Different approaches to the analysis of causes of death during the COVID-19 epidemic.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on causes of mortality through multiple methodological approaches. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The causes of mortality in the Veneto region (Italy) during the first epidemic wave, March-April 2020, were compared with the corresponding months of the previous two years. Both the underlying cause of death (UCOD), and all diseases reported in the death certificate (multiple causes of death) were investigated; a further analysis was carried out through a simulation where the UCOD was selected after substituting ICD-10 codes for COVID with unspecified pneumonia. RESULTS: Overall 10,222 deaths were registered in March-April 2020, corresponding to a 24% increase compared to the previous two years. COVID-19 was mentioned in 1,444 certificates, and selected as the UCOD in 1,207 deaths. Based on the UCOD, the increases in mortality were observed for COVID and related respiratory conditions, diabetes mellitus, hypertensive heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and ill-defined causes. Multiple causes of death and the simulation analysis demonstrated further increases in mortality related to dementia/Alzheimer and chronic lower respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: This first report demonstrates an increase of several causes of death during the pandemic, underlying the need of a continuous surveillance of mortality records through different analytic strategies.

Excess liver-related mortality among people with AIDS compared to the general population: an Italian nationwide cohort study using multiple causes of death.

OBJECTIVES: Liver diseases have become a leading cause of death among people with AIDS (PWA). This study aimed to investigate whether PWA experienced excess mortality related to liver diseases as compared to the general population (non-PWA), using a multiple cause of death (MCoD; i.e. all conditions reported on death certificates) approach. METHODS: A population-based, nationwide, retrospective cohort study was conducted among Italian people, aged 15-74 years, who had been diagnosed with AIDS since 2006. Date of death and MCoD data were retrieved, up to December 2015, by individual record linkage with national mortality data. Sex- and age-standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated by dividing the observed number of deaths related to a specific condition among PWA to the expected number, based on non-PWA mortality rates. RESULTS: Among 7912 PWA (34 184 person-years), 2076 deaths occurred. The number of death certificates reporting liver diseases among MCoDs was 583 (28.1%), including 382 (18.4%) reporting viral hepatitis, 370 (17.8%) reporting nonviral liver diseases, and 41 (2.0%) reporting liver cancers. The corresponding SMRs were 40.4 (95% CI 37.2-43.8) for all liver diseases, 131.1 (95% CI 118.3-145.0) for viral hepatitis, 29.9 (95% CI 27.0-33.1) for nonviral liver diseases, and 11.2 (95% CI 8.1-15.3) for liver cancers. Particularly elevated SMRs emerged among PWA aged 15-49 years and those infected by injecting drug use. CONCLUSIONS: The high excess liver-related mortality observed among PWA warrants preventive actions to limit the burden of viral hepatitis coinfections, alcohol abuse, and metabolic disorders, especially among younger PWA and injecting drug users.