Impact of MELD-based allocation on end-stage renal disease after liver transplantation.

The proportion of patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT), with concomitant renal dysfunction, markedly increased after allocation by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was introduced. We examined the incidence of subsequent post-LT end-stage renal disease (ESRD) before and after the policy was implemented. Data on all adult deceased donor LT recipients between April 27, 1995 and December 31, 2008 (n = 59 242), from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, were linked with Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' ESRD data. Cox regression was used to (i) compare pre-MELD and MELD eras with respect to post-LT ESRD incidence, (ii) determine the risk factors for post-LT ESRD and (iii) quantify the association between ESRD incidence and mortality. Crude rates of post-LT ESRD were 12.8 and 14.5 per 1000 patient-years in the pre-MELD and MELD eras, respectively. Covariate-adjusted post-LT ESRD risk was higher in the MELD era (hazard ratio [HR]= 1.15; p = 0.0049). African American race, hepatitis C, pre-LT diabetes, higher creatinine, lower albumin, lower bilirubin and sodium >141 mmol/L at LT were also significant predictors of post-LT ESRD. Post-LT ESRD was associated with higher post-LT mortality (HR = 3.32; p < 0.0001). The risk of post-LT ESRD, a strong predictor of post-LT mortality, is 15% higher in the MELD era. This study identified potentially modifiable risk factors of post-LT ESRD. Early intervention and modification of these risk factors may reduce the burden of post-LT ESRD.

Donation after cardiac death liver transplantation: predictors of outcome.

We aimed to identify recipient, donor and transplant risk factors associated with graft failure and patient mortality following donation after cardiac death (DCD) liver transplantation. These estimates were derived from Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from all US liver-only DCD recipients between September 1, 2001 and April 30, 2009 (n = 1567) and Cox regression techniques. Three years post-DCD liver transplant, 64.9% of recipients were alive with functioning grafts, 13.6% required retransplant and 21.6% died. Significant recipient factors predictive of graft failure included: age ≥ 55 years, male sex, African-American race, HCV positivity, metabolic liver disorder, transplant MELD ≥ 35, hospitalization at transplant and the need for life support at transplant (all, p ≤ 0.05). Donor characteristics included age ≥ 50 years and weight >100 kg (all, p ≤ 0.005). Each hour increase in cold ischemia time (CIT) was associated with 6% higher graft failure rate (HR 1.06, p < 0.001). Donor warm ischemia time ≥ 35 min significantly increased graft failure rates (HR 1.84, p = 0.002). Recipient predictors of mortality were age ≥ 55 years, hospitalization at transplant and retransplantation (all, p ≤ 0.006). Donor weight >100 kg and CIT also increased patient mortality (all, p ≤ 0.035). These findings are useful for transplant surgeons creating DCD liver acceptance protocols.

The survival benefit of deceased donor liver transplantation as a function of candidate disease severity and donor quality.

The survival benefit of liver transplantation depends on candidate disease severity, as measured by MELD score. However, donor liver quality may also affect survival benefit. Using US data from the SRTR on 28 165 adult liver transplant candidates wait-listed between 2001 and 2005, we estimated survival benefit according to cross-classifications of candidate MELD score and deceased donor risk index (DRI) using sequential stratification. Covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for each liver transplant recipient at a given MELD with an organ of a given DRI, comparing posttransplant mortality to continued wait-listing with possible later transplantation using a lower-DRI organ. High-DRI organs were more often transplanted into lower-MELD recipients and vice versa. Compared to waiting for a lower-DRI organ, the lowest-MELD category recipients (MELD 6-8) who received high-DRI organs experienced significantly higher mortality (HR = 3.70; p < 0.0005). All recipients with MELD > or =20 had a significant survival benefit from transplantation, regardless of DRI. Transplantation of high-DRI organs is effective for high but not low-MELD candidates. Pairing of high-DRI livers with lower-MELD candidates fails to maximize survival benefit and may deny lifesaving organs to high-MELD candidates who are at high risk of death without transplantation.

Simultaneous liver-kidney transplantation: evaluation to decision making.

Questions about appropriate allocation of simultaneous liver and kidney transplants (SLK) are being asked because kidney dysfunction in the context of liver failure enhances access to deceased donor organs. There is specific concern that some patients who undergo combined liver and kidney transplantation may have reversible renal failure. There is also concern that liver transplants are placed prematurely in those with end-stage renal disease. Thus to assure allocation of transplants only to those truly in need, the transplant community met in March 2006 to review post-MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) data on the impact of renal function on liver waitlist and transplant outcomes and the results of SLK.

Geographic differences in event rates by model for end-stage liver disease score.

The ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to accurately predict death among liver transplant candidates allows for evaluation of geographic differences in transplant access for patients with similar death risk. Adjusted models of time to transplant and death for adult liver transplant candidates listed between 2002 and 2003 were developed to test for differences in MELD score among Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) regions and Donation Service Areas (DSA). The average MELD and relative risk (RR) of death varied somewhat by region (from 0.82 to 1.28), with only two regions having significant differences in RRs. Greater variability existed in adjusted transplant rates by region; 7 of 11 regions differed significantly from the national average. Simulation results indicate that an allocation system providing regional priority to candidates at MELD scores > or = 15 would increase the median MELD score at transplant and reduce the total number of deaths across DSA quintiles. Simulation results also indicate that increasing priority to higher MELD candidates would reduce the percentage variation among DSAs of transplants to patients with MELD scores > or = 15. The variation decrease was due to increasing the MELD score at time of transplantation in the DSAs with the lowest MELD scores at transplant.

Liver and intestine transplantation in the United States, 1995-2004.

Three years of survival data are now available and the impact of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) allocation system is becoming clear. After a decline in new registrants to the waiting list in 2002, the number increased to 10 856 new patients in 2004. Since the implementation of MELD, the percentage of patients who have been on the list for 1-2 years has declined from 24% to 19%. There has been a shift upward in the percentage of patients with higher MELD scores on the waiting list. An increasing percentage of adult living donor liver recipients are over the age of 50 years; from 1% in 1997 to 51% in 2004. Parents donating to children (93% of living donors in 1995), represented only 14% in 2004. Long-term adjusted patient survival declined with increasing recipient age in adults following either DDLT or LDLT. Cirrhosis caused by chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the leading indication for liver transplantation and is associated with reduced long-term survival in recipients with HCV compared to those without HCV, 68% at 5 years compared to 76%. Although the intestine waiting list has more than doubled over the last decade, an increasing number of centers now perform intestinal transplantation with greater success.

Characteristics associated with liver graft failure: the concept of a donor risk index.

Transplant physicians and candidates have become increasingly aware that donor characteristics significantly impact liver transplantation outcomes. Although the qualitative effect of individual donor variables are understood, the quantitative risk associated with combinations of characteristics are unclear. Using national data from 1998 to 2002, we developed a quantitative donor risk index. Cox regression models identified seven donor characteristics that independently predicted significantly increased risk of graft failure. Donor age over 40 years (and particularly over 60 years), donation after cardiac death (DCD), and split/partial grafts were strongly associated with graft failure, while African-American race, less height, cerebrovascular accident and 'other' causes of brain death were more modestly but still significantly associated with graft failure. Grafts with an increased donor risk index have been preferentially transplanted into older candidates (>50 years of age) with moderate disease severity (nonstatus 1 with lower model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores) and without hepatitis C. Quantitative assessment of the risk of donor liver graft failure using a donor risk index is useful to inform the process of organ acceptance.