Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species.

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture-mark-recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.

Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.

Monitoring for the Management of Disease Risk in Animal Translocation Programmes.

Monitoring is best viewed as a component of some larger programme focused on science or conservation. The value of monitoring is determined by the extent to which it informs the parent process. Animal translocation programmes are typically designed to augment or establish viable animal populations without changing the local community in any detrimental way. Such programmes seek to minimize disease risk to local wild animals, to translocated animals, and in some cases to humans. Disease monitoring can inform translocation decisions by (1) providing information for state-dependent decisions, (2) assessing progress towards programme objectives, and (3) permitting learning in order to make better decisions in the future. Here we discuss specific decisions that can be informed by both pre-release and post-release disease monitoring programmes. We specify state variables and vital rates needed to inform these decisions. We then discuss monitoring data and analytic methods that can be used to estimate these state variables and vital rates. Our discussion is necessarily general, but hopefully provides a basis for tailoring disease monitoring approaches to specific translocation programmes.

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure.

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study.

Predator functional response and prey survival: direct and indirect interactions affecting a marked prey population.

1. Predation plays an integral role in many community interactions, with the number of predators and the rate at which they consume prey (i.e. their functional response) determining interaction strengths. Owing to the difficulty of directly observing predation events, attempts to determine the functional response of predators in natural systems are limited. Determining the forms that predator functional responses take in complex systems is important in advancing understanding of community interactions. 2. Prey survival has a direct relationship to the functional response of their predators. We employed this relationship to estimate the functional response for bald eagle Haliaeetus leucocepalus predation of Canada goose Branta canadensis nests. We compared models that incorporated eagle abundance, nest abundance and alternative prey presence to determine the form of the functional response that best predicted intra-annual variation in survival of goose nests. 3. Eagle abundance, nest abundance and the availability of alternative prey were all related to predation rates of goose nests by eagles. There was a sigmoidal relationship between predation rate and prey abundance and prey switching occurred when alternative prey was present. In addition, predation by individual eagles increased as eagle abundance increased. 4. A complex set of interactions among the three species examined in this study determined survival rates of goose nests. Results show that eagle predation had both prey- and predator-dependent components with no support for ratio dependence. In addition, indirect interactions resulting from the availability of alternative prey had an important role in mediating the rate at which eagles depredated nests. As a result, much of the within-season variation in nest survival was due to changing availability of alternative prey consumed by eagles. 5. Empirical relationships drawn from ecological theory can be directly integrated into the estimation process to determine the mechanisms responsible for variation in observed survival rates. The relationship between predator functional response and prey survival offers a flexible and robust method to advance our understanding of predator-prey interactions in many complex natural systems where prey populations are marked and regularly visited.

An adenovirus linked to mortality and disease in long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) in Alaska.

An adenovirus was isolated from intestinal samples of two long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) collected during a die-off in the Beaufort Sea off the north coast of Alaska in 2000. The virus was not neutralized by reference antiserum against known group I, II, or III avian adenoviruses and may represent a new serotype. The prevalence of the virus was determined in live-trapped long-tailed ducks at the mortality site and at a reference site 100 km away where no mortality was observed. Prevalence of adenovirus antibodies in serum samples at the mortality site was 86% compared to 10% at the reference site. Furthermore, 50% of cloacal swabs collected at the mortality site and only 7% of swabs from the reference site were positive for adenoviruses. In 2001, no mortality was observed at either of the study areas, and virus prevalence in both serum and cloacal samples was low, providing further evidence that the adenovirus was linked to the mortality event in 2000. The virus was used to infect long-tailed ducks under experimental conditions and resulted in lesions previously described for avian adenovirus infections and similar to those observed in long-tailed duck carcasses from the Beaufort Sea. The status of long-tailed ducks has recently become a concern in Alaska due to precipitous declines in breeding populations there since the mid-1970s. Our findings suggest that the newly isolated adenovirus is a disease agent and source of mortality in long-tailed ducks, and thus could be a contributing factor in population declines.

Concentrations of trace elements in eggs and blood of spectacled and common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA.

We examined the relations among nesting success, egg viability, and blood and egg concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Hg, and Se in a threatened population of spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri) and a sympatric population of common eiders (S. mollissima) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA, during 1995 and 1996. During the early breeding season, males and females had mean Se concentrations in their blood of 19.2 microg/g and 12.8 microg/g wet weight, respectively. Blood Se concentrations of females were correlated with egg concentrations. During brood rearing, blood Se levels were higher in adult females than in ducklings. Blood concentrations of Pb in spectacled eider females were higher than in common eider females captured at hatching, but blood concentrations of Se were similar. Trace element concentrations were not related to nest success or egg viability. We submit that nest success and egg viability of spectacled eiders are not related to concentrations of the trace elements we measured. Because blood Se concentrations declined rapidly through the breeding season and were not related to nest success or egg viability, we suggest that spectacled eiders are exposed to high concentrations of Se during winter that pose little threat to this population.