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1.
Perfusion ; : 2676591241237758, 2024 Apr 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38649154

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Most cardiac surgery clinical prediction models (CPMs) are developed using pre-operative variables to predict post-operative outcomes. Some CPMs are developed with intra-operative variables, but none are widely used. The objective of this systematic review was to identify CPMs with intra-operative variables that predict short-term outcomes following adult cardiac surgery. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched from inception to December 2022, for studies developing a CPM with at least one intra-operative variable. Data were extracted using a critical appraisal framework and bias assessment tool. Model performance was analysed using discrimination and calibration measures. RESULTS: A total of 24 models were identified. Frequent predicted outcomes were acute kidney injury (9/24 studies) and peri-operative mortality (6/24 studies). Frequent pre-operative variables were age (18/24 studies) and creatinine/eGFR (18/24 studies). Common intra-operative variables were cardiopulmonary bypass time (16/24 studies) and transfusion (13/24 studies). Model discrimination was acceptable for all internally validated models (AUC 0.69-0.91). Calibration was poor (15/24 studies) or unreported (8/24 studies). Most CPMs were at a high or indeterminate risk of bias (23/24 models). The added value of intra-operative variables was assessed in six studies with statistically significantly improved discrimination demonstrated in two. CONCLUSION: Weak reporting and methodological limitations may restrict wider applicability and adoption of existing CPMs that include intra-operative variables. There is some evidence that CPM discrimination is improved with the addition of intra-operative variables. Further work is required to understand the role of intra-operative CPMs in the management of cardiac surgery patients.

2.
Thorac Cardiovasc Surg ; 72(1): 29-39, 2024 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36750201

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The reporting of alternative postoperative measures of quality after cardiac surgery is becoming increasingly important as in-hospital mortality rates continue to decline. This study aims to systematically review and assess risk models designed to predict long-term outcomes after cardiac surgery. METHODS: The MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched for articles published between 1990 and 2020. Studies developing or validating risk prediction models for long-term outcomes after cardiac surgery were included. Data were extracted using checklists for critical appraisal and systematic review of prediction modeling studies. RESULTS: Eleven studies were identified for inclusion in the review, of which nine studies described the development of long-term risk prediction models after cardiac surgery and two were external validation studies. A total of 70 predictors were included across the nine models. The most frequently used predictors were age (n = 9), peripheral vascular disease (n = 8), renal disease (n = 8), and pulmonary disease (n = 8). Despite all models demonstrating acceptable performance on internal validation, only two models underwent external validation, both of which performed poorly. CONCLUSION: Nine risk prediction models predicting long-term mortality after cardiac surgery have been identified in this review. Statistical issues with model development, limited inclusion of outcomes beyond 5 years of follow-up, and a lack of external validation studies means that none of the models identified can be recommended for use in contemporary cardiac surgery. Further work is needed either to successfully externally validate existing models or to develop new models. Newly developed models should aim to use standardized long-term specific reproducible outcome measures.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Humanos , Resultado do Tratamento , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/efeitos adversos , Prognóstico
3.
Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis ; 18: 2405-2416, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37955026

RESUMO

Background: No single biomarker currently risk stratifies chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients at the time of an exacerbation, though previous studies have suggested that patients with elevated troponin at exacerbation have worse outcomes. This study evaluated the relationship between peak cardiac troponin and subsequent major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including all-cause mortality and COPD hospital readmission, among patients admitted with COPD exacerbation. Methods: Data from five cross-regional hospitals in England were analysed using the National Institute of Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative (NIHR-HIC) acute coronary syndrome database (2008-2017). People hospitalised with a COPD exacerbation were included, and peak troponin levels were standardised relative to the 99th percentile (upper limit of normal). We used Cox Proportional Hazard models adjusting for age, sex, laboratory results and clinical risk factors, and implemented logarithmic transformation (base-10 logarithm). The primary outcome was risk of MACE within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. Secondary outcome was risk of COPD readmission within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. Results: There were 2487 patients included. Of these, 377 (15.2%) patients had a MACE event and 203 (8.2%) were readmitted within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. A total of 1107 (44.5%) patients had an elevated troponin level. Of 1107 patients with elevated troponin at exacerbation, 256 (22.8%) had a MACE event and 101 (9.0%) a COPD readmission within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. Patients with troponin above the upper limit of normal had a higher risk of MACE (adjusted HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.75-2.77) and COPD hospital readmission (adjusted HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.02-1.83) when compared with patients without elevated troponin. Conclusion: An elevated troponin level at the time of COPD exacerbation may be a useful tool for predicting MACE in COPD patients. The relationship between degree of troponin elevation and risk of future events is complex and requires further investigation.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Humanos , Readmissão do Paciente , Hospitalização , Troponina , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia
4.
J Geriatr Oncol ; 14(8): 101635, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37812970

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Despite octogenarians representing an ever-increasing proportion of patients with lung cancer, there is a paucity of evidence describing outcomes after lung resection for these patients. We aimed to evaluate short and mid-term outcomes for octogenarians after lung resection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 5,470 consecutive patients undergoing lung resection for primary lung cancer from 2012-2019 in two UK centres were included. Primary outcomes were perioperative, 90-day, and one-year mortality in the octogenarian vs. non-octogenarian cohort. Appropriate statistical tests were used to compare outcomes between octogenarian and non-octogenarian patients. Secondary outcomes were post-operative complications and to validate the performance of the Thoracoscore model in the octogenarian cohort. RESULTS: Overall, 9.4% (n=513) of patients were aged ≥80. The rates of 90-day mortality, one-year mortality, and post-operative atrial fibrillation were significantly higher for octogenarians. The one-year mortality rate for octogenarians fell significantly over time (2012-2015: 16.5% vs 2016-2019: 10.2%, p=0.034). Subgroup analysis (2016-2019 only) demonstrated no significant difference in peri-operative, 90-day, or one-year mortality between octogenarian and non-octogenarian patients. Validation of the Thoracoscore model demonstrated modest discrimination and acceptable calibration. DISCUSSION: Mortality for octogenarians fell significantly over time in this study. Indeed, when confined to the most recent time period, comparable rates of both 90-day and one-year mortality for octogenarian and non-octogenarian patients were seen. Whilst preventative strategies to reduce the incidence of post-operative atrial fibrillation in octogenarians should be considered, these findings demonstrate that following appropriate patient selection, octogenarians can safely undergo lung resection for lung cancer.


Assuntos
Fibrilação Atrial , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Humanos , Idoso , Octogenários , Neoplasias Pulmonares/cirurgia , Resultado do Tratamento , Estudos Retrospectivos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia
5.
J Cardiothorac Surg ; 18(1): 252, 2023 Aug 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37620956

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Performing wedge resection rather than lobectomy for primary lung cancer remains controversial. Recent studies demonstrate no survival advantage for non-anatomical resection compared to lobectomy in patients with early-stage lung cancer. The objective of this study was to investigate whether in patients with T1 tumours, non-anatomical wedge resection is associated with equivalent survival to lobectomy. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent lung resection at the Lancashire Cardiac Centre between April 2005 and April 2018. Patients were subjected to multidisciplinary team discussion. The extent of resection was decided by the team based on British Thoracic Society guidelines. The primary outcome was overall survival. Propensity matching of patients with T1 tumours was also performed to determine whether differences in survival rates exist in a subset of these patients with balanced pre-operative characteristics. RESULTS: There were 187 patients who underwent non-anatomical wedge resection and 431 patients who underwent lobectomy. Cox modelling demonstrated no survival difference between groups for the first 1.6 years then a risk of death 3-fold higher for wedge resection group after 1.6 years (HR 3.14, CI 1.98-4.79). Propensity matching yielded 152 pairs for which 5-year survival was 66.2% for the lobectomy group and 38.5% for the non-anatomical wedge group (SMD = 0.58, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Non-anatomical wedge resection was associated with significantly reduced 5-year survival compared to lobectomy in matched patients. Lobectomy should remain the standard of care for patients with early-stage lung cancer who are fit enough to undergo surgical resection.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/cirurgia , Coração , Tórax
6.
BMJ Open ; 13(7): e066873, 2023 07 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37419643

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Data on population healthcare utilisation (HCU) across both primary and secondary care during the COVID-19 pandemic are lacking. We describe primary and secondary HCU stratified by long-term conditions (LTCs) and deprivation, during the first 19 months of COVID-19 pandemic across a large urban area in the UK. DESIGN: A retrospective, observational study. SETTING: All primary and secondary care organisations that contributed to the Greater Manchester Care Record throughout 30 December 2019 to 1 August 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 3 225 169 patients who were registered with or attended a National Health Service primary or secondary care service during the study period. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Primary care HCU (incident prescribing and recording of healthcare information) and secondary care HCU (planned and unplanned admissions) were assessed. RESULTS: The first national lockdown was associated with reductions in all primary HCU measures, ranging from 24.7% (24.0% to 25.5%) for incident prescribing to 84.9% (84.2% to 85.5%) for cholesterol monitoring. Secondary HCU also dropped significantly for planned (47.4% (42.9% to 51.5%)) and unplanned admissions (35.3% (28.3% to 41.6%)). Only secondary care had significant reductions in HCU during the second national lockdown. Primary HCU measures had not recovered to prepandemic levels by the end of the study. The secondary admission rate ratio between multi-morbid patients and those without LTCs increased during the first lockdown by a factor of 2.40 (2.05 to 2.82; p<0.001) for planned admissions and 1.25 (1.07 to 1.47; p=0.006) for unplanned admissions. No significant changes in this ratio were observed in primary HCU. CONCLUSION: Major changes in primary and secondary HCU were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondary HCU reduced more in those without LTCs and the ratio of utilisation between patients from the most and least deprived areas increased for the majority of HCU measures. Overall primary and secondary care HCU for some LTC groups had not returned to prepandemic levels by the end of the study.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Medicina Estatal , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Atenção à Saúde , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
9.
Ann Thorac Surg ; 114(5): 1654-1655, 2022 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35461786
10.
J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth ; 36(8 Pt A): 2393-2399, 2022 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35144870

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Despite an increasing proportion of patients undergoing lung resection being managed postoperatively in a ward-based environment, studies analyzing the impact of initial postoperative destination (IPD) on perioperative outcomes and unplanned critical care admission (UCCA) are lacking. DESIGN: A single-center retrospective review. SETTING: A cardiothoracic surgery center in the Northwest of England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3,841 patients between 2012 and 2018. INTERVENTIONS: All patients underwent lung resection. Patients were classified as either IPD ward or IPD critical care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcomes assessed included in-hospital and 90-day mortality and UCCA. Differences in mortality rates between groups were assessed using the chi-square test. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify variables independently associated with 90-day mortality and UCCA. In total, 23.8% (n = 913) of patients went to critical care as their IPD. Overall in-hospital mortality was 1.6% (n = 62), and 90-day mortality was 2.9% (n = 112). The rate of UCCA was 10.5% (n = 404) and was significantly higher for IPD ward patients compared to IPD critical care patients (11.9% v 6.2%, p < 0.001). The 90-day mortality rates after UCCA were 5.2% (IPD ward) and 19.3% (IPD critical care) (p < 0.001). Advanced age, worse pulmonary function, IPD ward, and timing of surgery were all independently associated with UCCA. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients undergoing lung resection can be managed safely postoperatively in a ward-based environment. Short-term mortality is higher after UCCA, with patients who experience readmission to critical care at the highest risk of death. Patients should receive additional monitoring immediately following discharge from critical care.


Assuntos
Cuidados Críticos , Hospitalização , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Pulmão , Readmissão do Paciente , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco
11.
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg ; 61(2): 449-456, 2022 Jan 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34448848

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to review the UK national trends in activity and outcome in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) over a 15-year period (2002-2016). METHODS: Validated data collected (2002-2016) and uploaded to National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research were used to generate summary data from the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Database for the analysis. Logistic European System of Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation was used for risk stratification with recalibration applied for governance. Data were analysed by financial year and presented as numerical, categorical, %, mean and standard deviation where appropriate. Mortality was recorded as death in hospital at any time after index CABG operation. RESULTS: A total of 347 626 CABG procedures (282 883 isolated CABG, 61 109 CABG and valve and 4132 redo CABG) were recorded. Over this period annual activity reduced from 66.6% of workload to 41.7%. The mean age for isolated CABG was 65.7 years. The mean log European System of Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation was 3.1, 5.9 and 23.2 for elective, urgent and emergency isolated CABG, respectively. There was a decline in the observed mortality for all procedures. Overall mortality for isolated CABG surgery is now 1.0% and only 0.6% for elective operations. CONCLUSIONS: Quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality rates have consistently improved over the last 15 years despite the increasing risk profile of patients. There have been a consistent decline in overall case volumes and a three-fold increase in elderly cases.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Adulto , Idoso , Ponte de Artéria Coronária/métodos , Bases de Dados Factuais , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Resultado do Tratamento , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
12.
J Surg Res ; 270: 271-278, 2022 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34715539

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Intraoperative mediastinal lymph node sampling (MLNS) is a crucial component of lung cancer surgery. Whilst several sampling strategies have been clearly defined in guidelines from international organizations, reports of adherence to these guidelines are lacking. We aimed to assess our center's adherence to guidelines and determine whether adequacy of sampling is associated with survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A single-center retrospective review of consecutive patients undergoing lung resection for primary lung cancer between January 2013 and December 2018 was undertaken. Sampling adequacy was assessed against standards outlined in the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer 2009 guidelines. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess the impact of specific variables on adequacy and of specific variables on overall survival, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 2380 patients were included in the study. Overall adequacy was 72.1% (n= 1717). Adherence improved from 44.8% in 2013 to 85.0% in 2018 (P< 0.001). Undergoing a right-sided resection increased the odds of adequate MLNS on multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio 1.666, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.385-2.003, P< 0.001). Inadequate MLNS was not significantly associated with reduced overall survival on log rank analysis (P= 0.340) or after adjustment with multivariable Cox proportional hazards (hazard ratio 0.839, 95% CI 0.643-1.093). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to standards improved significantly over time and was significantly higher for right-sided resections. We found no evidence of an association between adequate MLNS and overall survival in this cohort. A pressing need remains for the introduction of national guidelines defining acceptable performance.


Assuntos
Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas/cirurgia , Humanos , Pulmão/patologia , Excisão de Linfonodo , Linfonodos/patologia , Linfonodos/cirurgia , Metástase Linfática/patologia , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Pneumonectomia , Estudos Retrospectivos
14.
J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth ; 36(5): 1373-1379, 2022 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34538557

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Although some evidence to suggest an association between preoperative anemia and reduced overall survival exists, contemporary studies investigating the impact of preoperative anemia on outcomes after resection for primary lung cancer are lacking. DESIGN: A multicenter retrospective review. SETTING: Two tertiary cardiothoracic surgery centers in the Northwest of England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5,029 patients between 2012 and 2018. INTERVENTIONS: All patients underwent lung resection for primary lung cancer. Patients were classified as anemic based on the World Health Organization definition. Men with hemoglobin <130 g/L and women with hemoglobin <120 g/L were considered to be anemic. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcomes assessed included perioperative mortality, 90-day mortality, and overall survival. Multivariate logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the impact of preoperative anemia on 90-day mortality and overall survival, respectively. Overall, preoperatively, 24.0% (n = 1207) of patients were anemic. The 90-day mortality for anemic and nonanemic patients was 5.6% and 3.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment, preoperative anemia was not associated with increased 90-day mortality. However, a log-rank analysis demonstrated reduced overall survival for anemic patients (p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment, preoperative anemia was found to be independently associated with reduced overall survival (hazard ratio 1.287, 95% confidence interval 1.141-1.451, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although anemia was not an independent predictor of short-term outcomes, it was independently associated with significantly reduced survival for patients undergoing resection for lung cancer. Further work is required to understand why anemia reduces long-term survival and whether pathways for anemic patients can be adapted to improve long-term outcomes.


Assuntos
Anemia , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Anemia/complicações , Anemia/diagnóstico , Anemia/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Hemoglobinas , Humanos , Pulmão , Neoplasias Pulmonares/complicações , Neoplasias Pulmonares/cirurgia , Masculino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco
15.
Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg ; 34(4): 532-539, 2022 03 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34788460

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to review national trends in activity and hospital outcomes in older patients having cardiac surgery over a 15-year time period. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively and uploaded to the National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research electronically. Data were validated, cleaned and processed using reproducible algorithms. Mortality was death in hospital after index operation. RESULTS: A total of 227 442 cardiac procedures were recorded in patients aged ≥70 years of which 46 354 were in those aged ≥80 years. Overall patients aged ≥70 years represented 43% of all adult cardiac surgery in the most recent study year. The annual proportion of surgery in patients ≥80 years increased from 4.1% to 10.8% between the first and last study years. There has been a significant linear increase in octogenarian valve [ß 67.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 55.04 to 79.83, P < 0.001] and coronary artery bypass graft surgery (ß 32.53, 95% CI 6.16 to 58.90, P = 0.020) patients. In-hospital mortality reduced significantly for patients aged 70-79 years (ß -0.17, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.13, P < 0.001) and all patients aged ≥80 (ß -0.37, 95% CI -0.45 to -0.30, P < 0.001). The median length of hospital stay was 7 days for 70-79 and 9 days for ≥80 group, compared with 7 days for the whole cohort <70 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the largest complete validated national dataset of cardiac surgery in the entire population of older patients. Octogenarians represent 11% of adult patients having cardiac surgery by the end of the study period, a three-fold increase from the start. In-hospital mortality in patients aged ≥80 years halved during study period to only 4% despite high logistic EuroSCORE of 15%. Cardiac surgery in octogenarians places a higher demand on resources, however, with an increased postoperative length of stay.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/efeitos adversos , Ponte de Artéria Coronária/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitais , Humanos , Tempo de Internação , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos
16.
Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg ; 34(6): 1054-1061, 2022 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34871415

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Despite the increased rate of adverse outcomes compared to lobectomy, for selected patients with lung cancer, pneumonectomy is considered the optimal treatment option. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for mortality in patients undergoing pneumonectomy for primary lung cancer. METHODS: Data from all patients undergoing pneumonectomy for primary lung cancer at 2 large thoracic surgical centres between 2012 and 2018 were analysed. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to identify risk factors associated with 90-day and 1-year mortality and reduced long-term survival, respectively. RESULTS: The study included 256 patients. The mean age was 65.2 (standard deviation 9.4) years. In-hospital, 90-day and 1-year mortality were 6.3% (n = 16), 9.8% (n = 25) and 28.1% (n = 72), respectively. The median follow-up time was 31.5 months (interquartile range 9-58 months). Patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy had a significantly increased risk of 90-day [odds ratio 6.451, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.867-22.291, P = 0.003] and 1-year mortality (odds ratio 2.454, 95% CI 1.079-7.185, P = 0.044). Higher Performance Status score was associated with higher 1-year mortality (odds ratio 2.055, 95% CI 1.248-3.386, P = 0.005) and reduced overall survival (hazard ratio 1.449, 95% CI 1.086-1.934, P = 0.012). Advanced (stage III/IV) disease was associated with reduced overall survival (hazard ratio 1.433, 95% CI 1.019-2.016, P = 0.039). Validation of a pneumonectomy-specific risk model demonstrated inadequate model performance (area under the curve 0.54). CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonectomy remains associated with a high rate of perioperative mortality. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, Performance Status score and advanced disease emerged as the key variables associated with adverse outcomes after pneumonectomy in our cohort.


Assuntos
Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Idoso , Humanos , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Pneumonectomia/efeitos adversos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Resultado do Tratamento
17.
Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg ; 33(6): 921-927, 2021 11 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34324664

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The ability to accurately estimate the risk of peri-operative mortality after lung resection is important. There are concerns about the performance and validity of existing models developed for this purpose, especially when predicting mortality within 90 days of surgery. The aim of this study was therefore to develop a clinical prediction model for mortality within 90 days of undergoing lung resection. METHODS: A retrospective database of patients undergoing lung resection in two UK centres between 2012 and 2018 was used to develop a multivariable logistic risk prediction model, with bootstrap sampling used for internal validation. Apparent and adjusted measures of discrimination (area under receiving operator characteristic curve) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope) were assessed as measures of model performance. RESULTS: Data were available for 6600 lung resections for model development. Predictors included in the final model were age, sex, performance status, percentage predicted diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, anaemia, serum creatinine, pre-operative arrhythmia, right-sided resection, number of resected bronchopulmonary segments, open approach and malignant diagnosis. Good model performance was demonstrated, with adjusted area under receiving operator characteristic curve, calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope values (95% confidence intervals) of 0.741 (0.700, 0.782), 0.006 (-0.143, 0.156) and 0.870 (0.679, 1.060), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The RESECT-90 model demonstrates good statistical performance for the prediction of 90-day mortality after lung resection. A project to facilitate large-scale external validation of the model to ensure that the model retains accuracy and is transferable to other centres in different geographical locations is currently underway.


Assuntos
Pulmão , Modelos Estatísticos , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco
18.
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg ; 60(6): 1353-1357, 2021 12 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34021313

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Since the turn of the century, cardiac surgery has evolved quite notably. This study sought to investigate the trends in aortic valve surgery activity and subsequent outcomes in the UK by using a mandatory national cardiac surgical clinical database within the context of a comprehensive public healthcare system (National Health Service). METHODS: The UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit database provided data for aortic valve surgery procedures performed between 2002 and 2016, and the data were validated and cleaned using reproducible algorithms. The findings and trends in in activity and outcomes were then analysed by financial year. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 148 862 procedures were performed, with the number of cases per year peaking in 2014/2015 at 12 483. The mean in-hospital mortality rate for all aortic valve surgery has fallen from 5.6% to 3.4%, despite an increase in patient age and mean logistic EuroSCORE. While the number of isolated aortic valve replacements has remained stable at around 5000 per year, aortic valve replacement and coronary artery bypass graft have increased to over 3200 with transcatheter aortic valve implantation activity continuing to increase. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that despite an increase in patient risk profile, there has been a consistent reduction in in-hospital mortality within all aortic valve surgery procedures performed in the UK over a 15-year period. Increasing catheter-based interventions have not yet resulted in a significant decrease in surgical aortic valve replacements in the UK.


Assuntos
Estenose da Valva Aórtica , Implante de Prótese de Valva Cardíaca , Substituição da Valva Aórtica Transcateter , Adulto , Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Implante de Prótese de Valva Cardíaca/métodos , Humanos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Medicina Estatal , Resultado do Tratamento , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
19.
J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth ; 35(7): 2166-2179, 2021 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33773889

RESUMO

Readmission to the cardiac intensive care unit after cardiac surgery has significant implications for both patients and healthcare providers. Identifying patients at risk of readmission potentially could improve outcomes. The objective of this systematic review was to identify risk factors and clinical prediction models for readmission within a single hospitalization to intensive care after cardiac surgery. PubMed, MEDLINE, and EMBASE databases were searched to identify candidate articles. Only studies that used multivariate analyses to identify independent predictors were included. There were 25 studies and five risk prediction models identified. The overall rate of readmission pooled across the included studies was 4.9%. In all 25 studies, in-hospital mortality and duration of hospital stay were higher in patients who experienced readmission. Recurring predictors for readmission were preoperative renal failure, age >70, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction <30%, type and urgency of surgery, prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time, prolonged postoperative ventilation, postoperative anemia, and neurologic dysfunction. The majority of readmissions occurred due to respiratory and cardiac complications. Four models were identified for predicting readmission, with one external validation study. As all models developed to date had limitations, further work on larger datasets is required to develop clinically useful models to identify patients at risk of readmission to the cardiac intensive care unit after cardiac surgery.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Readmissão do Paciente , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/efeitos adversos , Cuidados Críticos , Hospitalização , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Tempo de Internação , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/diagnóstico , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Volume Sistólico , Função Ventricular Esquerda
20.
Clin Lung Cancer ; 22(4): e642-e645, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33478911

RESUMO

Operative mortality is an important outcome for patients, surgeons, healthcare institutions, and policy makers. Although measures of perioperative mortality have conventionally been limited to in-hospital and 30-day mortality (or a composite endpoint combining both), there is a large body of evidence emerging to support the extension of the perioperative period after lung resection to a minimum of 90 days after surgery. Several large-volume studies from centers across the world have reported that 90-day mortality after lung resection is double 30-day mortality. Hence, true perioperative mortality after lung resection is likely to be significantly higher than what is currently reported. In the contemporary era, where new treatment modalities such as stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy are emerging as viable nonsurgical alternatives for the treatment of lung cancer, accurate estimation of perioperative risk and reliable reporting of perioperative mortality are of particular importance. It is likely that shifting the discussion from 30-day to 90-day mortality will lead to altered decision making, particularly for specific patient subgroups at an increased risk of 90-day mortality. We believe that 90-day mortality should be adopted as the standard measure of perioperative mortality after lung resection and that strategies to reduce the risk of mortality within 90 days of surgery should be investigated.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares/cirurgia , Pneumonectomia/métodos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/mortalidade , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidade , Período Perioperatório , Taxa de Sobrevida , Fatores de Tempo
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