Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

The control of highly infectious diseases of agricultural and plantation crops and livestock represents a key challenge in epidemiological and ecological modelling, with implemented control strategies often being controversial. Mathematical models, including the spatio-temporal stochastic models considered here, are playing an increasing role in the design of control as agencies seek to strengthen the evidence on which selected strategies are based. Here, we investigate a general approach to informing the choice of control strategies using spatio-temporal models within the Bayesian framework. We illustrate the approach for the case of strategies based on pre-emptive removal of individual hosts. For an exemplar model, using simulated data and historic data on an epidemic of Asiatic citrus canker in Florida, we assess a range of measures for prioritizing individuals for removal that take account of observations of an emerging epidemic. These measures are based on the potential infection hazard a host poses to susceptible individuals (hazard), the likelihood of infection of a host (risk) and a measure that combines both the hazard and risk (threat). We find that the threat measure typically leads to the most effective control strategies particularly for clustered epidemics when resources are scarce. The extension of the methods to a range of other settings is discussed. A key feature of the approach is the use of functional-model representations of the epidemic model to couple epidemic trajectories under different control strategies. This induces strong positive correlations between the epidemic outcomes under the respective controls, serving to reduce both the variance of the difference in outcomes and, consequently, the need for extensive simulation.

Solar thermotherapy reduces the titer of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus and enhances canopy growth by altering gene expression profiles in HLB-affected citrus plants.

Huanglongbing (HLB), a systemic and destructive disease of citrus, is associated with 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (Las) in the United States. Our earlier work has shown that Las bacteria were significantly reduced or eliminated when potted HLB-affected citrus were continuously exposed to high temperatures of 40 to 42 °C for a minimum of 48 h. To determine the feasibility and effectiveness of solar thermotherapy in the field, portable plastic enclosures were placed over commercial and residential citrus, exposing trees to high temperatures through solarization. Within 3-6 weeks after treatment, most trees responded with vigorous new growth. Las titer in new growth was greatly reduced for 18-36 months after treatment. Unlike with potted trees, exposure to high heat did not eradicate the Las population under field conditions. This may be attributed to reduced temperatures at night in the field compared to continuous high temperature exposure that can be maintained in growth chambers, and the failure to achieve therapeutic temperatures in the root zone. Despite the presence of Las in heat-treated commercial citrus, many trees produced abundant flush and grew vigorously for 2 to 3 years after treatment. Transcriptome analysis comparing healthy trees to HLB-affected citrus both before and after heat treatment demonstrated that post-treatment transcriptional expression patterns more closely resembled the expression patterns of healthy controls for most differentially expressed genes and that genes involved with plant-bacterium interactions are upregulated after heat treatment. Overall, these results indicate that solar thermotherapy can be an effective component of an integrated control strategy for citrus HLB.

Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time.

Optimising and communicating options for the control of invasive plant disease when there is epidemiological uncertainty.

Although local eradication is routinely attempted following introduction of disease into a new region, failure is commonplace. Epidemiological principles governing the design of successful control are not well-understood. We analyse factors underlying the effectiveness of reactive eradication of localised outbreaks of invading plant disease, using citrus canker in Florida as a case study, although our results are largely generic, and apply to other plant pathogens (as we show via our second case study, citrus greening). We demonstrate how to optimise control via removal of hosts surrounding detected infection (i.e. localised culling) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic epidemiological model. We show how to define optimal culling strategies that take account of stochasticity in disease spread, and how the effectiveness of disease control depends on epidemiological parameters determining pathogen infectivity, symptom emergence and spread, the initial level of infection, and the logistics and implementation of detection and control. We also consider how optimal culling strategies are conditioned on the levels of risk acceptance/aversion of decision makers, and show how to extend the analyses to account for potential larger-scale impacts of a small-scale outbreak. Control of local outbreaks by culling can be very effective, particularly when started quickly, but the optimum strategy and its performance are strongly dependent on epidemiological parameters (particularly those controlling dispersal and the extent of any cryptic infection, i.e. infectious hosts prior to symptoms), the logistics of detection and control, and the level of local and global risk that is deemed to be acceptable. A version of the model we developed to illustrate our methodology and results to an audience of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators and growers, is available online as an interactive, user-friendly interface at http://www.webidemics.com/. This version of our model allows the complex epidemiological principles that underlie our results to be communicated to a non-specialist audience.

Thirteen challenges in modelling plant diseases.

The underlying structure of epidemiological models, and the questions that models can be used to address, do not necessarily depend on the host organism in question. This means that certain preoccupations of plant disease modellers are similar to those of modellers of diseases in human, livestock and wild animal populations. However, a number of aspects of plant epidemiology are very distinctive, and this leads to specific challenges in modelling plant diseases, which in turn sets a certain agenda for modellers. Here we outline a selection of 13 challenges, specific to plant disease epidemiology, that we feel are important targets for future work.

Bayesian inference for an emerging arboreal epidemic in the presence of control.

The spread of Huanglongbing through citrus groves is used as a case study for modeling an emerging epidemic in the presence of a control. Specifically, the spread of the disease is modeled as a susceptible-exposed-infectious-detected-removed epidemic, where the exposure and infectious times are not observed, detection times are censored, removal times are known, and the disease is spreading through a heterogeneous host population with trees of different age and susceptibility. We show that it is possible to characterize the disease transmission process under these conditions. Two innovations in our work are (i) accounting for control measures via time dependence of the infectious process and (ii) including seasonal and host age effects in the model of the latent period. By estimating parameters in different subregions of a large commercially cultivated orchard, we establish a temporal pattern of invasion, host age dependence of the dispersal parameters, and a close to linear relationship between primary and secondary infectious rates. The model can be used to simulate Huanglongbing epidemics to assess economic costs and potential benefits of putative control scenarios.

Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive). In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a fundamental step in future modelling of weather-driven epidemics.

What interval characteristics make a good categorical disease assessment scale?

Plant pathologists most often obtain quantitative information on disease severity using visual assessments. Category scales have been used for assessing plant disease severity in field experiments, epidemiological studies, and for screening germplasm. The most widely used category scale is the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale, but reports show that estimates of disease severity using the H-B scale are less precise compared with nearest percent estimates (NPEs) using the 0 to 100% ratio scale. Few studies have compared different category scales. The objective of this study was to compare NPEs, the H-B midpoint converted data, and four different linear category scales (5 and 10% increments, with and without additional grades at low severity [0.1, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0, 15.0, 20.0…100%, and 0.1, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0, 20.0, 30.0…100%, respectively]). Results of simulations based on known distributions of disease estimation using the type II error rate (the risk of failing to reject H0 when H0 is false) showed that at disease severity ≤ 5%, a 10% category scale had a greater probability of failing to reject H0 when H0 is false compared with all other methods, while the H-B scale performed least well at 20 to 50% severity. The 5% category scale performed as well as NPEs except when disease severity was ≤ 1%. Both the 5 and 10% category scales with the additional grades included performed as well as NPEs. These results were confirmed with a mixed model analysis and bootstrap analysis of the original rater assessment data. A better knowledge of the advantages and disadvantages of category scale types will provide a basis for plant pathologists and plant breeders seeking to maximize accuracy and reliability of assessments to make an informed decision when choosing a disease assessment method.

Pecan Scab Severity-Effects of Assessment Methods.

Pecan scab is caused by the fungus Fusicladium effusum, and is the most destructive disease of pecan in the United States. Accurate and reliable disease assessments are needed to ensure that data provide a measure of actual disease intensity. The Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) category scale and its derivatives are commonly used to assess disease. Estimates using the H-B scale were compared with nearest percent estimate (NPEs) for rating disease severity of pecan scab on valves of fruit. Both inexperienced and experienced raters were included in the experiment. Lin's concordance correlation showed that agreement using NPEs was variable (ρc = 0.57 to 0.96), whereas estimates of disease severity using the H-B scale had similar agreement among most raters (ρc = 0.59 to 0.98). Converted values of NPEs to the H-B midpoints (NPEH-B) also provided a similar range (ρc = 0.61 to 0.96). Neither experienced nor inexperienced raters were consistently better using any of the three methods. Bootstrap analysis indicated that, among experienced raters, precision (r) and agreement (ρc) were often reduced when using the H-B scale compared with NPEs. There was no consistent effect of converting NPEs to NPEH-B midpoint values compared with actual H-B values. Inter-rater reliability using the H-B scale was never better than NPEs. Bootstrap analysis indicated no difference in the length of time needed to assess disease but regression analysis suggested that raters who were inherently fast in assessing disease with NPEs were often slower when using the H-B scale; conversely, raters who were slow assessing with NPEs were often faster when using the H-B scale. Thus, there appears to be no advantage in accuracy or reliability or reduction in time when inexperienced or experienced raters used a category rating scale to assess pecan scab.

Efficacy of Area-Wide Inoculum Reduction and Vector Control on Temporal Progress of Huanglongbing in Young Sweet Orange Plantings.

Huanglongbing (HLB), caused by 'Candidatus Liberibacter' spp. and transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri (ACP), is an important threat to citrus industries worldwide, causing significant yield loss. The current recommended strategies to manage HLB are to eliminate HLB-symptomatic trees to reduce sources of bacterial inoculum and to apply insecticides to reduce psyllid vector populations. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness and the importance of both strategies applied within young citrus plots (local management), in different frequencies and combinations, on HLB temporal progress. Two factorial field experiments, E1 and E2, were initiated in a new plantation of sweet orange in an HLB epidemic region of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in October 2005 and May 2006, respectively. Local inoculum reduction (tree removal) intervals for E1 were every 4, 8, and 16 weeks and, for E2, every 2, 4, 12, and 26 weeks. Local vector control strategies for E1 were no control, program A (PA), and program B (PB); and, for E2, no control and program C (PC), as follows. Psyllids were controlled with two 56-day-interval soil or drench applications of systemic insecticides concurrently with the rainy season each year and, during the rest of the year, with insecticide sprays every 28 days for PA and every 14 days for PB and PC. Regional HLB management was present for E1 and absent for E2. The beginning of the HLB epidemic was delayed for 10 months in E1 compared with appearance of the first diseased tree in E2 but wasn't affected by different local strategies in either experiment. After 60 (E1) and 53 (E2) months, the HLB incidence and progress rates were not affected by different frequencies of local inoculum reduction in either experiment, and were different only in plots with and without local vector control in E2. In E1, the disease incidence was reduced by 90% and the disease progress rate by 50% in plots both with and without vector control. These reductions were explained by smaller psyllid populations and lower frequency of bacterialiferous psyllids in E1 compared with E2. Annual productivity increased over time in E1, as expected for young plantings, but remained stable or decreased in E2. These results confirm that immigration of bacterialiferous ACP vectors plays a critical role in HLB epidemics and suggest that area-wide inoculum reduction and ACP management strongly affect HLB control.

The Effect of Horsfall-Barratt Category Size on the Accuracy and Reliability of Estimates of Pecan Scab Severity.

Pecan scab (Fusicladium effusum) is a destructive pecan disease. Disease assessments may be made using interval-scale-based methods or estimates of severity to the nearest percent area diseased. To explore the effects of rating method-Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale estimates versus nearest percent estimates (NPEs)-on the accuracy and reliability of severity estimates over different actual pecan scab severity ranges on fruit valves, raters assessed two cohorts of images with actual area (0 to 6, 6+ to 25%, and 25+ to 75%) diseased. Mean estimated disease within each actual disease severity range varied substantially. Means estimated by NPE within each actual disease severity range were not necessarily good predictors of the H-B scale estimate at <25% severity. H-B estimates by raters most often placed severity in the wrong category compared with actual disease. Measures of bias, accuracy, precision, and agreement using Lin's concordance correlation depended on the range of actual severity, with improvements increasing with actual disease severity category (from 0 to 6 through 25+ to 75%); however, the improvement was unaffected by the H-B assessments. Bootstrap analysis indicated that NPEs provided either equally good or more accurate and precise estimate of disease compared with the H-B scale at severities of 25+ to 75%. Inter-rater reliability using NPEs was greater at 25+ to 75% actual disease severity compared with using the H-B scale. Using NPEs compared with the H-B scale will more often result in more precise and accurate estimates of pecan scab severity, particularly when estimating actual disease severities of 25+ to 75%.

Comparison of FTIR spectra between Huanglongbing (citrus greening) and other citrus maladies.

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy has the ability to quickly identify the presence of specific carbohydrates in plant materials. The presence of the disease huanglongbing (HLB) in the leaves of infected citrus plants has a distinctive spectrum that can be used to distinguish an infected plant from a healthy plant. However, many citrus diseases display similar visible symptoms and are of concern to citrus growers. In this study several citrus diseases (citrus leaf rugose virus, citrus tristeza virus, citrus psorosis virus, and Xanthomonas axonopodis ) and nutrient deficiencies (iron, copper, zinc, manganese, and magnesium) were compared with HLB using FTIR spectroscopy to determine if the spectra alone can be used to identify plants that are infected with HLB instead of another disease. The results indicate that the spectra of some diseases and deficiencies more closely resemble those of apparently healthy plants and some share the carbohydrate transformation that has been seen in the spectra of HLB-infected plants.

Current epidemiological understanding of citrus Huanglongbing .

Huanglongbing (HLB) is the most destructive citrus pathosystem worldwide. Previously known primarily from Asia and Africa, it was introduced into the Western Hemisphere in 2004. All infected commercial citrus industries continue to decline owing to inadequate current control methods. HLB increase and regional spatial spread, related to vector populations, are rapid compared with other arboreal pathosystems. Disease dynamics result from multiple simultaneous spatial processes, suggesting that psyllid vector transmission is a continuum from local area to very long distance. Evolutionarily, HLB appears to have originated as an insect endosymbiont that has moved into plants. Lack of exposure of citrus to the pathogen prior to approximately 100 years ago did not provide sufficient time for development of resistance. A prolonged incubation period and regional dispersal make eradication nonviable. Multiple asymptomatic infections per symptomatic tree, incomplete systemic distribution within trees, and prolonged incubation period make detection difficult and greatly complicate disease control.

Effects of radiation (Cobalt-60) on the elimination of Brevipalpus phoenicis (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) Cardinium endosymbiont.

Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes) (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) is a polyphagous mite with worldwide distribution and it is also a vector of several plant viruses. In citrus, B. phoenicis transmits Citrus leprosis virus (CiLV), the causal agent of leprosis, a disease that costs millions of dollars per year for its prevention and control. Brevipalpus phoenicis mites reproduce through thelytokous parthenogenesis, producing haploid females. This characteristic is attributable to the presence of an endosymbiont bacterium of the genus Cardinium; however, very little is known about the biological and ecological implications of the presence of this endosymbiont in Brevipalpus mites. In order to investigate the role of Cardinium in the transmission of CiLV to citrus plants, our goal was to eliminate the bacterium from the mite. We assessed the effectiveness of different doses of radiation from a Cobalt-60 source to cure B. phoenicis populations from Cardinium sp. The efficiency of irradiation on the elimination of the endosymbiont was determined by counting the number of females and males obtained in the F(1) generation after irradiation and confirming the presence of the endosymbiont by PCR. Both radiation treatments influenced the oviposition period and the number of eggs laid by irradiated females. Also, irradiation eliminated the Cardinium endosymbiont and increased the number of males in progeny of the exposed populations. Although macroscopic morphological abnormalities were not observed among the treated mites, the mortality was higher compared to the non-irradiated control group.

Analysis of Fire Blight Shoot Infection Epidemics on Apple.

Fire blight incidence and spread of the shoot blight phase of the disease was studied in four apple cultivars in replicated blocks over 4 years (1994 to 1997). Cv. York was highly susceptible, followed by 'Fuji' and 'Golden Delicious,' which were moderately susceptible, and 'Liberty,' which was least susceptible. On York, the first appearance of shoot blight was within 48 h of its predicted appearance according to the Maryblyt model in 3 of the 4 years studied. Shoot blight epidemics in York in 1995 and 1996, and Fuji in 1995, were best described with a logistic model that showed apparent infection rates ranging from 0.05 to 0.20, indicating a low to moderately high rate of disease increase. The spatial positions (row and column) of all infected plants in each subplot were recorded on plot maps on each sampling date. The binomial and ß-binomial distributions were fit to the data to test for spatial aggregation of disease incidence for each cultivar plot. Maximum likelihood estimation was possible for 92 (43.6%) of the 211 data sets subjected to this analysis. Of these, 35 data sets were better fit by the ß-binomial distribution than the binomial distribution. The binary power law was used to characterize the relationship between the variance among quadrats within each plot to the variance expected for that plot given the observed level of disease incidence. The binary power law provided an excellent fit to the full data set and to nearly all of the subsets and, with b > 1, indicated that heterogeneity changed systematically with disease incidence. A covariance analysis was conducted to determine the effect of the factors 'year,' 'cultivar,' 'orchard plot,' and 'observation date' on the intercept and slope parameters of the binary power law. In general, plot followed by year had the greatest impact on parameter estimates and is an indication that location and seasonal factors impact heterogeneity of disease, although the specifics could not be ascertained from this study. Ordinary runs analysis was used to analyze the pattern of diseased trees within rows and detected significant nonrandom patterns of disease incidence in 63.5% of the orchard plots over the 4-year study. From these data sets, 68.7% had significantly fewer runs, particularly at disease incidences greater than 0.1. The fewer-than-expected runs at incidences greater than 0.10 provides strong evidence of localized spread.

Effects of temperature, storage period and the number of individuals on the detection of the false spider mite Cardinium endosymbiont.

Cardinium have been found as endosymbionts of Brevipalpus phoenicis, the mite vector of the Citrus leprosis virus. With the long-term objective being to understand the mechanisms of plant-virus-vector interactions, we evaluated the different storage conditions and periods, as well as the number of mites needed for PCR-amplification of such endosymbionts, making it possible to collect mites in different geographical regions without prolonged storage compromising subsequent analyses.

Detection and Characterization of a New Strain of Citrus Canker Bacteria from Key/Mexican Lime and Alemow in South Florida.

In the Wellington and Lake Worth areas of Palm Beach County, FL, citrus canker appeared on Key/Mexican lime (Citrus aurantiifolia) and alemow (C. macrophylla) trees over a period of about 6 to 7 years before detection, but nearby canker-susceptible citrus, such as grapefruit (C. × paradisi) and sweet orange (C. sinensis), were unaffected. Colonies of the causal bacterium, isolated from leaf, stem, and fruit lesions, appeared similar to the Asiatic group of strains of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri (Xac-A) on the nutrient agar plate, but the growth on lima bean agar slants was less mucoid. The bacterium produced erumpent, pustule-like lesions of typical Asiatic citrus canker syndrome after inoculation into Key/Mexican lime, but brownish, flat, and necrotic lesions on the leaves of Duncan grapefruit, Madame Vinous sweet orange, sour orange (C. aurantium), citron (C. medica), Orlando tangelo (C. reticulata × C. × paradisi), and trifoliate orange (Poncirus trifoliata). The bacterium did not react with the Xac-A specific monoclonal antibody A1 using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and could not be detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assays using primers selected for Xac-A. DNA reassociation analysis confirmed that the pathogen, designated as Xac-AW, was more closely related to Xac-A and Xac-A* strains than X. axonopodis pv. aurantifolii or the citrus bacterial spot pathogen (X. axonopodis pv. citrumelo). The strain can be easily differentiated from Xac-A and Xac-A* using ELISA, PCR-based tests, fatty acid analysis, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of genomic DNA, and host specificity.

Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri: factors affecting successful eradication of citrus canker.

UNLABELLED: SUMMARY Taxonomic status: Bacteria, Proteobacteria, gamma subdivision, Xanthomodales, Xanthomonas group, axonopodis DNA homology group, X. axonopodis pv. citri (Hasse) Vauterin et al. Microbiological properties: Gram negative, slender, rod-shaped, aerobic, motile by a single polar flagellum, produces slow growing, non-mucoid colonies in culture, ecologically obligate plant parasite. HOST RANGE: Causal agent of Asiatic citrus canker on most Citrus spp. and close relatives of Citrus in the family Rutaceae. Disease symptoms: Distinctively raised, necrotic lesions on fruits, stems and leaves. EPIDEMIOLOGY: Bacteria exude from lesions during wet weather and are disseminated by splash dispersal at short range, windblown rain at medium to long range and human assisted movement at all ranges. Crop loss: Severe infections cause defoliation, blemished fruit, premature fruit drop, die-back of twigs and general debilitation of the tree. Distribution: Citrus canker is not present in all subtropical to tropical regions of citriculture in the world, so considerable regulatory efforts are expended to prevent the introduction and spread of X. axonopodis pv. citri into areas in the Americas, Australia and elsewhere, with climates conducive to the disease. IMPORTANCE: Limited strategies exist for suppression of citrus canker on more susceptible cultivars. Blemished fruit are unmarketable and exposed fruit are restricted in market access. The economic impact of loss of markets is much greater than that from yield and quality reductions of the crop. USEFUL WEBSITES: http://doacs.state.fl.us/canker, http://www.apsnet.org/education/lessonsplantpath/citruscanker/top.htm, http://www.apsnet.org/online/feature/citruscanker/, http://www.plantmanagementnetwork.org/pub/php/review/citruscanker/, http://www.abecitrus.com.br/fundecitrus.html, http://www.biotech.ufl.edu/PlantContainment/canker.htm, http://www.aphis.usda.gov/oa/ccanker/.

Spatial and temporal analyses of citrus sudden death as a tool to generate hypotheses concerning its etiology.

ABSTRACT Citrus sudden death (CSD), a new disease of unknown etiology that affects sweet orange grafted on Rangpur lime, was visually monitored for 14 months in 41 groves in Brazil. Ordinary runs analysis of CSD-symptomatic trees indicated a departure from randomness of symptomatic trees status among immediately adjacent trees mainly within rows. The binomial index of dispersion (D) and the intraclass correlation (k) for various quadrat sizes suggested aggregation of CSD-symptomatic trees for almost all plots within the quadrat sizes tested. Estimated parameters of the binary form of Taylor's power law provided an overall measure of aggregation of CSD-symptomatic trees for all quadrat sizes tested. Aggregation in each plot was dependent on disease incidence. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of proximity patterns suggested that aggregation often existed among quadrats of various sizes up to three lag distances; however, significant lag positions discontinuous from main proximity patterns were rare, indicating a lack of spatial association among discrete foci. Some asymmetry was also detected for some spatial autocorrelation proximity patterns, indicating that within-row versus across-row distributions are not necessarily equivalent. These results were interpreted to mean that the cause of the disease was most likely biotic and its dissemination was common within a local area of influence that extended to approximately six trees in all directions, including adjacent trees. Where asymmetry was indicated, this area of influence was somewhat elliptical. Longer-distance patterns were not detected within the confines of the plot sizes tested. Annual rates of CSD progress based on the Gompertz model ranged from 0.37 to 2.02. Numerous similarities were found between the spatial patterns of CSD and Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) described in the literature, both in the presence of the aphid vector, Toxoptera citricida. CSD differs from CTV in that symptoms occur in sweet orange grafted on Rangpur lime. Based on the symptoms of CSD and on its spatial and temporal patterns, our hypothesis is that CSD may be caused by a similar but undescribed pathogen such as a virus and probably vectored by insects such as aphids by similar spatial processes to those affecting CTV.