Pre-analytical effects on whole transcriptome and targeted RNA sequencing analysis in cytology: The effects of prolonged time in storage of effusion specimens prior to preservation.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the pre-analytics of the molecular testing of cytology specimens, we studied the effects of time in refrigerator storage (4°C) of malignant effusions on RNA sequencing (RNAseq) results. METHODS: Ten effusion specimens were stored in a refrigerator (4°C) for different durations (day 0, 1, 4, and 7). All specimens were prepared as cytospins fixed in either Carnoy's solution or 95% ethanol (EtOH) and in an RNA preservative for a fresh frozen (FF) high-quality reference. Whole transcriptome (wt) and targeted (t)RNAseq of two multigene expression signatures were performed. We then compared transcript expression levels (including mutant allele fraction) according to pre-analytical variables using a concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and a mixed effect model. RESULTS: Sequencing results were mostly stable over increasing time in storage. Cytospins fixed in Carnoy's solution were more concordant with FF samples than cytospins fixed in 95% EtOH at all timepoints. This finding was consistent for both wtRNAseq (averages: day 0 CCC = 0.98 vs 0.91; day 7 CCC = 0.88 vs 0.78) and tRNAseq methods (averages: day 0 CCC = 0.98 vs 0.81; day 7 CCC = 0.98 vs 0.90). Cytospins fixed in Carnoy's solution did not show significant changes in expression over timepoints or between expression signatures, whereas 95% EtOH did. CONCLUSION: RNAseq can be accurately performed on effusion specimens after prolonged refrigerator storage. RNA extracted from scraped cytospin slides fixed in Carnoy's solution was marginally superior to 95% EtOH fixation, but either method had comparable analytic performance to high-quality FF RNA samples.

Changes in Surgical Management of the Axilla Over 11 Years - Report on More Than 1500 Breast Cancer Patients Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy on the Prospective I-SPY2 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Axillary surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is becoming less extensive. We evaluated the evolution of axillary surgery after NAC on the multi-institutional I-SPY2 prospective trial. METHODS: We examined annual rates of sentinel lymph node (SLN) surgery with resection of clipped node, if present), axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), and SLN and ALND in patients enrolled in I-SPY2 from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2021 by clinical N status at diagnosis and pathologic N status at surgery. Cochran-Armitage trend tests were calculated to evaluate patterns over time. RESULTS: Of 1578 patients, 973 patients (61.7%) had SLN-only, 136 (8.6%) had SLN and ALND, and 469 (29.7%) had ALND-only. In the cN0 group, ALND-only decreased from 20% in 2011 to 6.25% in 2021 (p = 0.0078) and SLN-only increased from 70.0% to 87.5% (p = 0.0020). This was even more striking in patients with clinically node-positive (cN+) disease at diagnosis, where ALND-only decreased from 70.7% to 29.4% (p < 0.0001) and SLN-only significantly increased from 14.6% to 56.5% (p < 0.0001). This change was significant across subtypes (HR-/HER2-, HR+/HER2-, and HER2+). Among pathologically node-positive (pN+) patients after NAC (n = 525) ALND-only decreased from 69.0% to 39.2% (p < 0.0001) and SLN-only increased from 6.9% to 39.2% (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Use of ALND after NAC has significantly decreased over the past decade. This is most pronounced in cN+ disease at diagnosis with an increase in the use of SLN surgery after NAC. Additionally, in pN+ disease after NAC, there has been a decrease in use of completion ALND, a practice pattern change that precedes results from clinical trials.

Breast Conservation Surgery and Mastectomy Have Similar Locoregional Recurrence After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: Results From 1462 Patients on the Prospective, Randomized I-SPY2 Trial.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) increases rates of successful breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in patients with breast cancer. However, some studies suggest that BCS after NAC may confer an increased risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR). We assessed LRR rates and locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) in patients enrolled on I-SPY2 (NCT01042379), a prospective NAC trial for patients with clinical stage II to III, molecularly high-risk breast cancer. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations between surgical procedure (BCS vs mastectomy) and LRFS adjusted for age, tumor receptor subtype, clinical T category, clinical nodal status, and residual cancer burden (RCB). In 1462 patients, surgical procedure was not associated with LRR or LRFS on either univariate or multivariate analysis. The unadjusted incidence of LRR was 5.4% after BCS and 7.0% after mastectomy, at a median follow-up time of 3.5 years. The strongest predictor of LRR was RCB class, with each increasing RCB class having a significantly higher hazard ratio for LRR compared with RCB 0 on multivariate analysis. Triple-negative receptor subtype was also associated with an increased risk of LRR (hazard ratio: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.8-4.6, P < 0.0001), regardless of the type of operation. In this large multi-institutional prospective trial of patients completing NAC, we found no increased risk of LRR or differences in LRFS after BCS compared with mastectomy. Tumor receptor subtype and extent of residual disease after NAC were significantly associated with recurrence. These data demonstrate that BCS can be an excellent surgical option after NAC for appropriately selected patients.

Predictors of success in establishing orthotopic patient-derived xenograft models of triple negative breast cancer.

Patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models of breast cancer are an effective discovery platform and tool for preclinical pharmacologic testing and biomarker identification. We established orthotopic PDX models of triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) from the primary breast tumors of patients prior to and following neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) while they were enrolled in the ARTEMIS trial (NCT02276443). Serial biopsies were obtained from patients prior to treatment (pre-NACT), from poorly responsive disease after four cycles of Adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (AC, mid-NACT), and in cases of AC-resistance, after a 3-month course of different experimental therapies and/or additional chemotherapy (post-NACT). Our study cohort includes a total of 269 fine needle aspirates (FNAs) from 217 women, generating a total of 62 PDX models (overall success-rate = 23%). Success of PDX engraftment was generally higher from those cancers that proved to be treatment-resistant, whether poorly responsive to AC as determined by ultrasound measurements mid-NACT (p = 0.063), RCB II/III status after NACT (p = 0.046), or metastatic relapse within 2 years of surgery (p = 0.008). TNBC molecular subtype determined from gene expression microarrays of pre-NACT tumors revealed no significant association with PDX engraftment rate (p = 0.877). Finally, we developed a statistical model predictive of PDX engraftment using percent Ki67 positive cells in the patient's diagnostic biopsy, positive lymph node status at diagnosis, and low volumetric reduction of the patient's tumor following AC treatment. This novel bank of 62 PDX models of TNBC provides a valuable resource for biomarker discovery and preclinical therapeutic trials aimed at improving neoadjuvant response rates for patients with TNBC.

Assessment of stained direct cytology smears of breast cancer for whole transcriptome and targeted messenger RNA sequencing.

BACKGROUND: Rather than surgical resection, cytologic specimens are often used as first-line clinical diagnostic procedures due to higher safety, speed, and cost-effectiveness. Archival diagnostic cytology slides containing cancer can be equivalent to tissue biopsies for DNA mutation testing, but the accuracy of transcriptomic profiling by RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is less understood. METHODS: This study compares the results from whole transcriptome RNA-seq and a targeted RNA-seq assay of stained cytology smears (CS) versus matched tumor tissue samples preserved fresh-frozen (FF) and processed as formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) sections. Cellular cytology scrapes from all 11 breast cancers were fixed and stained using three common protocols: Carnoy's (CS_C) or 95% ethanol (CS_E) fixation and then Papanicolaou stain or air-dried then methanol fixation and DiffQuik stain (CS_DQ). Agreement between samples was assessed using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Library yield for CS_DQ was too low, therefore it was not sequenced. The distributions of concordance correlation coefficient of gene expression levels in comparison to FF were comparable between CS_C and CS_E, but expression of genes enriched in stroma was lower in cytosmear samples than in FF or FFPE. Six signatures showed similar concordance to FF for all methods and two were slightly worse in CS_C and CS_E. Genomic signatures were highly concordant using targeted RNA-seq. The allele fraction of selected mutations calculated on cytosmear specimens was highly correlated with FF tissues using both RNA-seq methods. CONCLUSION: RNA can be reliably extracted from cytology smears and is suitable for transcriptome profiling or mutation detection, except for signatures of tumor stroma.

Molecular testing opportunities on cytology effusion specimens: the pre-analytic effects of various body fluid cytology preparation methods on RNA extraction quality and targeted sequencing.

INTRODUCTION: RNA sequencing (RNAseq) analysis is emerging as a clinical research or diagnostic approach for cytologic samples, but there is need for formal comparison of different sample preparation methods in the cytology laboratory to identify which pre-analytic methods could provide alternatives to formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) sections. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We prepared 13 malignant effusions (metastatic estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer) in the cytology laboratory using 6 routine cytologic methods: FFPE cell block, Carnoy's solution, 95% ethanol (EtOH), air-dried and Diff-Quik, ThinPrep, and SurePath preparations. Measurements of RNA quality, expression of 2 multigene expression signatures, molecular subtype, and 4 common activating mutation sites in each preparation were compared with fresh frozen (FF) cell pellet in RNA preservative using distribution of fragment length and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). RESULTS: The fraction of RNA fragments measuring 200 bases or more (DV200) were 24% higher from cytospins fixed in Carnoy's solution or 95% EtOH than DV200 from FFPE cell blocks. SurePath samples failed RNAseq quality control. There was high concordance of gene expression measurements with FF samples using cytospins fixed in Carnoy's solution, 95% EtOH, Diff-Quik (CCC = 0.829, 0.812, 0.760, respectively), or ThinPrep (CCC = 0.736), but lower using FFPE cell block (CCC = 0.564). The proportion of mutant transcripts was concordant between FF and any cytologic preparation methods. CONCLUSIONS: Cytospin preparations fixed with Carnoy's or 95% ETOH then Papanicolaou stained produced RNAseq results that were equivalent to FF samples and superior to FFPE cell block sections.

Residual cancer burden after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and long-term survival outcomes in breast cancer: a multicentre pooled analysis of 5161 patients.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have independently validated the prognostic relevance of residual cancer burden (RCB) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We used results from several independent cohorts in a pooled patient-level analysis to evaluate the relationship of RCB with long-term prognosis across different phenotypic subtypes of breast cancer, to assess generalisability in a broad range of practice settings. METHODS: In this pooled analysis, 12 institutes and trials in Europe and the USA were identified by personal communications with site investigators. We obtained participant-level RCB results, and data on clinical and pathological stage, tumour subtype and grade, and treatment and follow-up in November, 2019, from patients (aged ≥18 years) with primary stage I-III breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. We assessed the association between the continuous RCB score and the primary study outcome, event-free survival, using mixed-effects Cox models with the incorporation of random RCB and cohort effects to account for between-study heterogeneity, and stratification to account for differences in baseline hazard across cancer subtypes defined by hormone receptor status and HER2 status. The association was further evaluated within each breast cancer subtype in multivariable analyses incorporating random RCB and cohort effects and adjustments for age and pretreatment clinical T category, nodal status, and tumour grade. Kaplan-Meier estimates of event-free survival at 3, 5, and 10 years were computed for each RCB class within each subtype. FINDINGS: We analysed participant-level data from 5161 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy between Sept 12, 1994, and Feb 11, 2019. Median age was 49 years (IQR 20-80). 1164 event-free survival events occurred during follow-up (median follow-up 56 months [IQR 0-186]). RCB score was prognostic within each breast cancer subtype, with higher RCB score significantly associated with worse event-free survival. The univariable hazard ratio (HR) associated with one unit increase in RCB ranged from 1·55 (95% CI 1·41-1·71) for hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative patients to 2·16 (1·79-2·61) for the hormone receptor-negative, HER2-positive group (with or without HER2-targeted therapy; p<0·0001 for all subtypes). RCB score remained prognostic for event-free survival in multivariable models adjusted for age, grade, T category, and nodal status at baseline: the adjusted HR ranged from 1·52 (1·36-1·69) in the hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative group to 2·09 (1·73-2·53) in the hormone receptor-negative, HER2-positive group (p<0·0001 for all subtypes). INTERPRETATION: RCB score and class were independently prognostic in all subtypes of breast cancer, and generalisable to multiple practice settings. Although variability in hormone receptor subtype definitions and treatment across patients are likely to affect prognostic performance, the association we observed between RCB and a patient's residual risk suggests that prospective evaluation of RCB could be considered to become part of standard pathology reporting after neoadjuvant therapy. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute at the US National Institutes of Health.

Targeted RNAseq assay incorporating unique molecular identifiers for improved quantification of gene expression signatures and transcribed mutation fraction in fixed tumor samples.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to assess whether modifications to a customized targeted RNA sequencing (RNAseq) assay to include unique molecular identifiers (UMIs) that collapse read counts to their source mRNA counts would improve quantification of transcripts from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor tissue samples. The assay (SET4) includes signatures that measure hormone receptor and PI3-kinase related transcriptional activity (SETER/PR and PI3Kges), and measures expression of selected activating point mutations and key breast cancer genes. METHODS: Modifications included steps to introduce eight nucleotides-long UMIs during reverse transcription (RT) in bulk solution, followed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of labeled cDNA in droplets, with optimization of the polymerase enzyme and reaction conditions. We used Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to measure concordance, including precision (Rho) and accuracy (Bias), and nonparametric tests (Wilcoxon, Levene's) to compare the modified (NEW) SET4 assay to the original (OLD) SET4 assay and to whole transcriptome RNAseq using RNA from matched fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE samples from 12 primary breast cancers. RESULTS: The modified (NEW) SET4 assay measured single transcripts (p< 0.001) and SETER/PR (p=0.002) more reproducibly in technical replicates from FFPE samples. The modified SET4 assay was more precise for measuring single transcripts (Rho 0.966 vs 0.888, p< 0.01) but not multigene expression signatures SETER/PR (Rho 0.985 vs 0.968) or PI3Kges (Rho 0.985 vs 0.946) in FFPE, compared to FF samples. It was also more precise than wtRNAseq of FFPE for measuring transcripts (Rho 0.986 vs 0.934, p< 0.001) and SETER/PR (Rho 0.993 vs 0.915, p=0.004), but not PI3Kges (Rho 0.988 vs 0.945, p=0.051). Accuracy (Bias) was comparable between protocols. Two samples carried a PIK3CA mutation, and measurements of transcribed mutant allele fraction was similar in FF and FFPE samples and appeared more precise with the modified SET4 assay. Amplification efficiency (reads per UMI) was consistent in FF and FFPE samples, and close to the theoretically expected value, when the library size exceeded 400,000 aligned reads. CONCLUSIONS: Modifications to the targeted RNAseq protocol for SET4 assay significantly increased the precision of UMI-based and reads-based measurements of individual transcripts, multi-gene signatures, and mutant transcript fraction, particularly with FFPE samples.

Technical Validity of a Customized Assay of Sensitivity to Endocrine Therapy Using Sections from Fixed Breast Cancer Tissue.

BACKGROUND: We translated a multigene expression index to predict sensitivity to endocrine therapy for Stage II-III breast cancer (SET2,3) to hybridization-based expression assays of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue sections. Here we report the technical validity with FFPE samples, including preanalytical and analytical performance. METHODS: We calibrated SET2,3 from microarrays (Affymetrix U133A) of frozen samples to hybridization-based assays of FFPE tissue, using bead-based QuantiGene Plex (QGP) and slide-based NanoString (NS). The following preanalytical and analytical conditions were tested in controlled studies: replicates within and between frozen and fixed samples, age of paraffin blocks, homogenization of fixed sections versus extracted RNA, core biopsy versus surgically resected tumor, technical replicates, precision over 20 weeks, limiting dilution, linear range, and analytical sensitivity. Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to measure concordance between measurements. RESULTS: SET2,3 index was calibrated to use with QGP (CCC 0.94) and NS (CCC 0.93) technical platforms, and was validated in two cohorts of older fixed samples using QGP (CCC 0.72, 0.85) and NS (CCC 0.78, 0.78). QGP assay was concordant using direct homogenization of fixed sections versus purified RNA (CCC 0.97) and between core and surgical sample types (CCC 0.90), with 100% accuracy in technical replicates, 1-9% coefficient of variation over 20 weekly tests, linear range 3.0-11.5 (log2 counts), and analytical sensitivity ≥2.0 (log2 counts). CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of the novel SET2,3 assay was technically valid from fixed tumor sections of biopsy or resection samples using simple, inexpensive, hybridization methods, without the need for RNA purification.

The impact of RNA extraction method on accurate RNA sequencing from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues.

BACKGROUND: Utilization of RNA sequencing methods to measure gene expression from archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor samples in translational research and clinical trials requires reliable interpretation of the impact of pre-analytical variables on the data obtained, particularly the methods used to preserve samples and to purify RNA. METHODS: Matched tissue samples from 12 breast cancers were fresh frozen (FF) and preserved in RNAlater or fixed in formalin and processed as FFPE tissue. Total RNA was extracted and purified from FF samples using the Qiagen RNeasy kit, and in duplicate from FFPE tissue sections using three different kits (Norgen, Qiagen and Roche). All RNA samples underwent whole transcriptome RNA sequencing (wtRNAseq) and targeted RNA sequencing for 31 transcripts included in a signature of sensitivity to endocrine therapy. We assessed the effect of RNA extraction kit on the reliability of gene expression levels using linear mixed-effects model analysis, concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and differential analysis. All protein-coding genes in the wtRNAseq and three gene expression signatures for breast cancer were assessed for concordance. RESULTS: Despite variable quality of the RNA extracted from FFPE samples by different kits, all had similar concordance of overall gene expression from wtRNAseq between matched FF and FFPE samples (median CCC 0.63-0.66) and between technical replicates (median expression difference 0.13-0.22). More than half of genes were differentially expressed between FF and FFPE, but with low fold change (median |LFC| 0.31-0.34). Two out of three breast cancer signatures studied were highly robust in all samples using any kit, whereas the third signature was similarly discordant irrespective of the kit used. The targeted RNAseq assay was concordant between FFPE and FF samples using any of the kits (CCC 0.91-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The selection of kit to purify RNA from FFPE did not influence the overall quality of results from wtRNAseq, thus variable reproducibility of gene signatures probably relates to the reliability of individual gene selected and possibly to the algorithm. Targeted RNAseq showed promising performance for clinical deployment of quantitative assays in breast cancer from FFPE samples, although numerical scores were not identical to those from wtRNAseq and would require calibration.

SETER/PR: a robust 18-gene predictor for sensitivity to endocrine therapy for metastatic breast cancer.

There is a clinical need to predict sensitivity of metastatic hormone receptor-positive and HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer to endocrine therapy, and targeted RNA sequencing (RNAseq) offers diagnostic potential to measure both transcriptional activity and functional mutation. We developed the SETER/PR index to measure gene expression microarray probe sets that were correlated with hormone receptors (ESR1 and PGR) and robust to preanalytical and analytical influences. We tested SETER/PR index in biopsies of metastastic HR+/HER2- breast cancer against the treatment outcomes in 140 patients. Then we customized the SETER/PR assay to measure 18 informative, 10 reference transcripts, and sequence the ligand-binding domain (LBD) of ESR1 using droplet-based targeted RNAseq, and tested that in residual RNA from 53 patients. Higher SETER/PR index in metastatic samples predicted longer PFS and OS when patients received endocrine therapy as next treatment, even after adjustment for clinical-pathologic risk factors (PFS: HR 0.534, 95% CI 0.299 to 0.955, p = 0.035; OS: HR 0.315, 95% CI 0.157 to 0.631, p = 0.001). Mutated ESR1 LBD was detected in 8/53 (15%) of metastases, involving 1-98% of ESR1 transcripts (all had high SETER/PR index). A signature based on probe sets with good preanalytical and analytical performance facilitated our customization of an accurate targeted RNAseq assay to measure both phenotype and genotype of ER-related transcription. Elevated SETER/PR was associated with prolonged sensitivity to endocrine therapy in patients with metastatic HR+/HER2- breast cancer, especially in the absence of mutated ESR1 transcript.

Long-Term Prognostic Risk After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Associated With Residual Cancer Burden and Breast Cancer Subtype.

Purpose To determine the long-term prognosis in each phenotypic subset of breast cancer related to residual cancer burden (RCB) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone, or with concurrent human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-targeted treatment. Methods We conducted a pathologic review to measure the continuous RCB index (wherein pathologic complete response has RCB = 0; residual disease is categorized into three predefined classes of RCB index [RCB-I, RCB-II, and RCB-III]), and yp-stage of residual disease. Patients were prospectively observed for survival. Three patient cohorts received paclitaxel (T) followed by fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide (T/FAC): original development cohort (T/FAC-1), validation cohort (T/FAC-2), and independent validation cohort (T/FAC-3). Another validation cohort received FAC chemotherapy only, and a fifth cohort received concurrent trastuzumab (H) with sequential paclitaxel and fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide (FEC; H+T/FEC). Phenotypic subsets were defined by hormone receptor (HR) and HER2 status at diagnosis, classified as HR-positive/HER2-negative, HER2-positive (HR-negative/HER2-positive or HR-positive/HER2-positive), or triple receptor-negative. Relapse-free survival estimates were determined from Kaplan-Meier analysis and compared using the log-rank test. Results Five cohorts (T/FAC-1 [n = 219], T/FAC-2 [n = 262], T/FAC-3 [n = 342], FAC [n = 132], and H+T/FEC [n = 203]) had median event-free follow-up of 13.5, 9.1, 6.8, 16.4, and 7.1 years, respectively. Continuous RCB index was prognostic within each phenotypic subset, independent of other clinical-pathologic variables. RCB classes stratified prognostic risk overall, within each phenotypic subset, and within yp-stage categories. Estimates of 10-year relapse-free survival rates in the four RCB classes (pathologic complete response, RCB-I, RCB-II, and RCB-III) were 86%, 81%, 55%, and 23% for triple receptor-negative; 83%, 97%, 74%, and 52% for HR-positive/HER2-negative in the combined T/FAC cohorts; and 95%, 77%, 47%, and 21% in the H+T/FEC cohort. Conclusion RCB was prognostic for long-term survival after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in all three phenotypic subsets of breast cancer. Our institutional findings should be externally validated.

Relationship between Complete Pathologic Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Survival in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy reflects the cytotoxic efficacy of a drug, but patient survival is influenced by many other factors. The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between increased pCR rate and trial-level survival benefit in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We used bootstrap resampling from a neoadjuvant trial to simulate trials with different pCR rates. We used estimates from Adjuvant!Online to simulate trial populations with different baseline prognosis and estimated survival improvements associated with changes in pCR rate. RESULTS: Assuming that survival is similar for patients with pCR regardless of treatment arm, a linear relationship exists between increasing pCR rate and increasing recurrence-free survival (RFS). The slope is equal to the difference in survival between those with pCR and residual disease, which in turn is influenced by (i) the baseline prognosis of the trial population, (ii) interactions between prognostic variables and pCR, and (iii) the efficacy of the postneoadjuvant therapies. For example, if the pCR rates are 30% and 60% (OR = 3.5) and the 10-year RFS of the control arm is 0.74, the trial would require 3,550 patients per arm, whereas if the RFS is 0.54, the trial would require only 425 patients per arm to detect significant survival benefit. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a framework for understanding the relationship between pCR and overall survival benefit that can help inform the design of neoadjuvant trials aiming to demonstrate improved survival from a regimen that results in higher pCR rate.

Reproducibility of residual cancer burden for prognostic assessment of breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

The residual cancer burden index was developed as a method to quantify residual disease ranging from pathological complete response to extensive residual disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter-Pathologist reproducibility in the residual cancer burden index score and category, and in their long-term prognostic utility. Pathology slides and pathology reports of 100 cases from patients treated in a randomized neoadjuvant trial were reviewed independently by five pathologists. The size of tumor bed, average percent overall tumor cellularity, average percent of the in situ cancer within the tumor bed, size of largest axillary metastasis, and number of involved nodes were assessed separately by each pathologist and residual cancer burden categories were assigned to each case following calculation of the numerical residual cancer burden index score. Inter-Pathologist agreement in the assessment of the continuous residual cancer burden score and its components and agreement in the residual cancer burden category assignments were analyzed. The overall concordance correlation coefficient for the agreement in residual cancer burden score among pathologists was 0.931 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.908-0.949). Overall accuracy of the residual cancer burden score determination was 0.989. The kappa coefficient for overall agreement in the residual cancer burden category assignments was 0.583 (95% CI 0.539-0.626). The metastatic component of the residual cancer burden index showed stronger concordance between pathologists (overall concordance correlation coefficient=0.980; 95% CI 0.954-0.992), than the primary component (overall concordance correlation coefficient=0.795; 95% CI 0.716-0.853). At a median follow-up of 12 years residual cancer burden determined by each of the pathologists had the same prognostic accuracy for distant recurrence-free and survival (overall concordance correlation coefficient=0.995; 95% CI 0.989-0.998). Residual cancer burden assessment is highly reproducible, with reproducible long-term prognostic significance.