Towards model-informed precision dosing of piperacillin: multicenter systematic external evaluation of pharmacokinetic models in critically ill adults with a focus on Bayesian forecasting.

PURPOSE: Inadequate piperacillin (PIP) exposure in intensive care unit (ICU) patients threatens therapeutic success. Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) might be promising to individualize dosing; however, the transferability of published models to external populations is uncertain. This study aimed to externally evaluate the available PIP population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models. METHODS: A multicenter dataset of 561 ICU patients (11 centers/3654 concentrations) was used for the evaluation of 24 identified models. Model performance was investigated for a priori (A) predictions, i.e., considering dosing records and patient characteristics only, and for Bayesian forecasting, i.e., additionally including the first (B1) or first and second (B2) therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) samples per patient. Median relative prediction error (MPE) [%] and median absolute relative prediction error (MAPE) [%] were calculated to quantify accuracy and precision. RESULTS: The evaluation revealed a large inter-model variability (A: MPE - 135.6-78.3% and MAPE 35.7-135.6%). Integration of TDM data improved all model predictions (B1/B2 relative improvement vs. A: |MPE|median_all_models 45.1/67.5%; MAPEmedian_all_models 29/39%). The model by Kim et al. was identified to be most appropriate for the total dataset (A/B1/B2: MPE - 9.8/- 5.9/- 0.9%; MAPE 37/27.3/23.7%), Udy et al. performed best in patients receiving intermittent infusion, and Klastrup et al. best predicted patients receiving continuous infusion. Additional evaluations stratified by sex and renal replacement therapy revealed further promising models. CONCLUSION: The predictive performance of published PIP models in ICU patients varied considerably, highlighting the relevance of appropriate model selection for MIPD. Our differentiated external evaluation identified specific models suitable for clinical use, especially in combination with TDM.

Systematic Evaluation of Pharmacokinetic Models for Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Meropenem in Critically Ill Patients Undergoing Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy.

The altered pharmacokinetics of renally cleared drugs such as meropenem in critically ill patients receiving continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) might impact target attainment. Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) is applied to individualize meropenem dosing. However, most population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models developed to date have not yet been evaluated for MIPD. Eight PopPK models based on adult CRRT patients were identified in a systematic literature research and encoded in NONMEM 7.4. A data set of 73 CRRT patients from two different study centers was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the models using simulation and prediction-based diagnostics for i) a priori dosing based on patient characteristics only and ii) Bayesian dosing by including the first measured trough concentration. Median prediction error (MPE) for accuracy within |20%| (95% confidence intervals including zero) and median absolute prediction error (MAPE) for precision ≤ 30% were considered clinically acceptable. For a priori dosing, most models (n = 5) showed accuracy and precision MPE within |20%| and MAPE <35%. The integration of the first measured meropenem concentration improved the predictive performance of all models (median MAPE decreased from 35.4 to 25.0%; median MPE decreased from 21.8 to 4.6%). The best predictive performance for intermittent infusion was observed for the O'Jeanson model, including residual diuresis as covariate (a priori and Bayesian dosing MPE within |2%|, MAPE <30%). Our study revealed the O'Jeanson model as the best-predicting model for intermittent infusion. However, most of the selected PopPK models are suitable for MIPD in CRRT patients when one therapeutic drug monitoring sample is available.