Exploring arts-health ecologies in the very remote Barkly Region of Australia.

INTRODUCTION: This article explores links between arts, health, and wellbeing for diverse First Nations and non-Indigenous peoples living in the very remote Barkly Region of the Northern Territory in Australia. The article stems from a major 3-year study of the Barkly arts sector conducted in partnership with Barkly Regional Arts and Regional Development Australia Northern Territory. Key findings relate to an arts-health ecology evident in the region, the interdependence between artists' own health and their arts activity, the value of arts spaces as places of safety and refuge, and the potential of the arts to promote cultural and intercultural healing and development. We discuss these findings in the context of relevant literature and make suggestions for future arts-health and wellbeing related research, policy and practice in rural and remote contexts. METHODS: This study employed an ecological mixed-methods research design, including quantitative and qualitative survey and interview data collection as well as collaborative, data-driven thematic analysis. The ecological approach was used to map a variety of creative practices through a broad range of art forms. Commercial, amateur and subsidised art and creative practices were included in this study and represented the multicultural population of the Barkly Region (both First Nations and non-Indigenous peoples). Arts and creativity in the region were recognized as a complex ecology that saw individuals, businesses, organisations and government working in different ways to sustain culture and contribute to social and economic development. RESULTS: Research participants from diverse cultural backgrounds recognised health and wellbeing benefits of arts and creative activity. Arts participation and engagement were reported to have intrinsic individual health and wellbeing effects such as mental health and mindfulness, emotional regulation, enjoyment, and relief of physical and emotional pain and stress alongside promoting spiritual connection to self, culture and community. The study indicates that the arts can also shape powerful determinants of health and wellbeing such as employment, poverty, racism, social inclusion, and natural and built environments. Barkly arts-health ecology featured extensive involvement from health and human service and arts organisations, which provided a strong foundation for inclusive, healing and holistic regional development. CONCLUSION: This study has outlined how arts and creative activity contribute to holistic regional development in the Barkly desert region, an area with a high percentage of First Nations peoples. Arts and creative activity were reported to have intrinsic health and wellbeing effects for individuals, which included mental health and mindfulness, emotional regulation, enjoyment, and relief of physical and emotional pain and stress as well as promoting spiritual connection to self, others and environment. Arts activities were also seen to shape powerful determinants of health and wellbeing such as employment, poverty, racism, social inclusion, and natural and built environments.

Methods for assessing social and cultural losses.

Compensation for damages can and should address social and cultural impacts.

Characterizing public perceptions of social and cultural impacts in policy decisions.

Social scientists and community advocates have expressed concerns that many social and cultural impacts important to citizens are given insufficient weight by decision makers in public policy decision-making. In two large cross-sectional surveys, we examined public perceptions of a range of social, cultural, health, economic, and environmental impacts. Findings suggest that valued impacts are perceived through an initial lens that highlights both tangibility (how difficult it is to understand, observe, and make changes to an impact) and scope (how broadly an impact applies). Valued impacts thought to be less tangible and narrower in scope were perceived to have less support by both decision makers and the public. Nearly every valued impact was perceived to have more support from the public than from decision makers, with the exception of three economic considerations (revenues, profits, and costs). The results also demonstrate that many valued impacts do not fit neatly into the single-category distinctions typically used as part of impact assessments and cost-benefit analyses. We provide recommendations for practitioners and suggest ways that these results can foster improvements to the quality and defensibility of risk and impact assessments.

Social comfort zones for transformative conservation decisions in a changing climate.

Novel management interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly being considered by scientists and practitioners. However, resistance to more transformative interventions remains common across both specialist and lay communities and is generally assumed to be strongly entrenched. We used a decision-pathways survey of the public in Canada and the United States (n = 1490) to test two propositions relating to climate-motivated interventions for conservation: most public groups are uncomfortable with interventionist options for conserving biodiversity and given the strong values basis for preferences regarding biodiversity and natural systems more broadly, people are unlikely to change their minds. Our pathways design tested and retested levels of comfort with interventions for forest ecosystems at three different points in the survey. Comfort was reexamined given different nudges (including new information from trusted experts) and in reference to a particular species (bristlecone pine [Pinus longaeva]). In contrast with expectations of public unease, baseline levels of public comfort with climate interventions in forests was moderately high (46% comfortable) and increased further when respondents were given new information and the opportunity to change their choice after consideration of a particular species. People who were initially comfortable with interventions tended to remain so (79%), whereas 42% of those who were initially uncomfortable and 40% of those who were uncertain shifted to comfortable by the end of the survey. In short and across questions, comfort levels with interventions were high, and where discomfort or uncertainty existed, such positions did not appear to be strongly held. We argue that a new decision logic, one based on anthropogenic responsibility, is beginning to replace a default reluctance to intervene with nature.

Zonas de Comodidad Social ante las Decisiones de Conservación Transformadoras en un Clima Cambiante Resumen Los científicos y los practicantes de la conservación cada vez consideran más a las intervenciones novedosas de manejo con la intención de mitigar los impactos del cambio climático sobre la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, la resistencia a las intervenciones más transformadoras es común en especialistas y no profesionales y generalmente se asume que está fuertemente arraigada. Usamos una encuesta sobre toma de decisiones del público en Canadá y en los Estados Unidos (n = 1490) para evaluar dos propuestas relacionadas a intervenciones de conservación motivadas por el clima: la mayoría de los grupos de público están incómodos con las opciones intervencionistas para conservar la biodiversidad y dada la sólida base de valores para las preferencias con respecto a la biodiversidad y a los sistemas naturales en general, es poco probable que las personas cambien de opinión. Nuestro diseño de encuesta analizó y reanalizó los niveles de comodidad con respecto a las intervenciones para los ecosistemas boscosos en tres puntos distintos dentro del estudio. La comodidad fue reexaminada con diferentes impulsos (incluyendo información nueva proveniente de expertos confiables) y en referencia a una especie particular (Pinus longaeva). Contrario a las expectativas de malestar del público, los niveles de línea base de la comodidad del público frente a las intervenciones climáticas en los bosques fueron moderadamente altos (46% de comodidad) e incrementaron cuando a los respondientes se les proporcionó información nueva y la oportunidad de cambiar su elección después de considerar a una especie particular. Las personas que al inicio estaban cómodas con las intervenciones tendieron a permanecer así (79%), mientras que el 42% de aquellos que estuvieron incómodos inicialmente y el 40% de aquellos que estuvieron inseguros cambiaron a estar cómodos para el final del estudio. En resumen, los niveles de comodidad frente a las intervenciones fueron elevados, y cuando existieron malestar o incertidumbre, dichas posiciones no parecieron mantenerse con fuerza. Argumentamos que una lógica de decisión basada en la responsabilidad antropogénica está comenzando a reemplazar una renuencia predeterminada a intervenir en la naturaleza.

Behavioural frameworks to understand public perceptions of and risk response to carbon dioxide removal.

The adoption of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies at a scale sufficient to draw down carbon emissions will require both individual and collective decisions that happen over time in different locations to enable a massive scale-up. Members of the public and other decision-makers have not yet formed strong attitudes, beliefs and preferences about most of the individual CDR technologies or taken positions on policy mechanisms and tax-payer support for CDR. Much of the current discourse among scientists, policy analysts and policy-makers about CDR implicitly assumes that decision-makers will exhibit unbiased, rational behaviour that weighs the costs and benefits of CDR. In this paper, we review behavioural decision theory and discuss how public reactions to CDR will be different from and more complex than that implied by rational choice theory. Given that people do not form attitudes and opinions in a vacuum, we outline how fundamental social normative principles shape important intergroup, intragroup and social network processes that influence support for or opposition to CDR technologies. We also point to key insights that may help stakeholders craft public outreach strategies that anticipate the nuances of how people evaluate the risks and benefits of CDR approaches. Finally, we outline critical research questions to understand the behavioural components of CDR to plan for an emerging public response.

People, Pipelines, and Probabilities: Clarifying Significance and Uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessments.

Determinations of significance play a pivotal role in environmental impact assessments because they point decision makers to the predicted effects of an action most deserving of attention and further study. Impact predictions are always subject to uncertainty because they rely on estimates of future consequences. Yet uncertainty is often neglected or treated in a perfunctory manner as part of the characterization, evaluation, and communication of anticipated consequences and their significance. Proposals to construct fossil fuel pipelines in North America provide a highly visible example; casual treatment of how uncertainty affects significance determinations has resulted in poorly informed stakeholders, frustrated industry proponents, and inconsistent choices on the part of public decision makers. Using environmental assessments for recent pipeline proposals as examples, we highlight five ways in which uncertainty is often neglected when determining impact significance and suggest that a mix of known methods, new guidelines, and appropriate oversight could greatly improve current practices.

A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions.

Iconic photographs and the ebb and flow of empathic response to humanitarian disasters.

The power of visual imagery is well known, enshrined in such familiar sayings as "seeing is believing" and "a picture is worth a thousand words." Iconic photos stir our emotions and transform our perspectives about life and the world in which we live. On September 2, 2015, photographs of a young Syrian child, Aylan Kurdi, lying face-down on a Turkish beach, filled the front pages of newspapers worldwide. These images brought much-needed attention to the Syrian war that had resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and created millions of refugees. Here we present behavioral data demonstrating that, in this case, an iconic photo of a single child had more impact than statistical reports of hundreds of thousands of deaths. People who had been unmoved by the relentlessly rising death toll in Syria suddenly appeared to care much more after having seen Aylan's photograph; however, this newly created empathy waned rather quickly. We briefly examine the psychological processes underlying these findings, discuss some of their policy implications, and reflect on the lessons they provide about the challenges to effective intervention in the face of mass threats to human well-being.

Public perceptions of expert disagreement: Bias and incompetence or a complex and random world?

Expert disputes can present laypeople with several challenges including trying to understand why such disputes occur. In an online survey of the US public, we used a psychometric approach to elicit perceptions of expert disputes for 56 forecasts sampled from seven domains. People with low education, or with low self-reported topic knowledge, were most likely to attribute disputes to expert incompetence. People with higher self-reported knowledge tended to attribute disputes to expert bias due to financial or ideological reasons. The more highly educated and cognitively able were most likely to attribute disputes to natural factors, such as the irreducible complexity and randomness of the phenomenon. Our results show that laypeople tend to use coherent-albeit potentially overly narrow-attributions to make sense of expert disputes and that these explanations vary across different segments of the population. We highlight several important implications for scientists, risk managers, and decision makers.

Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning.

In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.

Developing Responsive Indicators of Indigenous Community Health.

How health is defined and assessed is a priority concern for Indigenous peoples due to considerable health risks faced from environmental impacts to homelands, and because what is "at risk" is often determined without their input or approval. Many health assessments by government agencies, industry, and researchers from outside the communities fail to include Indigenous definitions of health and omit basic methodological guidance on how to evaluate Indigenous health, thus compromising the quality and consistency of results. Native Coast Salish communities (Washington State, USA) developed and pilot-tested a set of Indigenous Health Indicators (IHI) that reflect non-physiological aspects of health (community connection, natural resources security, cultural use, education, self-determination, resilience) on a community scale, using constructed measures that allow for concerns and priorities to be clearly articulated without releasing proprietary knowledge. Based on initial results from pilot-tests of the IHI with the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (Washington State, USA), we argue that incorporation of IHIs into health assessments will provide a more comprehensive understanding of Indigenous health concerns, and assist Indigenous peoples to control their own health evaluations.

Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

Values-Based Measures of Impacts to Indigenous Health.

Values-based indicators of risks to Indigenous health have the potential to improve the accuracy and quality of a wide range of decisions affecting Native lands and cultures. Current health impact assessment approaches often omit important health priorities rooted in the history, social structures, and cultural context of Indigenous communities. Insights and methods from the decision sciences can be used to develop more culturally appropriate and context-relevant health indicators that can articulate and track changes to important dimensions of Indigenous health. Identifying and addressing priority cultural, social, economic, and environmental contributors to the health of Indigenous communities will help to generate better project alternatives and foster more responsive choices.

At Home on the Range? Lay Interpretations of Numerical Uncertainty Ranges.

Numerical uncertainty ranges are often used to convey the precision of a forecast. In three studies, we examined how users perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges and test specific hypotheses about the display characteristics that affect these perceptions. We discuss five primary conclusions from these studies: (1) substantial variation exists in how people perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges; (2) distributional perceptions appear similar whether the uncertain variable is a probability or an outcome; (3) the variation in distributional perceptions is due in part to individual differences in numeracy, with more numerate individuals more likely to perceive the distribution as roughly normal; (4) the variation is also due in part to the presence versus absence of common cues used to convey the correct interpretation (e.g., including a best estimate increases perceptions that the distribution is roughly normal); and (5) simple graphical representations can decrease the variance in distributional perceptions. These results point toward significant opportunities to improve uncertainty communication in climate change and other domains.

Structuring decisions for managing threatened and endangered species in a changing climate.

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision-aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science-based problem, we suggest that a clear decision-making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers' choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade-offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision-focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante.

Culture, intangibles and metrics in environmental management.

The demand for better representation of cultural considerations in environmental management is increasingly evident. As two cases in point, ecosystem service approaches increasingly include cultural services, and resource planners recognize indigenous constituents and the cultural knowledge they hold as key to good environmental management. Accordingly, collaborations between anthropologists, planners, decision makers and biodiversity experts about the subject of culture are increasingly common-but also commonly fraught. Those whose expertise is culture often engage in such collaborations because they worry a practitioner from 'elsewhere' will employ a 'measure of culture' that is poorly or naively conceived. Those from an economic or biophysical training must grapple with the intangible properties of culture as they intersect with economic, biological or other material measures. This paper seeks to assist those who engage in collaborations to characterize cultural benefits or impacts relevant to decision-making in three ways; by: (i) considering the likely mindset of would-be collaborators; (ii) providing examples of tested approaches that might enable innovation; and (iii) characterizing the kinds of obstacles that are in principle solvable through methodological alternatives. We accomplish these tasks in part by examining three cases wherein culture was a critical variable in environmental decision making: risk management in New Zealand associated with Maori concerns about genetically modified organisms; cultural services to assist marine planning in coastal British Columbia; and a decision-making process involving a local First Nation about water flows in a regulated river in western Canada. We examine how 'culture' came to be manifest in each case, drawing from ethnographic and cultural-models interviews and using subjective metrics (recommended by theories of judgment and decision making) to express cultural concerns. We conclude that the characterization of cultural benefits and impacts is least amenable to methodological solution when prevailing cultural worldviews contain elements fundamentally at odds with efforts to quantify benefits/impacts, but that even in such cases some improvements are achievable if decision-makers are flexible regarding processes for consultation with community members and how quantification is structured.

Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.

We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing.

Deliberative disjunction: expert and public understanding of outcome uncertainty.

Many environmental and risk management decisions are made jointly by technical experts and members of the public. Frequently, their task is to select from among management alternatives whose outcomes are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Although it is recognized that how this uncertainty is interpreted can significantly affect decision-making processes and choices, little research has examined similarities and differences between expert and public understandings of uncertainty. We present results from a web-based survey that directly compares expert and lay interpretations and understandings of different expressions of uncertainty in the context of evaluating the consequences of proposed environmental management actions. Participants responded to two hypothetical but realistic scenarios involving trade-offs between environmental and other objectives and were asked a series of questions about their comprehension of the uncertainty information, their preferred choice among the alternatives, and the associated difficulty and amount of effort. Results demonstrate that experts and laypersons tend to use presentations of numerical ranges and evaluative labels differently; interestingly, the observed differences between the two groups were not explained by differences in numeracy or concerns for the predicted environmental losses. These findings question many of the usual presumptions about how uncertainty should be presented as part of deliberative risk- and environmental-management processes.

When experts disagree (and better science won't help much): using structured deliberations to support endangered species recovery planning.

Progress on recovery plans to conserve endangered species is often blocked due to the lack of an effective framework that technical experts and other knowledgeable stakeholders can use to examine areas of agreement or disagreement about the anticipated effects of management actions. Multi-party, multi-interest resource management deliberations, although increasingly common, are difficult in the context of recovery planning due to the range of potentially affected environmental, economic, and social concerns. These deliberations are further complicated by frequent disagreements among technical experts about how to identify and address various sources of biological uncertainty. We describe the development of a decision-aiding framework as part of an inter-agency plan to assist recovery of endangered Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), using a structured decision making approach that encouraged constructive deliberations based on rigorous analysis. Results are summarized in terms of developing an explicit set of management objectives, clarifying and prioritizing hypotheses concerning barriers to recovery, comparing alternative management initiatives in light of biological uncertainty, and incorporating resource constraints to generate preferred sets of actions. Overall, the use of a structured approach to making recovery decisions improved inter-agency cooperation and facilitated dialogue, understanding, and agreement among participating experts. It also helped to create a defensible basis for further internal discussions as well as for communicating with external stakeholders, including resource users and political decision makers.

Compensating aboriginal cultural losses: an alternative approach to assessing environmental damages.

We first identify six primary problems with conventional practice: lack of context, inadequate participation from aboriginal communities, exclusion of important losses, reliance on market-based measures, neglect of uncertainty, and inadequate treatment of time. We then propose a different approach to compensation, based on insights from the decision sciences and structured decision making. Using case-study examples, we discuss how the proposed approach might address common sources of cultural loss and, in a concluding section, summarize some of the implications for compensation agreements and for environmental management practices.