Impact of Diagnostic Delays on Lung Cancer Survival Outcomes: A Population Study of the US SEER-Medicare Database.

PURPOSE: Time from diagnosis to treatment has been associated with worse survival outcomes in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, little is known about the impact of delay in time to diagnosis. We aimed to evaluate the impact of time from radiographic suspicion to histologic diagnosis on survival outcomes using the US SEER-Medicare population database. METHODS: We identified patients from the SEER-Medicare data set diagnosed with any stage NSCLC between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2015, who received stage-appropriate treatment and had a computed tomography scan within 1 year of diagnosis. Time to confirmation was determined as the interval between most recent computed tomography imaging and date of histologic diagnosis. Our primary outcome was overall survival (OS). RESULTS: In total, 10,824 eligible patients were identified. The median time to confirmation was 20 (range 0-363) days. Using multivariate Cox regression models, longer time to confirmation was associated with improved OS in all comers driven by stage IV patients after adjustment for age, sex, diagnosis year, histology, and comorbidity index. In a separate landmark analysis excluding patients deceased within 6 months of diagnosis, the association between time to diagnosis and survival was no longer evident. CONCLUSION: Time to confirmation of NSCLC was inversely associated with OS in this US SEER population study. This association was lost when patients deceased within 6 months of diagnosis were excluded, suggesting that retrospective registry-claims databases may not be the optimal data source to study time to diagnosis as a quality metric because of the unaccounted confounding effects of tumor behavior. Prospective evaluations of clinically enriched data sources may better serve this purpose.

Effect of Clinical Trial Participation on Costs to Payers in Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: The costs associated with clinical trial enrollment remain uncertain. We hypothesized that trial participation is associated with decreased total direct medical costs to health care payers in metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we linked clinical data from electronic medical records to sociodemographic data from a cancer registry and claims data from Medicare and two private insurance plans. We used a difference-in-difference analysis to estimate mean per patient per month total direct medical costs for patients enrolled on a second-line (2L) trial versus patients receiving standard-of-care 2L systemic therapy. RESULTS: Among 70 eligible patients, the difference-in-difference of mean per patient per month total direct medical costs between 2L trial participants and nonparticipants was -$6,663 (P = .01), for a mean savings of $45,308 per patient for the duration of 2L trial therapy. In a secondary analysis by primary insurance payer, this difference-in-difference was -$5,526 (P = .26) for patients with commercial insurance and -$7,432 (P = .01) for patients with Medicare. CONCLUSION: Participation in a 2L trial was associated with a $6,663 per month cost savings to health care payers for the duration of trial participation. Further studies are necessary to elucidate differences in cost savings from trial participation for Medicare and commercial payers. If confirmed, these results support health care payer investment in programs to improve clinical trial access and enrollment.

Impact of Clinical Trial Participation on Survival of Patients with Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of clinical trial participation on overall survival is unclear. We hypothesized that enrollment in a therapeutic drug clinical trial is associated with longer overall survival in patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We linked electronic medical record and Washington State cancer registry data to identify patients with metastatic NSCLC diagnosed between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2015 who received treatment at a National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center. The exposure was trial enrollment. The primary outcome was overall survival, defined as the date of second-line treatment initiation to date of death or last follow-up. We used a conditional landmark analysis starting at the date of second-line treatment initiation and propensity scores with inverse probability of treatment weighting to estimate the association between trial enrollment and survival. RESULTS: Of 215 patients, 40 (19%) participated in a second-line trial. Trial participants were more likely to be never smokers (45% vs 27%), have a good performance status (88% vs 77%) and have EGFR (48% vs 14%) and ALK mutations (8% vs 5%) than nonparticipants. Trial participants had similar overall survival to nonparticipants (HR 1.05; 95% CI, 0.72, 1.53; p = 0.81) after adjusting for sociodemographic and disease characteristics. CONCLUSION: Accounting for the immortal time bias and selection bias, trial participation does not appear detrimental to survival. This finding may be reassuring to patients and supports programs and policies to improve clinical trial access.

Experiences along the diagnostic pathway for patients with advanced lung cancer in the USA: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with lung cancer are diagnosed at advanced stages. However, the advent of oral targeted therapies has improved the prognosis of many patients with lung cancer. PURPOSE: We aimed to understand the diagnostic experiences of patients with advanced lung cancer with oncogenic mutations. METHODS: Qualitative interviews were conducted with patients with advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer with oncogenic alterations. Patients were recruited from online support groups within the USA. Interviews were conducted remotely or in person. Analysis used an iterative inductive and deductive process. Themes were mapped to the Model for Pathways to Treatment. RESULTS: 40 patients (12 male and 28 female) with a median age of 48 were included. We identified nine distinct themes. During the 'patient interval', individuals became concerned about symptoms, but often attributed them to other causes. Prolonged or more severe symptoms prompted care-seeking. During the 'primary care interval', doctors initially treated for illnesses other than cancer. Discovery of an imaging abnormality was a turning point in diagnostic pathways. Occasionally, severity of symptoms prompted patients to seek emergency care. During the 'secondary care interval', obtaining tissue samples was pivotal in confirming diagnosis. Delays in accessing oncology care sometimes led to patient distress. Obtaining genetic testing was crucial in directing patients to receive targeted treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Patients experienced multiple different routes to their diagnosis. Some patients perceived delays, inefficiencies and lack of coordination, which could be distressing. Shifting the stage of diagnosis of lung cancer to optimise the impact of targeted therapies will require concerted efforts in early detection.

Access to Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors and Survival in Patients with Advanced EGFR+ and ALK+ Positive Non-small-cell Lung Cancer Treated in the Real-World.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the proportion of patients with advanced epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) positive non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who receive tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) in the real-world, predictors of TKI use, and impact of TKI therapy on overall survival (OS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified patients diagnosed with stage IV EGFR+ and ALK+ positive NSCLC from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2018, in the Cancer Surveillance System registry and linked their records to Medicare and commercial insurance claims. We reported the proportions of patients with 1 or more TKI claims versus no TKI claims and used logistic regression to identify predictors of TKI use. We evaluated the effect of TKI use on OS by applying extended Cox proportional hazard models with TKI use as a time-dependent exposure and landmark analysis in a subcohort (N = 105). We adjusted Cox models for confounding patient characteristics. RESULTS: Of 117 eligible patients (median age = 69; 62% women; 88% EGFR+), 21 (17.9%) had no TKI claims. Diagnosis in 2015 to 2018 was independently associated with lower likelihood of TKI therapy compared with 2010 to 2014 (adjusted odds ratio, 0.29; P = .020). TKI use was associated with longer OS in a multivariate extended Cox model and in the landmark analysis (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33; 0.99; P = .048; adjusted HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.30; 1.00; P = .050). CONCLUSION: Approximately 18% of patients with advanced EGFR+ and ALK+ positive NSCLC do not receive TKIs and have inferior survival. Further studies need to investigate barriers of access to TKIs in biomarker-selected patients.

Out-of-Pocket Costs for Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors and Patient Outcomes in EGFR- and ALK-Positive Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: We investigated the association of out-of-pocket (OOP) costs for tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) with overall survival (OS) in epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)- and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We secondarily investigated associations of TKI OOP costs with TKI adherence, duration of therapy (DOT), and TKI discontinuation. METHODS: We used the Hutchinson Institute for Cancer Outcomes Research registry-claims database to identify patients with stage IV EGFR- or ALK-positive NSCLC; ≥ 1 claims for EGFR or ALK TKIs; and ≥ 3-month survival from TKI initiation. We estimated the average monthly TKI OOP costs per patient up to 3 months from TKI initiation, categorizing patients into quartiles of TKI OOP costs (Q1 < Q2 < Q3 < Q4). We conducted landmark analysis at 3 months from TKI initiation to compare Q1-3 v Q4 TKI OOP costs with respect to OS, TKI DOT, TKI adherence, and TKI discontinuation. RESULTS: Seventy-eight and twenty-seven patients comprised the Q1-3 and Q4 groups, respectively. Median monthly TKI OOP costs were $1,431 (Q1-3) v $2,888 (Q4). Compared with Q1-3, Q4 patients had inferior OS (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.85; [95% CI, 1.11 to 3.10], similar TKI DOT (adjusted HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.53 to 2.15), decreased TKI adherence (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.28; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.76), and higher TKI discontinuation rate (adjusted OR, 8.75; 95% CI, 2.59 to 29.52). CONCLUSION: Among patients with advanced EGFR- and ALK-positive NSCLC, higher TKI OOP costs are associated with decreased TKI adherence, a higher likelihood of TKI discontinuation, and inferior survival.

Complexities of Next-Generation Sequencing in Solid Tumors: Case Studies.

With the promise and potential of clinical next-generation sequencing for tumor and germline testing to impact treatment and outcomes of patients with cancer, there are also risks of oversimplification, misinterpretation, and missed opportunities. These issues risk limiting clinical benefit and, at worst, perpetuating false conclusions that could lead to inappropriate treatment selection, avoidable toxicity, and harm to patients. This report presents 5 case studies illustrating challenges and opportunities in clinical next-generation sequencing interpretation and clinical application in solid tumor oncologic care. First is a case that dissects the origin of an ATM mutation as originating from a hematopoietic clone rather than the tumor. Second is a case illustrating the potential for tumor sequencing to suggest germline variants associated with a hereditary cancer syndrome. Third are 2 cases showing the potential for variant reclassification of a germline variant of uncertain significance when considered alongside family history and tumor sequencing results. Finally, we describe a case illustrating challenges with using microsatellite instability for predicting tumor response to immune checkpoint inhibitors. The common theme of the case studies is the importance of examining clinical context alongside expert review and interpretation, which together highlight an expanding role for contextual examination and multidisciplinary expert review through molecular tumor boards.

A Pilot Study of Atezolizumab Plus Hypofractionated Image Guided Radiation Therapy for the Treatment of Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: Preclinical data and subset analyses from immunotherapy clinical trials indicate that prior radiation therapy was associated with better progression-free survival and overall survival when combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. We present a prospective study of hypofractionated image guided radiation therapy (HIGRT) to a single site of metastatic disease concurrently with atezolizumab in patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients meeting eligibility criteria received 1200 mg of atezolizumab intravenously every 3 weeks with concurrent 3- or 5-fraction HIGRT starting no later than the second cycle. The 3-fraction regimen employed a minimum of 8 Gy per fraction compared with 6 Gy for the 5-fraction regimen. Imaging was obtained every 12 weeks to assess response. RESULTS: From October 2015 to February 2017, 12 patients were enrolled in the study (median age 64; range, 55-77 years). The best response by the Response Evaluation in Solid Tumors criteria was partial response in 3 and stable disease in 3, for a disease control rate of 50%. Five patients had a grade 3 immune-related adverse event, including choreoretinitis (n = 1), pneumonitis (n = 1), transaminitis (n = 1), fatigue (n = 1), and peripheral neuropathy (n = 1). The median progression-free survival was 2.3 months, and the median overall survival was 6.9 months (range, 0.4-not reached). There was no clear association between peripheral blood T cell repertoire characteristics at baseline, PD-L1, or tumor mutations and response or outcome. One long-term survivor exhibited oligoclonal T cell populations in a baseline tumor biopsy that were consistently detected in peripheral blood over the entire course of the study. CONCLUSIONS: HIGRT plus atezolizumab resulted in an overall response rate of 25% and disease control rate of 50% in this pilot study. The incidence of grade 3 adverse events was similar to that of atezolizumab alone. Alhough it was a pilot study with limited sample size, the results generated hypotheses worthy of further investigation.

Intensity modulated radiation therapy following lumpectomy in early-stage breast cancer: Patterns of use and cost consequences among Medicare beneficiaries.

PURPOSE: In 2013, the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) issued a Choosing Wisely recommendation against the routine use of intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for whole breast irradiation. We evaluated IMRT use and subsequent impact on Medicare expenditure in the period immediately preceding this recommendation to provide a baseline measure of IMRT use and associated cost consequences. METHODS AND MATERIALS: SEER records for women ≥66 years with first primary diagnosis of Stage I/II breast cancer (2008-2011) were linked with Medicare claims (2007-2012). Eligibility criteria included lumpectomy within 6 months of diagnosis and radiotherapy within 6 months of lumpectomy. We evaluated IMRT versus conventional radiotherapy (cRT) use overall and by SEER registry (12 sites). We used generalized estimating equations logit models to explore adjusted odds ratios (OR) for associations between clinical, sociodemographic, and health services characteristics and IMRT use. Mean costs were calculated from Medicare allowable costs in the year after diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 13,037 women, mean age was 74.4, 50.5% had left-sided breast cancer, and 19.8% received IMRT. IMRT use varied from 0% to 52% across SEER registries. In multivariable analysis, left-sided breast cancer (OR 1.75), living in a big metropolitan area (OR 2.39), living in a census tract with ≤$90,000 median income (OR 1.75), neutral or favorable local coverage determination (OR 3.86, 1.72, respectively), and free-standing treatment facility (OR 3.49) were associated with receipt of IMRT (p<0.001). Mean expenditure in the year after diagnosis was $8,499 greater (p<0.001) among women receiving IMRT versus cRT. CONCLUSION: We found highly variable use of IMRT and higher expenditure in the year after diagnosis among women treated with IMRT (vs. cRT) with early-stage breast cancer and Medicare insurance. Our findings suggest a considerable opportunity to reduce treatment variation and cost of care while improving alignment between practice and clinical guidelines.

Cross-registry neural domain adaptation to extract mutational test results from pathology reports.

OBJECTIVE: We study the performance of machine learning (ML) methods, including neural networks (NNs), to extract mutational test results from pathology reports collected by cancer registries. Given the lack of hand-labeled datasets for mutational test result extraction, we focus on the particular use-case of extracting Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor mutation results in non-small cell lung cancers. We explore the generalization of NNs across different registries where our goals are twofold: (1) to assess how well models trained on a registry's data port to test data from a different registry and (2) to assess whether and to what extent such models can be improved using state-of-the-art neural domain adaptation techniques under different assumptions about what is available (labeled vs unlabeled data) at the target registry site. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected data from two registries: the Kentucky Cancer Registry (KCR) and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FH) Cancer Surveillance System. We combine NNs with adversarial domain adaptation to improve cross-registry performance. We compare to other classifiers in the standard supervised classification, unsupervised domain adaptation, and supervised domain adaptation scenarios. RESULTS: The performance of ML methods varied between registries. To extract positive results, the basic convolutional neural network (CNN) had an F1 of 71.5% on the KCR dataset and 95.7% on the FH dataset. For the KCR dataset, the CNN F1 results were low when trained on FH data (Positive F1: 23%). Using our proposed adversarial CNN, without any labeled data, we match the F1 of the models trained directly on each target registry's data. The adversarial CNN F1 improved when trained on FH and applied to KCR dataset (Positive F1: 70.8%). We found similar performance improvements when we trained on KCR and tested on FH reports (Positive F1: 45% to 96%). CONCLUSION: Adversarial domain adaptation improves the performance of NNs applied to pathology reports. In the unsupervised domain adaptation setting, we match the performance of models that are trained directly on target registry's data by using source registry's labeled data and unlabeled examples from the target registry.

Long term follow-up of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) investigating early positron emission tomography (PET) scan as a predictor of outcome.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is effective in improving survival of resectable NSCLC. Based on findings in the adjuvant and metastatic setting, FDG positron emission tomography (PET) scans may offer early prognostic or predictive value after one cycle of induction chemotherapy. METHODS: In this phase II non-randomized trial, patients with AJCC version 6 stage IB to IIIB operable NSCLC were treated with 3 cycles of cisplatin and pemetrexed neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Patients underwent FDG-PET scanning prior to and 18 to 21 days after the first cycle of chemotherapy. Investigators caring for patients were blinded to results, unless the scans showed evidence of disease progression. FDG-PET response was defined prospectively as a ≥ 20% decrease in the SUV of the primary lesion. RESULTS: Between October 2005 and February 2010, 25 patients enrolled. Fifty two percent were female, 88% white, and median age was 62 years. Histology was divided into adenocarcinoma 66%, not otherwise specified (NOS) 16%, squamous cell 12%, and large cell 4%. Stage distribution was: 16% IB, 4% IIB, and 79% IIIA. Treatment was well tolerated and only one patient had a grade 4 toxicity. The median follow up was 95 months. The 5 year progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for the entire population were 54 and 67%, respectively. Eighteen patients had a baseline FDG-PET scan and a repeat scan at day 18-21 available for comparison. Ten patients (56%) were considered metabolic responders on the day 18-21 FDG-PET scan. Responders had a 5 year PFS and OS of 60 and 70%, respectively, while the percentage for non-responders was 63 and 75% (p = 0.96 and 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: This phase II trial did not demonstrate that a PET scan after one cycle of chemotherapy can predict survival outcomes of patients with NSCLC treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00227539 registered September 28th, 2005.

Survival Gains from First-Line Systemic Therapy in Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in the U.S., 1990-2015: Progress and Opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 190,000 Americans are diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) annually, and about half have metastatic (Stage IV) disease. These patients have historically had poor survival prognosis, but several new therapies introduced since 2000 provide options for improved outcomes. The objectives of this study were to quantify survival gains from 1990, when best supportive care (BSC) only was standard, to 2015 and to estimate the impact of expanded use of systemic therapies in clinically appropriate patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed a simulation model to estimate survival gains for patients with metastatic NSCLC from 1990-2015. Survival estimates were derived from major clinical trials and extrapolated to a lifetime horizon. Proportions of patients receiving available therapies were derived from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and a commercial treatment registry. We also estimated gains in overall survival (OS) in scenarios in which systemic therapy use increased by 10% and 30% relative to current use. RESULTS: From 1990-2015, one-year survival proportion increased by 14.1% and mean per-patient survival improved by 4.2 months (32,700 population life years). Increasing treated patients by 10% or 30% increased OS by 5.1 months (39,700 population life years) and 6.9 months (53,800 population life years), respectively. CONCLUSION: Although survival remains poor in metastatic NSCLC relative to other common cancers, meaningful progress in per-patient and population-level outcomes has been realized over the past 25 years. These advances can be improved even further by increasing use of systemic therapies in the substantial proportion of patients who are suitable for treatment yet who currently receive BSC only. The Oncologist 2017;22:304-310 IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Approximately 93,500 Americans are diagnosed with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) annually. Historically, these patients have had poor survival prognosis, but newer therapies provide options for improved outcomes. This simulation modeling study quantified metastatic NSCLC survival gains from 1990-2015. Over this period, the one-year survival proportion and mean per-patient survival increased by 14.1% and 4.2 months, respectively. Though metastatic NSCLC survival remains poor, the past 25 years have brought meaningful gains. Additional gains could be realized by increasing systemic therapy use in the substantial proportion of patients who are suitable for treatment, yet currently receive only supportive care.

The Clinical and Economic Impacts of Skeletal-Related Events Among Medicare Enrollees With Prostate Cancer Metastatic to Bone.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 40% of men diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer experience one or more skeletal-related events (SREs), defined as a pathological fracture, spinal cord compression, or surgery or radiotherapy to the bone. Accurate assessment of their effect on survival, health care resource utilization (HCRU), and cost may elucidate the value of interventions to prevent SREs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Men older than age 65 years with prostate cancer and bone metastasis diagnosed between 2004 and 2009 were identified from linked Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare records. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk for death associated with SREs were calculated by using Cox regression. HCRU and costs (in 2013 U.S. dollars) were evaluated in a propensity score-matched cohort by using Poisson regression and Kaplan-Meier sample average estimators, respectively. RESULTS: Among 3,297 men with prostate cancer metastatic to bone, 40% experienced ≥1 SRE (median follow-up, 19 months). Compared with men who remained SRE-free, men with ≥1 SRE had a twofold higher risk for death (HR, 2.29; 95% CI, 2.09-2.51). Pathological fracture was associated with the highest risk for death (HR, 2.77; 95% CI, 2.38-3.23). Among men with ≥1 SRE, emergency department visits were twice as frequent (95% CI, 1.77-2.28) and hospitalizations were nearly four times as frequent (95% CI, 3.20-4.40). The attributable cost of ≥1 SRE was $21,191 (≥1 SRE: $72,454 [95% CI, $67,362-$76,958]; SRE-free: $51,263 [95% CI, $45,439-$56,100]). CONCLUSION: Among men with prostate cancer metastatic to bone, experiencing ≥1 SRE is associated with poorer survival, increased HCRU, and increased costs. These negative effects emphasize the importance of SRE prevention in this population.

The Value of Lung Cancer CT Screening: It Is All about Implementation.

Hospitals have been gradually implementing new lung cancer CT screening programs following the release of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force grade B recommendation to screen individuals at high risk for lung cancer. Policy makers have legitimately questioned whether adoption of CT screening in the community will reproduce the mortality benefits seen in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and whether the benefits of screening will justify the potentially high costs. Although three annual CT screening exams proved cost-effective for the patient population enrolled in the NLST, uncertainty still exists about whether CT screening will be cost-effective in practice. The value of CT screening will depend largely on the strategies used to implement it. This manuscript reviews the current reimbursement policies for CT screening and explains the relationship between implementation strategies and screening value on the basis of the NLST cost-effectiveness analysis and other published data. A subsequent discussion ensues about the potential implementation inefficiencies that can negatively affect the value of CT screening (e.g., selection of low-risk individuals for screening, inappropriate follow-up visits for screening-detected lung nodules, failure to offer smoking cessation interventions, and overuse of medical resources for clinically irrelevant incidental findings) and the actions that can be taken to mitigate these inefficiencies and increase the value of screening.

Projected Clinical, Resource Use, and Fiscal Impacts of Implementing Low-Dose Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening in Medicare.

PURPOSE: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently issued a national coverage determination that provides reimbursement for low-dose computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for enrollees age 55 to 77 years with ≥ 30-pack-year smoking history who currently smoke or quit in the last 15 years. The clinical, resource use, and fiscal impacts of this change in screening coverage policy remain uncertain. METHODS: We developed a simulation model to forecast the 5-year health outcome impacts of the CMS low-dose CT screening policy in Medicare compared with no screening. The model used data from the National Lung Screening Trial, CMS enrollment statistics and reimbursement schedules, and peer-reviewed literature. Outcomes included counts of screening examinations, patient cases of lung cancer detected, stage distribution, and total and per-enrollee per-month fiscal impact. RESULTS: Over 5 years, we project that low-dose CT screening will result in 10.7 million more low-dose CT scans, 52,000 more lung cancers detected, and increased overall expenditure of $6.8 billion ($2.22 per Medicare enrollee per month). The most fiscally impactful factors were the average cost-per-screening episode, proportion of enrollees eligible for screening, and cost of treating stage I lung cancer. CONCLUSION: Low-dose CT screening is expected to increase lung cancer diagnoses, shift stage at diagnosis toward earlier stages, and substantially increase Medicare expenditures over a 5-year time horizon. These projections can inform planning efforts by Medicare administrators, contracted health care providers, and other stakeholders.

Observational study designs for comparative effectiveness research: an alternative approach to close evidence gaps in head-and-neck cancer.

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has emerged as an approach to improve quality of care and patient outcomes while reducing healthcare costs by providing evidence to guide healthcare decisions. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have represented the ideal study design to support treatment decisions in head-and-neck (H&N) cancers. In RCTs, formal chance (randomization) determines treatment allocation, which prevents selection bias from distorting the measure of treatment effects. Despite this advantage, only a minority of patients qualify for inclusion in H&N RCTs, which limits the validity of their results to the broader H&N cancer patient population seen in clinical practice. Randomized controlled trials often do not address other knowledge gaps in the management of H&N cancer, including treatment comparisons for rare types of H&N cancers, monitoring of rare or late toxicity events (eg, osteoradionecrosis), or in some instances an RCT is simply not feasible. Observational studies, or studies in which treatment allocation occurs independently of investigators' choice or randomization, may address several of these gaps in knowledge, thereby complementing the role of RCTs. This critical review discusses how observational CER studies complement RCTs in generating the evidence to inform healthcare decisions and improve the quality of care and outcomes of H&N cancer patients. Review topics include a balanced discussion about the strengths and limitations of both RCT and observational CER study designs; a brief description of design and analytic techniques to handle selection bias in observational studies; examples of observational studies that inform current clinical practices and management of H&N cancers; and suggestions for relevant CER questions that could be addressed by an observational study design.

Moving beyond the national lung screening trial: discussing strategies for implementation of lung cancer screening programs.

The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) has sparked new interest in the adoption of lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). If adopted at a national level, LDCT screening may prevent approximately 18,000 lung cancer deaths per year, potentially constituting a high-value public health intervention. Before incorporating LDCT screening into practice, health care institutions need to consider the risks associated with LDCT screening and the impact of LDCT screening on health care costs, as well as other remaining areas of uncertainty, including the unknown cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening. This article will review the benefits and risks of LDCT screening in light of the results of the NLST and other randomized trials, it will discuss the additional health care costs associated with LDCT screening from the perspective of health care payers, and it will examine the published cost-effectiveness analyses of LDCT screening. A subsequent discussion highlights guideline recommendations for implementation strategies, the goals of which are to ensure that those eligible for LDCT screening derive the benefits while minimizing the risks of screening and avoiding an unnecessary escalation in screening-related costs. The article concludes by endorsing the use of LDCT screening in institutions capable of responsible implementation of screening in both medical and economic terms. The key elements of responsible implementation include the development of standardized screening practices, careful selection of screening candidates, and the creation of prospective registries that will mitigate current areas of uncertainty regarding LDCT screening.