Comparing mortality risk reduction, life expectancy gains, and probability of achieving full life span, as alternatives for presenting CVD mortality risk reduction: A discrete choice study of framing risk and health behaviour change.

The growing rate of obesity has recently required governments to divert considerable resources in the promotion of healthy lifestyles. We explored the relative effectiveness in inducing healthy behaviour change of three different communication strategies about the benefits of an intervention that reduces the mortality risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and encourages respondents to embrace healthier lifestyles. We designed a Discrete Choice Experiments questionnaire to analyse the trade-off between lifestyles, defined in terms of diet and exercise, and reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk. We set three ways of framing an identical benefit: (A) as a reduction in mortality risk from cardiovascular disease, (B) as an increase in months of life expectancy, and (C) as an increase in the probability of reaching an individual's full lifespan. The experiment was tailored for each subject in the sample according to his/her individual's baseline information on diet and physical activity. During the period February 2010-July 2011, we interviewed 1008 individuals in Northern Ireland, split randomly into three samples for the three CVD risk reduction frames. Considering the models' goodness of fit and significance, we conclude that the most effective way of communicating these CVD health benefits is using an increase in life expectancy, since with this frame individuals are more inclined to state that they would change to a healthier lifestyle.

Applying Health Locus of Control and Latent Class Modelling to food and physical activity choices affecting CVD risk.

Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: "internal control", corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; "control by powerful others", whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and "chance control", according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40-65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region.

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks.

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programmes, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals' baseline choices. A "fat screener" module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

The role of regret minimisation in lifestyle choices affecting the risk of coronary heart disease.

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimisation (RRM) to the field of health economics. The RRM is a regret-based model that explores a driver of choice different from the traditional utility-based Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). The RRM approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimise their regret-regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. Analysing data from a discrete choice experiment on diet, physical activity and risk of a fatal heart attack in the next ten years administered to a sample of the Northern Ireland population, we find that the combined use of RUM and RRM models offer additional information, providing useful behavioural insights for better informed policy appraisal.