Applying a genetic risk score model to enhance prediction of future multiple sclerosis diagnosis at first presentation with optic neuritis.

Optic neuritis (ON) is associated with numerous immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, but 50% patients are ultimately diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). Differentiating MS-ON from non-MS-ON acutely is challenging but important; non-MS ON often requires urgent immunosuppression to preserve vision. Using data from the United Kingdom Biobank we showed that combining an MS-genetic risk score (GRS) with demographic risk factors (age, sex) significantly improved MS prediction in undifferentiated ON; one standard deviation of MS-GRS increased the Hazard of MS 1.3-fold (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.55, P < 0.01). Participants stratified into quartiles of predicted risk developed incident MS at rates varying from 4% (95%CI 0.5-7%, lowest risk quartile) to 41% (95%CI 33-49%, highest risk quartile). The model replicated across two cohorts (Geisinger, USA, and FinnGen, Finland). This study indicates that a combined model might enhance individual MS risk stratification, paving the way for precision-based ON treatment and earlier MS disease-modifying therapy.

Hyperglycaemia is a causal risk factor for upper limb pathologies.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes (regardless of type) and obesity are associated with a range of musculoskeletal disorders. The causal mechanisms driving these associations are unknown for many upper limb pathologies. We used genetic techniques to test the causal link between glycemia, obesity and musculoskeletal conditions. METHODS: In the UK Biobank's unrelated European cohort (N = 379 708) we performed mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses to test for a causal effect of long-term high glycaemia and adiposity on four musculoskeletal pathologies: frozen shoulder, Dupuytren's disease, carpal tunnel syndrome and trigger finger. We also performed single-gene MR using rare variants in the GCK gene. RESULTS: Using MR, we found evidence that long-term high glycaemia has a causal role in the aetiology of upper limb conditions. A 10-mmol/mol increase in genetically predicted haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) was associated with frozen shoulder: odds ratio (OR) = 1.50 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.88], Dupuytren's disease: OR = 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.35), trigger finger: OR = 1.30 (95% CI, 1.09-1.55) and carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 1.20 (95% CI, 1.09-1.33). Carriers of GCK mutations have increased odds of frozen shoulder: OR = 7.16 (95% CI, 2.93-17.51) and carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 2.86 (95% CI, 1.50-5.44) but not Dupuytren's disease or trigger finger. We found evidence that an increase in genetically predicted body mass index (BMI) of 5 kg/m2 was associated with carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10-1.16) and associated negatively with Dupuytren's disease: OR = 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.98), but no evidence of association with frozen shoulder or trigger finger. Trigger finger (OR 1.96 (95% CI, 1.42-2.69) P = 3.6e-05) and carpal tunnel syndrome [OR 1.63 (95% CI, 1.36-1.95) P = 8.5e-08] are associated with genetically predicted unfavourable adiposity increase of one standard deviation of body fat. CONCLUSIONS: Our study consistently demonstrates a causal role of long-term high glycaemia in the aetiology of upper limb musculoskeletal conditions. Clinicians treating diabetes patients should be aware of these complications in clinic, specifically those managing the care of GCK mutation carriers. Upper limb musculoskeletal conditions should be considered diabetes complications.

Influence of family history on penetrance of hereditary cancers in a population setting.

Background: We sought to investigate how penetrance of familial cancer syndromes varies with family history using a population-based cohort. Methods: We analysed 454,712 UK Biobank participants with exome sequence and clinical data (data collected between March 2006 and June 2021). We identified participants with a self-reported family history of breast or colorectal cancer and a pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant in the major genes responsible for hereditary breast cancer or Lynch syndrome. We calculated survival to cancer diagnosis (controlled for sex, death, recruitment centre, screening and prophylactic surgery). Findings: Women with a pathogenic BRCA1 or BRCA2 variant had an increased risk of breast cancer that was higher in those with a first-degree family history (relative hazard 10.3 and 7.8, respectively) than those without (7.2 and 4.7). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher in those with a family history (44.7%, CI 32.2-59.3 and 24.1%, CI 17.5-32.6) versus those without (22.8%, CI 15.9-32.0 and 17.9%, CI 13.8-23.0). A similar pattern was seen in Lynch syndrome: individuals with a pathogenic MLH1, MSH2 or MSH6 variant had an increased risk of colorectal cancer that was significantly higher in those with a family history (relative hazard 35.6, 48.0 and 9.9) than those without (13.0, 15.4 and 7.2). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher for carriers of a pathogenic MLH1 or MSH2 variant in those with a family history (30.9%, CI 18.1-49.3 and 38.3%, CI 21.5-61.8) versus those without (20.5% CI 9.6-40.5 and 8.3% CI 2.1-30.4), but not for MSH6 (6.5% CI 2.7-15.1 with family history versus 8.3%, CI 5.1-13.2). Relative risk increases were also observed both within and across conditions. Interpretation: Individuals with pathogenic cancer syndrome variants may be at a less elevated risk of cancer in the absence of a first-degree family history, so in the context of results return, family history should be considered when counselling patients on the risks and benefits of potential follow-up care. Funding: The current work is supported by the MRC (grant no MR/T00200X/1). The MRC had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

The effect of pregnancy vitamin D supplementation on offspring bone mineral density in childhood: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of moderate- to high-dose vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy on offspring bone mineralisation found a positive effect of vitamin D supplementation on offspring bone mineral density (BMD) at age 4-6 years, with a smaller effect on bone mineral content. PURPOSE: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to assess the effect of pregnancy vitamin D supplementation on offspring bone mineral density (BMD) in childhood. METHODS: A literature search was conducted for published RCTs of antenatal vitamin D supplementation with assessment of offspring BMD or bone mineral content (BMC) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) using MEDLINE and EMBASE up to 13th July 2022. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool. Study findings were grouped in two age groups of offspring assessment: neonatal period and early childhood (3-6 years). Random-effects meta-analysis of the effect on BMC/BMD at 3-6 years was performed using RevMan 5.4.1, yielding standardised mean difference (SMD) (95% CI). RESULTS: Five RCTs were identified with offspring assessment of BMD or BMC; 3250 women were randomised within these studies. Risk of bias was low in 2 studies and "of concern" in 3. Supplementation regimes and the control used (3 studies used placebo and 2 used 400 IU/day cholecalciferol) varied, but in all studies the intervention increased maternal 25-hydroxvitamin D status compared to the control group. Two trials assessing BMD in the neonatal period (total n = 690) found no difference between groups, but meta-analysis was not performed as one trial represented 96.4% of those studied at this age. Three trials assessed offspring whole-body-less-head BMD at age 4-6 years. BMD was higher in children born to mothers supplemented with vitamin D [0.16 SD (95% confidence interval 0.05, 0.27), n = 1358] with a smaller effect on BMC [0.07 SD (95% CI - 0.04, 0.19), n = 1351]. CONCLUSIONS: There are few RCTs published to address this question, and these are inconsistent in methodology and findings. However, meta-analysis of three trials suggests moderate- to high-dose vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy might increase offspring BMD in early childhood, but further trials are required to confirm this finding. (Prospero CRD42021288682; no funding received).

Applying a genetic risk score for prostate cancer to men with lower urinary tract symptoms in primary care to predict prostate cancer diagnosis: a cohort study in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is highly heritable, with >250 common variants associated in genome-wide association studies. It commonly presents with non-specific lower urinary tract symptoms that are frequently associated with benign conditions. METHODS: Cohort study using UK Biobank data linked to primary care records. Participants were men with a record showing a general practice consultation for a lower urinary tract symptom. The outcome measure was prostate cancer diagnosis within 2 years of consultation. The predictor was a genetic risk score of 269 genetic variants for prostate cancer. RESULTS: A genetic risk score (GRS) is associated with prostate cancer in symptomatic men (OR per SD increase = 2.12 [1.86-2.41] P = 3.5e-30). An integrated risk model including age and GRS applied to symptomatic men predicted prostate cancer (AUC 0.768 [0.739-0.796]). Prostate cancer incidence was 8.1% (6.7-9.7) in the highest risk quintile. In the lowest quintile, prostate cancer incidence was <1%. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to apply GRS in primary care to improve the triage of symptomatic patients. Men with the lowest genetic risk of developing prostate cancer could safely avoid invasive investigation, whilst those identified with the greatest risk could be fast-tracked for further investigation. These results show that a GRS has potential application to improve the diagnostic pathway of symptomatic patients in primary care.

A genome-wide association study identifies 5 loci associated with frozen shoulder and implicates diabetes as a causal risk factor.

Frozen shoulder is a painful condition that often requires surgery and affects up to 5% of individuals aged 40-60 years. Little is known about the causes of the condition, but diabetes is a strong risk factor. To begin to understand the biological mechanisms involved, we aimed to identify genetic variants associated with frozen shoulder and to use Mendelian randomization to test the causal role of diabetes. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of frozen shoulder in the UK Biobank using data from 10,104 cases identified from inpatient, surgical and primary care codes. We used data from FinnGen for replication and meta-analysis. We used one-sample and two-sample Mendelian randomization approaches to test for a causal association of diabetes with frozen shoulder. We identified five genome-wide significant loci. The most significant locus (lead SNP rs28971325; OR = 1.20, [95% CI: 1.16-1.24], p = 5x10-29) contained WNT7B. This variant was also associated with Dupuytren's disease (OR = 2.31 [2.24, 2.39], p<1x10-300) as were a further two of the frozen shoulder associated variants. The Mendelian randomization results provided evidence that type 1 diabetes is a causal risk factor for frozen shoulder (OR = 1.03 [1.02-1.05], p = 3x10-6). There was no evidence that obesity was causally associated with frozen shoulder, suggesting that diabetes influences risk of the condition through glycemic rather than mechanical effects. We have identified genetic loci associated with frozen shoulder. There is a large overlap with Dupuytren's disease associated loci. Diabetes is a likely causal risk factor. Our results provide evidence of biological mechanisms involved in this common painful condition.

Genetically defined favourable adiposity is not associated with a clinically meaningful difference in clinical course in people with type 2 diabetes but does associate with a favourable metabolic profile.

AIMS: Change in weight, HbA1c , lipids, blood pressure and cardiometabolic events over time is variable in individuals with type 2 diabetes. We hypothesised that people with a genetic predisposition to a more favourable adiposity distribution could have a less severe clinical course/progression. METHODS: We involved people with type 2 diabetes from two UK-based cohorts: 11,914 individuals with GP follow-up data from the UK Biobank and 723 from Salford. We generated a 'favourable adiposity' genetic score and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal studies to test its association with weight, BMI, lipids, blood pressure, medication use and risk of myocardial infarction and stroke using 15 follow-up time points with 1-year intervals. RESULTS: The 'favourable adiposity' genetic score was cross-sectionally associated with higher weight (effect size per 1 standard deviation higher genetic score: 0.91 kg [0.59,1.23]) and BMI (0.30 kg/m2 [0.19,0.40]), but higher high-density lipoprotein (0.02 mmol/L [0.01,0.02]) and lower triglycerides (-0.04 mmol/L [-0.07, -0.02]) in the UK Biobank at baseline, and this pattern of association was consistent across follow-up. There was a trend for participants with higher 'favourable adiposity' genetic score to have lower risk of myocardial infarction and/or stroke (odds ratio 0.79 [0.62, 1.00]) compared to those with lower score. A one standard deviation higher score was associated with lower odds of using lipid-lowering (0.91 [0.86, 0.97]) and anti-hypertensive medication (0.95 [0.91, 0.99]). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with type 2 diabetes, having more 'favourable adiposity' alleles is associated with a marginally better lipid profile long-term and having lower odds of requiring lipid-lowering or anti-hypertensive medication in spite of relatively higher adiposity.

Clinical Features and Genetic Risk of Demyelination Following Anti-TNF Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNF exposure has been linked to demyelination events. We sought to describe the clinical features of demyelination events following anti-TNF treatment and to test whether affected patients were genetically predisposed to multiple sclerosis [MS]. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study to describe the clinical features of demyelination events following anti-TNF exposure. We compared genetic risk scores [GRS], calculated using carriage of 43 susceptibility loci for MS, in 48 cases with 1219 patients exposed to anti-TNF who did not develop demyelination. RESULTS: Overall, 39 [74%] cases were female. The median age [range] of patients at time of demyelination was 41.5 years [20.7-63.2]. The median duration of anti-TNF treatment was 21.3 months [0.5-99.4] and 19 [36%] patients were receiving concomitant immunomodulators. Most patients had central demyelination affecting the brain, spinal cord, or both. Complete recovery was reported in 12 [23%] patients after a median time of 6.8 months [0.1-28.7]. After 33.0 months of follow-up, partial recovery was observed in 29 [55%] patients, relapsing and remitting episodes in nine [17%], progressive symptoms in three [6%]: two [4%] patients were diagnosed with MS. There was no significant difference between MS GRS scores in cases (mean -3.5 × 10-4, standard deviation [SD] 0.0039) and controls [mean -1.1 × 10-3, SD 0.0042] [p = 0.23]. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who experienced demyelination events following anti-TNF exposure were more likely female, less frequently treated with an immunomodulator, and had a similar genetic risk to anti-TNF exposed controls who did not experience demyelination events. Large prospective studies with pre-treatment neuroimaging are required to identify genetic susceptibility loci.

Genetic evidence that higher central adiposity causes gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) is associated with multiple risk factors but determining causality is difficult. We used a genetic approach [Mendelian randomization (MR)] to identify potential causal modifiable risk factors for GORD. METHODS: We used data from 451 097 European participants in the UK Biobank and defined GORD using hospital-defined ICD10 and OPCS4 codes and self-report data (N = 41 024 GORD cases). We tested observational and MR-based associations between GORD and four adiposity measures [body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), a metabolically favourable higher body-fat percentage and waist circumference], smoking status, smoking frequency and caffeine consumption. RESULTS: Observationally, all adiposity measures were associated with higher odds of GORD. Ever and current smoking were associated with higher odds of GORD. Coffee consumption was associated with lower odds of GORD but, among coffee drinkers, more caffeinated-coffee consumption was associated with higher odds of GORD. Using MR, we provide strong evidence that higher WHR and higher WHR adjusted for BMI lead to GORD. There was weak evidence that higher BMI, body-fat percentage, coffee drinking or smoking caused GORD, but only the observational effects for BMI and body-fat percentage could be excluded. This MR estimated effect for WHR equates to a 1.23-fold higher odds of GORD per 5-cm increase in waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide strong evidence that a higher waist-hip ratio leads to GORD. Our study suggests that central fat distribution is crucial in causing GORD rather than overall weight.

Quality improvement project identifies factors associated with delay in IBD diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Delay in the diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is common and contemporary UK studies are lacking. AIM: To determine factors associated with, and the consequences of, a prolonged time to diagnosis in IBD. METHODS: This quality improvement study included 304 adults with a new IBD diagnosis made between January 2014 and December 2017 across 49 general practices (GP) and gastroenterology secondary care services. Outcome measures were demographic, clinical and laboratory factors associated with a delayed time, defined as greater than upper quartile, to: (a) patient presentation (b) GP referral (c) secondary care diagnosis, and factors associated with a complicated disease course (hospitalisation and/or surgery and/or biologic treatment) in the year after diagnosis. RESULTS: The median [IQR] diagnosis sub-intervals were: (a) patient = 2.1 months [0.9-5.1]; (b) GP = 0.3 months [0.0-0.9]; (c) secondary care = 1.1 months [0.5-2.1]. 50% of patients were diagnosed within 4 months and 92% were diagnosed within 2 years of symptom onset. Diagnostic delay was more common in Crohn's disease (7.6 months [3.1-15.0]) than ulcerative colitis (3.3 months [1.9-7.3]) (P < 0.001). Patients who presented as an emergency (P < 0.001) but not those with a delayed overall time to diagnosis (P = 0.35) were more likely to have a complicated disease course. CONCLUSION: Time to patient presentation is the largest component of time to IBD diagnosis. Emergency presentation is common and, unlike a delayed time to diagnosis, is associated with a complicated disease course.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Microscopic Colitis in the UK Biobank Confirms Immune-Related Pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The causes of microscopic colitis are currently poorly understood. Previous reports have found clinical associations with coeliac disease and genetic associations at the human leukocyte antigen [HLA] locus on the ancestral 8.1 haplotype. We investigated pharmacological and genetic factors associated with microscopic colitis in the UK Biobank. METHODS: In total, 483 European UK Biobank participants were identified by ICD10 coding, and a genome-wide association study was performed using BOLT-LMM, with a sensitivity analysis performed excluding potential confounders. The HLA*IMP:02 algorithm was used to estimate allele frequency at 11 classical HLA genes, and downstream analysis was performed using FUMA. Genetic overlap with inflammatory bowel disease [Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis] was investigated using genetic risk scores. RESULTS: We found significant phenotypic associations with smoking status, coeliac disease and the use of proton-pump inhibitors but not with other commonly reported pharmacological risk factors. Using the largest sample size to date, we confirmed a recently reported association with the MHC Ancestral 8.1 Haplotype. Downstream analysis suggests association with digestive tract morphogenesis. By calculating genetic risk scores, we also report suggestive evidence of shared genetic risk with Crohn's disease, but not with ulcerative colitis. CONCLUSIONS: This report confirms the role of genetic determinants in the HLA in the pathogenesis of microscopic colitis. The genetic overlap with Crohn's disease suggests a common underlying mechanism of disease.

Predictors of anti-TNF treatment failure in anti-TNF-naive patients with active luminal Crohn's disease: a prospective, multicentre, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNF drugs are effective treatments for the management of Crohn's disease but treatment failure is common. We aimed to identify clinical and pharmacokinetic factors that predict primary non-response at week 14 after starting treatment, non-remission at week 54, and adverse events leading to drug withdrawal. METHODS: The personalised anti-TNF therapy in Crohn's disease study (PANTS) is a prospective observational UK-wide study. We enrolled anti-TNF-naive patients (aged ≥6 years) with active luminal Crohn's disease at the time of first exposure to infliximab or adalimumab between March 7, 2013, and July 15, 2016. Patients were evaluated for 12 months or until drug withdrawal. Demographic data, smoking status, age at diagnosis, disease duration, location, and behaviour, previous medical and drug history, and previous Crohn's disease-related surgeries were recorded at baseline. At every visit, disease activity score, weight, therapy, and adverse events were recorded; drug and total anti-drug antibody concentrations were also measured. Treatment failure endpoints were primary non-response at week 14, non-remission at week 54, and adverse events leading to drug withdrawal. We used regression analyses to identify which factors were associated with treatment failure. FINDINGS: We enrolled 955 patients treated with infliximab (753 with originator; 202 with biosimilar) and 655 treated with adalimumab. Primary non-response occurred in 295 (23·8%, 95% CI 21·4-26·2) of 1241 patients who were assessable at week 14. Non-remission at week 54 occurred in 764 (63·1%, 60·3-65·8) of 1211 patients who were assessable, and adverse events curtailed treatment in 126 (7·8%, 6·6-9·2) of 1610 patients. In multivariable analysis, the only factor independently associated with primary non-response was low drug concentration at week 14 (infliximab: odds ratio 0·35 [95% CI 0·20-0·62], p=0·00038; adalimumab: 0·13 [0·06-0·28], p<0·0001); the optimal week 14 drug concentrations associated with remission at both week 14 and week 54 were 7 mg/L for infliximab and 12 mg/L for adalimumab. Continuing standard dosing regimens after primary non-response was rarely helpful; only 14 (12·4% [95% CI 6·9-19·9]) of 113 patients entered remission by week 54. Similarly, week 14 drug concentration was also independently associated with non-remission at week 54 (0·29 [0·16-0·52] for infliximab; 0·03 [0·01-0·12] for adalimumab; p<0·0001 for both). The proportion of patients who developed anti-drug antibodies (immunogenicity) was 62·8% (95% CI 59·0-66·3) for infliximab and 28·5% (24·0-32·7) for adalimumab. For both drugs, suboptimal week 14 drug concentrations predicted immunogenicity, and the development of anti-drug antibodies predicted subsequent low drug concentrations. Combination immunomodulator (thiopurine or methotrexate) therapy mitigated the risk of developing anti-drug antibodies (hazard ratio 0·39 [95% CI 0·32-0·46] for infliximab; 0·44 [0·31-0·64] for adalimumab; p<0·0001 for both). For infliximab, multivariable analysis of immunododulator use, and week 14 drug and anti-drug antibody concentrations showed an independent effect of immunomodulator use on week 54 non-remission (odds ratio 0·56 [95% CI 0·38-0·83], p=0·004). INTERPRETATION: Anti-TNF treatment failure is common and is predicted by low drug concentrations, mediated in part by immunogenicity. Clinical trials are required to investigate whether personalised induction regimens and treatment-to-target dose intensification improve outcomes. FUNDING: Guts UK, Crohn's and Colitis UK, Cure Crohn's Colitis, AbbVie, Merck Sharp and Dohme, Napp Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, and Celltrion.

Signal Reconstruction of Pulmonary Vein Recordings Using a Phenomenological Mathematical Model: Application to Pulmonary Vein Isolation Therapy.

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia, is commonly initiated by ectopic beats originating from a small myocardial sleeve extending over the pulmonary veins. Pulmonary vein isolation therapy attempts to isolate the pulmonary veins from the left atrium by ablating tissue, commonly by using radiofrequency ablation. During this procedure, the cardiologist records electrical activity using a lasso catheter, and the activation pattern recorded is used as a guide toward which regions to ablate. However, poor contact between electrode and tissue can lead to important regions of electrical activity not being recorded in clinic. We reproduce these signals through the use of a phenomenological model of the cardiac action potential on a cylinder, which we fit to post-AF atrial cells, and model the bipolar electrodes of the lasso catheter by an approximation of the surface potential. The resulting activation pattern is validated by direct comparison with those of clinical recordings. A potential application of the model is to reconstruct the missing electrical activity, minimizing the impact of the information loss on the clinical procedure, and we present results to demonstrate this.