and management. The histopathology of the skin lesions can be a valuable clue for focusing attention to a pancreatic disease.