Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information.

Understanding how 1.5 °C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 °C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 °C target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO2/yr for the first five years following the pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO2/yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap.

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison.

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.

Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity.

Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community. This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself.

Poorly water-soluble drug nanoparticles via an emulsion-freeze-drying approach.

Low water solubility of a high percentage of pharmaceuticals is a big issue for pharmaceutical applications due to the resulting low bioabsorption and hence limited therapeutic efficacy. Preparation of drug nanoparticles has been one of the mostly investigated routes to address this problem. In this study, we reported the preparation of nanoparticles via an emulsion-freeze-drying approach. Indomethacin (IMC, a poorly water-soluble drug) nanoparticles were formed in situ within porous poly(vinyl alcohol). The IMC nanoparticles could be released into water to form stable nanodispersions simply by rapid dissolution of the porous polymeric scaffold. This study focused on how preparation conditions including phase volume ratios in the emulsions and the concentrations of polymer, surfactant and drug influenced the formation of IMC nanoparticles. It was concluded that the loading and size of IMC nanoparticles could be easily tuned by changing the preparation conditions.

Uploading and temperature-controlled release of polymeric colloids via hydrophilic emulsion-templated porous polymers.

Porous cross-linked poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM) was prepared using high internal phase emulsions as templates. The materials could absorb a large volume of water and swell largely at room temperature. When the aqueous phase was heated above the lower critical solution temperature (LCST) of PNIPAM, the swollen structure could contract and squeeze some of the absorbed liquids out. This capability was utilized in the uploading at room temperature and then release of polystyrene colloids by increasing the temperature above the LCST. The thermoresponsive porous PNIPAM acted like a pump to load and then release the polymer colloids. The multicycles of loading and release were demonstrated to show its efficiency. Importantly, it showed that most of the PS colloids from the second upload onward could be released during the heating cycle.

Medical students as family-health advocates: Arabian Gulf University experience.

BACKGROUND: The Arabian Gulf University is a coeducational Islamic institution in the Kingdom of Bahrain sponsored by the Gulf Cooperative Council. The College of Medicine follows a problem-based curriculum in which science is integrated with professional skills and a community-health programme, comprising of maternal and child health, family studies, and population-health research. The family-studies programme requires all third-year students to complete a wide series of activities under family-physician supervision. AIM: The aim of the study was to assess the performance of the programme with specific regard to students' family-health advocacy roles. METHOD: A trained community-health nurse administered a semistructured questionnaire based on family empowerment to 30 families. Themes included health-knowledge gains, positive changes in lifestyle and communication practices, and accessing community resources. RESULTS: All families reported a gain in relevant health knowledge, and a number of families reported positive changes in lifestyle. CONCLUSIONS: Students proved to be valuable advocates for families in this programme. Their principal role lay in the uncovering of psychosocial distress, but they were able also to offer practical help in lifestyle behaviour changes, communication, and community-resource use.