Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback.

The climate feedback determines how Earth's climate responds to anthropogenic forcing. It is thought to have been more negative in recent decades due to a sea surface temperature "pattern effect," whereby warming is concentrated in the western tropical Pacific, where nonlocal radiative feedbacks are very negative. This phenomenon has however primarily been studied within climate models. We diagnose a pattern effect from historical records as an evolution of the climate feedback over the past five decades. Our analysis assumes a constant rate of change of the climate feedback, which is justified post hoc. We find a decrease in climate feedback by 0.8 ± 0.5 W m-2 K-1 over the past 50 years, corresponding to a reduction in climate sensitivity. Earth system models' climate feedbacks instead increase over this period. Understanding and simulating this historical trend and its future evolution are critical for reliable climate projections.

Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present.

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Food allergen detection methods: a coordinated approach.

The levels (1-2%) and increasing severity of allergic responses to food in the adult population are well documented, as is the phenomenon of even higher (3-8%) and apparently increasing incidence in children, albeit that susceptibility decreases with age. Problematic foods include peanut, milk, eggs, tree nuts, and sesame, but the list is growing as awareness continues to rise. The amounts of such foods that can cause allergic reactions is difficult to gauge; however, the general consensus is that ingestion of low parts per million is sufficient to cause severe reactions in badly affected individuals. Symptoms can rapidly-within minutes-progress from minor discomfort to severe, even life-threatening anaphylactic shock in those worst affected. Given the combination of high incidence of atopy, potential severity of response, and apparently widespread instances of "hidden" allergens in the food supply, it is not surprising that this issue is increasingly subject to legislative and regulatory scrutiny. In order to assist in the control of allergen levels in foods to acceptable levels, analysts require a combination of test methods, each designed to produce accurate, timely, and cost-effective analytical information. Such information contributes significantly to Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point programs to determine food manufacturers' risk and improves the accuracy of monitoring and surveillance by food industry, commercial, and enforcement laboratories. Analysis thereby facilitates improvements in compliance with labeling laws with concomitant reductions in risks to atopic consumers. This article describes a combination of analytical approaches to fulfill the various needs of these 3 analytical communities.