Adapting the Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 to Predict Mortality Using Responses to the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey.

OBJECTIVES: To use items from the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey (HOS) to adapt or validate a simple method for identifying community-dwelling older adults at greater risk of death and to extend the method to identify a very high-risk group. DESIGN: Analysis of longitudinal data. SETTING: National sample of beneficiaries from Medicare Advantage plans with 500 or more enrollees. PARTICIPANTS: Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older responding to 2009 baseline and 2011 follow-up HOS (N = 238,687). MEASUREMENTS: Bivariate and multivariate analyses of the HOS; adaptation and validation of a previously validated Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13) scoring system that uses age and self-reported function to predict mortality. RESULTS: A modified predictive model, that uses substitutes for several items in the previously validated VES-13, predicted 2-year mortality; 10.6% of those scoring 3 or more, and 2.4% of those scoring less than 3 died within 2 years (relative risk of death 4.4, similar to 4.2 for the original VES-13 sample), and 15.5% of those scoring 7 or more died within 2 years (relative risk of death (relative to scores <3) of 6.5). Sixteen percent of HOS beneficiaries were missing some data; 2-year mortality for those with missing items was 9.5%, versus 7.1% for those with no missing items (P < .001). Imputation of median values for missing VES-13 items results in valid predictions of mortality for those with partially missing data. CONCLUSION: The VES-13 algorithm is robust to substitution of functional items and can be used to identify very high-risk older adults. Multiple imputation of missing items reduces loss-to-follow-up bias and increases sample size.

Health-related quality of life and quality of care in specialized medicare-managed care plans.

Special needs plans (SNPs) were created under the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 to focus on Medicare beneficiaries who required more coordination of care than most beneficiaries served through the Medicare Advantage program. This research indicates that beneficiaries in 3 types of SNPs show evidence of worse health-related quality of life. Special needs plans demonstrated worse plan performance on the HEDIS osteoporosis testing in older women measure compared with non-SNP Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, but better plan performance on the HEDIS fall risk management measure. Future research should consider broader measures of plan performance, quality of care, and cost.

Obesity utilization and health-related quality of life in Medicare enrollees.

The obese, with disproportionate chronic disease incidence, consume a large share of health care resources and drive up per capita Medicare spending. This study examined the prevalence of obesity and its association with health status, health-related quality of life (HRQOL), function, and outpatient utilization among Medicare Advantage seniors. Results indicate that obese beneficiaries, much more than overweight beneficiaries, have poorer health, functions, and HRQOL than normal weight beneficiaries and have substantially higher outpatient utilization. While weight loss is beneficial to both the overweight and obese, the markedly worse health status and high utilization of obese beneficiaries may merit particular attention.