The Associations Between United States Medical Licensing Examination Performance and Outcomes of Patient Care.

PURPOSE: The United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) comprises a series of assessments required for the licensure of U.S. MD-trained graduates as well as those who are trained internationally. Demonstration of a relationship between these examinations and outcomes of care is desirable for a process seeking to provide patients with safe and effective health care. METHOD: This was a retrospective cohort study of 196,881 hospitalizations in Pennsylvania over a 3-year period (January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019) for 5 primary diagnoses: heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, pneumonia, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The 1,765 attending physicians for these hospitalizations self-identified as family physicians or general internists. A converted score based on USMLE Step 1, Step 2 Clinical Knowledge, and Step 3 scores was available, and the outcome measures were in-hospital mortality and log length of stay (LOS). The research team controlled for characteristics of patients, hospitals, and physicians. RESULTS: For in-hospital mortality, the adjusted odds ratio was 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90, 0.99; P < .02). Each standard deviation increase in the converted score was associated with a 5.51% reduction in the odds of in-hospital mortality. For log LOS, the adjusted estimate was 0.99 (95% CI = 0.98, 0.99; P < .001). Each standard deviation increase in the converted score was associated with a 1.34% reduction in log LOS. CONCLUSIONS: Better provider USMLE performance was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and shorter log LOS for patients, although the magnitude of the latter is unlikely to be of practical significance. These findings add to the body of evidence that examines the validity of the USMLE licensure program.

On the Predictive Power of the In-Training Examination for the Certification of Anesthesiologist Assistants.

OBJECTIVES: In-training examinations (ITEs) are a popular teaching tool for certification programs. This study examines the relationship between examinees' performance on the National Commission for Certification of Anesthesiologist Assistants (NCCAA) ITE and the high-stakes NCCAA Certification Examination. METHODS: We utilized a mixed-methods approach in our study. Before estimating the models for the predictive validity study, a series of interviews with program directors were conducted to discuss the role of the ITE in students' education. Multiple linear regression analysis was then used to assess the strength of the relationship between the ITE and Certification Examination scores, while considering the percentage of program examinees completed in their anesthesiologist assistant program between their ITE and Certification Examination attempts. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the probability of passing the Certification Examination as a function of ITE score. RESULTS: Interviews with program directors confirmed that the ITE provided a valuable testing experience for students and highlighted the areas where students need to focus. Moreover, both the ITE score and the percentage of the program between exams were deemed statistically significant predictors for Certification Examination scores. The logistic regression model indicated that higher scores on the ITE implied a higher probability of passing the Certification Examination. CONCLUSION: This research demonstrated the high predictive validity of the ITE examination scores in predicting the Certification Examination outcomes. Together with the proportion of the program covered between exams, the variables explain a significant amount of variability in Certification Examination scores. The ITE feedback helped students assess their preparedness and better focus their studies for the high-stakes certification examination for the profession.

Cut-Score Operating Function Extensions: Penalty-Based Errors and Uncertainty in Standard Settings.

We model pass/fail examinations aiming to provide a systematic tool to minimize classification errors. We use the method of cut-score operating functions to generate specific cut-scores on the basis of minimizing several important misclassification measures. The goal of this research is to examine the combined effects of a known distribution of examinee abilities and uncertainty in the standard setting on the optimal choice of the cut-score. In addition, we describe an online application that allows others to utilize the cut-score operating function for their own standard settings.

Modeling Item Revisit Behavior: The Hierarchical Speed-Accuracy-Revisits Model.

This article presents a new approach to the analysis of how students answer tests and how they allocate resources in terms of time on task and revisiting previously answered questions. Previous research has shown that in high-stakes assessments, most test takers do not end the testing session early, but rather spend all of the time they were assigned to take the test. Rather than being an indication of speededness, this was found to be caused by test takers' tendency to revisit previous items even if they already provided answers to all questions. In accordance with this information, the proposed approach models revisit patterns simultaneously with responses and response times to gain a better understanding of the relationship between speed, ability, and revisit tendency. The empirical data analysis revealed that examinees' tendency to revisit items was strongly related to their speed and subgroups of examinees displayed different test-taking behaviors.

Investigating the Performance of Second Language Medical Students on Lengthy Clinical Vignettes.

This study evaluated the extent to which medical students with limited English-language experience are differentially impacted by the additional reading load of test items consisting of long clinical vignettes. Participants included 25,012 examinees who completed Step 2 of the U.S. Medical Licensing Examination®. Test items were categorized into five levels based on the number of words per item, and examinee scores at each level were evaluated as a function of English-language experience (English as a second language [ESL] status and scores on a test of English-speaking proficiency). The longest items were more difficult than the shortest items across all examinee groups, and examinees with more English-language experience scored higher than those with less experience across all five levels of word count. The effect of primary interest-the interaction of word count with English-language experience-was statistically significant, indicating that score declines for longer items were larger for examinees with less English-language experience; however, the magnitude of this interaction effect was barely detectable (η2 = .0004, p < .001). Additional analyses supported the conclusion that the differential effect for examinees with less English-language experience was small but worthy of continued monitoring.

The relationship between performance on the Infectious Diseases In-Training and Certification Examinations.

BACKGROUND: The Infectious Diseases Society of America In-Training Examination (IDSA ITE) is a feedback tool used to help fellows track their knowledge acquisition during fellowship training. We determined whether the scores on the IDSA ITE and from other major medical knowledge assessments predict performance on the American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) Infectious Disease Certification Examination. METHODS: The sample was 1021 second-year fellows who took the IDSA ITE and ABIM Infectious Disease Certification Examination from 2008 to 2012. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine if ABIM Infectious Disease Certification Examination scores were predicted by IDSA ITE scores, prior United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, ABIM Internal Medicine Certification Examination scores, fellowship director ratings of medical knowledge, and demographic variables. Logistic regression was used to evaluate if these same assessments predicted a passing outcome on the certification examination. RESULTS: IDSA ITE scores were the strongest predictor of ABIM Infectious Disease Certification Examination scores (ß = .319), followed by prior ABIM Internal Medicine Certification Examination scores (ß = .258), USMLE Step 1 scores (ß = .202), USMLE Step 3 scores (ß = .130), and fellowship directors' medical knowledge ratings (ß = .063). IDSA ITE scores were also a significant predictor of passing the Infectious Disease Certification Examination (odds ratio, 1.017 [95% confidence interval, 1.013-1.021]). CONCLUSIONS: The significant relationship between the IDSA ITE score and performance on the ABIM Infectious Disease Certification Examination supports the use of the ITE as a valid feedback tool in fellowship training.

Gathering evidence of external validity for the Foundations of Medicine examination: a collaboration between the National Board of Medical Examiners and the University of Minho.

BACKGROUND: To gather evidence of external validity for the Foundations of Medicine (FOM) examination by assessing the relationship between its subscores and local grades for a sample of Portuguese medical students. METHOD: Correlations were computed between six FOM subscores and nine Minho University grades for a sample of 90 medical students. A canonical correlation analysis was run between FOM and Minho measures. RESULTS: Moderate correlations were noted between FOM subscores and Minho grades, ranging from -0.02 to 0.53. One canonical correlation was statistically significant. The FOM variate accounted for 44% of variance in FOM subscores and 22% of variance in Minho end-of-year grades. The Minho canonical variate accounted for 34% of variance in Minho grades and 17% of the FOM subscore variances. CONCLUSIONS: The FOM examination seems to supplement local assessments by targeting constructs not currently measured. Therefore, it may contribute to a more comprehensive assessment of basic and clinical sciences knowledge.

Relationships among subcomponents of the USMLE Step 2 Clinical Skills Examination, the Step 1, and the Step 2 Clinical Knowledge Examinations.

BACKGROUND: This research examined relationships between and among scores from the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1, Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK), and subcomponents of the Step 2 Clinical Skills (CS) examination. METHOD: Correlations and failure rates were produced for first-time takers who tested during the first year of Step 2 CS Examination administration (June 2004 to July 2005). RESULTS: True-score correlations were high between patient note (PN) and data gathering (DG), moderate between communication and interpersonal skills and DG, and low between the remaining score pairs. There was little overlap between examinees failing Step 2 CK and the different components of Step 2 CS. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that combining DG and PN scores into a single composite score is reasonable and that relatively little redundancy exists between Step 2 CK and CS scores.