Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis).

The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter "endo-exogenous") models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.

Addressing Detection Uncertainty in Bombus affinis (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Surveys Can Improve Inferences Made From Monitoring.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service developed national guidelines to track species recovery of the endangered rusty patched bumble bee [Bombus affinis Cresson (Hymenoptera: Apidae)] and to investigate changes in species occupancy across space and time. As with other native bee monitoring efforts, managers have specifically acknowledged the need to address species detection uncertainty and determine the sampling effort required to infer species absence within sites. We used single-season, single-species occupancy models fit to field data collected in four states to estimate imperfect detection of B. affinis and to determine the survey effort required to achieve high confidence of species detection. Our analysis revealed a precipitous, seasonal, decline in B. affinis detection probability throughout the July through September sampling window in 2021. We estimated that six, 30-min surveys conducted in early July are required to achieve a 95% cumulative detection probability, whereas >10 surveys would be required in early August to achieve the same level of confidence. Our analysis also showed B. affinis was less likely to be detected during hot and humid days and at patches of reduced habitat quality. Bombus affinis was frequently observed on Monarda fistulosa (Lamiales: Lamiaceae), followed by [Pycnanthemum virginianum Rob. and Fernald (Lamiales: Lamiaceae)], Eutrochium maculatum Lamont (Asterales: Asteraceae), and Veronicastrum virginicum Farw. (Lamiales: Plantaginaceae). Although our research is focused on B. affinis, it is relevant for monitoring other bumble bees of conservation concern, such as B. occidentalis Greene (Hymenoptera: Apidae) and B. terricola Kirby (Hymenoptera: Apidae) for which monitoring efforts have been recently initiated and occupancy is a variable of conservation interest.

Intact landscape promotes gene flow and low genetic structuring in the threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake.

Genetic structuring of wild populations is dependent on environmental, ecological, and life-history factors. The specific role environmental context plays in genetic structuring is important to conservation practitioners working with rare species across areas with varying degrees of fragmentation. We investigated fine-scale genetic patterns of the federally threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus) on a relatively undisturbed island in northern Michigan, USA. This species often persists in habitat islands throughout much of its distribution due to extensive habitat loss and distance-limited dispersal. We found that the entire island population exhibited weak genetic structuring with spatially segregated variation in effective migration and genetic diversity. The low level of genetic structuring contrasts with previous studies in the southern part of the species' range at comparable fine scales (~7 km), in which much higher levels of structuring were documented. The island population's genetic structuring more closely resembles that of populations from Ontario, Canada, that occupy similarly intact habitats. Intrapopulation variation in effective migration and genetic diversity likely corresponds to the presence of large inland lakes acting as barriers and more human activity in the southern portion of the island. The observed genetic structuring in this intact landscape suggests that the Eastern Massasauga is capable of sufficient interpatch movements to reduce overall genetic structuring and colonize new habitats. Landscape mosaics with multiple habitat patches and localized barriers (e.g., large water bodies or roads) will promote gene flow and natural colonization for this declining species.

Changes in conservation value from grasslands to savannas to forests: How a temperate canopy cover gradient affects butterfly community composition.

Temperate savannas and grasslands are globally threatened. In the Midwest United States of America (USA), for example, oak savannas persist today at a small percentage of recent historic coverage. Therefore, restoration of habitats of low and intermediate canopy cover is a landscape conservation priority that often emphasizes returning tree density to a savanna-like target value. Understanding how animal species react to such changes in vegetation structure is important for assessing the value of these restoration plans. We examined how butterfly community attributes in northwest Indiana USA, including community composition, richness, and abundance responded to a grassland-to-forest gradient of canopy cover. Butterfly community composition under intermediate canopy cover differed significantly from community composition in the most open or closed-canopy habitats. Composition of the plant community in flower was a significant predictor of three assessed attributes of the butterfly community-composition, richness, and abundance. Phenology, expressed as day-of-the-year, was also a strong predictor of these butterfly community attributes. Few butterfly species were habitat specialists as adults although canopy cover was a more important predictor of adult community composition than of richness or abundance of butterflies. Therefore, adult butterfly community differences along the canopy cover gradient were less about butterfly communities filled with habitat specialists for different canopy-defined habitats and more about gradual changes in community composition along this gradient. Overall, butterfly community richness was predicted to peak at about 34% canopy cover, butterfly abundance at about 53% canopy cover, community conservation value at about 59% canopy cover, and a combination of desirable conservation attributes-high diversity, high abundance, and high conservation value-was predicted to reach a peak of co-occurrence at about 67% canopy cover suggesting that habitats of intermediate canopy cover might be particularly effective for butterfly conservation in this region.

A call to insect scientists: challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change.

As climate change moves insect systems into uncharted territory, more knowledge about insect dynamics and the factors that drive them could enable us to better manage and conserve insect communities. Climate change may also require us to revisit insect management goals and strategies and lead to a new kind of scientific engagement in management decision-making. Here we make five key points about the role of insect science in aiding and crafting management decisions, and we illustrate those points with the monarch butterfly and the Karner blue butterfly, two species undergoing considerable change and facing new management dilemmas. Insect biology has a strong history of engagement in applied problems, and as the impacts of climate change increase, a reimagined ethic of entomology in service of broader society may emerge. We hope to motivate insect biologists to contribute time and effort toward solving the challenges of climate change.

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Geographic coincidence of richness, mass, conservation value, and response to climate of U.S. land birds.

Distributional patterns across the United States of five avian community breeding-season characteristics--community biomass, richness, constituent species' vulnerability to extirpation, percentage of constituent species' global abundance present in the community (conservation index, CI), and the community's position along the ecological gradient underlying species composition (principal curve ordination score, PC--were described, their covariation was analyzed, and projected effects of climate change on the characteristics and their covariation were modeled. Higher values of biomass, richness, and CI were generally preferred from a conservation perspective. However, higher values of these characteristics often did not coincide geographically; thus regions of the United States would differ in their value for conservation depending on which characteristic was chosen for setting conservation priorities. For instance, correlation patterns between characteristics differed among Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Among the five characteristics, community richness and the ecological gradient underlying community composition (PC) had the highest correlations with longitude, with richness declining from east to west across the contiguous United States. The ecological gradient underlying composition exhibited a demarcation near the 100th meridian, separating the contiguous United States grossly into two similar-sized avian ecological provinces. The combined score (CS), a measure of species' threat of decline or extirpation, exhibited the strongest latitudinal pattern, declining from south to north. Over -75% of the lower United States, projected changes in June temperature and precipitation to year 2080 were associated with decreased averaged values of richness, biomass, and CI, implying decreased conservation value for birds. The two ecological provinces demarcated near the 100th meridian diverged from each other, with projected changes in June temperatures and precipitation from the year 2000 to 2080 suggesting increased ecological dissimilarity between the eastern and western halves of the lower United States with changing climate. Anticipated climate-related changes in the five characteristics by 2080 were more weakly correlated with latitude or longitude then the responses themselves, indicating less distinct geographic patterns of characteristic change than in the characteristics themselves. Climate changes projected for 2080 included geographic shifts in avian biomass, CS, and PC values, a moderate overall decline in CI, and general decline in species richness per site.

Floral and nesting resources, habitat structure, and fire influence bee distribution across an open-forest gradient.

Given bees' central effect on vegetation communities, it is important to understand how and why bee distributions vary across ecological gradients. We examined how plant community composition, plant diversity, nesting suitability, canopy cover, land use, and fire history affected bee distribution across an open-forest gradient in northwest Indiana, USA, a gradient similar to the historic Midwest United States landscape mosaic. When considered with the other predictors, plant community composition was not a significant predictor of bee community composition. Bee abundance was negatively related to canopy cover and positively to recent fire frequency, bee richness was positively related to plant richness and abundance of potential nesting resources, and bee community composition was significantly related to plant richness, soil characteristics potentially related to nesting suitability, and canopy cover. Thus, bee abundance was predicted by a different set of environmental characteristics than was bee species richness, and bee community composition was predicted, in large part, by a combination of the significant predictors of bee abundance and richness. Differences in bee community composition along the woody vegetation gradient were correlated with relative abundance of oligolectic, or diet specialist, bees. Because oligoleges were rarer than diet generalists and were associated with open habitats, their populations may be especially affected by degradation of open habitats. More habitat-specialist bees were documented for open and forest/scrub habitats than for savanna/woodland habitats, consistent with bees responding to habitats of intermediate woody vegetation density, such as savannas, as ecotones rather than as distinct habitat types. Similarity of bee community composition, similarity of bee abundance, and similarity of bee richness between sites were not significantly related to proximity of sites to each other. Nestedness analysis indicated that species composition in species-poor sites was not merely a subset of species composition at richer sites. The lack of significant proximity or nestedness effects suggests that factors at a small spatial scale strongly influence bees' use of sites. The findings indicate that patterns of plant diversity, nesting resource availability, recent fire, and habitat shading, present at the scale of a few hundred meters, are key determinants of bee community patterns in the mosaic open-savanna-forest landscape.

The effect of canopy cover and seasonal change on host plant quality for the endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeidesmelissasamuelis).

Larvae of the Karner blue butterfly, Lycaeidesmelissasamuelis, feed solely on wild lupine, Lupinusperennis, from the emergence to summer senescence of the plant. Wild lupine is most abundant in open areas but Karner blue females oviposit more frequently on lupines growing in moderate shade. Can differences in lupine quality between open and shaded areas help explain this disparity in resource use? Furthermore, many lupines are senescent before the second larval brood completes development. How does lupine senescence affect larval growth? We addressed these questions by measuring growth rates of larvae fed lupines of different phenological stages and lupines growing under different shade conditions. The habitat conditions under which lupines grew and plant phenological stage did not generally affect final larval or pupal weight but did significantly affect duration of the larval period. Duration was shortest for larvae fed leaves from flowering lupines and was negatively correlated with leaf nitrogen concentration. Ovipositing in areas of moderate shade should increase␣second-brood larval exposure to flowering lupines. In addition, larval growth was significantly faster on shade-grown lupines that were in seed than on similar sun-grown lupines. These are possible advantages of the higher-than-expected oviposition rate on shade-grown lupines. Given the canopy-related trade-off between lupine␣abundance and quality, maintenance of canopy heterogeneity is an important conservation management goal. Larvae were also fed leaves growing in poor soil conditions and leaves with mildew infection. These and other feeding treatments that we anticipated would inhibit larval growth often did not. In particular, ant-tended larvae exhibited the highest weight gain per amount of lupine eaten and a relatively fast growth rate. This represents an advantage of ant tending to Karner blue larvae.