Estimating the Under-ascertainment of COVID-19 cases in Toronto, Ontario, March to May 2020.

Background: Public health surveillance data do not always capture all cases, due in part to test availability and health care seeking behaviour. Our study aimed to estimate under-ascertainment multipliers for each step in the reporting chain for COVID-19 in Toronto, Canada. Design and methods: We applied stochastic modeling to estimate these proportions for the period from March 2020 (the beginning of the pandemic) through to May 23, 2020, and for three distinct windows with different laboratory testing criteria within this period. Results: For each laboratory-confirmed symptomatic case reported to Toronto Public Health during the entire period, the estimated number of COVID-19 infections in the community was 18 (5th and 95th percentile: 12, 29). The factor most associated with under-reporting was the proportion of those who sought care that received a test. Conclusions: Public health officials should use improved estimates to better understand the burden of COVID-19 and other similar infections.

Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study.

Initial efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic have relied heavily on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing, hand hygiene, and mask-wearing. However, an effective vaccine is essential to containing the spread of the virus. We developed a compartmental model to examine different vaccine strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Our framework accounts for testing rates, test-turnaround times, and vaccination waning immunity. Using reported case data from the city of Toronto, Canada between Mar-Dec, 2020 we defined epidemic phases of infection using contact rates as well as the probability of transmission upon contact. We investigated the impact of vaccine distribution by comparing different permutations of waning immunity, vaccine coverage and efficacy throughout various stages of NPI's relaxation in terms of cases and deaths. The basic reproduction number is also studied. We observed that widespread vaccine coverage substantially reduced the number of cases and deaths. Under phases with high transmission, an early or late reopening will result in new resurgence of the infection, even with the highest coverage. On the other hand, under phases with lower transmission, 60% of coverage is enough to prevent new infections. Our analysis of R0 showed that the basic reproduction number is reduced by decreasing the tests turnaround time and transmission in the household. While we found that household transmission can decrease following the introduction of a vaccine, public health efforts to reduce test turnaround times remain important for virus containment.

Comparison of longitudinal trends in self-reported symptoms and COVID-19 case activity in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Limitations in laboratory diagnostic capacity impact population surveillance of COVID-19. It is currently unknown whether participatory surveillance tools for COVID-19 correspond to government-reported case trends longitudinally and if it can be used as an adjunct to laboratory testing. The primary objective of this study was to determine whether self-reported COVID-19-like illness reflected laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case trends in Ontario Canada. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed longitudinal self-reported symptoms data collected using an online tool-Outbreaks Near Me (ONM)-from April 20th, 2020, to March 7th, 2021 in Ontario, Canada. We measured the correlation between COVID-like illness among respondents and the weekly number of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases and provincial test positivity. We explored contemporaneous changes in other respiratory viruses, as well as the demographic characteristics of respondents to provide context for our findings. RESULTS: Between 3,849-11,185 individuals responded to the symptom survey each week. No correlations were seen been self-reported CLI and either cases or test positivity. Strong positive correlations were seen between CLI and both cases and test positivity before a previously documented rise in rhinovirus/enterovirus in fall 2020. Compared to participatory surveillance respondents, a higher proportion of COVID-19 cases in Ontario consistently came from low-income, racialized and immigrant areas of the province- these groups were less well represented among survey respondents. INTERPRETATION: Although digital surveillance systems are low-cost tools that have been useful to signal the onset of viral outbreaks, in this longitudinal comparison of self-reported COVID-like illness to Ontario COVID-19 case data we did not find this to be the case. Seasonal respiratory virus transmission and population coverage may explain this discrepancy.

Increasing concentration of COVID-19 by socioeconomic determinants and geography in Toronto, Canada: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Inequities in the burden of COVID-19 were observed early in Canada and around the world, suggesting economically marginalized communities faced disproportionate risks. However, there has been limited systematic assessment of how heterogeneity in risks has evolved in large urban centers over time. PURPOSE: To address this gap, we quantified the magnitude of risk heterogeneity in Toronto, Ontario from January to November 2020 using a retrospective, population-based observational study using surveillance data. METHODS: We generated epidemic curves by social determinants of health (SDOH) and crude Lorenz curves by neighbourhoods to visualize inequities in the distribution of COVID-19 and estimated Gini coefficients. We examined the correlation between SDOH using Pearson-correlation coefficients. RESULTS: Gini coefficient of cumulative cases by population size was 0.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.36-0.47) and estimated for: household income (0.20, 95%CI: 0.14-0.28); visible minority (0.21, 95%CI:0.16-0.28); recent immigration (0.12, 95%CI:0.09-0.16); suitable housing (0.21, 95%CI:0.14-0.30); multigenerational households (0.19, 95%CI:0.15-0.23); and essential workers (0.28, 95%CI:0.23-0.34). CONCLUSIONS: There was rapid epidemiologic transition from higher- to lower-income neighborhoods with Lorenz curve transitioning from below to above the line of equality across SDOH. Moving forward necessitates integrating programs and policies addressing socioeconomic inequities and structural racism into COVID-19 prevention and vaccination programs.

Web and phone-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance in Canada: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Syndromic surveillance through web or phone-based polling has been used to track the course of infectious diseases worldwide. Our study objective was to describe the characteristics, symptoms, and self-reported testing rates of respondents in three different COVID-19 symptom surveys in Canada. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using three distinct Canada-wide web-based surveys, and phone polling in Ontario. All three sources contained self-reported information on COVID-19 symptoms and testing. In addition to describing respondent characteristics, we examined symptom frequency and the testing rate among the symptomatic, as well as rates of symptoms and testing across respondent groups. RESULTS: We found that over March- April 2020, 1.6% of respondents experienced a symptom on the day of their survey, 15% of Ontario households had a symptom in the previous week, and 44% of Canada-wide respondents had a symptom in the previous month. Across the three surveys, SARS-CoV-2-testing was reported in 2-9% of symptomatic responses. Women, younger and middle-aged adults (versus older adults) and Indigenous/First nations/Inuit/Métis were more likely to report at least one symptom, and visible minorities were more likely to report the combination of fever with cough or shortness of breath. INTERPRETATION: The low rate of testing among those reporting symptoms suggests significant opportunity to expand testing among community-dwelling residents of Canada. Syndromic surveillance data can supplement public health reports and provide much-needed context to gauge the adequacy of SARS-CoV-2 testing rates.

Risk factors associated with group A Streptococcus acquisition in a large, urban homeless shelter outbreak.

OBJECTIVE: Group A Streptococcus (GAS) is a frequent cause of outbreaks in healthcare institutions, yet outbreak reports in the literature from homeless shelters are less common, despite an increased risk of severe GAS infection in homeless populations. In 2016, we conducted a case-control study to identify significant risk factors associated with GAS acquisition in a protracted, 19-month outbreak of GAS in a large, urban men's homeless shelter in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: Cases (individuals with either clinical GAS emm74 infection or asymptomatic carriers of GAS emm74) and controls were identified from shelter residents from February to September 2016. Information on demographics, clinical presentation, pre-existing health conditions, and risk factors for GAS transmission were collected for all study participants from a variety of sources, including the public health notifiable disease information system, electronic health records, the shelter electronic information system, and interviews with client services workers. RESULTS: From the multivariable logistic regression model, younger individuals (OR 9.1; 95% CI 1.57-52.9), those with previous skin conditions (OR 56.2; 95% CI 2.73-1160), and those with recent wounds (with wound care: OR 51.5, 95% CI 8.86-299, and without wound care: OR 77.4, 95% CI 7.38-812) were found to be at increased risk of acquiring GAS in this outbreak. CONCLUSION: The outbreak investigation clearly demonstrated the need for improved wound care and infection prevention and control practices, for early screening and detection of skin and soft tissue infections, and for a comprehensive, integrated electronic information system in homeless shelters.

Retiring the Flip Phones: Exploring Social Media Use for Managing Public Health Incidents.

OBJECTIVE: Communication is essential during public health emergencies and incidents. This research aimed to understand current uses and challenges for public health agencies using social media during these incidents. METHODS: An exploratory, qualitative study was conducted using the structured interview matrix facilitation technique. Focus groups were held with professionals from local public health agencies across Ontario, Canada. Representation from different geographic regions was sought to capture differences in participant experience. An inductive approach to content analysis was used to identify emergent themes. RESULTS: A diverse group of public health professionals (n = 36) participated. Six themes were identified. Social media is identified as a communication tool used to expand reach of messages, to engage in dialogue with the public, and to inform the scope of potential incidents. Barriers to its use include hesitancy to adapt, lack of trust and credibility, and organizational structure and capacity constraints. Key strategies proposed to promote social media use and address barriers resulted from participant discussions and are presented. CONCLUSION: Social media use is highly variable across public health agencies in Ontario. This study identifies and provides strategies to address barriers and practice gaps related to public health agencies' use of social media during emergencies.

Cost-effectiveness of measles control during elimination in Ontario, Canada, 2015.

BackgroundGiven that measles is eliminated in Canada and measles immunisation coverage in Ontario is high, it has been questioned whether Ontario's measles outbreak response is worthwhile.AimOur objective was to determine cost-effectiveness of measles containment protocols in Ontario from the healthcare payer perspective.MethodsWe developed a decision-analysis model comparing Ontario's measles containment strategy (based on actual 2015 outbreak data) with a hypothetical 'modified response'. The modified scenario assumed 10% response costs with reduced case and contact tracing and no outbreak-associated vaccinations; it was based on local and provincial administrative and laboratory data and parameters from peer-reviewed literature. Short- and long-term health outcomes, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs discounted at 1.5%, were estimated. We conducted one- and two-way sensitivity analyses.ResultsThe 2015 outbreak in Ontario comprised 16 measles cases and an estimated 3,369 contacts. Predictive modelling suggested that the outbreak response prevented 16 outbreak-associated cases at a cost of CAD 1,213,491 (EUR 861,579). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was CAD 739,063 (EUR 524,735) per QALY gained for the outbreak response vs modified response. To meet the commonly accepted cost-effectiveness threshold of CAD 50,000 (EUR 35,500) per QALY gained, the outbreak response would have to prevent 94 measles cases. In sensitivity analyses, the findings were robust.ConclusionsOntario's measles outbreak response exceeds generally accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds and may not be the most efficient use of public health resources from a healthcare payer perspective. These findings should be balanced against benefits of increased vaccine coverage and maintaining elimination status.

Comparing Twitter data to routine data sources in public health surveillance for the 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined Twitter for public health surveillance during a mass gathering in Canada with two objectives: to explore the feasibility of acquiring, categorizing and using geolocated Twitter data and to compare Twitter data against other data sources used for Pan Parapan American Games (P/PAG) surveillance. METHODS: Syndrome definitions were created using keyword categorization to extract posts from Twitter. Categories were developed iteratively for four relevant syndromes: respiratory, gastrointestinal, heat-related illness, and influenza-like illness (ILI). All data sources corresponded to the location of Toronto, Canada. Twitter data were acquired from a publicly available stream representing a 1% random sample of tweets from June 26 to September 10, 2015. Cross-correlation analyses of time series data were conducted between Twitter and comparator surveillance data sources: emergency department visits, telephone helpline calls, laboratory testing positivity rate, reportable disease data, and temperature. RESULTS: The frequency of daily tweets that were classified into syndromes was low, with the highest mean number of daily tweets being for ILI and respiratory syndromes (22.0 and 21.6, respectively) and the lowest, for the heat syndrome (4.1). Cross-correlation analyses of Twitter data demonstrated significant correlations for heat syndrome with two data sources: telephone helpline calls (r = 0.4) and temperature data (r = 0.5). CONCLUSION: Using simple syndromes based on keyword classification of geolocated tweets, we found a correlation between tweets and two routine data sources for heat alerts, the only public health event detected during P/PAG. Further research is needed to understand the role for Twitter in surveillance.

Measles Outbreak with Unique Virus Genotyping, Ontario, Canada, 2015.

The province of Ontario continues to experience measles virus transmissions despite the elimination of measles in Canada. We describe an unusual outbreak of measles in Ontario, Canada, in early 2015 that involved cases with a unique strain of virus and no known association among primary case-patients. A total of 18 cases of measles were reported from 4 public health units during the outbreak period (January 25-March 23, 2015); none of these cases occurred in persons who had recently traveled. Despite enhancements to case-patient interview methods and epidemiologic analyses, a source patient was not identified. However, the molecular epidemiologic analysis, which included extended sequencing, strongly suggested that all cases derived from a single importation of measles virus genotype D4. The use of timely genotype sequencing, rigorous epidemiologic investigation, and a better understanding of the gaps in surveillance are needed to maintain Ontario's measles elimination status.

Impact of a labour disruption affecting local public health on the incidence of chlamydia infections in Toronto.

INTRODUCTION: Labour disruptions that interrupt services can be a natural experiment to examine the effect of halting a program. A five-week municipal labour disruption in Toronto during the summer of 2009 provided an opportunity to investigate the impact of reduced sexual health services. METHODS: We examined the incidence of reported chlamydia in Toronto during the five years (2004-2008) preceding the labour disruption and during the periods just before, during, and after the labour disruption. Comparisons of actual reports for 2009 were made to immediately adjacent periods around the labour disruption, to historical trends and to forecasted rates. Interrupted time series analysis was used to test for significant differences in the trend of reported chlamydia incidence. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the trend of reported chlamydia incidence around the time of the strike. However, there was a small but significant increase in the incidence of reported chlamydia, particularly among females under 25 years old immediately following the labour disruption. The reported incidence for this group was higher than would be expected based on annual increases and projected seasonal trends. CONCLUSIONS: There was a small increase in incidence of reported cases of chlamydia for certain groups that went beyond what is expected during the time immediately following the labour disruption. While causation cannot be implied from our ecological study, public health services may play a role in the control of sexually transmitted infections, even in the short-term. This underscores the need for future work to understand whether the changes observed can be attributed to the absence of these services.

Are Campylobacter cases low risk for public health follow-up?

OBJECTIVES: Most Campylobacter cases are treated as low risk enterics (LRE) and receive a mailed letter from Toronto Public Health (TPH) with a questionnaire to gather basic risk information. This study sought to identify reasons why Campylobacter cases who were sent this questionnaire did not respond to the letter and to determine whether any of these cases were working in a high-risk occupation. METHODS: Cases reported to TPH between June 11, 2012 and December 6, 2012 who had not returned the questionnaire within 30 days were telephoned. Participants were asked about awareness of the original letter, reasons for not responding, and whether they worked in a high-risk occupation. RESULTS: Of the 226 cases identified as not responding to the letter, 172 (76.1%) were reached, and 162 (71.7%) answered the survey questions. The most frequent reason chosen for not responding to the original letter was "forgot" (54.4%). The most common suggestion chosen for ways to encourage response to the original letter was "more information on importance of returning questionnaire" (19.1%). Of the 119 cases with a known occupation, 3 (2.4%) were employed in a sensitive occupation - these include a family physician, a food server, and a line cook. None worked while ill. When prompted with a list of reasons for not returning the questionnaire, the majority of respondents indicated that they "forgot" (54.4%); the next most frequent response was "recovered by illness no longer considered it relevant" (21.5%). CONCLUSION: To increase response rates in the future, a cover letter should more clearly explain why the response is being solicited by Public Health, even after recovery from the illness, and the form should be simplified for mail return. A very small number of clients originally not reached through the course of the routine LRE program were working in sensitive occupations. Since none reported working while ill, the likelihood of direct or indirect transmission of Campylobacter from these three individuals was low. Using a LRE system to monitor a widespread mostly low-morbidity gastroenteric illness can be an effective public health strategy.

The impact of infection on population health: results of the Ontario burden of infectious diseases study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based priority setting is increasingly important for rationally distributing scarce health resources and for guiding future health research. We sought to quantify the contribution of a wide range of infectious diseases to the overall infectious disease burden in a high-income setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used health-adjusted life years (HALYs), a composite measure comprising premature mortality and reduced functioning due to disease, to estimate the burden of 51 infectious diseases and associated syndromes in Ontario using 2005-2007 data. Deaths were estimated from vital statistics data and disease incidence was estimated from reportable disease, healthcare utilization, and cancer registry data, supplemented by local modeling studies and national and international epidemiologic studies. The 51 infectious agents and associated syndromes accounted for 729 lost HALYs, 44.2 deaths, and 58,987 incident cases per 100,000 population annually. The most burdensome infectious agents were: hepatitis C virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, human papillomavirus, hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, Staphylococcus aureus, influenza virus, Clostridium difficile, and rhinovirus. The top five, ten, and 20 pathogens accounted for 46%, 67%, and 75% of the total infectious disease burden, respectively. Marked sex-specific differences in disease burden were observed for some pathogens. The main limitations of this study were the exclusion of certain infectious diseases due to data availability issues, not considering the impact of co-infections and co-morbidity, and the inability to assess the burden of milder infections that do not result in healthcare utilization. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Infectious diseases continue to cause a substantial health burden in high-income settings such as Ontario. Most of this burden is attributable to a relatively small number of infectious agents, for which many effective interventions have been previously identified. Therefore, these findings should be used to guide public health policy, planning, and research.

Development of a surveillance case definition for heat-related illness using 911 medical dispatch data.

OBJECTIVES: The adverse effects of hot weather on public health are of increasing concern. A surveillance system using 911 medical dispatch data for the detection of heat-related illness (HRI) could provide new information on the impact of excessive heat on the population. This paper describes how we identified medical dispatch call codes, called "determinants", that could represent HRI events. METHODS: Approximately 500 medical dispatch determinants were reviewed in focus groups composed of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) paramedics, dispatchers, physicians, and public health epidemiologists. Each group was asked to select those determinants that might adequately represent HRI. Selections were then assessed empirically using correlations with daily mean temperature over the study period (June 1-August 31,2005). RESULTS: The focus groups identified 12 determinant groupings and ranked them according to specificity for HRI. Of these, "Heat/cold exposure" was deemed the most specific. The call determinant groupings with the clearest positive associations with daily mean temperature empirically were "Heat/cold exposure" (Spearman's correlation coefficient (SCC) 0.71, p < 0.0001) and "Unknown problem (man down)" (SCC 0.21, p = 0.04). Within each grouping, the determinant "Unknown status (3rd party caller)" showed significant associations, SCC = 0.34 (p = 0.001) and SCC = 0.22 (p = 0.03) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically-informed expertise and empirical evidence both contributed to identification of a group of 911 medical dispatch call determinants that plausibly represent HRI events. Once evaluated prospectively, these may be used in public health surveillance to better understand environmental health impacts on human populations and inform targeted public health interventions.

Household transmission of SARS, 2003.

BACKGROUND: In the 2003 outbreak in Toronto (in Ontario, Canada) of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), about 20% of cases resulted from household transmission. The purpose of our study was to determine characteristics associated with the transmission of SARS within households. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of SARS-affected households was studied to determine risk factors for household transmission. Questionnaires addressed characteristics of the index case, the household and behaviours among household members. Potential risk factors for secondary transmission of infection were assessed in regression models appropriate to the outcome (secondary cases) and nonindependence of household members. RESULTS: The 74 households that participated included 18 secondary cases and 158 uninfected household members in addition to the 74 index cases. The household secondary attack rate was 10.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.7%-23.5%). There was a linear association between the time the index patient spent at home after symptom onset and the secondary attack rate. Infected health care workers who were index cases had lower rates of household transmission. INTERPRETATION: SARS transmission in households is complex and increases with the length of time an ill person spends at home. Risk of transmission was lower when the index case was a health care worker. Rapid case identification is the public health measure most useful in minimizing exposure in the home.

Treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in San Francisco: an outpatient-based approach.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis requires prolonged therapy, often involving long hospital stays. Despite intensive and costly therapy, cure rates are relatively low. METHODS: We reviewed the outcomes for all patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treated in San Francisco, California, during 1982-2000 and identified billing charges for patients treated during 1995-2000. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates were genotyped by IS6110-based restriction fragment-length polymorphism analysis. RESULTS: Forty-eight cases were identified with resistance to a median of 3 drugs (range, 2-9 drugs). The median age of the patients was 49.5 years (range, 22-78 years); 36 (75%) of 48 patients were foreign born, 11 (23%) were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositive, and 45 (94%) had pulmonary tuberculosis. Thirty-two (97%) of the 33 HIV-seronegative patients were cured, with only 1 relapse occurring 5 years after treatment. All 11 HIV-seropositive patients died during observation. Twenty-one patients (44%) required hospitalization, with a median duration of stay of 14 days (range, 3-74 days). The estimated inpatient and outpatient aggregate cost for the 11 patients treated after 1994 was $519,928, with a median cost of $27,752 per patient. No secondary cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis were identified through population-based genotyping. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in HIV-seronegative patients largely on an outpatient basis was feasible and was associated with high cure rates and lower cost than in other published studies. Patients with underlying HIV infection had very poor outcomes.

Public health measures to control the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome during the outbreak in Toronto.

BACKGROUND: Toronto was the site of North America's largest outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). An understanding of the patterns of transmission and the effects on public health in relation to control measures that were taken will help health officials prepare for any future outbreaks. METHODS: We analyzed SARS case, quarantine, and hotline records in relation to control measures. The two phases of the outbreak were compared. RESULTS: Toronto Public Health investigated 2132 potential cases of SARS, identified 23,103 contacts of SARS patients as requiring quarantine, and logged 316,615 calls on its SARS hotline. In Toronto, 225 residents met the case definition of SARS, and all but 3 travel-related cases were linked to the index patient, from Hong Kong. SARS spread to 11 (58 percent) of Toronto's acute care hospitals. Unrecognized SARS among in-patients with underlying illness caused a resurgence, or a second phase, of the outbreak, which was finally controlled through active surveillance of hospitalized patients. In response to the control measures of Toronto Public Health, the number of persons who were exposed to SARS in nonhospital and nonhousehold settings dropped from 20 (13 percent) before the control measures were instituted (phase 1) to 0 afterward (phase 2). The number of patients who were exposed while in a hospital ward rose from 25 (17 percent) in phase 1 to 68 (88 percent) in phase 2, and the number exposed while in the intensive care unit dropped from 13 (9 percent) in phase 1 to 0 in phase 2. Community spread (the length of the chains of transmission outside of hospital settings) was significantly reduced in phase 2 of the outbreak (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The transmission of SARS in Toronto was limited primarily to hospitals and to households that had had contact with patients. For every case of SARS, health authorities should expect to quarantine up to 100 contacts of the patients and to investigate 8 possible cases. During an outbreak, active in-hospital surveillance for SARS-like illnesses and heightened infection-control measures are essential.

Investigation of a nosocomial outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Toronto, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was introduced into Canada by a visitor to Hong Kong who returned to Toronto on Feb. 23, 2003. Transmission to a family member who was later admitted to a community hospital in Toronto led to a large nosocomial outbreak. In this report we summarize the preliminary results of the epidemiological investigation into the transmission of SARS between 128 cases associated with this hospital outbreak. METHODS: We collected epidemiologic data on 128 probable and suspect cases of SARS associated with the hospital outbreak, including those who became infected in hospital and the next generation of illness arising among their contacts. Incubation periods were calculated based on cases with a single known exposure. Transmission chains from the index family to hospital contacts and within the hospital were mapped. Attack rates were calculated for nurses in 3 hospital wards where transmission occurred. RESULTS: The cases ranged in age from 21 months to 86 years; 60.2% were female. Seventeen deaths were reported (case-fatality rate 13.3%). Of the identified cases, 36.7% were hospital staff. Other cases were household or social contacts of SARS cases (29.6%), hospital patients (14.1%), visitors (14.1%) or other health care workers (5.5%). Of the 128 cases, 120 (93.8%) had documented contact with a SARS case or with a ward where there was a known SARS case. The remaining 8 cases without documented exposure are believed to have had exposure to an unidentified case and remain under investigation. The attack rates among nurses who worked in the emergency department, intensive care unit and coronary care unit ranged from 10.3% to 60.0%. Based on 42 of the 128 cases with a single known contact with a SARS case, the mean incubation period was 5 days (range 2 to 10 days). INTERPRETATION: Evidence to date suggests that SARS is a severe respiratory illness spread mainly by respiratory droplets. There has been no evidence of further transmission within the hospital after the elapse of 2 full incubation periods (20 days).