The age-related contribution of cognitive function to dual-task gait in middle-aged adults in Spain: observations from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Poor dual-task gait performance is associated with a risk of falls and cognitive decline in adults aged 65 years or older. When and why dual-task gait performance begins to deteriorate is unknown. This study aimed to characterise the relationships between age, dual-task gait, and cognitive function in middle age (ie, aged 40-64 years). METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from community-dwelling adults aged 40-64 years that took part in the Barcelona Brain Health Initiative (BBHI) study, an ongoing longitudinal cohort study in Barcelona, Spain. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they were able to walk independently without assistance and had completed assessments of both gait and cognition at the time of analysis and ineligble if they could not understand the study protocol, had any clinically diagnosed neurological or psychiatric diseases, were cognitively impaired, or had lower-extremity pain, osteoarthritis, or rheumatoid arthritis that could cause abnormal gait. Stride time and stride time variability were measured under single-task (ie, walking only) and dual-task (ie, walking while performing serial subtractions) conditions. Dual-task cost (DTC; the percentage increase in the gait outcomes from single-task to dual-task conditions) to each gait outcome was calculated and used as the primary measure in analyses. Global cognitive function and composite scores of five cognitive domains were derived from neuropsychological testing. We used locally estimated scatterplot smoothing to characterise the relationship between age and dual-task gait, and structural equation modelling to establish whether cognitive function mediated the association between observed biological age and dual tasks. FINDINGS: 996 people were recruited to the BBHI study between May 5, 2018, and July 7, 2020, of which 640 participants completed gait and cognitive assessments during this time (mean 24 days [SD 34] between first and second visit) and were included in our analysis (342 men and 298 women). Non-linear associations were observed between age and dual-task performance. Starting at 54 years, the DTC to stride time (ß=0·27 [95% CI 0·11 to 0·36]; p<0·0001) and stride time variability (0·24 [0·08 to 0·32]; p=0·0006) increased with advancing age. In individuals aged 54 years or older, decreased global cognitive function correlated with increased DTC to stride time (ß=-0·27 [-0·38 to -0·11]; p=0·0006) and increased DTC to stride time variability (ß=-0·19 [-0·28 to -0·08]; p=0·0002). INTERPRETATION: Dual-task gait performance begins to deteriorate in the sixth decade of life and, after this point, interindividual variance in cognition explains a substantial portion of dual-task performance. FUNDING: La Caixa Foundation, Institut Guttmann, and Fundació Abertis.

Development and validation of the fall-related injury risk in nursing homes (INJURE-NH) prediction tool.

BACKGROUND: Existing models to predict fall-related injuries (FRI) in nursing homes (NH) focus on hip fractures, yet hip fractures comprise less than half of all FRIs. We developed and validated a series of models to predict the absolute risk of FRIs in NH residents. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of long-stay US NH residents (≥100 days in the same facility) between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2017 (n = 733,427) using Medicare claims and Minimum Data Set v3.0 clinical assessments. Predictors of FRIs were selected through LASSO logistic regression in a 2/3 random derivation sample and tested in a 1/3 validation sample. Sub-distribution hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated for 6-month and 2-year follow-up. Discrimination was evaluated via C-statistic, and calibration compared the predicted rate of FRI to the observed rate. To develop a parsimonious clinical tool, we calculated a score using the five strongest predictors in the Fine-Gray model. Model performance was repeated in the validation sample. RESULTS: Mean (Q1, Q3) age was 85.0 (77.5, 90.6) years and 69.6% were women. Within 2 years of follow-up, 43,976 (6.0%) residents experienced ≥1 FRI. Seventy predictors were included in the model. The discrimination of the 2-year prediction model was good (C-index = 0.70), and the calibration was excellent. Calibration and discrimination of the 6-month model were similar (C-index = 0.71). In the clinical tool to predict 2-year risk, the five characteristics included independence in activities of daily living (ADLs) (HR 2.27; 95% CI 2.14-2.41) and a history of non-hip fracture (HR 2.02; 95% CI 1.94-2.12). Performance results were similar in the validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a series of risk prediction models that can identify NH residents at greatest risk for FRI. In NH, these models should help target preventive strategies.

Brain activity during dual-task standing in older adults.

BACKGROUND: In older adults, the extent to which performing a cognitive task when standing diminishes postural control is predictive of future falls and cognitive decline. The neurophysiology of such "dual-tasking" and its effect on postural control (i.e., dual-task cost) in older adults are poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to use electroencephalography (EEG) to examine the effects of dual-tasking when standing on brain activity in older adults. We hypothesized that compared to single-task "quiet" standing, dual-task standing would decrease alpha power, which has been linked to decreased motor inhibition, as well as increase the ratio of theta to beta power, which has been linked to increased attentional control. METHODS: Thirty older adults without overt disease completed four separate visits. Postural sway together with EEG (32-channels) were recorded during trials of standing with and without a concurrent verbalized serial subtraction dual-task. Postural control was measured by average sway area, velocity, and path length. EEG metrics included absolute alpha-, theta-, and beta-band powers as well as theta/beta power ratio, within six demarcated regions-of-interest: the left and right anterior, central, and posterior regions of the brain. RESULTS: Most EEG metrics demonstrated moderate-to-high between-day test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficients > 0.70). Compared with quiet standing, dual-tasking decreased alpha-band power particularly in the central regions bilaterally (p = 0.002) and increased theta/beta power ratio in the anterior regions bilaterally (p < 0.001). A greater increase in theta/beta ratio from quiet standing to dual-tasking in numerous demarcated brain regions correlated with greater dual-task cost (i.e., absolute increase, indicative of worse performance) to postural sway metrics (r = 0.45-0.56, p < 0.01). Lastly, participants who exhibited greater alpha power during dual-tasking in the anterior-right (r = 0.52, p < 0.01) and central-right (r = 0.48, p < 0.01) regions had greater postural sway velocity during dual-tasking. CONCLUSION: In healthy older adults, alpha power and theta/beta power ratio change with dual-task standing. The change in theta/beta power ratio in particular may be related to the ability to regulate standing postural control when simultaneously performing unrelated, attention-demanding cognitive tasks. Modulation of brain oscillatory activity might therefore be a novel target to minimize dual-task cost in older adults.

Osteoporosis Medications Prevent Subsequent Fracture in Frail Older Adults.

Frailty is common in older adults with fractures. Osteoporosis medications reduce subsequent fracture, but limited data exist on medication efficacy in frail individuals. Our objective was to determine whether medications reduce the risk of subsequent fracture in frail, older adults. A retrospective cohort of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries was conducted (2014-2016). We included adults aged ≥65 years who were hospitalized with fractures without osteoporosis treatment. Pre-fracture frailty was defined using claims-based frailty index (≥0.2 = frail). Exposure to any osteoporosis treatment (oral or intravenous bisphosphonates, denosumab, and teriparatide) was ascertained using Part B and D claims and categorized according to the cumulative duration of exposure: none, 1-90 days, and >90 days. Subsequent fractures were ascertained from Part A or B claims. Cause-specific hazard models with time-varying exposure were fit to examine the association between treatment and fracture outcomes, controlling for relevant covariates. Among 29,904 patients hospitalized with fractures, 15,345 (51.3%) were frail, and 2148 (7.2%) received osteoporosis treatment (median treatment duration 183.0 days). Patients who received treatment were younger (80.2 versus 82.2 years), female (86.5% versus 73.0%), and less frail (0.20 versus 0.22) than patients without treatment. During follow-up, 5079 (17.0%) patients experienced a subsequent fracture. Treatment with osteoporosis medications for >90 days compared with no treatment reduced the risk of fracture (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-1.00) overall. Results were similar in frail (HR = 0.85; 95% CI 0.65-1.12) and non-frail (HR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.61-1.04) patients but not significant. In conclusion, osteoporosis treatment >90 days was associated with similar trends in reduced risk of subsequent fracture in frail and non-frail persons. Treatment rates were very low, particularly among the frail. When weighing treatment options in frail older adults with hospitalized fractures, clinicians should be aware that drug therapy does not appear to lose its efficacy. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Network-Based Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation May Modulate Gait Variability in Young Healthy Adults.

Purpose: Previous studies have linked gait variability to resting-state functional connectivity between the dorsal attention network (DAN) and the default network (DN) in the brain. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a novel transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) paradigm designed to simultaneously facilitate the excitability of the DAN and suppress the excitability of the DN (i.e., DAN+/DN-tDCS) on gait variability and other gait characteristics in young healthy adults. Methods: In this double-blinded randomized and sham-controlled study, 48 healthy adults aged 22 ± 2 years received one 20-min session of DAN+/DN-tDCS (n = 24) or no stimulation (the Sham group, n = 24). Immediately before and after stimulation, participants completed a gait assessment under three conditions: walking at self-selected speed (i.e., normal walking), walking as fast as possible (i.e., fast walking), and walking while counting backward (i.e., dual-task walking). Primary outcomes included gait stride time variability and gait stride length variability in normal walking conditions. Secondary outcomes include gait stride time and length variability in fast and dual-task conditions, and other gait metrics derived from the three walking conditions. Results: Compared to the Sham group, DAN+/DN-tDCS reduced stride length variability in normal and fast walking conditions, double-limb support time variability in fast and dual-task walking conditions, and step width variability in fast walking conditions. In contrast, DAN+/DN-tDCS did not alter average gait speed or the average value of any other gait metrics as compared to the sham group. Conclusion: In healthy young adults, a single exposure to tDCS designed to simultaneously modulate DAN and DN excitability reduced gait variability, yet did not alter gait speed or other average gait metrics, when tested just after stimulation. These results suggest that gait variability may be uniquely regulated by these spatially-distinct yet functionally-connected cortical networks. These results warrant additional research on the short- and longer-term effects of this type of network-based tDCS on the cortical control of walking in younger and older populations.

Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation May Reduce Prefrontal Recruitment During Dual Task Walking in Functionally Limited Older Adults - A Pilot Study.

Introduction: Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) targeting the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) improves dual task walking in older adults, when tested just after stimulation. The acute effects of tDCS on the cortical physiology of walking, however, remains unknown. Methods: In a previous study, older adults with slow gait and executive dysfunction completed a dual task walking assessment before and after 20 min of tDCS targeting the left dlPFC or sham stimulation. In a subset of seven participants per group, functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) was used to quantify left and right prefrontal recruitment defined as the oxygenated hemoglobin response to usual and dual task walking (ΔHbO2), as well as the absolute change in this metric from usual to dual task conditions (i.e., ΔHbO2 cost ). Paired t-tests examined pre- to post-stimulation differences in each fNIRS metric within each group. Results: The tDCS group exhibited pre- to post-stimulation reduction in left prefrontal ΔHbO2 cost (p = 0.03). This mitigation of dual task "cost" to prefrontal recruitment was induced primarily by a reduction in left prefrontal ΔHbO2 specifically within the dual task condition (p = 0.001), an effect that was observed in all seven participants within this group. Sham stimulation did not influence ΔHbO2 cost or ΔHbO2 in either walking condition (p > 0.35), and neither tDCS nor sham substantially influenced right prefrontal recruitment (p > 0.16). Discussion: This preliminary fNIRS data suggests that tDCS over the left dlPFC may modulate prefrontal recruitment, as reflected by a relative reduction in the oxygen consumption of this brain region in response to dual task walking.

Multitarget Transcranial Electrical Stimulation for Freezing of Gait: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatments of freezing of gait (FOG) in Parkinson's disease are suboptimal. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of multiple sessions of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) targeting the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and primary motor cortex (M1) on FOG. METHODS: Seventy-seven individuals with Parkinson's disease and FOG were enrolled in a double-blinded randomized trial. tDCS and sham interventions comprised 10 sessions over 2 weeks followed by five once-weekly sessions. FOG-provoking test performance (primary outcome), functional outcomes, and self-reported FOG severity were assessed. RESULTS: Primary analyses demonstrated no advantage for tDCS in the FOG-provoking test. In secondary analyses, tDCS, compared with sham, decreased self-reported FOG severity and increased daily living step counts. Among individuals with mild-to-moderate FOG severity, tDCS improved FOG-provoking test time and self-report of FOG. CONCLUSIONS: Multisession tDCS targeting the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and M1 did not improve laboratory-based FOG-provoking test performance. Improvements observed in participants with mild-to-moderate FOG severity warrant further investigation. © 2021 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Using Wearable Sensors and Machine Learning to Automatically Detect Freezing of Gait during a FOG-Provoking Test.

Freezing of gait (FOG) is a debilitating motor phenomenon that is common among individuals with advanced Parkinson's disease. Objective and sensitive measures are needed to better quantify FOG. The present work addresses this need by leveraging wearable devices and machine-learning methods to develop and evaluate automated detection of FOG and quantification of its severity. Seventy-one subjects with FOG completed a FOG-provoking test while wearing three wearable sensors (lower back and each ankle). Subjects were videotaped before (OFF state) and after (ON state) they took their antiparkinsonian medications. Annotations of the videos provided the "ground-truth" for FOG detection. A leave-one-patient-out validation process with a training set of 57 subjects resulted in 84.1% sensitivity, 83.4% specificity, and 85.0% accuracy for FOG detection. Similar results were seen in an independent test set (data from 14 other subjects). Two derived outcomes, percent time frozen and number of FOG episodes, were associated with self-report of FOG. Bother derived-metrics were higher in the OFF state than in the ON state and in the most challenging level of the FOG-provoking test, compared to the least challenging level. These results suggest that this automated machine-learning approach can objectively assess FOG and that its outcomes are responsive to therapeutic interventions.

Self-Reported Head Trauma Predicts Poor Dual Task Gait in Retired National Football League Players.

OBJECTIVE: Symptomatic head trauma associated with American-style football (ASF) has been linked to brain pathology, along with physical and mental distress in later life. However, the longer-term effects of such trauma on objective metrics of cognitive-motor function remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that ASF-related symptomatic head trauma would predict worse gait performance, particularly during dual task conditions (ie, walking while performing an additional cognitive task), in later life. METHODS: Sixty-six retired professional ASF players aged 29 to 75 years completed a health and wellness questionnaire. They also completed a validated smartphone-based assessment in their own homes, during which gait was monitored while they walked normally and while they performed a verbalized serial-subtraction cognitive task. RESULTS: Participants who reported more symptomatic head trauma, defined as the total number of impacts to the head or neck followed by concussion-related symptoms, exhibited greater dual task cost (ie, percentage increase) to stride time variability (ie, the coefficient of variation of mean stride time). Those who reported ≥1 hit followed by loss of consciousness, compared to those who did not, also exhibited greater dual task costs to this metric. Relationships between reported trauma and dual task costs were independent of age, body mass index, National Football League career duration, and history of musculoskeletal surgery. Symptomatic head trauma was not correlated with average stride times in either walking condition. INTERPRETATION: Remote, smartphone-based assessments of dual task walking may be utilized to capture meaningful data sensitive to the long-term impact of symptomatic head trauma in former professional ASF players and other contact sport athletes. ANN NEUROL 2020;87:75-83.

Nonparametric analysis of competing risks data with event category missing at random.

In competing risks setup, the data for each subject consist of the event time, censoring indicator, and event category. However, sometimes the information about the event category can be missing, as, for example, in a case when the date of death is known but the cause of death is not available. In such situations, treating subjects with missing event category as censored leads to the underestimation of the hazard functions. We suggest nonparametric estimators for the cumulative cause-specific hazards and the cumulative incidence functions which use the Nadaraya-Watson estimator to obtain the contribution of an event with missing category to each of the cause-specific hazards. We derive the propertied of the proposed estimators. Optimal bandwidth is determined, which minimizes the mean integrated squared errors of the proposed estimators over time. The methodology is illustrated using data on lung infections in patients from the United States Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry.

On the choice of time scales in competing risks predictions.

In the standard analysis of competing risks data, proportional hazards models are fit to the cause-specific hazard functions for all causes on the same time scale. These regression analyses are the foundation for predictions of cause-specific cumulative incidence functions based on combining the estimated cause-specific hazard functions. However, in predictions arising from disease registries, where only subjects with disease enter the database, disease-related mortality may be more naturally modeled on the time since diagnosis time scale while death from other causes may be more naturally modeled on the age time scale. The single time scale methodology may be biased if an incorrect time scale is employed for one of the causes and an alternative methodology is not available. We propose inferences for the cumulative incidence function in which regression models for the cause-specific hazard functions may be specified on different time scales. Using the disease registry data, the analysis of other cause mortality on the age scale requires left truncating the event time at the age of disease diagnosis, complicating the analysis. In addition, standard Martingale theory is not applicable when combining regression models on different time scales. We establish that the covariate conditional predictions are consistent and asymptotically normal using empirical process techniques and propose consistent variance estimators for constructing confidence intervals. Simulation studies show that the proposed two time scales method performs well, outperforming the single time-scale predictions when the time scale is misspecified. The methods are illustrated with stage III colon cancer data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of National Cancer Institute.

Common Genetic Polymorphisms Influence Blood Biomarker Measurements in COPD.

Implementing precision medicine for complex diseases such as chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) will require extensive use of biomarkers and an in-depth understanding of how genetic, epigenetic, and environmental variations contribute to phenotypic diversity and disease progression. A meta-analysis from two large cohorts of current and former smokers with and without COPD [SPIROMICS (N = 750); COPDGene (N = 590)] was used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with measurement of 88 blood proteins (protein quantitative trait loci; pQTLs). PQTLs consistently replicated between the two cohorts. Features of pQTLs were compared to previously reported expression QTLs (eQTLs). Inference of causal relations of pQTL genotypes, biomarker measurements, and four clinical COPD phenotypes (airflow obstruction, emphysema, exacerbation history, and chronic bronchitis) were explored using conditional independence tests. We identified 527 highly significant (p < 8 X 10-10) pQTLs in 38 (43%) of blood proteins tested. Most pQTL SNPs were novel with low overlap to eQTL SNPs. The pQTL SNPs explained >10% of measured variation in 13 protein biomarkers, with a single SNP (rs7041; p = 10-392) explaining 71%-75% of the measured variation in vitamin D binding protein (gene = GC). Some of these pQTLs [e.g., pQTLs for VDBP, sRAGE (gene = AGER), surfactant protein D (gene = SFTPD), and TNFRSF10C] have been previously associated with COPD phenotypes. Most pQTLs were local (cis), but distant (trans) pQTL SNPs in the ABO blood group locus were the top pQTL SNPs for five proteins. The inclusion of pQTL SNPs improved the clinical predictive value for the established association of sRAGE and emphysema, and the explanation of variance (R2) for emphysema improved from 0.3 to 0.4 when the pQTL SNP was included in the model along with clinical covariates. Causal modeling provided insight into specific pQTL-disease relationships for airflow obstruction and emphysema. In conclusion, given the frequency of highly significant local pQTLs, the large amount of variance potentially explained by pQTL, and the differences observed between pQTLs and eQTLs SNPs, we recommend that protein biomarker-disease association studies take into account the potential effect of common local SNPs and that pQTLs be integrated along with eQTLs to uncover disease mechanisms. Large-scale blood biomarker studies would also benefit from close attention to the ABO blood group.

Clinical Significance of Symptoms in Smokers with Preserved Pulmonary Function.

BACKGROUND: Currently, the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requires a ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) of less than 0.70 as assessed by spirometry after bronchodilator use. However, many smokers who do not meet this definition have respiratory symptoms. METHODS: We conducted an observational study involving 2736 current or former smokers and controls who had never smoked and measured their respiratory symptoms using the COPD Assessment Test (CAT; scores range from 0 to 40, with higher scores indicating greater severity of symptoms). We examined whether current or former smokers who had preserved pulmonary function as assessed by spirometry (FEV1:FVC ≥0.70 and an FVC above the lower limit of the normal range after bronchodilator use) and had symptoms (CAT score, ≥10) had a higher risk of respiratory exacerbations than current or former smokers with preserved pulmonary function who were asymptomatic (CAT score, <10) and whether those with symptoms had different findings from the asymptomatic group with respect to the 6-minute walk distance, lung function, or high-resolution computed tomographic (HRCT) scan of the chest. RESULTS: Respiratory symptoms were present in 50% of current or former smokers with preserved pulmonary function. The mean (±SD) rate of respiratory exacerbations among symptomatic current or former smokers was significantly higher than the rates among asymptomatic current or former smokers and among controls who never smoked (0.27±0.67 vs. 0.08±0.31 and 0.03±0.21 events, respectively, per year; P<0.001 for both comparisons). Symptomatic current or former smokers, regardless of history of asthma, also had greater limitation of activity, slightly lower FEV1, FVC, and inspiratory capacity, and greater airway-wall thickening without emphysema according to HRCT than did asymptomatic current or former smokers. Among symptomatic current or former smokers, 42% used bronchodilators and 23% used inhaled glucocorticoids. CONCLUSIONS: Although they do not meet the current criteria for COPD, symptomatic current or former smokers with preserved pulmonary function have exacerbations, activity limitation, and evidence of airway disease. They currently use a range of respiratory medications without any evidence base. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health; SPIROMICS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01969344.).

Association of Childhood Economic Hardship with Adult Height and Adult Adiposity among Hispanics/Latinos. The HCHS/SOL Socio-Cultural Ancillary Study.

The study examined the association of childhood and current economic hardship with anthropometric indices in Hispanic/Latino adults, using data from the HCHS/SOL Socio-cultural ancillary study (N = 5,084), a community-based study of Hispanic/Latinos living in four urban areas (Bronx, NY, Chicago, IL, Miami, FL, and San Diego, CA). Childhood economic hardship was defined as having experienced a period of time when one's family had trouble paying for basic needs (e.g., food, housing), and when this economic hardship occurred: between 0-12, 13-18 years old, or throughout both of those times. Current economic hardship was defined as experiencing trouble paying for basic needs during the past 12 months. Anthropometry included height, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and percentage body fat (%BF). Complex survey linear regression models were used to test the associations of childhood economic hardship with adult anthropometric indices, adjusting for potential confounders (e.g., age, sex, Hispanic background). Childhood economic hardship varied by Hispanic background, place of birth, and adult socio-economic status. Childhood economic hardship during both periods, childhood and adolescence, was associated with shorter height. Childhood economic hardship was associated with greater adiposity among US born individuals only. Current economic hardship was significantly associated with all three measures of adiposity (BMI, WC, %BF). These findings suggest that previous periods of childhood economic hardship appear to influence adult height more than adiposity, whereas current economic hardship may be a better determinant of adult adiposity in Hispanics.

Adiposity patterns and the risk for ESRD in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Body mass index and waist circumference associate with adverse health outcomes, including CKD. Studies of the association of body mass index and ESRD have been inconsistent; these adiposity measures have not been previously assessed together for ESRD risk or among postmenopausal women. DESIGN, SETTINGS, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: This was prospective cohort study of 20,117 postmenopausal women enrolled in the multiethnic cohort of the Women's Health Initiative. Body mass index and waist circumference were obtained at baseline, incident ESRD was obtained from the US Renal Data System, and all-cause death was obtained from surveillance data. A competing-risk framework was used to account for the effect of mortality before ESRD while adjusting for significant predictors and baseline kidney function. Associations of adiposity with mortality were also studied. RESULTS: Events included 212 patients with incident ESRD and 3104 deaths for a mean follow-up of 11.6 years. Increased waist circumference and body mass index were associated with 2.59- (95% confidence interval, 1.89 to 3.53) and 1.97-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 2.98) higher hazards of ESRD as well as 1.42- (95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 1.53) and 1.21-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.33) higher hazards of death, respectively, compared with the lower categories in adjusted analyses. The associations of waist circumference with ESRD varied by baseline renal function (P for interaction=0.01) and were significant only among women without baseline eGFR-defined CKD (hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 3.03). CONCLUSIONS: Central obesity was associated with an increased risk of ESRD in postmenopausal women, even among women with normal body mass index but not among women with reduced baseline kidney function, and an increased risk of death. Body mass index was associated with ESRD, and the association is likely mediated through hypertension and diabetes.

Viral suppression in HIV studies: combining times to suppression and rebound.

In HIV-1 clinical trials the interest is often to compare how well treatments suppress the HIV-1 RNA viral load. The current practice in statistical analysis of such trials is to define a single ad hoc composite event which combines information about both the viral load suppression and the subsequent viral rebound, and then analyze the data using standard univariate survival analysis techniques. The main weakness of this approach is that the results of the analysis can be easily influenced by minor details in the definition of the composite event. We propose a straightforward alternative endpoint based on the probability of being suppressed over time, and suggest that treatment differences be summarized using the restricted mean time a patient spends in the state of viral suppression. A nonparametric analysis is based on methods for multiple endpoint studies. We demonstrate the utility of our analytic strategy using a recent therapeutic trial, in which the protocol specified a primary analysis using a composite endpoint approach.

Number needed to treat for time-to-event data with competing risks.

The number needed to treat is a tool often used in clinical settings to illustrate the effect of a treatment. It has been widely adopted in the communication of risks to both clinicians and non-clinicians, such as patients, who are better able to understand this measure than absolute risk or rate reductions. The concept was introduced by Laupacis, Sackett, and Roberts in 1988 for binary data, and extended to time-to-event data by Altman and Andersen in 1999. However, up to the present, there is no definition of the number needed to treat for time-to-event data with competing risks. This paper introduces such a definition using the cumulative incidence function and suggests non-parametric and semi-parametric inferential methods for right-censored time-to-event data in the presence of competing risks. The procedures are illustrated using the data from a breast cancer clinical trial.

Multiple loci are associated with white blood cell phenotypes.

White blood cell (WBC) count is a common clinical measure from complete blood count assays, and it varies widely among healthy individuals. Total WBC count and its constituent subtypes have been shown to be moderately heritable, with the heritability estimates varying across cell types. We studied 19,509 subjects from seven cohorts in a discovery analysis, and 11,823 subjects from ten cohorts for replication analyses, to determine genetic factors influencing variability within the normal hematological range for total WBC count and five WBC subtype measures. Cohort specific data was supplied by the CHARGE, HeamGen, and INGI consortia, as well as independent collaborative studies. We identified and replicated ten associations with total WBC count and five WBC subtypes at seven different genomic loci (total WBC count-6p21 in the HLA region, 17q21 near ORMDL3, and CSF3; neutrophil count-17q21; basophil count- 3p21 near RPN1 and C3orf27; lymphocyte count-6p21, 19p13 at EPS15L1; monocyte count-2q31 at ITGA4, 3q21, 8q24 an intergenic region, 9q31 near EDG2), including three previously reported associations and seven novel associations. To investigate functional relationships among variants contributing to variability in the six WBC traits, we utilized gene expression- and pathways-based analyses. We implemented gene-clustering algorithms to evaluate functional connectivity among implicated loci and showed functional relationships across cell types. Gene expression data from whole blood was utilized to show that significant biological consequences can be extracted from our genome-wide analyses, with effect estimates for significant loci from the meta-analyses being highly corellated with the proximal gene expression. In addition, collaborative efforts between the groups contributing to this study and related studies conducted by the COGENT and RIKEN groups allowed for the examination of effect homogeneity for genome-wide significant associations across populations of diverse ancestral backgrounds.