Assessing the contribution of marine protected areas to the trophic functioning of ecosystems: a model for the Banc d'Arguin and the Mauritanian shelf.

Most modelling studies addressed the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPA) for fisheries sustainability through single species approach. Only a few models analysed the potential benefits of MPAs at the ecosystem level, estimating the potential export of fish biomass from the reserve or analysing the trophic relationships between organisms inside and outside the MPA. Here, we propose to use food web models to assess the contribution of a MPA to the trophic functioning of a larger ecosystem. This approach is applied to the Banc d'Arguin National Park, a large MPA located on the Mauritanian shelf. The ecosystem was modeled using Ecopath with Ecosim, a model that accounts for fisheries, food web structure, and some aspects of the spatial distribution of species, for the period 1991-2006. Gaps in knowledge and uncertainty were taken into account by building three different models. Results showed that the Banc d'Arguin contributes about 9 to 13% to the total consumption, is supporting about 23% of the total production and 18% of the total catch of the Mauritanian shelf ecosystem, and up to 50% for coastal fish. Of the 29 exploited groups, 15 depend on the Banc for more than 30% of their direct or indirect consumptions. Between 1991 and 2006, the fishing pressure increased leading to a decrease in biomass and the catch of high trophic levels, confirming their overall overexploitation. Ecosim simulations showed that adding a new fleet in the Banc d'Arguin would have large impacts on the species with a high reliance on the Banc for food, resulting in a 23% decrease in the current outside MPA catches. We conclude on the usefulness of food web models to assess MPAs contribution to larger ecosystem functioning.

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century.

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

Towards sustainability in world fisheries.

Fisheries have rarely been 'sustainable'. Rather, fishing has induced serial depletions, long masked by improved technology, geographic expansion and exploitation of previously spurned species lower in the food web. With global catches declining since the late 1980s, continuation of present trends will lead to supply shortfall, for which aquaculture cannot be expected to compensate, and may well exacerbate. Reducing fishing capacity to appropriate levels will require strong reductions of subsidies. Zoning the oceans into unfished marine reserves and areas with limited levels of fishing effort would allow sustainable fisheries, based on resources embedded in functional, diverse ecosystems.