Cubic splines to model relationships between continuous variables and outcomes: a guide for clinicians.

SERIES EDITORS' NOTE: We are pleased to add this typescript to the Bone Marrow Transplantation Statistics Series. We realize the term cubic splines may be a bit off-putting to some readers, but stay with us and don't get lost in polynomial equations. What the authors describe is important conceptually and in practice. Have you ever tried to buy a new pair of hiking boots? Getting the correct fit is critical; shoes that are too small or too large will get you in big trouble! Now imagine if hiking shoes came in only 2 sizes, small and large, and your foot size was somewhere in between. You are in trouble. Sailing perhaps?Transplant physicians are often interested in the association between two variables, say pre-transplant measurable residual disease (MRD) test state and an outcome, say cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR). We typically reduce the results of an MRD test to a binary, negative or positive, often defined by an arbitrary cut-point. However, MRD state is a continuous biological variable, and reducing it to a binary discards what may be important, useful data when we try to correlate it with CIR. Put otherwise, we may miss the trees from the forest.Another way to look at splines is a technique to make smooth curves out of irregular data points. Consider, for example, trying to describe the surface of an egg. You could do it with a series of straight lines connecting points on the egg surface but a much better representation would be combining groups of points into curves and then combining the curves. To prove this try drawing an egg using the draw feature in Microsoft Powerpoint; you are making splines.Gauthier and co-workers show us how to use cubic splines to get the maximum information from data points, which may, unkindly, not lend themselves to dichotomization or a best fit line. Please read on. We hope readers will find their typescript interesting and exciting, and that it will give them a new way to think about how to analyse data. And no, a spline is not a bunch of cactus spines. Robert Peter Gale, Imperial College London, and Mei-Jie Zhang, Medical College of Wisconsin and CIBMTR.

Biomarkers in chronic graft-versus-host disease: quo vadis?

Biomarkers are increasingly used for diagnosis and treatment of transplant-related complications including the first biomarker-driven interventional trials of acute graft-versus-host disease (GvHD). In contrast, the development of biomarkers of chronic GvHD (cGvHD) has lagged behind due to a broader variety of manifestations, overlap with acute GvHD, a greater variation in time to onset and maximum severity, and lack of sufficient patient numbers within prospective trials. An international workshop organized by a North-American and European consortium was held in Marseille in March 2017 with the goal to discuss strategies for future biomarker development to guide cGvHD therapy. As a result of this meeting, two areas were prioritized: the development of prognostic biomarkers for subsequent onset of moderate/severe cGvHD, and in parallel, the development of qualified clinical-grade assays for biomarker quantification. The most promising prognostic serum biomarkers are CXCL9, ST2, matrix metalloproteinase-3, osteopontin, CXCL10, CXCL11, and CD163. Urine-proteomics and cellular subsets (CD4+ T-cell subsets, NK cell subsets, and CD19+CD21low B cells) represent additional potential prognostic biomarkers of cGvHD. A joint effort is required to verify the results of numerous exploratory trials before any of the potential candidates is ready for validation and subsequent clinical application.

Bendamustine, etoposide and dexamethasone to mobilize peripheral blood hematopoietic stem cells for autologous transplantation in patients with multiple myeloma.

Chemotherapeutic agents without cross-resistance to prior therapies may enhance PBSC collection and improve patient outcomes by exacting a more potent direct antitumor effect before autologous stem cell transplant. Bendamustine has broad clinical activity in transplantable lymphoid malignancies, but concern remains over the potential adverse impact of this combined alkylator-nucleoside analog on stem cell mobilization. We performed a prospective, nonrandomized phase II study including 34 patients with multiple myeloma (MM) (n=34; International Staging System (ISS) stages I (35%), II (29%) and III (24%); not scored (13%)) to evaluate bendamustine's efficacy and safety as a stem cell mobilizing agent. Patients received bendamustine (120 mg/m2 IV days 1, 2), etoposide (200 mg/m2 IV days 1-3) and dexamethasone (40 mg PO days 1- 4) (bendamustine, etoposide and dexamethasone (BED)) followed by filgrastim (10 µg/kg/day SC; through collection). All patients (100%) successfully yielded stem cells (median of 21.60 × 106/kg of body weight; range 9.24-55.5 × 106/kg), and 88% required a single apheresis. Six nonhematologic serious adverse events were observed in 6 patients including: neutropenic fever (1, grade 3), bone pain (1, grade 3) and renal insufficiency (1, grade 1). In conclusion, BED safely and effectively mobilizes hematopoietic stem cells.

Blood glucose control using a computer-guided glucose management system in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a potentially curative treatment for patients with hematological malignancies. However, is associated with substantial rates of morbidity and mortality. We and others have shown that malglycemia is associated with adverse transplant outcome. Therefore, improving glycemic control may improve transplant outcome. In this prospective study we evaluated the feasibility of using Glucommander (a Computer-Guided Glucose Management System; CGGM) in order to achieve improved glucose control in hospitalized HCT patients. Nineteen adult patients contributed 21 separate instances on CGGM. Patients were on CGGM for a median of 43 h. Median initial blood glucose (BG) on CGGM was 244 mg/dL, and patients on 20 study instances reached the study BG target of 100-140 mg/dL after a median of 6 h. After BG reached the target range, the median average BG level per patient was 124 mg/dL. Six patients had a total of 10 events of BG <70 mg/dL (0.9% of BG measurements), and no patients experienced BG level <40 mg/dL. The total estimated duration of BG <70 mg/dL was 3 h (0.2% of the total CGGM time). In conclusion, our study demonstrates that stringent BG control in HCT patients using CGGM is feasible.

A randomized study of melphalan 200 mg/m(2) vs 280 mg/m(2) as a preparative regimen for patients with multiple myeloma undergoing auto-SCT.

We aimed to examine whether doses of melphalan higher than 200 mg/m(2) improve response rates when used as conditioning before autologous transplant (ASCT) in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. Patients with MM, n=131, were randomized to 200 mg/m(2) (mel200) vs 280 mg/m(2) (mel280) using amifostine pretreatment. The primary end point was the proportion of patients achieving near complete response (⩾nCR). No treatment-related deaths occurred in this study. Responses following ASCT were for mel200 vs mel280, respectively, ⩾nCR 22 vs 39%, P=0.03, ⩾PR 57 vs 74%, P=0.04. The hazard of mortality was not statistically significantly different between groups (mel200 vs mel280; hazard ratio (HR)=1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.62-2.13, P=0.66)) nor was the rate of progression/mortality (HR=0.81 (0.52-1.27, P=0.36)). The estimated PFS at 1 and 3 years were 83 and 46%, respectively, for mel200 and 78 and 54%, respectively, for mel280. Amifostine and mel280 were well tolerated, with no grade 4 regimen-related toxicities and only one grade 3 mucositis (none with mel200) and three grade 3 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicities (two in mel200). Hospitalization rates were more frequent in the mel280 group (59 vs 43%, P=0.08). Mel280 resulted in a higher major response rate (CR+nCR) and should be evaluated in larger studies.

Extracorporeal photopheresis combined with pentostatin in the conditioning regimen for canine hematopoietic cell transplantation does not prevent GVHD.

Extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) and the purine analog pentostatin exert potent immunomodulatory effects. We evaluated the use of these treatment modalities to prevent GVHD in a canine model of unrelated dog leukocyte Ag-mismatched hematopoietic cell transplantation, after conditioning with 920 cGy TBI. We have shown previously in this model that 36/40 dogs given MTX alone as postgrafting immunosuppression engrafted and that 25 of 40 dogs had severe GVHD and median survival of 21 days. In the current study, nine dogs received conditioning with 920 cGy TBI and postgrafting MTX either with ECP on days -2 to -1 alone (n=5) or ECP on days -6 and -5 combined with two doses of pentostatin (days -4 to -3) (n=4). Seven of nine dogs achieved engraftment. Six dogs developed severe acute GVHD (four in the group with ECP alone and two with pentostatin and ECP). We failed to demonstrate a positive impact of ECP and pentostatin for the prevention of GVHD compared with historical control dogs.

Urinary cytokines after HCT: evidence for renal inflammation in the pathogenesis of proteinuria and kidney disease.

We compared urinary levels of cytokines in patients with and without albuminuria, proteinuria and kidney disease (glomerular filtration rate<60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)) after HCT. Plasma and urine were collected at baseline and weekly through day 100 and monthly through year 1, for measurement of IL-6, gp130, sIL6r, IL-10, IL15, MCP-1 and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratios (ACRs). Cox-proportional hazards modeling examined associations between urinary cytokine levels and development of these renal end points. The association of ACR with the hazard of overall mortality was assessed using Cox regression. Increasing urinary IL-6 and IL-15 were associated with an increased risk of developing proteinuria. Urinary MCP-1 during the first 100 days post HCT was associated with kidney disease at 1 year. The degree of albuminuria at any time point in the first 100 days post transplant was related to the subsequent risk of death (for ACR 30-299, hazard ratio (HR)=1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-2.87; for ACR >300, HR=2.82; 95% CI: 1.60-4.98). After HCT, elevated urinary levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines are associated with development of albuminuria and proteinuria, suggesting early intra-renal inflammation as an important pathogenetic mechanism. Albuminuria and proteinuria within the first 100 days post HCT are associated with decreased overall survival.

Effects on tumor development and metastatic dissemination by the NKG2D lymphocyte receptor expressed on cancer cells.

The stimulatory NKG2D lymphocyte receptor together with its tumor-associated ligands enable the immune system to recognize and destroy cancer cells. However, with dynamic changes unfolding, cancers exploit NKG2D and its ligands for immune evasion and suppression. Recent findings have added yet another functional dimension, wherein cancer cells themselves co-opt NKG2D for their own benefit to complement the presence of its ligands for self-stimulation of parameters of tumorigenesis. Those findings are here extended to in vivo tumorigenicity testing by employing orthotopic xenotransplant breast cancer models in mice. Using human cancer lines with ectopic NKG2D expression and RNA interference (RNAi)-mediated protein depletion among other controls, we show that NKG2D self-stimulation has tumor-promoting capacity. NKG2D signals had no notable effects on cancer cell proliferation and survival but acted at the level of angiogenesis, thus promoting tumor growth, tumor cell intravasation and dissemination. NKG2D-mediated effects on tumor initiation may represent another factor in the observed overall enhancement of tumor development. Altogether, these results may have an impact on immunotherapy approaches, which currently do not account for such NKG2D effects in cancer patients and thus could be misdirected as underlying assumptions are incomplete.

Characteristics of chronic GVHD after cord blood transplantation.

Most reports of chronic GVHD after cord blood transplantation (CBT) have utilized traditional diagnostic criteria. We used traditional criteria and National Institutes of Health (NIH) criteria prospectively to evaluate chronic GVHD in a cohort of 87 adult and pediatric recipients of single or double unrelated CBT for treatment of hematologic malignancies. Fifty-four patients developed traditionally defined chronic GVHD, for an estimated 2-year probability of 64%. Among 54 patients, 25 (46%) met the NIH criteria for persistent, recurrent or late acute GVHD at onset. Twenty-four (44%) had overlap chronic GVHD, including one who presented initially with late acute GVHD, and only seven (13%) had classic chronic GVHD, including one who also presented initially with late acute GVHD. Among patients who successfully discontinued all systemic immunosuppression (SI), the median time to discontinuation of corticosteroid treatment was 315 days (range 28-977), and the median time to discontinuation of all SI was 353 days (range 67-977). Chronic GVHD diagnosed by traditional criteria after CBT had a predominance of acute GVHD clinical features.

16th IHIW: international histocompatibility working group in hematopoietic cell transplantation.

The International Histocompatibility Working Group is a collaborative international effort to understand the HLA and non-HLA genetics of the transplantation barrier. The Working Group is comprised of experts in the fields of histocompatibility and immunogenetics, hematopoietic cell transplantation and outcomes research. Data for 25 855 unrelated donor transplants were submitted in support of research studies for the 16th International Histocompatibility Workshop. Active investigation is in progress in seven key areas: the impact of HLA matching, role of race and ethnicity, identification of permissible HLA mismatches, haplotype-associated determinants, minor histocompatibility antigens, immune response genes and KIR genetics. New hypotheses for the 16th workshop were developed for immunogenetic studies in cord blood and haploidentical-related donor transplantation.

Double umbilical cord blood transplantation in patients with hematologic malignancies using a reduced-intensity preparative regimen without antithymocyte globulin.

Reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens in cord blood transplant (CBT) are increasingly utilized for older patients and those with comorbidities. However, the optimal conditioning regimen has not yet been established and remains a significant challenge of this therapeutic approach. Antithymocyte globulin (ATG) has been incorporated into conditioning regimens in order to decrease the risk of graft failure; however, use of ATG is often associated with infusion reactions and risk of post-transplant complications. We report the results of a non-ATG-containing RIC regimen, where patients received 2 Gy TBI unless they were considered to be at higher risk of graft failure, in which case they received 3 Gy of TBI. Thirty patients underwent CBT using this protocol for high-risk hematological malignancies. There was only one case of secondary and no cases of primary graft failure. At 1 year, estimates of non-relapse mortality, OS and PFS were 29%, 53% and 45%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of grade III-IV acute and chronic GVHD were 14% and 18%, respectively. In summary, the results of this study demonstrate that this non-ATG-containing conditioning regimen provides a low incidence of graft failure without increasing regimen-related toxicity.

Cyclophosphamide-based in vivo T-cell depletion for HLA-haploidentical transplantation in Fanconi anemia.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the only known cure for patients with Fanconi anemia (FA) who develop aplasia or leukemia. However, transplant regimens typically contain high-dose alkylators, which are poorly tolerated in FA patients. Furthermore, as many patients lack human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-matched family donors, alternative donors are used, which can increase the risk of both graft rejection and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). To improve on these three concerns, we developed a multi-institutional clinical trial using a fludarabine (FLU)-based conditioning regimen with limited alkylators/low-dose radiation, HLA-haploidentical marrow, followed by reduced-dose cyclophosphamide (CY) to treat three FA patients with aplasia. All three patients engrafted with 100% donor CD3 chimerism at 1 month. One patient died early from disseminated toxoplasmosis infection. Of the two survivors, one had significant pretransplant co-morbidities and inadequate immunosuppression, and developed severe acute GVHD. The other patient had only mild acute and no chronic GVHD. With a follow-up of 2 and 3 years, respectively, both patients are doing well, are transfusion-independent, and maintain full donor chimerism. The patient with severe GVHD has resolving oral GVHD and good quality of life. We conclude that using low-intensity conditioning, HLA-haploidentical marrow, and reduced-dose CY for in vivo T-cell depletion can correct life-threatening aplasia in FA patients.

Predicting relapse prior to transplantation in chronic myeloid leukemia by integrating expert knowledge and expression data.

MOTIVATION: Selecting a small number of signature genes for accurate classification of samples is essential for the development of diagnostic tests. However, many genes are highly correlated in gene expression data, and hence, many possible sets of genes are potential classifiers. Because treatment outcomes are poor in advanced chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), we hypothesized that expression of classifiers of advanced phase CML when detected in early CML [chronic phase (CP) CML], correlates with subsequent poorer therapeutic outcome. RESULTS: We developed a method that integrates gene expression data with expert knowledge and predicted functional relationships using iterative Bayesian model averaging. Applying our integrated method to CML, we identified small sets of signature genes that are highly predictive of disease phases and that are more robust and stable than using expression data alone. The accuracy of our algorithm was evaluated using cross-validation on the gene expression data. We then tested the hypothesis that gene sets associated with advanced phase CML would predict relapse after allogeneic transplantation in 176 independent CP CML cases. Our gene signatures of advanced phase CML are predictive of relapse even after adjustment for known risk factors associated with transplant outcomes.

Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation following high-dose immunosuppressive therapy for advanced multiple sclerosis: long-term results.

The purpose of the study was to determine the long-term safety and effectiveness of high-dose immunosuppressive therapy (HDIT) followed by autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (AHCT) in advanced multiple sclerosis (MS). TBI, CY and antithymocyte globulin were followed by transplantation of autologous, CD34-selected PBSCs. Neurological examinations, brain magnetic resonance imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for oligoclonal bands (OCB) were serially evaluated. Patients (n=26, mean Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)=7.0, 17 secondary progressive, 8 primary progressive, 1 relapsing/remitting) were followed for a median of 48 months after HDIT followed by AHCT. The 72-month probability of worsening ≥1.0 EDSS point was 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.75). Five patients had an EDSS at baseline of ≤6.0; four of them had not failed treatment at last study visit. OCB in CSF persisted with minor changes in the banding pattern. Four new or enhancing lesions were seen on MRI, all within 13 months of treatment. In this population with high baseline EDSS, a significant proportion of patients with advanced MS remained stable for as long as 7 years after transplant. Non-inflammatory events may have contributed to neurological worsening after treatment. HDIT/AHCT may be more effective in patients with less advanced relapsing/remitting MS.

Extracorporeal photopheresis in addition to pentostatin in conditioning for canine hematopoietic cell transplantation: role in engraftment.

Extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) and the purine analog pentostatin exert potent immunomodulatory effects, but have not been evaluated for their ability to enhance engraftment of hematopoietic stem cells. We evaluated, in a canine model of dog leukocyte antigen (DLA)-identical hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), whether ECP in combination with pentostatin could enhance engraftment using a nonmyeloablative regimen consisting of 100 cGy TBI and postgrafting immunosuppression with mycophenolate mofetil and CYA. We have shown previously that with 100 cGy TBI alone as conditioning, all of the six dogs rejected their grafts 2-12 weeks after HCT. With the addition of pentostatin to 100 cGy TBI, 6 of 10 dogs rejected their graft. We now tested the additional use of ECP alone (n=2) or ECP and 3-6 doses of pentostatin (n=7) before 100 cGy TBI and HCT. Eight out of nine dogs rejected their grafts within 6-11 weeks after HCT. Compared with data without ECP, we failed to demonstrate a positive impact of the use of either ECP or pentostatin for prevention of rejection.

Comparison of matched unrelated and matched related donor myeloablative hematopoietic cell transplantation for adults with acute myeloid leukemia in first remission.

Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) from a matched related donor (MRD) benefits many adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR1). The majority of patients does not have such a donor and will require an alternative donor if HCT is to be undertaken. We retrospectively analyzed 226 adult AML CR1 patients undergoing myeloablative unrelated donor (URD) (10/10 match, n=62; 9/10, n=29) or MRD (n=135) HCT from 1996 to 2007. The 5-year estimates of overall survival, relapse and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) were 57.9, 29.7 and 16.0%, respectively. Failure for each of these outcomes was slightly higher for 10/10 URD than MRD HCT, although statistical significance was not reached for any end point. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.43 (0.89-2.30, P=0.14) for overall mortality, 1.17 (0.66-2.08, P=0.60) for relapse and 1.79 (0.86-3.74, P=0.12) for NRM, respectively, and the adjusted odds ratio for grades 2-4 acute graft-versus-host disease was 1.50 (0.70-3.24, P=0.30). Overall mortality among 9/10 and 10/10 URD recipients was similar (adjusted HR 1.16 (0.52-2.61), P=0.71). These data indicate that URD HCT can provide long-term survival for CR1 AML; outcomes for 10/10 URD HCT, and possibly 9/10 URD HCT, suggest that this modality should be considered in the absence of a suitable MRD.

Influence of oral beclomethasone dipropionate on early non-infectious pulmonary outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation: results from two randomized trials.

Early non-infectious pulmonary complications represent a significant cause of mortality after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We tested the hypothesis that oral beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP) is effective for preventing early non-infectious pulmonary complications after allogeneic HCT. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 120 patients, 60 in each treatment arm, to identify non-infectious and infectious pulmonary events and pulmonary function test results from all patients who participated in two randomized trials of oral BDP for treatment of acute gastrointestinal GVHD. 17-Beclomethasone monopropionate (17-BMP), the active metabolite of BDP, was evaluated in blood from the right atrium in four patients. Thirty-three of 42 (79%) placebo-treated patients experienced a decrease of the DL(CO) from pretransplant to day 80 after transplant, compared with 27 of 49 (55%) BDP-treated patients (P=0.02). In the first 200 days after randomization, there were no cases of non-infectious pulmonary complications in BDP-treated patients, vs four cases among placebo-treated patients (P=0.04). Levels of 17-BMP were detected in atrial blood at steady state. Delivery of a potent glucocorticoid such as 17-BMP to the pulmonary artery after oral dosing of BDP may be useful in modulating pulmonary inflammation and preventing the development of non-infectious pulmonary complications after allogeneic HCT.