Protocol for the Prone and Oscillation Pediatric Clinical Trial (PROSpect).

OBJECTIVES: Respiratory management for pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (PARDS) remains largely supportive without data to support one approach over another, including supine versus prone positioning (PP) and conventional mechanical ventilation (CMV) versus high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV). DESIGN: We present the research methodology of a global, multicenter, two-by-two factorial, response-adaptive, randomized controlled trial of supine versus PP and CMV versus HFOV in high moderate-severe PARDS, the Prone and Oscillation Pediatric Clinical Trial (PROSpect, www.ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03896763). SETTING: Approximately 60 PICUs with on-site extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support in North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania with experience using PP and HFOV in the care of patients with PARDS. PATIENTS: Eligible pediatric patients (2 wk old or older and younger than 21 yr) are randomized within 48 h of meeting eligibility criteria occurring within 96 h of endotracheal intubation. INTERVENTIONS: One of four arms, including supine/CMV, prone/CMV, supine/HFOV, or prone/HFOV. We hypothesize that children with high moderate-severe PARDS treated with PP or HFOV will demonstrate greater than or equal to 2 additional ventilator-free days (VFD). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome is VFD through day 28; nonsurvivors receive zero VFD. Secondary and exploratory outcomes include nonpulmonary organ failure-free days, interaction effects of PP with HFOV on VFD, 90-day in-hospital mortality, and among survivors, duration of mechanical ventilation, PICU and hospital length of stay, and post-PICU functional status and health-related quality of life. Up to 600 patients will be randomized, stratified by age group and direct/indirect lung injury. Adaptive randomization will first occur 28 days after 300 patients are randomized and every 100 patients thereafter. At these randomization updates, new allocation probabilities will be computed based on intention-to-treat trial results, increasing allocation to well-performing arms and decreasing allocation to poorly performing arms. Data will be analyzed per intention-to-treat for the primary analyses and per-protocol for primary, secondary, and exploratory analyses. CONCLUSIONS: PROSpect will provide clinicians with data to inform the practice of PP and HFOV in PARDS.

The Design of an Adaptive Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

BACKGROUND: Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is a promising therapy for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) that is refractory to standard therapy, but no multicenter randomized clinical trials have been conducted to establish its efficacy. We report the design and operating characteristics of a proposed randomized Bayesian adaptive "enrichment" clinical trial designed to determine whether ECPR is effective for refractory OHCA and, if effective, to define the interval after arrest during which patients derive benefit. METHODS: Through iterative trial simulation and trial design modification, we developed a Bayesian adaptive trial of ECPR for adults who experience non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Our proposed trial design addresses the threats to trial success identified during the design process, which were (1) the uncertainty surrounding the cardiac arrest (CA)-to-ECPR interval within which clinical benefit might be preserved (2) the difference in prognosis between patients with an initial rhythm that is non-shockable vs. shockable. Trial subjects will be randomized 1:1 to receive either standard care or expedited transport to a hospital for potential ECPR. The CA-to-ECPR interval will be estimated in real time based on the sum of the estimated paramedic response time (911 call to scene arrival), paramedic scene time, and transport time to hospital. A Bayesian decreasing step function will be used to estimate the efficacy of the treatment with an outcome of the 90-day utility-weighted Modified Rankin Scale (uwmRS) for each rhythm subgroup and estimated CA-to-ECPR interval at pre-specified interims. The trial will adaptively lengthen the estimated CA-to-ECPR eligibility window if the treatment appears effective at the upper limit of initial eligibility window. If ECPR appears ineffective at longer estimated CA-to-ECPR intervals, the upper limit of the window for enrollment eligibility will be shortened. The analysis will be stratified by rhythm subgroup. RESULTS: With a maximum total sample size of 400, and a cap on the maximum sample size of 300 for the non-shockable rhythm subgroup, the trial design has power ranging from 91-100% to detect a benefit from ECPR for non-shockable rhythms under the various efficacy scenarios simulated and power ranging from 69-98% for shockable rhythms under the same scenarios. The trial design also has a high probability of correctly identifying the maximum CA-to-ECPR interval within which ECPR produces a clinically significant benefit of 0.2 on the uwMRS. If ECPR is equivalent to standard CA care, the type I error is 2.5% with a 99% probability of stopping enrollment early for futility in the non-shockable subgroup and a 97% probability of stopping enrollment early for futility in the shockable subgroup. CONCLUSION: This proposed adaptive trial design helps to ensure the population of patients who are most likely to benefit from treatment-as defined both by rhythm subgroup and estimated CA-to-ECPR interval-is enrolled. The design promotes early termination of the trial if continuation is likely to be futile.

A platform in the use of medicines to treat chronic hepatitis C (PLATINUM C): protocol for a prospective treatment registry of real-world outcomes for hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Safe, highly curative, short course, direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are now available to treat chronic hepatitis C. DAA therapy is freely available to all adults chronically infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Australia. If left untreated, hepatitis C may lead to progressive hepatic fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Australia is committed to eliminating hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030 set by the World Health Organization. However, since the introduction of funded DAA treatment, uptake has been suboptimal. Australia needs improved strategies for testing, treatment uptake and treatment completion to address the persisting hepatitis C public health problem. PLATINUM C is a HCV treatment registry and research platform for assessing the comparative effectiveness of alternative interventions for achieving virological cure. METHODS: PLATINUM C will prospectively enrol people with active HCV infection confirmed by recent detection of HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) in blood. Those enrolled will agree to allow standardised collection of demographic, lifestyle, treatment, virological outcome and other relevant clinical data to better inform the future management of HCV infection. The primary outcome is virological cure evidenced by sustained virological response (SVR), which is defined as a negative HCV PCR result 6 to 18 months after initial prescription of DAA therapy and no less than 12 weeks after the completion of treatment. Study participants will be invited to opt-in to medication adherence monitoring and quality of life assessments using validated self-reported instruments (EQ-5D-5L). DISCUSSION: PLATINUM C is a treatment registry and platform for nesting pragmatic trials. Data collected will inform the design, development and implementation of pragmatic trials. The digital infrastructure, study procedures and governing systems established by the registry will allow PLATINUM C to support a wider research platform in the management of hepatitis C in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered with the Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register ( ACTRN12619000023156 ). Date of registration: 10/01/2019.

The ORVAC trial: a phase IV, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial of a third scheduled dose of Rotarix rotavirus vaccine in Australian Indigenous infants to improve protection against gastroenteritis: a statistical analysis plan.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, adaptive design trial with frequent interim analyses is to determine if Australian Indigenous children, who receive an additional (third) dose of human rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix, GlaxoSmithKline) for children aged 6 to < 12 months, would improve protection against clinically significant all-cause gastroenteritis. PARTICIPANTS: Up to 1000 Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (hereafter Indigenous) infants aged 6 to < 12 months will be recruited from all regions of the Northern Territory. INTERVENTIONS: The intervention is the addition of a third scheduled dose of human monovalent rotavirus vaccine. CO-PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: ORVAC has two co-primary outcomes: (1) anti-rotavirus IgA seroconversion, defined as serum anti-rotavirus IgA ≥ 20 U/ml 28 to 55 days post Rotarix/placebo, and (2) time from randomisation to medical attendance for which the primary reason for presentation is acute gastroenteritis or acute diarrhoea illness before age 36 months. Secondary outcomes include (1) change in anti-rotavirus IgA log titre, (2) time from randomisation to hospitalisation with primary admission code presumed or confirmed acute diarrhoea illness before age 36 months, (3) time from randomisation to hospitalisation for which the admission is rotavirus confirmed diarrhoea illness before age 36 months and (4) time from randomisation to rotavirus infection (not necessarily requiring hospitalisation) meeting the jurisdictional definition before age 36 months. DISCUSSION: A detailed, prospective statistical analysis plan is presented for this Bayesian adaptive design. The plan was written by the trial statistician and details the study design, pre-specified adaptative elements, decision thresholds, statistical methods and the simulations used to evaluate the operating characteristics of the trial. As at August 2020, four interim analyses have been run, but no stopping rules have been triggered. Application of this SAP will minimise bias and supports transparent and reproducible research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02941107. Registered on 21 October 2016 ORIGINAL PROTOCOL FOR THE STUDY: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-032549.

Effect of Selepressin vs Placebo on Ventilator- and Vasopressor-Free Days in Patients With Septic Shock: The SEPSIS-ACT Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Norepinephrine, the first-line vasopressor for septic shock, is not always effective and has important catecholaminergic adverse effects. Selepressin, a selective vasopressin V1a receptor agonist, is a noncatecholaminergic vasopressor that may mitigate sepsis-induced vasodilatation, vascular leakage, and edema, with fewer adverse effects. OBJECTIVE: To test whether selepressin improves outcome in septic shock. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: An adaptive phase 2b/3 randomized clinical trial comprising 2 parts that included adult patients (n = 868) with septic shock requiring more than 5 µg/min of norepinephrine. Part 1 used a Bayesian algorithm to adjust randomization probabilities to alternative selepressin dosing regimens and to trigger transition to part 2, which would compare the best-performing regimen with placebo. The trial was conducted between July 2015 and August 2017 in 63 hospitals in Belgium, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and the United States, and follow-up was completed by May 2018. INTERVENTIONS: Random assignment to 1 of 3 dosing regimens of selepressin (starting infusion rates of 1.7, 2.5, and 3.5 ng/kg/min; n = 585) or to placebo (n = 283), all administered as continuous infusions titrated according to hemodynamic parameters. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary end point was ventilator- and vasopressor-free days within 30 days (deaths assigned zero days) of commencing study drug. Key secondary end points were 90-day mortality, kidney replacement therapy-free days, and ICU-free days. RESULTS: Among 868 randomized patients, 828 received study drug (mean age, 66.3 years; 341 [41.2%] women) and comprised the primary analysis cohort, of whom 562 received 1 of 3 selepressin regimens, 266 received placebo, and 817 (98.7%) completed the trial. The trial was stopped for futility at the end of part 1. Median study drug duration was 37.8 hours (IQR, 17.8-72.4). There were no significant differences in the primary end point (ventilator- and vasopressor-free days: 15.0 vs 14.5 in the selepressin and placebo groups; difference, 0.6 [95% CI, -1.3 to 2.4]; P = .30) or key secondary end points (90-day mortality, 40.6% vs 39.4%; difference, 1.1% [95% CI, -6.5% to 8.8%]; P = .77; kidney replacement therapy-free days: 18.5 vs 18.2; difference, 0.3 [95% CI, -2.1 to 2.6]; P = .85; ICU-free days: 12.6 vs 12.2; difference, 0.5 [95% CI, -1.2 to 2.2]; P = .41). Adverse event rates included cardiac arrhythmias (27.9% vs 25.2% of patients), cardiac ischemia (6.6% vs 5.6%), mesenteric ischemia (3.2% vs 2.6%), and peripheral ischemia (2.3% vs 2.3%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with septic shock receiving norepinephrine, administration of selepressin, compared with placebo, did not result in improvement in vasopressor- and ventilator-free days within 30 days. Further research would be needed to evaluate the potential role of selepressin for other patient-centered outcomes in septic shock. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02508649.

First granted example of novel FDA trial design under Expedited Access Pathway for premarket approval: BeAT-HF.

BACKGROUND: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initiated the Expedited Access Pathway (EAP) to accelerate approval of novel therapies targeting unmet needs for life-threatening conditions. EAP allows for the possibility of initial FDA approval using intermediate end points with postapproval demonstration of improved outcomes. OBJECTIVE: Describe the EAP process using the BeAT-HF trial as a case study. METHODS: BeAT-HF will examine the safety and effectiveness of baroreflex activation therapy (BAT) in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction using an Expedited and Extended Phase design. In the Expedited Phase, BAT plus guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) will be compared at 6 months postimplant to GDMT alone using 3 intermediate end points: 6-minute hall walk distance, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. The rate of heart failure morbidity and cardiovascular mortality will be compared between the arms to evaluate early trending using predictive probability modeling. Sample size of 264 patients randomized 1:1 to BAT + GDMT versus GDMT alone provides 81% power for the Expedited Phase intermediate end points. For the Extended Phase, the heart failure morbidity and cardiovascular mortality end point is based on an expected event rate of 0.4 events/patient/year in the GDMT arm. With an adaptive sample size selection design for robustness to inaccurate assumptions, a sample size of 480-960 randomized patients followed ≥2 years allows detecting a 30% reduction in the primary end point with a power of 97.5%. CONCLUSION: Through a unique collaboration with FDA under the EAP, the BeAT-HF trial design allows for the possibility of approval of BAT, initially for symptom relief and subsequently for outcomes improvement.

Rationale and Design of an Adaptive Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial of Selepressin for Adults in Septic Shock. Selepressin Evaluation Programme for Sepsis-induced Shock-Adaptive Clinical Trial.

Septic shock carries substantial morbidity and mortality. The failure of many promising therapies during late-phase clinical trials prompted calls for alternative trial designs. We describe an innovative trial evaluating selepressin, a novel selective vasopressin V1a receptor agonist, for adults with septic shock. SEPSIS-ACT (Selepressin Evaluation Programme for Sepsis-induced Shock-Adaptive Clinical Trial) is a blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled, two-part, adaptive phase 2b/3 trial, evaluating up to four selepressin dosing strategies. The primary outcome is pressor- and ventilator-free days, with a value of zero assigned for death within 30 days. We calculate Bayesian probabilities of final trial success to guide interim decision-making. Part 1 (dose-finding) has an adaptive sample size based on response-adaptive randomization and prespecified rules to determine stopping for futility or selection of the best dosing regimen for Part 2. Part 2 (confirmation) randomizes a minimum of 1,000 patients equally to the selected dosing regimen or placebo. The final estimate of treatment effect compares all selepressin-treated patients with all placebo-treated patients. The sample size of 1,800 provides 91% power to detect an increase of 1.5 pressor- and ventilator-free days with a reduction in mortality of 1.5%. The trial received a Special Protocol Assessment agreement from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Drug Evaluation and Research and is underway in Europe and the United States. SEPSIS-ACT is an innovative trial that addresses both optimal dose and confirmation of benefit, accelerating the evaluation of selepressin while mitigating risks to patients and sponsor through use of response-adaptive randomization, a novel registration endpoint, prespecified futility stopping rules, and a large sample size. Clinical Trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02508649).

Thrombectomy 6 to 24 Hours after Stroke with a Mismatch between Deficit and Infarct.

BACKGROUND: The effect of endovascular thrombectomy that is performed more than 6 hours after the onset of ischemic stroke is uncertain. Patients with a clinical deficit that is disproportionately severe relative to the infarct volume may benefit from late thrombectomy. METHODS: We enrolled patients with occlusion of the intracranial internal carotid artery or proximal middle cerebral artery who had last been known to be well 6 to 24 hours earlier and who had a mismatch between the severity of the clinical deficit and the infarct volume, with mismatch criteria defined according to age (<80 years or ≥80 years). Patients were randomly assigned to thrombectomy plus standard care (the thrombectomy group) or to standard care alone (the control group). The coprimary end points were the mean score for disability on the utility-weighted modified Rankin scale (which ranges from 0 [death] to 10 [no symptoms or disability]) and the rate of functional independence (a score of 0, 1, or 2 on the modified Rankin scale, which ranges from 0 to 6, with higher scores indicating more severe disability) at 90 days. RESULTS: A total of 206 patients were enrolled; 107 were assigned to the thrombectomy group and 99 to the control group. At 31 months, enrollment in the trial was stopped because of the results of a prespecified interim analysis. The mean score on the utility-weighted modified Rankin scale at 90 days was 5.5 in the thrombectomy group as compared with 3.4 in the control group (adjusted difference [Bayesian analysis], 2.0 points; 95% credible interval, 1.1 to 3.0; posterior probability of superiority, >0.999), and the rate of functional independence at 90 days was 49% in the thrombectomy group as compared with 13% in the control group (adjusted difference, 33 percentage points; 95% credible interval, 24 to 44; posterior probability of superiority, >0.999). The rate of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage did not differ significantly between the two groups (6% in the thrombectomy group and 3% in the control group, P=0.50), nor did 90-day mortality (19% and 18%, respectively; P=1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with acute stroke who had last been known to be well 6 to 24 hours earlier and who had a mismatch between clinical deficit and infarct, outcomes for disability at 90 days were better with thrombectomy plus standard care than with standard care alone. (Funded by Stryker Neurovascular; DAWN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02142283 .).

Diffusion-weighted imaging or computerized tomography perfusion assessment with clinical mismatch in the triage of wake up and late presenting strokes undergoing neurointervention with Trevo (DAWN) trial methods.

Rationale Efficacy of mechanical thrombectomy for acute stroke due to large vessel occlusion initiated beyond 6 h of time last seen well has not been demonstrated in randomized trials. Aim To establish whether subjects considered to have substantial areas of salvageable brain based on age-adjusted clinical core mismatch who can undergo endovascular treatment within 6-24 h from time last seen well (TLSW) have better outcomes at three months compared to subjects treated with standard medical therapy alone. Age-adjusted clinical core mismatch is defined by age (≤80 or >80 years), baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (10-20 or ≥21), and core size (0-20 cm3 in subjects older than 80 and, in subjects younger than 80, 0-30 cm3 with NIHSS 10-20 and 31-50 cm3 with NIHSS ≥21). Design Prospective, randomized, multicenter, Bayesian adaptive-enrichment, open label trial with blinded endpoint assessment. For the purpose of enrolment, ischemic core size will be evaluated by CT perfusion or magnetic resonance imaging-diffusion-weighted imaging measured by automated software (RAPID). Procedures Subjects with acute ischemic stroke due to computed tomography angiography- or magnetic resonance angiogram-proven arterial occlusion of the intracranial internal carotid and/or proximal middle cerebral artery (M1) with age-adjusted clinical core mismatch in whom treatment can be initiated between 6 and 24 h from TSLW are randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive mechanical embolectomy with the Trevo device or medical management alone. Sequential interim analyses allowing adaptation of enrolment criteria or stopping new enrolment for futility or predicted success will occur in every 50 randomized patients starting at 150 to a maximum of 500 patients. Study outcomes The primary endpoint is the modified Rankin Scale score at 90 days. The primary safety outcome is stroke-related mortality at 90 days. Analysis The primary endpoint, expressed as a utility-weighted modified Rankin Scale score is analyzed using a Bayesian posterior probability with adjustment for ischemic core size. For regulatory reasons, a nested co-primary endpoint analysis was added consisting of the proportion of subjects with modified Rankin Scale 0-2 between the active and control groups also analyzed using a Bayesian model.

Natriuretic Peptides, 6-Min Walk Test, and Quality-of-Life Questionnaires as Clinically Meaningful Endpoints in HF Trials.

The Expedited Access for Premarket Approval and De Novo Medical Devices Intended for Unmet Medical Need for Life Threatening or Irreversibly Debilitating Diseases or Conditions document was issued as a guidance for industry and for the Food and Drug Administration. The Expedited Access Pathway was designed as a new program for medical devices that demonstrated the potential to address unmet medical needs for life threatening or irreversibly debilitating conditions. The Food and Drug Administration would consider assessments of a device's effect on intermediate endpoints that, when improving in a congruent fashion, are reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. The purpose of this review is to provide evidence to support the use of 3 such intermediate endpoints: natriuretic peptides, such as N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide/B-type natriuretic peptide, the 6-min walk test distance, and health-related quality of life in heart failure.

Adopting a Patient-Centered Approach to Primary Outcome Analysis of Acute Stroke Trials Using a Utility-Weighted Modified Rankin Scale.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) is the most commonly used primary end point in acute stroke trials, its power is limited when analyzed in dichotomized fashion and its indication of effect size challenging to interpret when analyzed ordinally. Weighting the 7 Rankin levels by utilities may improve scale interpretability while preserving statistical power. METHODS: A utility-weighted mRS (UW-mRS) was derived by averaging values from time-tradeoff (patient centered) and person-tradeoff (clinician centered) studies. The UW-mRS, standard ordinal mRS, and dichotomized mRS were applied to 11 trials or meta-analyses of acute stroke treatments, including lytic, endovascular reperfusion, blood pressure moderation, and hemicraniectomy interventions. RESULTS: Utility values were 1.0 for mRS level 0; 0.91 for mRS level 1; 0.76 for mRS level 2; 0.65 for mRS level 3; 0.33 for mRS level 4; 0 for mRS level 5; and 0 for mRS level 6. For trials with unidirectional treatment effects, the UW-mRS paralleled the ordinal mRS and outperformed dichotomous mRS analyses. Both the UW-mRS and the ordinal mRS were statistically significant in 6 of 8 unidirectional effect trials, whereas dichotomous analyses were statistically significant in 2 to 4 of 8. In bidirectional effect trials, both the UW-mRS and ordinal tests captured the divergent treatment effects by showing neutral results, whereas some dichotomized analyses showed positive results. Mean utility differences in trials with statistically significant positive results ranged from 0.026 to 0.249. CONCLUSIONS: A UW-mRS performs similar to the standard ordinal mRS in detecting treatment effects in actual stroke trials and ensures the quantitative outcome is a valid reflection of patient-centered benefits.

Core competencies in advanced training: what supervisors say about graduate training.

In an attempt to identify needed mental health skills, many professional organizations have or are in the process of establishing core competency standards for their professions. The AAMFT identified 128 core competencies for the independent practice of MFT. The aim of this study was to learn the opinions of AAMFT Approved Supervisors as to how well prepared postgraduate trainees are when compared to the core competencies. One hundred thirty-five AAMFT Approved Supervisors provided their perspectives on (a) which competencies are most commonly learned in MFT graduate programs, (b) how well the graduates have mastered these competencies, and (c) the level to which the supervisors need the competencies to be mastered prior to entering advanced training. Results suggest that a gap exists between the level of mastery that the postgraduate trainees exhibit and the level desired by supervisors. Implications are suggested for closing this gap.

Accounting for seasonal patterns in syndromic surveillance data for outbreak detection.

BACKGROUND: Syndromic surveillance (SS) can potentially contribute to outbreak detection capability by providing timely, novel data sources. One SS challenge is that some syndrome counts vary with season in a manner that is not identical from year to year. Our goal is to evaluate the impact of inconsistent seasonal effects on performance assessments (false and true positive rates) in the context of detecting anomalous counts in data that exhibit seasonal variation. METHODS: To evaluate the impact of inconsistent seasonal effects, we injected synthetic outbreaks into real data and into data simulated from each of two models fit to the same real data. Using real respiratory syndrome counts collected in an emergency department from 2/1/94-5/31/03, we varied the length of training data from one to eight years, applied a sequential test to the forecast errors arising from each of eight forecasting methods, and evaluated their detection probabilities (DP) on the basis of 1000 injected synthetic outbreaks. We did the same for each of two corresponding simulated data sets. The less realistic, nonhierarchical model's simulated data set assumed that "one season fits all," meaning that each year's seasonal peak has the same onset, duration, and magnitude. The more realistic simulated data set used a hierarchical model to capture violation of the "one season fits all" assumption. RESULTS: This experiment demonstrated optimistic bias in DP estimates for some of the methods when data simulated from the nonhierarchical model was used for DP estimation, thus suggesting that at least for some real data sets and methods, it is not adequate to assume that "one season fits all." CONCLUSION: For the data we analyze, the "one season fits all " assumption is violated, and DP performance claims based on simulated data that assume "one season fits all," for the forecast methods considered, except for moving average methods, tend to be optimistic. Moving average methods based on relatively short amounts of training data are competitive on all three data sets, but are particularly competitive on the real data and on data from the hierarchical model, which are the two data sets that violate the "one season fits all" assumption.